rogermunibond Posted March 27 Posted March 27 Why would Latam countries want to align with the US when we specifically want to keep them from emigrating to the US? From the GOP white nationalist perspective, why would the US de-align with NATO when you actually want more emigration from European countries? Or is the GOP white nationalist/nativist perspective, that white women will raise their TFR above 2.1? Why would the true blue MAGA/GenZ GOP segment want to align with Zionist Israel?
Viking Posted March 27 Posted March 27 (edited) Well it looks like financial markets are just starting to grasp the significance of what is happening in the Persian Gulf: Bond yields across the curve have been slowly marching higher (50 to 60 basis point increase) over the past 4 weeks. Inflation will be increasing in the coming months - the only question is how bad it is going to be (how much and how long it persists). Depending on the average used, stock markets are down almost 10% from their recent all-time highs. A decline of 10% would officially put is in ‘correction’ territory. Of course, there is a lots of variation by sector (software stocks compared to oil & gas stocks). Of course, rising bond yields AND much lower stock prices means everything is dropping in value. But here is where the story gets even more interesting… The cause of the carnage happening in financial markets has not been addressed yet : Iran controls the Straight of Hormuz. As a result the global economy continues on its merry way towards a cliff. Every week the straight remains closed the worse the damage becomes. This has been playing out for 4 weeks now. Right in front of everyone. The really interesting part to me is how complacent everyone has been about what is happening. Although that does appear to slowly be changing. Where do we go from here? I have no idea. A good place to start might be to get familiar with Iran and what they want. They have laid out their terms. Now we can refuse to live in the real world and ignore Iran (what we have been doing for the past 4 weeks). But as we all know denial is a river in Egypt - not a good strategy to use today. The key question today is: How much pain does Iran want to exert on the US/Israel and the global economy? Put yourself in their shoes for a minute. Pretend you are the IRGC. What would you want to do right now? If that doesn't scare the hell out of you nothing will. (Like I said earlier… you might want to get familiar with their terms.) To state the obvious: I am not ‘cheerleading’ the IRGC. Or how the war is going. I am trying to understand what has happened, where we are at and most importantly where we might be going. As uncomfortable as that might be for some… PS: Trump is a change agent. The geopolitical world was already quaking. This war has the potential to accelerate this process. (Can anyone say ‘every man for himself?’) Edited March 27 by Viking
Parsad Posted March 27 Posted March 27 3 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: Why would Latam countries want to align with the US when we specifically want to keep them from emigrating to the US? From the GOP white nationalist perspective, why would the US de-align with NATO when you actually want more emigration from European countries? Or is the GOP white nationalist/nativist perspective, that white women will raise their TFR above 2.1? Why would the true blue MAGA/GenZ GOP segment want to align with Zionist Israel? LOL! MAGA land is a fairy tale land! Cheers!
cubsfan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 One can make statistics lie any way they choose. We all know that the USA has carried the load for NATO for decades. And there is nothing wrong with a split when you know you don't have each other's back. Europe has free-loaded off of the USA defense wise for decades - so much so - that even the world's greatest Navy, the British Navy, is a shell of itself now. So in addition to being a very weak military alliance, where one entity supplies all the funding, the USA can't trust NATO. From a strategic view - the USA has much different priorities now: fix our own country & get control of the Western Hemisphere. All is going very well, but it's a huge job - and will go on for years, if MAGA is driving the country. We don't have time for allies that don't share our priorities - and of course, why would Europe care about the USA and the Western Hemisphere?? So a divorce is perfectly reasonable and appropriate when you have lost trust in your ally. Most of the time - both parties end up much happier apart. It's a sensible move instead of listening to your partner bitch all day. I can see it coming, and hope it does. We can't get out of the United Nations fast enough, then, hopefully NATO as well. Your lovely chart shows the USA as "slacker" #7 - so you should be delighted to jettison the USA as a perennial "non-contributor".
