Political Posts

[cubsfan]

32 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I think that process has already begun...with the whole US wont give Ukraine weapons anymore...but we'll sell weapons to the Europeans to give to them. 

 

Alaska, DC Summit & potential trilat (which will when all is said and done amount to a hill beans) will be his off ramp.....Ukraine is an impossible conundrum for the West....we care but not quite enough to meaningfully affect the final inevitable outcome on the battlefield.

 

Boris Johnson & Joe Biden have a lot to answer for.....the Istanbul peace talks was the optimal off ramp for Ukraine...and the two idiots....one who'd lost his marbles (Biden) and the other with no marbles to begin with (Johnson) encouraged Zelensky to press forward instead to defeat Russia on the battlefield. 

 

I'm a little more optomistic than you, but the conundrum, as you put it, is significant.

BTW - that's a great summary of the 2022 meeting. They totally blew it.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

intractable.

 

@Spekulatius is correct re: airpower....but again....everybody cares enough about Ukraine to send money & good vibes....but nobody quite cares enough to have their military assets engage directly in bilateral way with a nuclear power like Russia....nobody can quite seems to bring to themselves to that escalatory step because they know its crossing a rubicon of sorts....a proxy war is one thing....this would be quite another and I havent seen a credible comment from any coalition of the willing member that suggest their airforce pilots would drop bombs on Russian soldiers.

This is correct. Biden didn’t want to go down that route, Trump won’t and the European don’t push for it either. It’s a way to win against Putin and that was the question. A credible threat to act like it might work but Putin most likely will call the card and then the only way forward is to do what you said you are going to do. 

 

Trump already has done quite a few  useless ultimatums (50 day, secondary sanctions, even threatened to bomb Moscow) that are all expired with zero consequences, so here we are.

 

Putin has nobody to answer to, so he escalates as he see fits.

 

As for who drops them bombs, I am guessing that Ukrainian pilots could do the job with some training. However, nobody want to hand over F-35 either, The F-16 are 30 year old tech and while they serve a purpose, they can’t take out the Russian air defense without risking to get shot down either. Ukraine would need many of those If we go down that route.

Edited August 21, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, dealraker said:

Cubs you are as naive as your handle suggests.  To me there are some easy predictions as to when, not if, business and stocks don't go the way most- both lovers and haters- of Trump expect.

 

Oooooo!  No he didn't!  Did dealraker just diss the Cubs?

 

Cubs, was this a woke liberal plant?  I believe he's wearing a BLM sweatshirt.  Cheers!

 

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

You're hilarious really. 

 

Keep calling him a dictator and see how far you get in negotiations.

 

Putin is to be feared, and not disrespected if you wish to end the war. 

Biden and the chumps in Europe already disrespected Putin, and so far, 

he has called your bluff and you have a catastrophic outcome - 1.5M casualties.

 

 

 

I don't have a problem with this...he's a world leader, whether you like him or not.  If you are meeting him or negotiating, respect is warranted.  Too bad Trump and his team didn't offer the same to Zelensky on his first visit.

 

But Trump doesn't have to pretend that Putin is his buddy...like when he said "I think he wants to do a deal for me".  Be friendly, but realize the guy will kill Trump happily if it means things are better for him and Russia.  Cheers!

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Oooooo!  No he didn't!  Did dealraker just diss the Cubs?

 

Indeed he did. He has a sharp tongue, old Deal'.

 

But after a 100 year loser streak, the Cubs regain their former glory in 2016.

 

We may be losers, but not quitters !

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Indeed he did. He has a sharp tongue, old Deal'.

 

But after a 100 year loser streak, the Cubs regain their former glory in 2016.

 

We may be losers, but not quitters !

 

True!  My Canucks still haven't won in 55 years.  I cry myself to sleep every June!  Cheers!

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

True!  My Canucks still haven't won in 55 years.  I cry myself to sleep every June!  Cheers!

 

Shit, now I don't feel so bad! I had no idea. Ha!

[cubsfan]

Just now, Spekulatius said:

The US has not won a war since WW2. Prove me wrong.

 

No argument there. Who needs them anyway!

 

Dial up the Luxembourg or somebody else next time...

[Spekulatius]

1 FC Kaiserslautern went to the second league a long time ago, but still found fans even in North Carolina:

 

[Spekulatius]

5 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

No argument there. Who needs them anyway!

 

Dial up the Luxembourg or somebody else next time...

Lichtenstein is the most successful warrior nation there is. They went to war to help out the Swiss a couple hundred years ago (I think in the 17 century )  with 12 men and came back with 13. Or so I have been told.

