Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

I sort of hope that Trump actually follows through with his threat and quits NATO. it will be a wake up call for th Europeans and the US as well.I think its better for the Europeans because NATO is already dysfunctional. Both Trump and Bessent have pretty much said that won’t defend Europe against Russia. So with Article 5 already in question, the NATO as it is, is already worthless and the sooner it gets replaced by something that is, the better for Europe.

 

I think a lot of leaders in Europe have not really woken up to the prevailing facts but sooner or later they will, especially if Trump actually follows up with his threats.

 

The important fact t to to keep unity and to act as a lock rather than get split into small fractions that can be attack Putin piece by piece . Somehow Rubio, Trump and Vance am campaigning for right wing autocrat Orban, who SA triages the EU any way he can for example seems to intent to accomplish just that. Orban I think will be disposed off with the coming election in Hungary but you ever know.

[ourkid8]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The propaganda really is startling. Americans didnt ask for this, nonetheless its become another one of our burdens to bear. Tax dollars hard at work....More and more kids are starting to be sent overseas and the engagement seems inevitable. With engagement comes more fatalities. Iran "winning" is also quite insane/delusional...everything they have is being bombed to the detriment of their civilian population, no one even knows who's in charge cuz everyone who pops their head up gets whacked, and "we got a jet or two" after 30 days is akin to boasting about capturing a pawn when 3/4 of your pieces have been taken off the board in chess... total shitshow all around. Hardliners on both sides continue to fuck their people. 

The supreme leader is in full control of the country and continues to execute against the brilliant plan put in place by his father. 
 

Iran is fighting for their survival, does US really want to see how far Iran is willing to go?  Let me break the secret, they are willing to go until the end along with the people. (So far based on my understanding almost 7 million has volunteered to fight so far which is on top of the military) 
 

 

Edited April 5 by ourkid8

[cubsfan]

28 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

 

@cubsfan How many American birds were downed this weekend? I thought they were “literally obliterated”?  
 

US intelligence confirms something very different than what you believe   US also begged for a ceasefire- how does it feel getting ready to take the L?  I guess that’s why you didn’t take me on my bet. 
 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/politics/iran-missiles-us-military-strikes-trump

 

Nice job on destroying some US hardware. 

 

All US personnel look to be safe.

 

Give the USA a few more days, and then we skedaddle.  Flip it over to Israel, Gulf States and Europe to see how they would like to handle.

 

The 2 biggest casualties from the War: Iran & NATO.

 

Good luck with that "Death to America" BS.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I sort of hope that Trump actually follows through with his threat and quits NATO. it will be a wake up call for th Europeans and the US as well.I think its better for the Europeans because NATO is already dysfunctional. Both Trump and Bessent have pretty much said that won’t defend Europe against Russia. So with Article 5 already in question, the NATO as it is, is already worthless and the sooner it gets replaced by something that is, the better for Europe.

 

I think a lot of leaders in Europe have not really woken up to the prevailing facts but sooner or later they will, especially if Trump actually follows up with his threats.

 

The important fact t to to keep unity and to act as a lock rather than get split into small fractions that can be attack Putin piece by piece . Somehow Rubio, Trump and Vance am campaigning for right wing autocrat Orban, who SA triages the EU any way he can for example seems to intent to accomplish just that. Orban I think will be disposed off with the coming election in Hungary but you ever know.

 

This will be a very positive development for Europe and the USA.  With their backs against the wall, Europe will have to get serious now, when the USA exits.

[Gregmal]

12 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

The supreme leader is in full control of the country and continues to execute against the brilliant plan put in place by his father. 
 

Iran is fighting for their survival, does US really want to see how far Iran is willing to go?  Let me break the secret, they are willing to go until the end along with the people. (So far based on my understanding almost 7 million has volunteered to fight so far which is on top of the military) 
 

 

Just “surviving” is a pitifully low bar for “winning”…as is “the SOH is still disrupted”. The cost of this “win” to civilians is absurd. It’s the same bs propaganda we hear about Ukraine…I can guarantee that those whom have lost any combination of friends, family, assets, or quality of life component, don’t consider this a win. Civilization has come too far to set such a low bar for “winning”. 

[ourkid8]

5 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Nice job on destroying some US hardware. 

 

All US personnel look to be safe.

 

Give the USA a few more days, and then we skedaddle.  Flip it over to Israel, Gulf States and Europe to see how they would like to handle.

