Parsad Posted April 3 Posted April 3 8 minutes ago, ourkid8 said: I added a few points to make it fair and moral. Do you now agree? 1. Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity should be handed over to face fair and impartial international trials. 2. If Iran ceases all state-sponsored terrorism and proxy activities in the region, the United States should pass a congressional resolution that similarly ends American funding and support for any Israeli state-sponsored actions, ISiS and al Qaeda that violate international norms. Fairness requires both sides to be held to the same standard. 3. Iran had already agreed to give up all nuclear weapons-related material before the recent conflict. In the interest of equity, Israel should also fully dismantle and surrender its nuclear arsenal, as it is the only country in the region with a declared “Samson Option” and has conducted strikes against Iran and other individuals. 4. Iran has never launched an unprovoked conventional attack on its neighbors. Given Israel’s history of initiating military actions, there should be clear international resolutions mandating collective global response if Israel engages in future acts of aggression. 5. Iran previously accepted and willing to accept international inspections under the nuclear agreement until it was unilaterally torn up by the Trump administration. Iran has consistently stated it seeks only peaceful nuclear energy. Any new agreement must treat both nations including Israel equally on this issue as they refuse any kind of governance / inspections. 1. You would also have to do the same with the leaders of the Iranian regime...although most that were culpable are dead now. 2. Yeah, you aren't making a deal with the 800lb gorilla...not going to happen. 3. Agree...after say 10 years of Iran showing good behavior and not developing any nuclear materials. Israel is still the one surrounded by those that want to dispose of it. Iran has shown no indication in the last 47 years that it doesn't want Israel gone. 4. Iran just attacked its neighbors who did not attack Iran...so have no idea what you are talking about! Simply to force the U.S. to stop attacking and draw the ire of neighbors against the U.S. 5. Iran would not allow UN inspectors to certain sites, that's why the agreement was torn up. Why the hell did they have nuclear material now? They've been working on it and likely will continue working on it unless inspectors (not just UN) are given full access. Iran should take a page from Japan...what Iran has been doing has not worked in nearly 50 years! It's madness! It's just to keep the theocracy embedded and in control like North Korea...regardless of the quality of life of the citizens. Cheers!
Spekulatius Posted April 3 Posted April 3 It would be great if Iran leadership would have to answer to their own citizens after fair and democratic elections. No international court would be required. Iran has sham elections were only “qualified” candidates approved by the regime are up for election. Israel has democratic elections and Netanyahu was elected.
ourkid8 Posted April 3 Posted April 3 1 hour ago, Parsad said: 1. You would also have to do the same with the leaders of the Iranian regime...although most that were culpable are dead now. 2. Yeah, you aren't making a deal with the 800lb gorilla...not going to happen. 3. Agree...after say 10 years of Iran showing good behavior and not developing any nuclear materials. Israel is still the one surrounded by those that want to dispose of it. Iran has shown no indication in the last 47 years that it doesn't want Israel gone. 4. Iran just attacked its neighbors who did not attack Iran...so have no idea what you are talking about! Simply to force the U.S. to stop attacking and draw the ire of neighbors against the U.S. 5. Iran would not allow UN inspectors to certain sites, that's why the agreement was torn up. Why the hell did they have nuclear material now? They've been working on it and likely will continue working on it unless inspectors (not just UN) are given full access. Iran should take a page from Japan...what Iran has been doing has not worked in nearly 50 years! It's madness! It's just to keep the theocracy embedded and in control like North Korea...regardless of the quality of life of the citizens. Cheers! Sorry, I added 6-9 - I was out with the kids and didn't get my full thoughts. All i am saying is everything needs to be fair, israel has been getting a free pass and that has to change. 1. Of course - however there are no arrest warrent 2. US/Israel can continue state sponsored terrorist activities - how is that morally right? 3. Again, if you want to de-fang one you have to defang all. Again, how is that morally right? The majority of the world hates israeli because of how they conduct themselves - they need to learn to be good neighbours and if US stops supporting them they will have no choice 4. Iran attacked their neighbours who allowed US to jump off their countries and attack Iran. They became legitimate targets as Iran was defending themselves under article 51. Name me the last time Iran chose to start a war - please dig deep 5. Israel need to sign NPT and have inspections! - again, how is this morally fair? 6. Iran must retain control over the SoH to ensure their sovereignty is protected 7. US and allies would remove all sanctions against Iran 8. reparation : compensation for war damages and losses 9. US withdrawal: closure of US military bases in the region
cubsfan Posted April 3 Posted April 3 4 hours ago, ourkid8 said: Pete Hegseth has fired over 12 generals collectively. These generals know what is coming and do not agree with the direction of the war criminals that is guiding them. For context, Iran has a $15B yearly military budget and US/Israel have $1.035T and they are losing. - wow! Hey Kid - there is something about those Generals.. Not very scary...