Edited August 21, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Some interewting  stats on a Russian energy exports:

https://energyandcleanair.org/july-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

[whiskybravo]

7 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I think that it wants is Ukraine not under the West's thumb more than it might want it under its thumb......it's a delicate nuanced balance for Ukraine.....sometimes the correct posture (depending on who's in the Kremlin, or who's the US /EU president) might be to be closer to Russia for a time, sometimes it might be better to lean into the West a bit more......your job though is not to get country caught in the crossfire of great power politics.......sometimes in life that requires that you accept your reality and the constraints it place on you and you skillfully play the poor hand your dealt.....Ukraine has what they call in IR the classic buffer state dilema.....Belarus had it to.....the leadership in Belarus has played both the West and Russia quite skillfully for a couple of decades now...only recently really leaning into their partnership with Russia......the reality....if your a 25 year old male what country would you prefer to live in - current day Belarus or current day Ukraine?.....Lukashenko is no angel......but relative to Zelensky and his pro-West predecessors he got the memo....and between the two who has optimized the health, happiness and prosperity and indeed survival of their nation over the last decade better....the proof is in the pudding as they say......too many people in the realm of international conflict and security get lost in narratives of good and evil.......or caught down rabbit holes of believing every dictator/autocrate is Hitler reincarnated...in the historical record I think people don't quite understand how unusual Hitler was....he was fundamentally a congenital aggressor......appeasement didn't work with him because he was such an unusual character and had his country under a spell.......the lazy heuristic for Putin is this one.....which is quite funny when you just look at the facts around the invasion of Ukraine....as I've pointed out many times on this thread.....Russia entered Ukraine with a military force so small, so tiny that conquering & occupying even the city of Kyiv was beyond its capability............Russia's standing army at home in March 2022 was relatively tiny, its military industrial base limited....this was not Germany & Hitler building a coiled imperial war machine leading up to 1939.....its laughable to hear European leaders speak about the Russian army as some version of the Wehrmacht in 1939 ready to rollver Ukraine on its way to Warsaw and Berlin.......Russia is stuck in the mud in Eastern Ukraine precisely because it really had no expansive territorial aspirations leading up to 2022 because if it did it would have had a large standing army (instead of conscripting prisoners in Moscow jails while borrowing drones from Iran)......its pretty clear now that what Putin/Russia we're looking for was a shock and awe coup-de-dat in Kyiv that would collapse pro-West Zelensky forces and nudge Ukraine's political system away from tilting so aggressively to the west (NATO etc.). I know that isnt the Western narrative but the facts are the facts. Russia's lack of military buildup prior to Feb 2022. The pitifully small ground army invasion that entered Ukraine  in Feb 2022. 

 

https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/news/2022/06/belarus-is-the-only-russian-ally-left-in-europe-what-is-in-it-for-them#:~:text=Play both sides,'

This is a really good take.

[dealraker]

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Indeed he did. He has a sharp tongue, old Deal'.

 

But after a 100 year loser streak, the Cubs regain their former glory in 2016.

 

We may be losers, but not quitters !

My comments are conversation, not as harsh as they may read.  Tongue-in-cheek may describe them.

 

That said, with Cubs' voting - and it must have been an equal obsession with all of them - record?  Hell, I'm just wondering who, that's what type candidate, he'll be voting for in the future?

Edited August 21, 2025 by dealraker

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

My comments are conversation, not as harsh as they may read.  Tongue-in-cheek may describe them.

 

That said, with Cubs' voting - and it must have been an equal obsession with all of them - record?  Hell, I'm just wondering who, that's what type candidate, he'll be voting for in the future?

 

It's always taken as good fun ole deal, as sarcastic as it gets. Nothing more.

If anything, Cubsfans may be perennial losers - we still swing away.

 

The votes likely won't be Dem or RINO - only MAGA.

The Great Colonel Sink might actually approve.

[DooDiligence]

[DooDiligence]

[dealraker]

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

It's always taken as good fun ole deal, as sarcastic as it gets. Nothing more.

If anything, Cubsfans may be perennial losers - we still swing away.

 

The votes likely won't be Dem or RINO - only MAGA.

The Great Colonel Sink might actually approve.

Colonel/General Sink spent a good bit of time in his brief post military life calling attention to non-white male participation in WWII which of course made him about as popular as it would today with MAGA.  His attempts to get recognition for the accurate and hard hitting 333rd Field Artillery Battalion after the war were met with rage from the public.  The 333rd were in the center of the Battle of the Bulge where the Germans over-ran the Allied forces, thus pretty this much wiped out this division, with 11 eventually chased down and tortured/massacred at Wereth.  Bob wanted a memorial and recognition stating they saved his men's lives....but of course that was denied.