 

The 2 biggest casualties from the War: Iran & NATO.

 

Good luck with that "Death to America" BS.

 

Potential Long-Term Advantages for Iran

 

1. Direct deals with European and other international shippers  
   Some European and international entities are reportedly negotiating or making ad-hoc arrangements with Iran to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Over time, these practical arrangements could evolve into broader trade and economic ties, helping Iran reintegrate into global markets despite ongoing tensions. This pragmatic engagement represents a potential long-term strategic win by expanding diplomatic and commercial relationships.

2. Revenue from Strait of Hormuz transit fees  
   Iran is charging up to $2 million per vessel for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with its parliament advancing formal toll legislation. In a normalized traffic scenario (pre-crisis levels of ~120–138 vessels per day), this could generate substantial additional revenue—potentially in the range of $60–140 billion annually depending on enforcement, compliance, and volume. Even at reduced current traffic levels, it creates a new income stream. Long-term, if sustained, this positions the strait as a significant economic asset for Iran.

3. Easing of sanctions and oil sales at closer-to-market prices  
   Temporary sanctions waivers (such as recent U.S. authorizations for Iranian oil already at sea) and market pressures from high global prices are allowing Iran to sell more crude, sometimes nearer to prevailing rates. Full or sustained sanctions relief could significantly boost export revenues. This shift would strengthen Iran's fiscal position and economic resilience over the long term.

4. Strengthened regional alliances, including with neighbors like Iraq  
   Iran maintains deep ties with aligned groups and governments in neighboring countries, notably Iraq. While the current conflict has complicated dynamics—with Iraq caught in regional crossfire—these relationships provide strategic depth, influence, and mutual support networks that could benefit Iran in the long run.

5. Shift toward non-dollar transactions, including yuan settlements  
   By selling oil and potentially collecting transit fees in yuan, cryptocurrencies, or other alternative currencies, Iran accelerates de-dollarization trends in global energy trade. This reduces exposure to U.S. financial sanctions and contributes to a gradual erosion of dollar dominance, aligning with broader multipolar shifts that could favor Iran's geopolitical maneuverability long-term.

 

Short term, US/Israel destroyed some buildings and killed innocent individuals. US primary objective was a failure yet unintended consequences made Iran a lot stronger. Operation, epic failure. 

[ourkid8]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Just “surviving” is a pitifully low bar for “winning”…as is “the SOH is still disrupted”. The cost of this “win” to civilians is absurd. It’s the same bs propaganda we hear about Ukraine…I can guarantee that those whom have lost any combination of friends, family, assets, or quality of life component, don’t consider this a win. Civilization has come too far to set such a low bar for “winning”. 

As value investors, do we make decisions on a Q report or do we look long term direction? 
 

You are looking at the effects of the war over a short window - a little over one month! I am looking at the long term how they will emerge a super power in the region. - wait and see! 

 

 

 

Edited April 5 by ourkid8

[ourkid8]

32 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

This will be a very positive development for Europe and the USA.  With their backs against the wall, Europe will have to get serious now, when the USA exits.

 

 

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

As value investors, do we make decisions on a Q report or do we look long term direction? 
 

You are looking at the effects of the war over a short window - a little over one month! I am looking at the long term how they will emerge a super power in the region. - wait and see! 

 

 

 

When investing, there’s also things called “impairments”. Some “permanent”. Losing friends, family, assets that impact your quality of life, those things, to civilians, are hardly worth any sort of philosophical longer term “victory”. You lose a child in a war, 10-15 years later you still won’t be made whole. Not to mention no one has even seen or heard from the Supreme Leader, in how long? He’s at best, living in some bunker, probably deformed, with no improvement on the horizon. This is “winning”? 
 

I think it’s becoming more and more apparent that ideological hardliners on both sides are selling everybody a giant crock of shit as some future Golden Ticket to Willy Wonkas chocolate factory. 

[cubsfan]

43 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

 

Potential Long-Term Advantages for Iran

 

1. Direct deals with European and other international shippers  
   Some European and international entities are reportedly negotiating or making ad-hoc arrangements with Iran to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Over time, these practical arrangements could evolve into broader trade and economic ties, helping Iran reintegrate into global markets despite ongoing tensions. This pragmatic engagement represents a potential long-term strategic win by expanding diplomatic and commercial relationships.

