NnnnotSoSmart Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I only own PBR A and selling that one down. I guess I can buy it again closer to $10 some day. +1 Selling down energy exposure gradually toward the eventual resolution of the straights on Hormuz seems a prudent approach. My current energy exposure limited to only AMLP and NFG. Wished I'd owned more at the start of the year. Despite being somewhat shielded from commodity price fluctuations, AMLP goes up and down moderately with oil price fluctuations. Pays 7+% while you hold it. Have owned NFG for years, hoping (as Mario Gabelli does) that they "unlock value" at some point and split it up/sell E&P, pipes and/or utility. Hope springs eternal. Probably won't sell it my NFG down. In the mean time they supply much needed natural gas to large homes owned by Trump haters in the North East. Edited April 4 by NnnnotSoSmart
SharperDingaan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 9 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said: Selling down energy exposure gradually toward the eventual resolution of the straights on Hormuz seems a prudent approach. Have owned NFG for years, hoping (as Mario Gabelli does) that they "unlock value" at some point and split it up/sell E&P, pipes and/or utility. Hope springs eternal. Keep in mind that sale and repurchase is purely a tactical swing trade; it has little to do with the underlying investment. A scalp of the 10-15% 'media' TDS hype on the way up, and another 10-15% off the depression on the way down . All that is required is (1) a place to park proceeds, and (2) Orange Boy staying alive long enough to enable a quiet repurchase of what was sold . All hail the US military! SD
Red Lion Posted April 4 Posted April 4 14 hours ago, Gregmal said: I’m starting to see a massive short opportunity in energy/oil. Haven’t quite figured out the most optimal way to play it. But it’s soooo apparent there’s a glut of I hate Trump/he so stupid guys euphoric on “oil to infinity”, as is there a glut of conspiracy theory maga loving oil bulls. That’s gotta be like 80% of the forces behind the market/narrative right now, and it’s gonna fade spectacularly. Maybe sell puts on Apollo and buy puts on energy companies if you want the real contrarian play on both sides.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted April 4 Posted April 4 12 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Keep in mind that sale and repurchase is purely a tactical swing trade; it has little to do with the underlying investment. A scalp of the 10-15% 'media' TDS hype on the way up, and another 10-15% off the depression on the way down . All that is required is (1) a place to park proceeds, and (2) Orange Boy staying alive long enough to enable a quiet repurchase of what was sold . All hail the US military! SD True. Problem is orange man seems to announce his crazy ideas and forays on Fridays after the close. Som'bitch!
Viking Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) Iran currently controls the Straight of Hormuz. This gives the IRGC enormous political and economic power. In an exercise of their growing power, they appear to ready to 'allow' oil from Iraq to flow out of the Gulf. Why would the IRGC do this? To expand their power/influence beyond Iran and into Iraq. The war in the Persian Gulf is morphing. With each passing week, the power of the US is diminishing. And the power of Iran is growing. Iraq is perhaps the latest example. There is a scenario where Iran emerges from the current conflict the dominant power in the Middle East. I am not sure this is what the US/Israeli's intended. (The chances of this outcome happening are growing with each passing week...) The problem with wars like this is they often tend to go in unexpected directions. It appears the US/Israeli's grossly underestimated Iran. Especially the shift in Iran's strategy/tactics over the past 8 months (to more hard line). The US cemented Iran's shift to a hard line approach when they took out the senior leadership (who were the moderates) on day one of the way - that strike was, with hindsight, a gift to the hardliners in Iran - who are now fully in control. The US got regime change in Iran all right... from moderates to hard liners. Yes, if the old Iran, run by moderates, did what they did... guess what a new Iran, run by hard liners, will be doing moving forward... And what the hard-liners have learned over the past 5 weeks is their strategy (escalation - close the straight and inflict damage on the Arab neighbours) is working fabulously well (all things considered). The result, is the US/Israeli's are dealing with a new paradigm in the middle east - an Iran that has enormous leverage that they are now willing to use for the first time ever. The is not the same Iran (IRGC) that existed 8 months ago. We are in uncharted territory. That has important implications for the global economy. So the US has a choice... escalate and hope that they get lucky and the war flips back in their favour. Or continue to watch Iran's power grow greater with each passing week. Of course, we are early days into this conflict (5 weeks). And things are very fluid - subject to change day to day and week to week. So it is impossible to know exactly how things will look in another year or so. But it is important to be open minded to the different potential outcomes. Edited April 4 by Viking