 

It took the locals from Wereth to come up with something to honor the massacred 11 from the 333rd.  Tom Hanks pursued making a movie about the 333rd and he requested and evidently used the writings and speeches that Uncle Bob made in his attempts to sell this to investor groups, but for whatever reason it never came about.

 

Sink also profiled the lives of those from the 333rd returning from the war stating in one writing, "What do you do with well-disciplined and accomplished negro men when everyone is threatened by them?"

 

I don't think Uncle Bob would be a Trumper and to be honest with you Cubs given your extreme sensitivity to those not in the power and money grab club I'm surprised that you are.

[whiskybravo]

Seeing ole Dealraker as Cubs says has me feeling nostalgic.  I remember the old yahoo boards with BabyB.  Even then Dealraker was this wise old crotchety source of wisdom.  I assumed pre 9/11 he was already in his 70’s.

 

My oldest brother dropped out of Northwestern business school MBA to make pottery, wife and two kids.  My next brother got his Northwestern degree in math and quickly secured his teaching job to avoid Vietnam.  My third brother dropped out of UCLA a confirmed hippy and move to Mexico City with regular visits to Cuba to immerse himself in his hero Fidel’s ideal society.  Now he’s right wing.  The older two still leftists.

 

Me? I attended a Big Ten university.  Was shocked when I scored the highest freshman midterm chemistry score out of 200 students.  Got an Ivy League medical degree.  Moved to NYC and married a lifelong New Yorker.

 

1998 was an annus horribilus.  Lost both parents.  Did get a 400k inheritance.  I have turned that into 20M by investing in small companies with reasonable prospects of getting bigger, always concentrated positions.  
 

Latched onto International Assets from Leucadia.  Now StoneX.  Used to attend their annual meetings every year, Orlando or New York.  In 2009 my wife and I walked into applause.  Sean O’Connor and Scott Branch came over and told me they were all taking bets as to whether, after the global financial crisis, we would return.

 

Now it’s Joe and Prot.ol and it’s still a lot of fun.  Mid sixties and I wish it could go on forever.

[John Hjorth]

18 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

Jeff [ @DooDiligence ], by the way, have you regained your posting privileges on X, that you lost for mocking the POTUS and trolling? *chuckle*

[dealraker]

39 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

Seeing ole Dealraker as Cubs says has me feeling nostalgic.  I remember the old yahoo boards with BabyB.  Even then Dealraker was this wise old crotchety source of wisdom.  I assumed pre 9/11 he was already in his 70’s.

 

My oldest brother dropped out of Northwestern business school MBA to make pottery, wife and two kids.  My next brother got his Northwestern degree in math and quickly secured his teaching job to avoid Vietnam.  My third brother dropped out of UCLA a confirmed hippy and move to Mexico City with regular visits to Cuba to immerse himself in his hero Fidel’s ideal society.  Now he’s right wing.  The older two still leftists.

 

Me? I attended a Big Ten university.  Was shocked when I scored the highest freshman midterm chemistry score out of 200 students.  Got an Ivy League medical degree.  Moved to NYC and married a lifelong New Yorker.

 

1998 was an annus horribilus.  Lost both parents.  Did get a 400k inheritance.  I have turned that into 20M by investing in small companies with reasonable prospects of getting bigger, always concentrated positions.  
 

Latched onto International Assets from Leucadia.  Now StoneX.  Used to attend their annual meetings every year, Orlando or New York.  In 2009 my wife and I walked into applause.  Sean O’Connor and Scott Branch came over and told me they were all taking bets as to whether, after the global financial crisis, we would return.

 

Now it’s Joe and Prot.ol and it’s still a lot of fun.  Mid sixties and I wish it could go on forever.

Ahh...whiskybravo you know I have a soft spot for connections, as my wife says, "you live for connections."   I walk out of the house today daily to 80% Trumpers where we pretty much see eye-to-eye on things...'cept Trump!   The old Yahoo Berk board.  I seemed old way back then in the 90's because I'd mention I'd owned Berkshire for over 20 years.  Got called fake and phony more times than I can remember.  Amazingly no matter what the Berk/Buffett investing site - they nearly all become short term in thought and speculative in choices.

 

Have a good day, nice story.  I like stories...you know the older you get...

 

I'm just 71 but I inherited Berk in a trust Jan 10, 1975.  Was worth what a Jeep cost back then when the trust began.  How do I know?  Because I wanted a Jeep and often thought "If I could get my hands on that trust I'd sell that damn nobody-knows-a-thing-about Berkshire stock and get me one."  In the late 70's I even went to work for a man who widely followed Berk/Buffett and STILL - I was a real brainiac for sure back then - was clueless for another few years.