2. Revenue from Strait of Hormuz transit fees  
   Iran is charging up to $2 million per vessel for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with its parliament advancing formal toll legislation. In a normalized traffic scenario (pre-crisis levels of ~120–138 vessels per day), this could generate substantial additional revenue—potentially in the range of $60–140 billion annually depending on enforcement, compliance, and volume. Even at reduced current traffic levels, it creates a new income stream. Long-term, if sustained, this positions the strait as a significant economic asset for Iran.

3. Easing of sanctions and oil sales at closer-to-market prices  
   Temporary sanctions waivers (such as recent U.S. authorizations for Iranian oil already at sea) and market pressures from high global prices are allowing Iran to sell more crude, sometimes nearer to prevailing rates. Full or sustained sanctions relief could significantly boost export revenues. This shift would strengthen Iran's fiscal position and economic resilience over the long term.

4. Strengthened regional alliances, including with neighbors like Iraq  
   Iran maintains deep ties with aligned groups and governments in neighboring countries, notably Iraq. While the current conflict has complicated dynamics—with Iraq caught in regional crossfire—these relationships provide strategic depth, influence, and mutual support networks that could benefit Iran in the long run.

5. Shift toward non-dollar transactions, including yuan settlements  
   By selling oil and potentially collecting transit fees in yuan, cryptocurrencies, or other alternative currencies, Iran accelerates de-dollarization trends in global energy trade. This reduces exposure to U.S. financial sanctions and contributes to a gradual erosion of dollar dominance, aligning with broader multipolar shifts that could favor Iran's geopolitical maneuverability long-term.

 

Short term, US/Israel destroyed some buildings and killed innocent individuals. US primary objective was a failure yet unintended consequences made Iran a lot stronger. Operation, epic failure. 

 

That's a good one Kid - Operation Epic Failure!

 

Can't top it!

[Libs]

Not sure if this line of reasoning has been posted, but it seems the U.S. was trying avoid the catastrophic mistake in regards to North Korea getting nukes. Clinton was going to take out their nuclear program, but N Korea made it clear they would destroy South Korea if they were attacked. Clinton backed down.

 

IRAN was operating that exact playbook. They were growing strong enough to threaten their neighbors. It's actually a really smart strategy.

 

I think we had to act.

 

If Trump had clearly drawn that parallel to the U.S, citizens, and stuck to it, citizens this war would be popular. He should have done that.

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

When investing, there’s also things called “impairments”. Some “permanent”. Losing friends, family, assets that impact your quality of life, those things, to civilians, are hardly worth any sort of philosophical longer term “victory”. You lose a child in a war, 10-15 years later you still won’t be made whole. Not to mention no one has even seen or heard from the Supreme Leader, in how long? He’s at best, living in some bunker, probably deformed, with no improvement on the horizon. This is “winning”? 
 

I think it’s becoming more and more apparent that ideological hardliners on both sides are selling everybody a giant crock of shit as some future Golden Ticket to Willy Wonkas chocolate factory. 

 

The whole episode is a horrible tragedy, no doubt.

 

Seeds have been sown for 50 years by the bully of the Middle East.  Years & years of talk, then to top it off, a very foolish American President funds the terrorist with billions. The US shares a large part of the blame.

 

The emboldened terrorist then decides to fuel Oct 7th - not realizing two new leaders actually have some courage and are unafraid. Now you have a nation in shambles that has been set back a decade regardless of regime change or not.

 

So what's the risk/reward?   I'd say $40B invested by the good guys to destroy, perhaps, $1T of assets built up over 30 years??   Probably close enough.

 

Turning to rebuilding Iran. Stark choices here for the regime.  Will the people stand by while you spend billions restarting your offensive capabilities, while they suffer???

 

We're going to find out in the next few days as the big debilitating strikes are coming.

 

War is awful - but true leaders protect their countries - while weak leaders appease their enemies. 

[cubsfan]

Iran could have been Dubai or the Emirates.

 

Instead they chose to be Libya, Lebanon, Syria and export terrorism with their vast oil wealth.

 

Let's hope Iran decides to come back into the world community and chose the Dubai route for the sake of their citizens.

[Spekulatius]

10 minutes ago, Libs said:

Not sure if this line of reasoning has been posted, but it seems the U.S. was trying avoid the catastrophic mistake in regards to North Korea getting nukes. Clinton was going to take out their nuclear program, but N Korea made it clear they would destroy South Korea if they were attacked. Clinton backed down.

 

IRAN was operating that exact playbook. They were growing strong enough to threaten their neighbors. It's actually a really smart strategy.