Parsad Posted March 27 Posted March 27 4 minutes ago, Viking said: Well it looks like financial markets are just starting to grasp the significance of what is happening in the Persian Gulf: Bond yields across the curve have been slowly marching higher (50 to 60 basis point increase) over the past 4 weeks. Inflation will be increasing in the coming months - the only question is how bad it is going to be (how much and how long it persists). Depending on the average used, stock markets are down almost 10% from their recent all-time highs. A decline of 10% would officially put is in ‘correction’ territory. Of course, there is a lots of variation by sector (software stocks compared to oil & gas stocks). Of course, rising bond yields AND much lower stock prices means everything is dropping in value. But here is where the story gets even more interesting… The cause of the carnage happening in financial markets has not been addressed yet : Iran controls the Straight of Hormuz. As a result the global economy continues on its merry way towards a cliff. Every week the straight remains closed the worse the damage becomes. This has been playing out for 4 weeks now. Right in front of everyone. The really interesting part to me is how complacent everyone has been about what is happening. Although that does appear to slowly be changing. Where do we go from here? I have no idea. A good place to start might be to get familiar with Iran and what they want. They have laid out their terms. Now we can refuse to live in the real world and ignore Iran (what we have been doing for the past 4 weeks). But as we all know denial is a river in Egypt - not a good strategy to use today. The key question today is: How much pain does Iran want to exert on the US/Israel and the global economy? Put yourself in their shoes for a minute. Pretend you are the IRGC. What would you want to do right now? If that doesn't scare the hell out of you nothing will. (Like I said earlier… you might want to get familiar with their terms.) To state the obvious: I am not ‘cheerleading’ the IRGC. Or how the war is going. I am trying to understand what has happened, where we are at and most importantly where we might be going. As uncomfortable as that might be for some… PS: Trump is a change agent. The geopolitical world was already quaking. This has the potential to accelerate this process. (Can anyone say ‘every man for himself?’) He starts to TACO within two weeks! The "change agent" is still a chicken shit and will TACO. He's getting it from both ends...Iran/Israel (neither is listening)...Congress, voters (no funding, mid-term elections). The Art of the Steal-mister has to turtle and coverup to save face...big TACO Tuesday either this week or next! Once it is all done...he's essentially returned everything to the status quo...markets recover...he'll call them "big wins" as the mid-terms get closer. Cheers!
Viking Posted March 27 Posted March 27 6 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: Why would Latam countries want to align with the US when we specifically want to keep them from emigrating to the US? From the GOP white nationalist perspective, why would the US de-align with NATO when you actually want more emigration from European countries? Or is the GOP white nationalist/nativist perspective, that white women will raise their TFR above 2.1? Why would the true blue MAGA/GenZ GOP segment want to align with Zionist Israel? You assume the US (under Trump) cares what other countries think. It looks to me like Trump decides what he wants - and then tries to take it. My guess is we will be seeing much more of this moving forward. He will, after all, need to manufacture a distraction soon, to get everyone to think about something other than Iran (hat tip to @dealraker for that last line).
Red Lion Posted March 27 Posted March 27 3 minutes ago, Parsad said: Once it is all done...he's essentially returned everything to the status quo...markets recover... I'm far from an expert on geopolitics, but it seems to be like it's going to be damn near impossible to return things to the status quo. Do you think it's likely that Iran is going to stop shooting at everything it can reach (especially Jewish people and energy infrastructure) if Trump just TACO's now?
cubsfan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 8 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: Why would Latam countries want to align with the US when we specifically want to keep them from emigrating to the US? From the GOP white nationalist perspective, why would the US de-align with NATO when you actually want more emigration from European countries? Or is the GOP white nationalist/nativist perspective, that white women will raise their TFR above 2.1? Why would the true blue MAGA/GenZ GOP segment want to align with Zionist Israel? It's already happening. Venezuela is a home run for the Western Hemisphere. Cuba will be next - and we will see how that works out. Panama is straightened out. All these countries need to understand is they are far better off aligned with the USA - rather than the Russians and "Belt & Road" guys. Look what those efforts yielded for their economies in Venezuela & Cuba. Fix those countries and the pressure to leave for the United States goes down dramatically. But feel free to open up Canada to all of them - they're good people. BTW - didn't you mean to say the GOP "White Supremacist" movement?? The one that hates women, blacks, brown people, and Jews?
Viking Posted March 27 Posted March 27 4 minutes ago, Parsad said: He starts to TACO within two weeks! The "change agent" is still a chicken shit and will TACO. He's getting it from both ends...Iran/Israel (neither is listening)...Congress, voters (no funding, mid-term elections). The Art of the Steal-mister has to turtle and coverup to save face...big TACO Tuesday either this week or next! Once it is all done...he's essentially returned everything to the status quo...markets recover...he'll call them "big wins" as the mid-terms get closer. Cheers! You are assuming Iran lets him TACO. Iran is going to exact a very high price (in terms of concessions) to end the war. The US’s partner (Israel) will not be happy if Iran emerges from the war in a stronger strategic position than when they entered. I hope there is a path to regime change in Iran. But that outcome doesn’t look likely to me (and yes I am a novice on the war/region). Does the US/Iran/Gulf countries decide to try for regime change one more time? What a crazy situation.