cubsfan Posted April 3 Posted April 3 3 hours ago, Parsad said: Almost all of them served under Biden...so there is obviously a disagreement in objectives and strategy. That is to be expected if Trump's administration renamed the DOD to Department of War. Which is correct will be known in hindsight. I'm sure Trump's team isn't taking the most prudent course...more likely a more aggressive course not thinking through the full ramifications, as most are more goal-oriented than interested in mitigating risk. Cheers! Parsad - remind me to send you a MAGA hat... you are coming around!
ourkid8 Posted April 3 Posted April 3 (edited) US continues to beg for a ceasefire. Again, Iran politely rejected. @cubsfan How does it feel losing and begging for a ceasefire? Today Iran shot down numerous US aircraft. - US definitely looks to have air superiority! https://x.com/skynews/status/2040135573650755665?s=46&t=hjN-OM8Ag3ECARJAPuELYQ Edited April 3 by ourkid8
cubsfan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 12 minutes ago, ourkid8 said: US continues to beg for a ceasefire. Again, Iran politely rejected. @cubsfan How does it feel losing and begging for a ceasefire? Today Iran shot down numerous US aircraft. - US definitely looks to have air superiority! https://x.com/skynews/status/2040135573650755665?s=46&t=hjN-OM8Ag3ECARJAPuELYQ I think we are pretty close to surrendering!
ourkid8 Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 20 minutes ago, cubsfan said: I think we are pretty close to surrendering! It’s coming! - give it a week or two and let’s see what WTI / Brent trade at. (The world is feeling the pain and it’s just starting) I forgot to add, LNG, fertilizer etc are all impacted! The Lehman moment is going to come, it’s slowly building up! Edited April 4 by ourkid8
Parsad Posted April 4 Posted April 4 55 minutes ago, ourkid8 said: Sorry, I added 6-9 - I was out with the kids and didn't get my full thoughts. All i am saying is everything needs to be fair, israel has been getting a free pass and that has to change. 1. Of course - however there are no arrest warrent 2. US/Israel can continue state sponsored terrorist activities - how is that morally right? 3. Again, if you want to de-fang one you have to defang all. Again, how is that morally right? The majority of the world hates israeli because of how they conduct themselves - they need to learn to be good neighbours and if US stops supporting them they will have no choice 4. Iran attacked their neighbours who allowed US to jump off their countries and attack Iran. They became legitimate targets as Iran was defending themselves under article 51. Name me the last time Iran chose to start a war - please dig deep 5. Israel need to sign NPT and have inspections! - again, how is this morally fair? 6. Iran must retain control over the SoH to ensure their sovereignty is protected 7. US and allies would remove all sanctions against Iran 8. reparation : compensation for war damages and losses 9. US withdrawal: closure of US military bases in the region 1. That's because the entire leadership group was culpable of state-sponsored terrorism and killing tens of thousands of their own people! 2. Not Israel...but you aren't going to defang USA/Russia/China/UK/Italy/Germany...just not going to happen...probably not India now either. So far, these groups are at least civil to one another even with tariffs and sanctions. 3. Israel isn't targeting people around the world. October 7th was also an attack against Israel civilians on Israeli soil. No different than 9/11. 4. Off of US bases...why attack Kuwaiti or Dubai hotels? 5. Yes...but not until they are assured Iran is defanged. 6. Nope. Their sovereignty is protected by not fucking blowing up civilians around the world and remaining a peace-loving nation...not one intent on the genocide of Jews! SOH should be controlled by a consortium of Gulf states...allies and non-allies to the U.S./Russia/China/India alike...that way everyone gets oil and no single group can shut it down. 7. Yes. No nuclear material and inspections...yes, no sanctions. 8. Yes. Should be footed partly by the U.S., but mostly by Gulf States/Israel/etc and the consortium group that oversees the SOH. 9. Again, the 800lb gorilla isn't going to close any bases unless it wants to. And frankly, if this all leads to peace in the Middle East, free flowing oil, an unsanctioned Iran, the military bases are perfectly fine! Please don't keep adding to this list, as my fingers get tired! Also, you are looking for parity here between Iran and Israel. That isn't going to happen until Iran's intentions are submissive and in line with peace, rather than terrorism and genocide. The deal is that Iran doesn't get wiped off the map by becoming a peace-loving nation intent only on economic and quality of life growth. Building or retaining a strong Iranian military should not be their primary objective...only that they can defend their borders within reason and police their people within the law. Israel should be held under similar standards once there is some assurance of peace and safety in the Middle East. Cheers!
