Political Posts

[Dalal.Holdings]

20 hours ago, Sweet said:

Be careful what you wish for, because I’m fairly sure Europe can handle Russia without the US if they really needs to.  I’m less sure that the US can handle China without the Europeans.  This is the wrong era to be fracturing long standing alliances.

Europe cannot effectively project power in its own backyard, let alone the Pacific. The allies that matter to the U.S. when it comes to China are in the Quad (Japan, India, Australia). I would add S Korea to that as well. Japan's Takaichi is already following the trend of becoming more assertive.

 

As far as Europe, it's in America's interest to get Europeans to stand up and take charge for securing their continent. To be more economically and militarily capable as these are close, long term allies of the U.S. and we can't have them become lazy, unarmed, and dependent on China. The fact that America still (we are nearly 12 years out from Russia invading Crimea) plays the dominant role in supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia is a disgrace for Europe. An utter embarrassment.

 

Edited December 5, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Europe cannot effectively project power in its own backyard, let alone the Pacific. The allies that matter to the U.S. when it comes to China are in the Quad (Japan, India, Australia). I would add S Korea to that as well. Japan's Takaichi is already following the trend of becoming more assertive.

 

As far as Europe, it's in America's interest to get Europeans to stand up and take charge for securing their continent. To be more economically and militarily capable as these are close, long term allies of the U.S. and we can't have them become lazy, unarmed, and dependent on China. The fact that America still (we are nearly 12 years out from Russia invading Crimea) plays the dominant role in supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia is a disgrace for Europe. An utter embarrassment.

 

Europe has 8 aircraft carriers, 1.6 million people in armies, thousands of tanks and aircraft.  Additionally, and despite the best efforts of their retard politicians, it retains an enormous industrial base.  This is with Europe doing the very bare minimum on defence for the better part of 40 years.

 

India, Japan and Australia do not have an alliance anything like NATO.  There is no common defence clause that means that if the US get attacked by China that India has to join in.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

16 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Europe has 8 aircraft carriers, 1.6 million people in armies, thousands of tanks and aircraft.  Additionally, and despite the best efforts of their retard politicians, it retains an enormous industrial base.  This is with Europe doing the very bare minimum on defence for the better part of 40 years.

 

India, Japan and Australia do not have an alliance anything like NATO.  There is no common defence clause that means that if the US get attacked by China that India has to join in.

 

I just use Occam's razor: see how Europe has responded to paper tiger Russia in its own backyard to know how "capable" European forces are...add to that the fact that China is much stronger than Russia and further away...

 

I do hope that changes and Europe becomes much more independent and capable (I am invested accordingly)

[Gregmal]

All I know is that all those stupid inflation predications and expert forecasts have fallen flat on their faces…

[Spekulatius]

Australia is already on the back burner (see the submarine fiasco) and I think its

apparent that would trade Taiwan in heartbeat for any perceived deal he could get from  Xi Jinping.

 

Do you really think that Trump will put US soldiers on the line if China grabs Taiwan?  I think not.

 

China is careful with what they are doing but if they feel confident enough about their power and that Trump will Taco out Taiwan is up for grabs.

 

Even if they just destroy the semiconductor factories in Taiwan,  it’s a win for them because now the West lost access to the most advanced chip manufacturing while they still have whatever they developed themselves. They probably close about 5 years worth of technological gap that way.

Edited December 5, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

48 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Australia is already on the back burner (see the submarine fiasco) and I think its

apparent that would trade Taiwan in heartbeat for any perceived deal he could get from  Xi Jinping.

 

Do you really think that Trump will put US soldiers on the line if China grabs Taiwan?  I think not.

 

China is careful with what they are doing but if they feel confident enough about their power and that Trump will Taco out Taiwan is up for grabs.

 

Even if they just destroy the semiconductor factories in Taiwan,  it’s a win for them because now the West lost access to the most advanced chip manufacturing while they still have whatever they developed themselves. They probably close about 5 years worth of technological gap that way.