 

I think we had to act.

 

If Trump had clearly drawn that parallel to the U.S, citizens, and stuck to it, citizens this war would be popular. He should have done that.

There are two ways to prevent a country from  getting nuclear weapons - politically (Israel took this off the table with their preemptive strike ) and military via a ground invasion. Iran. Ow has every incentive to finish the job and get nuclear weapons be sue they know that if they get here, another attack like the cured t one becomes u viable.

 

Also dozens of countries with money and tech are now incentivized to do the same thing and obtain nuclear weapons. One of the first one, I think will be Saudi Arabia via cooperation with Pakistan. Korea and a Japan will also have to think about it

[ourkid8]

28 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

So what's the risk/reward?   I'd say $40B invested by the good guys to destroy, perhaps, $1T of assets built up over 30 years??   Probably close enough.

$2B / day * 36 days = $72B so far. 
- Iran has destroyed all their bases in the region so eventually those will need to be rebuilt (in the countries that allow them to be rebuilt  ) 

- $386 million lost in aircraft this weekend alone

- this doesn’t include all their early warning systems, radars that Iran destroyed across the GCC 

- reconstruction of Israel, some places are looking terrible. Those need to be included in the estimates. 

labour is cheap so reconstruction won’t cost close to that amount and thanks to Trump they have over $100-150B coming in a year via SoH! 

 

Combined, you are looking close to $100B hit to the US tax payer so far with no objectives obtained. Operation epic failure. 
 

 

Edited April 5 by ourkid8

[ourkid8]

51 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Iran could have been Dubai or the Emirates.

 

Instead they chose to be Libya, Lebanon, Syria and export terrorism with their vast oil wealth.

 

Let's hope Iran decides to come back into the world community and chose the Dubai route for the sake of their citizens.

Can you say US has been there for all their people? -$100B spent on this war so far. 

 

- healthcare - disaster 

- infrastructure is crumbling, I am going to NY tomorrow and I feel the airports are worst then 3rd world countries. 
 

I can keep on going but US needs to focus on the US. Trump has been a failure and liar to his people. Imagine, just imagining US invests in their own country instead of fabricating wars across the world. 

 

@cubsfan wasn’t that his campaign promise? 
 

 

 

Edited April 5 by ourkid8

[Viking]

As the war continues, it is impacting the politics of each of the Gulf Countries. Some countries, like Bahrain, could see significant unrest which could lead to regime change (with a fundamentalist pro-Iran government taking control). No, this is not imminent. But the fault lines are there and an earthquake is happening. These are the unintended consequences that often result from war (who knew? everyone will ask). 
 

Iran understands these internal political risks each country in the Gulf is dealing with and will fully exploit them. The middle east is a shit storm at the best of times. Iran is praying that this turns into a religious war. Jews against Muslims. Christians against Muslims. Shia against Sunni. Simmering religious/historical regional hatreds + escalating war = potential powder keg.

 

In the West we look at this war in a very narrow way: got to deal with the ‘nuclear’ problem. Forces are being unleashed that threaten to remake the middle east. And what emerges might be much worse than what existed 5 weeks ago. Yes, unintended consequences can be a bitch. 
 

There were good reasons past administrations did not directly attack Iran. 
 

More importantly, the milk has been spilt. Where do we go from here?
 

Both sides continue to think they are winning - as a result they are getting more entrenched with their demands. Part of the problem is they are playing two entirely different games (with completely different objectives and time frames).
 

The next 2 weeks could prove decisive. Do we see escalation (full blown regional war with boots on the ground) with regime change becoming the new stated objective. Or do we see deescalation? Crazy times. 

Edited April 5 by Viking

[ourkid8]

12 minutes ago, Viking said:

As the war continues, it is impacting the politics of each of the Gulf Countries. Some countries, like Bahrain, could see significant unrest which could lead to regime change (with a fundamentalist pro-Iran government taking control). No, this is not imminent. But the fault lines are there and an earthquake is happening. These are the unintended consequences that often result from war (who knew? everyone will ask). 
 

Iran understands these internal political risks each country in the Gulf is dealing with and will fully exploit them. The middle east is a shit storm at the best of times. Iran is praying that this turns into a religious war. Jews against Muslims. Christians against Muslims. Shia against Sunni. Simmering religious/historical regional hatreds + escalating war = potential powder keg.