Parsad Posted April 4 Posted April 4 52 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Parsad - remind me to send you a MAGA hat... you are coming around! Maybe I'm changing you! I'll send you a CAGE (Canada Already Great, Eh) hat. Cheers!
Spekulatius Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) Only 6% of the EU’s crude comes through the SOH, so the EU not have to do anything. Also per capita consumption of energy is lower than in the US and the renewables actually make the EU less less dependent on hydrocarbons. The issue is not supply security, it’s the impact of higher energy cost on the consumer but the US has the same issues. As for supply security , the main impact is with Asia which is where most of the crude goes - SE Asia, India, China. Then you have the Gulf states that cannot export oil LNG and fertilizer which are the main drivers for half their economy. Then you have secondary impacts on tourism and other industries in their area and it’s clear they are going to see a Great Depression much worse than GFC or Covid-19. Edited April 4 by Spekulatius
Gregmal Posted April 4 Posted April 4 I’m starting to see a massive short opportunity in energy/oil. Haven’t quite figured out the most optimal way to play it. But it’s soooo apparent there’s a glut of I hate Trump/he so stupid guys euphoric on “oil to infinity”, as is there a glut of conspiracy theory maga loving oil bulls. That’s gotta be like 80% of the forces behind the market/narrative right now, and it’s gonna fade spectacularly.
Parsad Posted April 4 Posted April 4 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: I’m starting to see a massive short opportunity in energy/oil. Haven’t quite figured out the most optimal way to play it. But it’s soooo apparent there’s a glut of I hate Trump/he so stupid guys euphoric on “oil to infinity”, as is there a glut of conspiracy theory maga loving oil bulls. That’s gotta be like 80% of the forces behind the market/narrative right now, and it’s gonna fade spectacularly. Probably, but you want to make sure you don't get burned on the timing. Remember when oil last went sky high, and then eventually fell to $18/barrel, and subsequent to that...even negative cost for a brief moment! How do you time that without losing your shirt if you are wrong on the duration this lasts? Cheers!
John Hjorth Posted April 4 Posted April 4 5 hours ago, cubsfan said: Parsad - remind me to send you a MAGA hat... you are coming around! Mike [ @cubsfan ], HaHa! -Throw in the box a pair of John Dalys Loudmouth golf pants too! : [Honestly, it is really a great idea, isen't it?!]
ICUMD Posted April 4 Posted April 4 @ourkid8 I agree. Saddened to see so much destruction and death at the hands of questionable leadership. No doubt that Iranian leadership has been oppressive to its people. However, the justification for the US/Israeli initiated unprovoked war is incoherent with no clear goals. Further, they are in complete disregard of international law. Logically, this makes them the terrorists in this conflict. Iran is entitled to defend itself. In fact, one could argue it's because Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons that they were attacked. Their armaments were clearly underestimated. The only logical conclusion is that Israel seeks absolute control and territorial expansion in the Middle East. This would explain the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. It's expansionism under various other excuses. Since there is refusal to acknowledge the true goals of this war, there is no diplomatic compromise I can see in the near term.
73 Reds Posted April 4 Posted April 4 4 hours ago, ICUMD said: @ourkid8 I agree. Saddened to see so much destruction and death at the hands of questionable leadership. No doubt that Iranian leadership has been oppressive to its people. However, the justification for the US/Israeli initiated unprovoked war is incoherent with no clear goals. Further, they are in complete disregard of international law. Logically, this makes them the terrorists in this conflict. Iran is entitled to defend itself. In fact, one could argue it's because Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons that they were attacked. Their armaments were clearly underestimated. The only logical conclusion is that Israel seeks absolute control and territorial expansion in the Middle East. This would explain the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. It's expansionism under various other excuses. Since there is refusal to acknowledge the true goals of this war, there is no diplomatic compromise I can see in the near term. I guess sponsoring terrorism worldwide is not a problem for you. Try having them as your neighbors.