changegonnacome Posted March 27 Posted March 27 (edited) 1 hour ago, cubsfan said: NATO is definitely useless and have proved it. Good time for the US to re-think our role in NATO along with the United Nations - and get out while the getting is good. I dont think you ever internalized my suggestion that you look at NATO not as some drain on the US.....but rather as an organization that gives the US strategic leverage over Europe on important geopolitical matters where they might otherwise diverge.....NATO costs the US money but in doing so Europe is dependent on the US security umbrella it provides and in return the countries within it that actually matter (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain) sacrifice a considerable amount of strategic autonomy one can even say sovereignty on matters of trade, foreign policy etc etc.... I find it ironic that in an era when the US, for the first time since WWII finds itself with a worthy peer competitor in China that it would start to incrementally dismantle the strategic leverage it has over allies in Europe and Asia (its dumb)......I can assure you Chinese strategist in Beijing spend considerable mental energy trying to envisage ways to lessen the United States dominance & control in Asia and the European theaters.....its quite amusing to watch a US President weaken himself what China would give its left arm to construct and indeed is attempting to construct, in a modest way, with the belt and road initiative. I asked Claude to get the theoretical frameworks for you.....if you ever wanted to dive deeper and rise above Trump's, frankly 3rd grade strategic view of global alliance structuring that essentially strengthens the US's dominance now and over the long pull: "This perspective maps onto several overlapping frameworks in international relations, but the most precise term is the "binding" theory of alliances — the idea that alliances like NATO don't just deter external threats but serve to bind allies to the leading power's strategic orbit, constraining their autonomy and giving the hegemon leverage. A few related concepts that capture different facets of what's being described: Hegemonic stability theory is the broader framework — the US provides security as a "public good," but the price of admission is deference on the issues that matter to Washington. The security umbrella isn't charity; it's the purchase price of alignment. "Empire by invitation" is Geir Lundestad's term for how European states voluntarily subordinated strategic autonomy to the US after WWII, essentially inviting American dominance because the alternative (Soviet threat, intra-European rivalry) was worse. G. John Ikenberry's concept of liberal hegemonic order describes how the US used institutions like NATO to lock in its position — allies get protection and predictability, but in exchange they operate within a US-led institutional architecture that channels their behavior. And of course there's Lord Ismay's famous quip about NATO's purpose: keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down — which is really the bluntest articulation of the control function. The irony the passage identifies — dismantling leverage over allies precisely when a peer competitor emerges — is essentially the realist critique of the current posture" Edited March 27 by changegonnacome
cubsfan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, Viking said: The US’s partner (Israel) will not be happy if Iran emerges from the war in a stronger strategic position than when they entered. This almost gets comical. Yeah, Iran comes out of the war in a position of world dominance. LOL
Gregmal Posted March 27 Posted March 27 The thing is, none of this, in quantifiable terms, impacts the US in a way that hasn’t been seen before. These oil assholes are some of the biggest drama queens around. Every time oil moves a few percent it’s the beginning of the end. Gosh they’ve already moved on to $300 oil, when frankly, they still owe us the$200 oil they’ve been forecasting for the last decade. With 20% of the product being SOH focused, the only way oil even goes to 140-150 is with the help of the paper traders in NY. Which supply/demand dictates will be short lived. $4 gas? $5 gas? We ve been there, done that, and lived. Recession? lol ok we ve had those too. Folks need to lay off the drama and chill out. Go have a beer. It’s Friday.
John Hjorth Posted March 27 Posted March 27 (edited) 15 hours ago, cubsfan said: One can make statistics lie any way they choose. We all know that the USA has carried the load for NATO for decades. And there is nothing wrong with a split when you know you don't have each other's back. Europe has free-loaded off of the USA defense wise for decades - so much so - that even the world's greatest Navy, the British Navy, is a shell of itself now. So in addition to being a very weak military alliance, where one entity supplies all the funding, the USA can't trust NATO. From a strategic view - the USA has much different priorities now: fix our own country & get control of the Western Hemisphere. All is going very well, but it's a huge job - and will go on for years, if MAGA is driving the country. We don't have time for allies that don't share our priorities - and of course, why would Europe care about the USA and the Western Hemisphere?? So a divorce is perfectly reasonable and appropriate when you have lost trust in your ally. Most of the time - both parties end up much happier apart. It's a sensible move instead of listening to your partner bitch all day. I can see it coming, and hope it does. We can't get out of the United Nations fast enough, then, hopefully NATO as well. Your lovely chart shows the USA as "slacker" #7 - so you should be delighted to jettison the USA as a perennial "non-contributor". That's not really the main point here, Mike [ @cubsfan ], The main point here is, that this move together with Israel is an agressive move, without consent from anyone, while the NATO pact is defensive, only. But that doesen't bother your POTUS one whit. He just continues his *BS* talk, offending allies further, whose heals just go deaper in the soil! This Iran / Strait of Hormuth turd is Israels and USAs in combined ownership. Now please own it! It's really funny, that when the talk is about the war in Ukraine, some here still post Europe should really take ownership of that turd. - - - o 0 o - - - Edit : Changed address from @Red Lion to Mike [ @cubsfan ]. Edited March 28 by John Hjorth Changed address from Red lion to Mike
Parsad Posted March 27 Posted March 27 40 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Yeah, it's like a failing marriage that worked for a while. When it's bad for years on end - the best thing is to not fight it and get a divorce. Re-align with Israel and the Western Hemisphere is definitely the best way to go. LOL! That's actually a good analogy. Stay miserable for the kids! Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 27 Posted March 27 9 minutes ago, Viking said: You are assuming Iran lets him TACO. Iran is going to exact a very high price (in terms of concessions) to end the war. The US’s partner (Israel) will not be happy if Iran emerges from the war in a stronger strategic position than when they entered. I hope there is a path to regime change in Iran. But that outcome doesn’t look likely to me (and yes I am a novice on the war/region). Does the US/Iran/Gulf countries decide to try for regime change one more time? What a crazy situation. In a good negotiation, everyone comes out a bit unhappy...Iran will have to suck it up a bit too. If they do create global chaos, their regime won't be safe from inside or outside. Israel has no foot to stand on if the U.S. stops selling them weapons or restricts use of the missile shield. Detente will be the only option for everyone to save themselves and save face. Unhappy compromise. Cheers!