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 5 hours ago, ourkid8 said: You should read on the greater Israel project and see how much additional land Israel is planning to steal from their neighbours -SMH. It's very logical for Israel to redraw their most important borders given that Hamas & Hezbollah can never be trusted. Israel earns their new borders as they rid themselves of rats/terrorists and create new buffer zones.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Viking said: The war in the Persian Gulf is morphing. With each passing week, the power of the US is diminishing. And the power of Iran is growing. Iraq is perhaps the latest example. There is a scenario where Iran emerges from the current conflict the dominant power in the Middle East. I am not sure this is what the US/Israeli's intended. (The chances of this outcome happening are growing with each passing week...) Brings to mind a Monty Python Sketch. Iran: "Just a flesh wound! I'm invincible!" Edited April 4 by NnnnotSoSmart
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 12 minutes ago, Viking said: Iran currently controls the Straight of Hormuz. This gives the IRGC enormous political and economic power. In an exercise of their growing power, they appear to ready to 'allow' oil from Iraq to flow out of the Gulf. Why would the IRGC do this? To expand their power/influence beyond Iran and into Iraq. The war in the Persian Gulf is morphing. With each passing week, the power of the US is diminishing. And the power of Iran is growing. Iraq is perhaps the latest example. There is a scenario where Iran emerges from the current conflict the dominant power in the Middle East. I am not sure this is what the US/Israeli's intended. (The chances of this outcome happening are growing with each passing week...) The problem with wars like this is they often tend to go in unexpected directions. It appears the US/Israeli's grossly underestimated Iran. Especially the shift in Iran's tactics over the past 8 months (to more hard line). The US cemented Iran's shift to a hard line approach when they took out the senior leadership (who were the moderates) on day one of the way - that strike was, with hindsight, a gift to the hardliners in Iran - who are now fully in control. The US got regime change in Iran all right... from moderates to hard liners. Yes, if the old Iran, run by moderates, did what they did... guess what a new Iran, run by hard liners, will be doing moving forward... And that the hard-liners have learned over the past 5 weeks is their strategy (escalation - close the straight and inflict damage on the Arab neighbours) is working fabulously well (all things considered). The result, is the US/Israeli's are dealing with a new paradigm in the middle east - an Iran that has enormous leverage that they are now willing to use for the first time ever. The is not the same Iran (IRGC) that existed 8 months ago. We are in uncharted territory. That has important implications for the global economy. So the US has a choice... escalate and hope that they get lucky and the war flips back in their favour. Or continue to watch Iran's power grow greater with each passing week. Of course, we are early days into this conflict (5 weeks). And things are very fluid - subject to change day to day and week to week. So it is impossible to know exactly how things will look in another year or so. But it is important to be open minded to the different potential outcomes. Damn, I really need some of that shit you are smoking. Iran "emerges" from this war extremely badly damaged - and if something doesn't change quickly in the next 48 hours, per Trump's deadline, it only gets much worse for them. Imagine most of your military assets and now infrastructure being destroyed - and the regime "survives". You think the Iranians are going to stand for the regime pumping billions into their proxy wars and military rebuilding while the Iranian people just starve?? You are looking at an entirely different Iran. One that has been smashed into oblivion. How will they rebuild absent oil revenue? How will they have oil revenue with the US effectively putting a blockade on Kharg? Iran just turned all their Arab neighbors against them by attacking them for no cause. Iran has no friends left - other than the usual suspects, Russia, China, N Korea - and also now some cowardly European countries. It's clear Trump/Israel hold all the leverage and more with each passing week.
John Hjorth Posted April 4 Posted April 4 5 minutes ago, cubsfan said: ... - and also now some cowardly European countries. ... Who [which country/ies] and what are you referring to here, Mike [ @cubsfan ]?
Spekulatius Posted April 4 Posted April 4 European Involvement makes no sense. It’s not their war, nobody in Europe asked for it nor were they consulted and the US Navy doesn’t go close to the SOH. Why would Europes much smaller naval forces venture there? As I have posted before Europe does not get their oil from the Gulf either - China, Asia and India does. I think the Gulf states and Iran will come to an agreement if Trumps pulls out because they have to. Its too early talk about winners and losers here because it’s not over yet. Iran isn’t the winner for sure because their country got destroyed. I think Israel is winner because many of their political goals got accomplished. The Gulf states are losers because they lost income and their economy got destroyed also as well as well as the security is questionable. The US spent lots of money and may not have much to show for as well other then creating a recession. There can be and are likely more than loser. If the Gulf states don’t like how Trump leaves the place than the US influence there will be greatly diminished. Many different outcomes but most have a negative skew, imo.