 

I think a few years from now China taking Taiwan won't be a big deal for the U.S. (once the fabs are built and running). I think the concern is what happens after:

 

When Taiwan is part of China, China has now breached the First Island Chain. In that situation, the U.S. would like a much stronger Japan, Korea, Philippines, Aussie/Indian navies, etc to serve as regional counterweights & keep South China Sea/other shipping lanes open & secure. So it is in U.S. interests that its allies bulk up. Same with Europe. We need our allies to pull their own weights.

 

Edit: and I am not sure what you mean about Australia: looks like the AUKUS sub deal will continue...

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/australia-says-it-has-received-aukus-submarine-review-us-2025-12-04/

 

Edited December 5, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[nsx5200]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Do you really think that Trump will put US soldiers on the line if China grabs Taiwan?  I think not.

IMHO, I don't think Trump really care if he puts people at risk for his own personal gain.  Just look at his actions during J6, even when the people around him urged him to take action.

 

There seem to be enough China hawks in the administration and legislation that act as some counter balance to that tendency.  Based on the actions to beef up forces in the Pacific, it seems like a fair assessment.

 

Quote

Prompt: "is US reducing exercise with the pacific partners"

AI Overview: "No, the U.S. is not reducing military exercises with Pacific partners; rather, recent reports from 2024-2025 show an increase in scale, complexity, and frequency, with massive multinational drills like REFORPAC 2025, RIMPAC 2024, and Malabar 2025, emphasizing integrated defense, readiness against China, and strengthening alliances for a free and open Indo-Pacific."

 

It's possible that China/CCP can woo Trump enough to give up Taiwan during his upcoming visit to China.  If China/CCP want to achieve their objective, they should break out Olympic-like shows for Trump.  But it would make a stark contrast against the economic suffering that the Chinese people are currently undergoing, thus increase the chances for a coup/uprising in the future.  Those pesky second-order effects...

[Spekulatius]

Well here is the national security policy from the horses mouth. A must read for anyone interested:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

 

FWIW, this document specifically mentions defending the first island chain.

Edited December 6, 2025 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Well here is the national security policy from the horses mouth. A must read for anyone interested:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

 

FWIW, this document specifically mentions defending the first island chain.

 

Thank you for posting the document. 

 

The Europeans should read it closely to understand the position of the USA.

 

And it certainly lays out the importance of protecting Taiwan.

Edited December 6, 2025 by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well here is the national security policy from the horses mouth. A must read for anyone interested:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

 

FWIW, this document specifically mentions defending the first island chain.

This document tells yo7 lore about who wrote it then what is written about (like most documents).

 

Ukraine is just a side show. Close chapter and move on. Russia is not a real threat.

 

1) NATO is mentioned just a few times in this document. It sure does not seem like a core pillar of the US security policy. The few mention indicate commitment to 5% GDP defense spent but the language implicates  that the US is exempt from this commitment.

 

2) Monroe doctrine is back and the Trump corollary means that he wants to create a shield wall of allies to absorb any untoward blows to the US hegemony first.

 

1) Take away for Europeans/Japan/Australia/Korea:

-  NATO is dead. Become independent military and politically or become an US corollary vassal state

 

 

2) Take away for adversary:

-  Nuke up (the main lesson from Ukraine conflict anyways).

 

3) China specifically:

- Games is on. You are the target.

 

Probably also a good idea for Europe to Nuke up as well.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

The real message is simply: the post-ww2 geopolitical framework is dead. It’s been dead, but some places like Europe slow to get it.

 

The main reason? It’s the rise of China, its inability to become a consumption driven economy or more market oriented (thx to Xi) and insistence on hoarding precious resources and dominating critical industries over other countries. Lots of unfair trade practices, IP theft, subsidizing key industries, etc.

 

CCP operates with long term strategic plans and this is Trump’s version of that.

 

Monroe corollary is counter to China Belt and Road and similar policies. Taking away chinese control of ports near panama canal important part of that.

 

Kim jong un learned the lesson about nukes long ago. Don’t think this changes anything about that. If anything, Trump’s B2 bomber raid on Iran this summer should serve as some disincentive to trying to go nuclear. Europe has enough nukes and should probably work on fielding a proper military first.