 

 

[73 Reds]

10 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Ahh...whiskybravo you know I have a soft spot for connections, as my wife says, "you live for connections."   I walk out of the house today daily to 80% Trumpers where we pretty much see eye-to-eye on things...'cept Trump!   The old Yahoo Berk board.  I seemed old way back then in the 90's because I'd mention I'd owned Berkshire for over 20 years.  Got called fake and phony more times than I can remember.  Amazingly no matter what the Berk/Buffett investing site - they nearly all become short term in thought and speculative in choices.

 

Have a good day, nice story.  I like stories...you know the older you get...

 

I'm just 71 but I inherited Berk in a trust Jan 10, 1975.  Was worth what a Jeep cost back then when the trust began.  How do I know?  Because I wanted a Jeep and often thought "If I could get my hands on that trust I'd sell that damn nobody-knows-a-thing-about Berkshire stock and get me one."  In the late 70's I even went to work for a man who widely followed Berk/Buffett and STILL - I was a real brainiac for sure back then - was clueless for another few years.

 

 

<<I walk out of the house today daily to 80% Trumpers where we pretty much see eye-to-eye on things...'cept Trump!>>

 

So should we take that to mean that you agree with most of Trump's policies but don't like the man?  If so, welcome to the club.  

[dealraker]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

<<I walk out of the house today daily to 80% Trumpers where we pretty much see eye-to-eye on things...'cept Trump!>>

 

So should we take that to mean that you agree with most of Trump's policies but don't like the man?  If so, welcome to the club.  

I agree with more than I'd like to admit and do believe that his tenure will enable more thoughtful governance in the long run because it has opened the door for meaningful change.

 

I still think he is a worthless piece of f***ing chit, that his main thrust is survival and that is investment/business record is surely the lamest of anyone "ever in history" (as he endlessly phrases things) who has somehow survived.  I believe he fucks up all things he's associated with, that he's a meandering goofball overwhelmed by his endless envy of those who run circles around him.  He does though give the common man someone to look down on, thus his popularity.  

 

 

[73 Reds]

11 minutes ago, dealraker said:

I agree with more than I'd like to admit and do believe that his tenure will enable more thoughtful governance in the long run because it has opened the door for meaningful change.

 

I still think he is a worthless piece of f***ing chit, that his main thrust is survival and that is investment/business record is surely the lamest of anyone "ever in history" (as he endlessly phrases things) who has somehow survived.  I believe he fucks up all things he's associated with, that he's a meandering goofball overwhelmed by his endless envy of those who run circles around him.  He does though give the common man someone to look down on, thus his popularity.  

 

 

And I agree with most of that.  The difference is, I neither liked the prior administration's man or his policies but did not feel the need to vent about it.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

Colonel/General Sink spent a good bit of time in his brief post military life calling attention to non-white male participation in WWII which of course made him about as popular as it would today with MAGA.  His attempts to get recognition for the accurate and hard hitting 333rd Field Artillery Battalion after the war were met with rage from the public.  The 333rd were in the center of the Battle of the Bulge where the Germans over-ran the Allied forces, thus pretty this much wiped out this division, with 11 eventually chased down and tortured/massacred at Wereth.  Bob wanted a memorial and recognition stating they saved his men's lives....but of course that was denied.

 

It took the locals from Wereth to come up with something to honor the massacred 11 from the 333rd.  Tom Hanks pursued making a movie about the 333rd and he requested and evidently used the writings and speeches that Uncle Bob made in his attempts to sell this to investor groups, but for whatever reason it never came about.

 

Sink also profiled the lives of those from the 333rd returning from the war stating in one writing, "What do you do with well-disciplined and accomplished negro men when everyone is threatened by them?"

 

I don't think Uncle Bob would be a Trumper and to be honest with you Cubs given your extreme sensitivity to those not in the power and money grab club I'm surprised that you are.

 

That's really a wonderful story about your Uncle - and I mean that. And I've ALWAYS enjoyed when you talk about him.

 

I have no idea what the great man was like, but the portrayal in Band of Brothers came off like - "he's a real asshole, but he's our asshole".   As far as I'm concerned, it's the same with Trump. Certainly, minorities see it with 50% of the hispanic and 30% of black male vote. 

 

Unfortunately great men like Uncle Bob and Trump have to break a few eggs in the process of saving their country. No one is perfect.

[DooDiligence]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-strikes-global-business-major-ukraine-air-attack-accuses-kyiv-blocking-2025-08-21/

 

Pretty sure the donald will respond by sending troops into Vermont.

 

 

.

Edited August 21, 2025 by DooDiligence