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 17 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Who [which country/ies] and what are you referring to here, Mike [ @cubsfan ]? Spain, Italy, France, and the guy that can't make up his mind - the UK.
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: European Involvement makes no sense. It’s not their war, nobody in Europe asked for it nor were they consulted and the US Navy doesn’t go close to the SOH. Why would Europes much smaller naval forces venture there? As I have posted before Europe does not get their oil from the Gulf either - China, Asia and India does. I think the Gulf states and Iran will come to an agreement if Trumps pulls out because they have to. Its too early talk about winners and losers here because it’s not over yet. Iran isn’t the winner for sure because their country got destroyed. I think Israel is winner because many of their political goals got accomplished. The Gulf states are losers because they lost income and their economy got destroyed also as well as well as the security is questionable. The US spent lots of money and may not have much to show for as well other then creating a recession. There can be and are likely more than loser. If the Gulf states don’t like how Trump leaves the place than the US influence there will be greatly diminished. Many different outcomes but most have a negative skew, imo. There is no reason to "consult" Europe about anything. Europe demands the USA get involved in Ukraine, when they don't. They didn't "consult" Trump. France and the UK did not "consult" the USA before they decided to take out Libya. The UK did not "consult" the USA before they decided to take out Argentina in the Falklands. The USA did not want to be involved in the war in Serbia when NATO demanded it - and of course the USA carried much of the load. China gets their oil from Iran. The Europeans get their oil from the Arab Gulf States. If Europe wants their oil, they will need to make a sacrifice to get it. It's their problem now. The Arab states, Europe and Israel are huge winners in this deal with a nuclear Iran decimated. Of course, they won't admit it, because they can't afford to piss off their radical Muslim residents.
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 This is why the US needs to dump NATO once and for all. It's a "alliance of convenience" for Europe. Totally one sided and useless for the USA. They will use the alliance for wars they want, demanding involvement from the USA - but will never reciprocate. Such hypocrites. All the USA is to Europe is an armed force they can use and abuse - while they do nothing - and expect the USA to carry the load. They really fucked up this time - Americans see it.
Viking Posted April 4 Posted April 4 59 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Damn, I really need some of that shit you are smoking. Iran "emerges" from this war extremely badly damaged - and if something doesn't change quickly in the next 48 hours, per Trump's deadline, it only gets much worse for them. Imagine most of your military assets and now infrastructure being destroyed - and the regime "survives". You think the Iranians are going to stand for the regime pumping billions into their proxy wars and military rebuilding while the Iranian people just starve?? You are looking at an entirely different Iran. One that has been smashed into oblivion. How will they rebuild absent oil revenue? How will they have oil revenue with the US effectively putting a blockade on Kharg? Iran just turned all their Arab neighbors against them by attacking them for no cause. Iran has no friends left - other than the usual suspects, Russia, China, N Korea - and also now some cowardly European countries. It's clear Trump/Israel hold all the leverage and more with each passing week. Iran is playing the long game. The US is playing the ‘two or three’ week game. Time is Iran’s friend - in a massive way. And with each passing week that the current situation remains as is, the pain to the global economy will continie to build. At some point (when physical shortages in oil, LGG, refined products, fertilizers start to really bite in terms of much higher prices) the stock market is going to have its Wile E Coyote moment. Probably mid to late April (if we continue down this path). Guess what Trump will do then? Everyone knows the stock market is his most important barmeter of his own performance. (To deflect criticism, he will need to manufacture an even bigger problem - that should scare the hell out of everyone.)