And I like the approach to the Middle East: don’t try to impose our values on them.

The people who whined about America meddling in affairs of others for decades should be happy. Of course, they won’t be because America gets criticized whether it does or doesn’t intervene.

Edited December 6, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spekulatius]

Interesting times when you can get chased by masked ICE officers without warrant  because you look like an immigrant.

 

[Mephistopheles]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting times when you can get chased by masked ICE officers without warrant  because you look like an immigrant.

 

Yea.

 

Definitely not a dictator:

 

 

[cubsfan]

Oh man, now you guys are going to tell us the Trump is deporting American citizens again...

[Charlie]

Interesting article from Barron´s about U.S. health care:

 

The Most Important Industry Isn’t AI. It’s Healthcare.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/healthcare-employment-important-for-economy-aca-subsidies-5d307f93?mod=past_editions

 

"Three major healthcare supports are at risk. The enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, expanded under the American Rescue Plan, are scheduled to expire at the end of the year. If they lapse, premiums for millions could jump by hundreds of dollars a month. Millions could lose coverage entirely. Rising uninsured rates increase uncompensated-care burdens for hospitals, strain budgets, slow hiring, and weaken regional growth.

In addition, Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program enrollment has already fallen sharply as states unwind Covid-19-era continuous-coverage rules. From March 2023 to July 2025, more than 17 million people lost coverage. Hospitals can’t absorb that level of uncompensated care without cutting services or closing outright. More than 700 rural hospitals are currently at risk of closing. And when a hospital closes, a regional economy loses one of its few recession-proof anchors.

 

Finally, the healthcare workforce, already strained by shortages of nurses, medical assistants, mental health counselors, and clinical lab workers, faces an uncertain federal funding landscape. President Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal year 2026 budget includes over $400 million in cuts to workforce programs that expand the supply of nurses, physicians, behavioral health specialists, and other healthcare workers. Without stable investments in training and education, health systems can’t staff new units, expand services, or meet rising demand. A recession-proof sector becomes recession sensitive.

If policymakers allow Medicaid funding to erode, ACA subsidies to expire, and the health workforce pipeline to thin, they will weaken the very sector that has kept the economy stable through every crisis of the 21st century. No amount of AI-driven equity exuberance will be enough to keep the real economy from feeling the shock."

 

Sounds like Trump is making U.S. healthcare great again. 

 

Davita shares are down about 40%

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2025 by Charlie

[Spekulatius]

On 12/4/2025 at 2:13 PM, Sweet said:

Be careful what you wish for, because I’m fairly sure Europe can handle Russia without the US if they really needs to.  I’m less sure that the US can handle China without the Europeans.  This is the wrong era to be fracturing long standing alliances.

This is true if Europe acts as unified body. This is not true Europe acts as 27 different countries. Putin and to some extend Trump try to break up Europe into individual countries as they are easier to deal with in a fragmented state. If Europe acts as unity (politically, economically and militarily) it can counter Putin and Trump. That why Putin and Trump have so much contempt for the EU.

[cubsfan]

Europe has figure out it's own problems:

 

Do they want to act unified or not?

 

Are they serious about the EU, but not a united defense or not?

 

Getting Europe to make unified decisions about their own defense is like herding cats. The US can sympathize with this difficulty, as we have 50 states that to some extent control some of their destiny.  However, in the end, the actual citizens decide where the bulk of critical decision making power about defense and foreign policy resides - with the citizens dually elected Chief Executive - President Trump.

Edited December 6, 2025 by cubsfan

[Dalal.Holdings]

Look at the UK's negotiations with EU on being part of SAFE defense procurement--talks broke down and UK is out.

 

Look at the bickering between France and Germany on the 6th gen fighter program...they might break up.

 

Look at Spain which continues to hold out on matching NATO spending goals.

 

If there is one thing that has never change in Europe's thousands of years of history, it's the constant differences among peoples.
 

EU looks like a failed experiment in that context and Trump/Vance/Elon think it's better if they operate as separate sovereign states than under guise of EU which is nothing more than an unelected (and unaccountable) layer of governance and has drowned the continent in a sea of regulations.