 

In the West we look at this war in a very narrow way: got to deal with the ‘nuclear’ problem. Forces are being unleashed that threaten to remake the middle east. And what emerges might be much worse than what existed 5 weeks ago. Yes, unintended consequences can be a bitch. 
 

There were good reasons past administrations did not directly attack Iran. 
 

More importantly, the milk has been spilt. Where do we go from here?
 

Both sides continue to think they are winning - as a result they are getting more entrenched with their demands. Part of the problem is they are playing two entirely different games (with completely different objectives and time frames).
 

The next 2 weeks could prove decisive. Do we see escalation (full blown regional war with boots on the ground) with regime change becoming the new stated objective. Or do we see deescalation? Crazy times. 

Iraq has already flipped, don’t forget Kuwait with Bahrain as they are potentially the next dominos to fall. 

[cubsfan]

32 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

- healthcare - disaster 

- infrastructure is crumbling, I am going to NY tomorrow and I feel the airports are worst then 3rd world countries. 
 

I can keep on going but US needs to focus on the US. 

 

@cubsfan wasn’t that his campaign promise? 
 

 

 

 

You definitely hit the nail on the head Kid.  Once Trumpy cuts the fraud in this country - looks like well over $100B each in CA and NY - he turns to infrastructure and other pressing concerns of Americans.

 

No more fooling around with NATO, etc.

 

Fix the Western Hemisphere and the USA. Maybe even build a huge wall on the Canadian Border!

 

Promises made, Promises kept!

[RichardGibbons]

7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Maybe even build a huge wall on the Canadian Border!

 

Yeah, if this one happens, it'll be for the same reason the Soviets erected the Berlin Wall!

[LC]

15 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Promises made, Promises kept!

 

No new wars!

 

Looks like you need to queue up that benny hill music once again

 

 

[Maverick47]

5 hours ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

Wow.  Just wow.  This is inappropriate on so many levels.  I was 99% sure that this was a fake post, until I investigated further.  

[Castanza]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 

I sort of hope that Trump actually follows through with his threat and quits NATO. it will be a wake up call for th Europeans and the US as well.I think its better for the Europeans because NATO is already dysfunctional. Both Trump and Bessent have pretty much said that won’t defend Europe against Russia. So with Article 5 already in question, the NATO as it is, is already worthless and the sooner it gets replaced by something that is, the better for Europe.

 

I think a lot of leaders in Europe have not really woken up to the prevailing facts but sooner or later they will, especially if Trump actually follows up with his threats.

 

NATO has been mostly a paper tiger since the end of the Cold War anyways…Nuclear deterrence has been more important. The world has changed a lot since then (digitization, global trade, smaller economies becoming developed nations) The EU has lagged in every aspect of defense while focusing on a cushy lifestyle for the civilians. I’m not sure the US would be in a good position to uphold NATO doctrine if someone actually formidable took the offensive (China). A breakup of NATO as it exists is probably for the best for global deterrence. Best to view this topic post Trump. I think EU will quickly realize they still need the US when it comes to defense 3 years from now and I think new US leadership will be on a campaign to realign. Fact is, many western nations need to become stronger. 
 

End of the day, you don’t have to be “friends” to be good teammates. Some healthy skepticism of each other keeps the flame kindled under everyone’s ass imo. 
 

edit: Should add I’m not a fan of Trumps diplomatic approach with allies. But I also question the effectiveness of NATO the last 30 years. 

Edited April 5 by Castanza

[moatrep]

There is a view that the war is being succesfull for what it lasted, and everyone is being impatient.

But the official narrative is that this 2 weeks will be decisive. 

Is the time limit of the war marked by israel's defense systems? Or the gulf states security? If it was not then it would be an easy win. But as it is, then looks like taco may happen.

Edited April 5 by moatrep

[John Hjorth]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

... End of the day, you don’t have to be “friends” to be good teammates. Some healthy skepticism of each other keeps the flame kindled under everyone’s ass imo. 

 

Yes, @Castanza,

 

That's why these kind of 'friends', who really aren't friends, but someone, with which one on a certain matter or matters, share a view, stance on, and thus cooperates with on such specific matters, are called allies.

 

It doesen't imply hugging, kissing or even shagging. The existence based on agreement, rationality, hands-on approach, practicality, combined with respect, mutuality and mutual trust. [  ], just ask Danes and Canadians on this board.

 

You Americans got what you voted for.

 

Now own him, or remove him.