Viking Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 52 minutes ago, cubsfan said: This is why the US needs to dump NATO once and for all. It's a "alliance of convenience" for Europe. Totally one sided and useless for the USA. They will use the alliance for wars they want, demanding involvement from the USA - but will never reciprocate. Such hypocrites. All the USA is to Europe is an armed force they can use and abuse - while they do nothing - and expect the USA to carry the load. They really fucked up this time - Americans see it. The US has legitimate grievances when it comes to NATO. One of them is spending on military. This specific complaint is (finally) being addressed. There are parts of Donald Trump’s leadership that I agree with. But there are other parts of his leadership that are unmitigated disaster. For the US. And the West. Actions have consequences. Do stupid/destructive things - really bad shit happens. That is what we are seeing more and more with Trump and his policies. The good that he is doing is being swallowed up by the bad. @cubsfan, sorry, but ‘the US is a victim’ narrative is getting really stale. More and more, Trump (and his act/schtick/policies) is creating the exact problems that he is railing against. It is becoming more and more apparent to the rest of the world - and the rest of the world is adjusting. Here is what Charlie Munger had to say about developing a victim mindset (that Donald Trump is championing): "Whenever you think that some situation or some person is ruining your life, [think that] it’s actually you who are ruining your life. It’s such a simple idea. Feeling like a victim is a perfectly disastrous way to go through life. If you just take the attitude that, however bad it is in anyway, it’s always your fault and you just fix it as best you can – the so-called ‘iron prescription’ – I think that really works... Well you can say that’s waggery, but I suggest that every time you find you’re drifting into self-pity, I don’t care what the cause, your child could be dying of cancer, self-pity is not going to improve the situation… It’s a ridiculous way to behave, and when you avoid it you get a great advantage over everybody else, almost everybody else, because self-pity is a standard condition and yet you can train yourself out of it." ————— A consistent message I have said to my 3 kids for years now is if you life is not going the way you want it to, start by looking in the mirror - don’t start by looking to blame others. Most important, don’t develop a victim mindset. Edited April 4 by Viking
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Viking said: The US has legitimate grievances when it comes to NATO. One of them is spending on military. This specific complaint is (finally) being addressed. There are parts of Donald Trump’s leadership that I agree with. But there are other parts of his leadership that are unmitigated disaster. For the US. And the West. Actions have consequences. Do stupid/destructive things - really bad shit happens. That is what we are seeing more and more with Trump and his policies. The good that he is doing is being swallowed up by the bad. @cubsfan, sorry, but ‘the US is a victim’ narrative is getting really stale. More and more, Trump (and his act/schtick/policies) is creating the exact problems that he is railing against. It is becoming more and more apparent to the rest of the world that the emperor has no clothes. Here is what Charlie Munger had to say about developing a victim mindset (that Donald Trump is championing): "Whenever you think that some situation or some person is ruining your life, [think that] it’s actually you who are ruining your life. It’s such a simple idea. Feeling like a victim is a perfectly disastrous way to go through life. If you just take the attitude that, however bad it is in anyway, it’s always your fault and you just fix it as best you can – the so-called ‘iron prescription’ – I think that really works... Well you can say that’s waggery, but I suggest that every time you find you’re drifting into self-pity, I don’t care what the cause, your child could be dying of cancer, self-pity is not going to improve the situation… It’s a ridiculous way to behave, and when you avoid it you get a great advantage over everybody else, almost everybody else, because self-pity is a standard condition and yet you can train yourself out of it." Your BS narrative totally ignores the fundamental truth @Viking - you are not kidding anyone. Iran has nuclear capabilities with weapons grade material. Iran has the ABILITY to reach Europe with ICBM's - and all the idiots in Europe WANTED to believe the opposite. Iran is a terrorist state that holds the world hostage, decade after decade. That is all that matters here. Stick your head in the sand... But now you come through with your psychoanalysis bullshit on Trump like so many other posters here - and it sounds dumb - ignoring the real fundamental problems -which is a weak Europe unwilling to upset their radical Muslim populations and siding with Iran - who are blackmailed by Iran and don't want to admit it. The Europeans are freeloaders on NATO - and that is NOT going to change for many, many years. Hopefully the US just gets out and starts over. We certainly do not need this one-sided relationship. Edited April 4 by cubsfan
LC Posted April 4 Posted April 4 7 hours ago, ICUMD said: Terrorism is any killing in the name of politics and ideology. I condemn all of it, regardless of the originating country or group. But what about when it's done to keep a child rapist POTUS out of prison? Surely the ends must justify the means!
Gregmal Posted April 4 Posted April 4 Remember when we had a recession under Biden and the everyone just lied about it and later changed the definition of recession? Also, recall how we all got on with our lives, and are still here today, despite that boogeyman “recession”?
LC Posted April 4 Posted April 4 11 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Iran has nuclear capabilities with weapons grade material. Iran has the ABILITY to reach Europe with ICBM's - and all the idiots in Europe WANTED to believe the opposite. Iran is a terrorist state that holds the world hostage, decade after decade. I've been forgetting to take my daily dose of Trumphetamines, maybe that's why I'm confused: So now the USA which is anti-free-loading-Europe and so in the case of Ukraine does not want to come to the aid of Europe in a foreign war against a nuclear power, is now apparently is now waging war on behalf of Europe to save Europe from a nuclear power in Iran? This is all too confusing let me find those little blue pills and donate another 100 shekels to MelaniaCoin.