 

EU's authority should be downgraded IMO severely and member states take back more sovereignty OR Europe should completely federalize to a single republic like the U.S... I don't think this middle ground is serving Europeans well and is reminiscent of the failed Articles of Confederation in the U.S.

[LC]

12 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Oh man, now you guys are going to tell us the Trump is deporting American citizens again...

 

Well if it's no big deal, why don't you throw your info in and we can all see how your post count drops off for a few weeks   

 

https://www.ice.gov/webform/ice-tip-form

 

Might need an exception from Cloudflare for posting from Bolivia!

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Europe has figure out it's own problems:

 

Do they want to act unified or not?

 

Are they serious about the EU, but not a united defense or not?

 

Getting Europe to make unified decisions about their own defense is like herding cats. The US can sympathize with this difficulty, as we have 50 states that to some extent control some of their destiny.  However, in the end, the actual citizens decide where the bulk of critical decision making power about defense and foreign policy resides - with the citizens dually elected Chief Executive - President Trump.

That’s correct and for once I agree. I think the USA is doing Europeans a favor at this point in the long run by letting them figure it out on their own. Trump should stop “negotiating”with Putin. He does not have a significant stake in the outcome.

[John Hjorth]

12 hours ago, LC said:

Well if it's no big deal, why don't you throw your info in and we can all see how your post count drops off for a few weeks   

 

https://www.ice.gov/webform/ice-tip-form

 

Might need an exception from Cloudflare for posting from Bolivia!

 

@LC,

 

I diden't realize before that you had it in you, to be such a naughty boy. To me personally, well below your usual posting standards, not just to call it a punch under Mikes [ @cubsfans] belt. To me personally, also a not well disguised [advanced?] form of name calling.

 

-Or do you just happen to know anything or something about Mikes [ @cubsfans ] actual citizenship [or citizenships] with certainty, that I do not?

 

I know that Mike is pretty robust and solid, and that he for sure can reply for himself, if he wants to do so.

 

It's just not forthcoming for constructive and reason-based discussion here in this topic on CofB&F.

[LC]

No nothing personal meant by it- moreso that it is easy to criticize something (the royal) you has no experience with. 
 

So I feel if someone thinks it’s OK to “poke fun” at Americans being illegally kidnapped and deported by our own government, then they should be prepared for a similarly low-blow response. 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you for the explanation and elaboration, @LC, 'lost in translation', by my reading of the topic as written, with so many mental [irony] layers, that I as a Northern European citizen simply miss and don't grasp.

 

Much appreciated, actually. All good.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Thank you for the explanation and elaboration, @LC, 'lost in translation', by my reading of the topic as written, with so many mental [irony] layers, that I as a Northern European citizen simply miss and don't grasp.

 

Much appreciated, actually. All good.

 

@John Hjorth It's a mere flesh wound John. Good old @LC is quite skilled at "getting my goat", as they say in America. I almost always get a laugh out of LC and his sense of humor.

 

I think it's much an American thing, where we are able to debate and insult each other at the same time.  

 

If I didn't know better, I'd almost think @LC is the voice behind Triumph the Insult Comic Dog: 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2025 by cubsfan

[LC]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

@John Hjorth It's a mere flesh wound John. Good old @LC is quite skilled at "getting my goat", as they say in America. I almost always get a laugh out of LC and his sense of humor.

 

I think it's much an American thing, where we are able to debate and insult each other at the same time.  

 

If I didn't know better, I'd almost think @LC is the voice behind Triumph the Insult Comic Dog: 

 

 

cubs, this is the best compliment I’ve been paid in a while! You can stay!!

 

but I know (and hope) you took no personal offense…it’s important to have both sides of the argument. Not only do I appreciate you and your opinions, but also your investment commentary. I’ve made good $$ on Davita due in large part to your commentary- way more important than our conflicting musings about politics!

 

and also- fair play @John Hjorth for calling out something you disagree with! Always better to nip a problem in the bud…I wish our collective politicians did the same!

Edited December 7, 2025 by LC