ICUMD Posted April 4 Posted April 4 Terrorism is any killing in the name of politics and ideology. I condemn all of it, regardless of the originating country or group.
ourkid8 Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 6 hours ago, ICUMD said: @ourkid8 I agree. Saddened to see so much destruction and death at the hands of questionable leadership. No doubt that Iranian leadership has been oppressive to its people. However, the justification for the US/Israeli initiated unprovoked war is incoherent with no clear goals. Further, they are in complete disregard of international law. Logically, this makes them the terrorists in this conflict. Iran is entitled to defend itself. In fact, one could argue it's because Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons that they were attacked. Their armaments were clearly underestimated. The only logical conclusion is that Israel seeks absolute control and territorial expansion in the Middle East. This would explain the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. It's expansionism under various other excuses. Since there is refusal to acknowledge the true goals of this war, there is no diplomatic compromise I can see in the near term. “Change happens one person at a time” - Michelle Obama. Exactly - I couldn’t have said it better myself, US / Israel are the terrorist. Israel got a bloody nose last year after facing Iran H2H and they brought their larger bully this time around. - both will need to be taught a lesson so this never repeats You should read on the greater Israel project and see how much additional land Israel is planning to steal from their neighbours -SMH. Edited April 4 by ourkid8
SharperDingaan Posted April 4 Posted April 4 12 hours ago, Gregmal said: I’m starting to see a massive short opportunity in energy/oil. Haven’t quite figured out the most optimal way to play it. But it’s soooo apparent there’s a glut of I hate Trump/he so stupid guys euphoric on “oil to infinity”, as is there a glut of conspiracy theory maga loving oil bulls. That’s gotta be like 80% of the forces behind the market/narrative right now, and it’s gonna fade spectacularly. Keep the funny money via a sale of o/g in tranches; proceeds held in cash, awaiting a later repurchase at lower prices . In the near term, everyone outside the Gulf will be temporarily supplying whatever they can, using the forward markets to lock in > budget 'windfalls', and cutting back as soon as the region reopens. Ideally, the price spikes tip the G7 towards recession, and BTC conveniently falls like a brick . Little incentive to do greenfield investment, when it's much less capital intensive to just do consolidation M&A instead. New production primarily from efficiency gains and reduced depletion. SD
Spekulatius Posted April 4 Posted April 4 20 hours ago, ourkid8 said: Pete Hegseth has fired over 12 generals collectively. These generals know what is coming and do not agree with the direction of the war criminals that is guiding them. For context, Iran has a $15B yearly military budget and US/Israel have $1.035T and they are losing. - wow! Let me guess, the new army generals name is Jack Daniel’s and the Navy admiral is Captain Morgan.
dwy000 Posted April 4 Posted April 4 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Let me guess, the new army generals name is Jack Daniel’s and the Navy admiral is Captain Morgan. Joint Chiefs of Staff: Jack, Jim, Johnny and Jose.
Spekulatius Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: Keep the funny money via a sale of o/g in tranches; proceeds held in cash, awaiting a later repurchase at lower prices . In the near term, everyone outside the Gulf will be temporarily supplying whatever they can, using the forward markets to lock in > budget 'windfalls', and cutting back as soon as the region reopens. Ideally, the price spikes tip the G7 towards recession, and BTC conveniently falls like a brick . Little incentive to do greenfield investment, when it's much less capital intensive to just do consolidation M&A instead. New production primarily from efficiency gains and reduced depletion. SD I only own PBR A and selling that one down. I guess I can buy it again closer to $10 some day. Edited April 4 by Spekulatius
73 Reds Posted April 4 Posted April 4 (edited) 2 hours ago, ourkid8 said: “Change happens one person at a time” - Michelle Obama. Exactly - I couldn’t have said it better myself, US / Israel are the terrorist. Israel got a bloody nose last year after facing Iran H2H and they brought their larger bully this time around. - both will need to be taught a lesson so this never repeats You should read on the greater Israel project and see how much additional land Israel is planning to steal from their neighbours -SMH. You should return to your hole. And learn the consequence of "Death to America, Death to Israel". It's not a slogan or an ideology that encourages longevity for its supporters. Edited April 4 by 73 Reds missed words
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