Viking Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) It’s like a person who kicks their best friend in the nuts. Then calls him out in front of everyone. And then - without talking to the friend first - walks into a bar and starts a bar fight. And then when it goes badly blames the whole mess on his friend. That is no way to run a country. You can’t make this stuff up. I keep saying it: There are parts of Trump that I like. There are parts of Trump that are an unmitigated disaster. The ‘disaster’ is swallowing the ‘good.’ This is becoming more and more apparent… Edited April 4 by Viking
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 10 minutes ago, LC said: I've been forgetting to take my daily dose of Trumphetamines, maybe that's why I'm confused: So now the USA which is anti-free-loading-Europe and so in the case of Ukraine does not want to come to the aid of Europe in a foreign war against a nuclear power, is now apparently is now waging war on behalf of Europe to save Europe from a nuclear power in Iran? This is all too confusing let me find those little blue pills and donate another 100 shekels to MelaniaCoin. Yeah, it's real simple. Europe demands the USA come to the rescue of Ukraine - and throws a 5 years tantrum when it doesn't happen. The US comes and eliminate an enormous threat to Europe - a nuclear weapons Iran with ICBM's - and then Europe has a hissy fit when asked for assistance. The US ELIMINATES the nuclear threat with no help from our so-called allies. Time to exit NATO. We definitely can't count on Europe as allies. It is an alliance of convenience for the Europeans - all one way.
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 5 minutes ago, Viking said: It’s like a person who kicks their best friend in the nuts. Then calls him out in front of everyone. And then - without talking to the friend first - walks into a bar and starts a bar fight. And then when it goes badly blames the whole mess on his friend. That is no way to run a country. You can’t make this stuff up. I keep saying it: There are parts of Trump that I like. There are parts of Trump that are an unmitigated disaster. The ‘disaster’ is swallowing the ‘good.’ This is becoming more and more apparent… time is our friend in this regard. That's exactly what the Europeans did with Serbia, Libya and the Falklands - drag the US into wars that we're in NONE of our national interest. Why did that work?? Because the US was a true ally. Unlike Europe today - weak and scared out of their minds - unable and unwilling to pull their weight when an ally (the USA) needs it.
Sweet Posted April 4 Posted April 4 10 minutes ago, cubsfan said: That's exactly what the Europeans did with Serbia, Libya and the Falklands - drag the US into wars that we're in NONE of our national interest. Why did that work?? Because the US was a true ally. Unlike Europe today - weak and scared out of their minds - unable and unwilling to pull their weight when an ally (the USA) needs it. Far more Europeans died fighting America’s wars in the last 30 years than vice versa. America did very little in Falklands and took a supporting role in Lybia. I’m very sympathic to America has done too much, and Europeans doing too little, but if you measure it by the most important metric of all - dead soldiers - it’s a very different story. And it’s ungrateful to. Moreover, ther have been times when the US actively undermined Europeans looking after themselves. All forgotten for some reason.
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Sweet said: Far more Europeans died fighting America’s wars in the last 30 years than vice versa. America did very little in Falklands and took a supporting role in Lybia. I’m very sympathic to America has done too much, and Europeans doing too little, but if you measure it by the most important metric of all - dead soldiers - it’s a very different story. And it’s ungrateful to. Moreover, ther have been times when the US actively undermined Europeans looking after themselves. All forgotten for some reason. You have no idea what you are talking about. During the Falkland War, when the US had established good relations with Argentina - and it was CLEARLY against our interests - the US finally caved and provided massive logistical support to the UK. Why? We decided to be a good ally. Regarding Libya - The UK & France wanted Libya destroyed. The US had NO interest in Libya, as Gaddafi was powerless and not a threat to the US. However, the US acquiesced to France and the UK. Who did most of the bombing?? Obama flew 27,000 sorties for 7 straight months, destroying Libya on behalf of France & the UK. (Versus Iran with 10,000 sorties in 40 days) Serbia? Same thing. Key point: Falkland, Libya, Serbia - NOT OUR WARS, NOT IN NATO. And what does the USA ask in return for Iran?? Let us use OUR bases and your airspace for logistics and support. What ungrateful allies. Edited April 4 by cubsfan
LC Posted April 4 Posted April 4 Quote The US comes and eliminate an enormous threat to Europe So let's go to Iran and have more Americans die for the Europe you can't stand? Or perhaps there is another reason... Hmm...might need to put on America's thinking cap for this one...oh wait looks like it's in use
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