cwericb Posted March 27 Posted March 27 1 hour ago, cubsfan said: NATO is definitely useless and have proved it. Good time for the US to re-think our role in NATO along with the United Nations - and get out while the getting is good. That's the only hope for the Europeans to get serious about their defense. Cubs I thought you had a better understanding of NATO, you bitch about it all the time. Just FYI, NATO is a DEFENSIVE alliance, not an OFFENSIVE alliance. If any member of NATO is attacked, the other members are then obligated to assist. You can't just up and decide to go to war with some other country with no discussion with other allies and then, not ask, but then Demand those other countries (who you tariff and constantly insult) come and bail you out when when you get in over your head. You broke it, you buy it. And by the way, it is your country that not only started this war, but your country has actively threatened to attack other members of NATO and then has the audacity to demand those countries come to the US assistance now. Talk about deranged. You can't make this stuff up!!
Parsad Posted March 27 Posted March 27 19 minutes ago, Red Lion said: I'm far from an expert on geopolitics, but it seems to be like it's going to be damn near impossible to return things to the status quo. Do you think it's likely that Iran is going to stop shooting at everything it can reach (especially Jewish people and energy infrastructure) if Trump just TACO's now? Everything will be safe for 10 years and then it will start all over again. This blood feud has lasted millennia! Iran will get to keep their infrastructure, oil and buried nuclear material. Israel gets peace for 10 years. U.S. gets to pull out of this and call it a win for everyone! Cheers!
LC Posted March 27 Posted March 27 Iran-linked hackers have broken into FBI Director Kash Patel's personal email inbox, publishing photographs of the director and other documents to the internet, the hackers and the bureau said on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/iran-linked-hackers-claim-breach-of-fbi-directors-personal-email-doj-official-2026-03-27/ LOL - I'd say his password was probably 123456 but I'm not sure he can count that high!
cubsfan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: I dont think you ever internalized my suggestion that you look at NATO not as some drain on the US.....but rather as an organization that gives the US strategic leverage over Europe on important geopolitical matters where they might otherwise diverge.....NATO costs the US money but in doing so Europe is dependent on the US security umbrella it provides and in return the countries within it that actually matter (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain) sacrifice a considerable amount of strategic autonomy one can even say sovereignty on matters of trade, foreign policy etc etc.... I find it ironic that in an era when the US, for the first time since WWII finds itself with a worthy peer competitor in China that it would start to incrementally dismantle the strategic leverage it has over allies in Europe and Asia (its dumb)......I can assure you Chinese strategist in Beijing spend considerable mental energy trying to envisage ways to lessen the United States dominance & control in Asia and the European theaters.....its quite amusing to watch a US President weaken himself what China would give its left arm to construct and indeed is attempting to construct, in a modest way, with the belt and road initiative. I asked Claude to get the theoretical frameworks for you.....if you ever wanted to dive deeper and rise above Trump's, frankly 3rd grade strategic view of global alliance structuring that essentially strengthens the US's dominance now and over the long pull: "This perspective maps onto several overlapping frameworks in international relations, but the most precise term is the "binding" theory of alliances — the idea that alliances like NATO don't just deter external threats but serve to bind allies to the leading power's strategic orbit, constraining their autonomy and giving the hegemon leverage. A few related concepts that capture different facets of what's being described: Hegemonic stability theory is the broader framework — the US provides security as a "public good," but the price of admission is deference on the issues that matter to Washington. The security umbrella isn't charity; it's the purchase price of alignment. "Empire by invitation" is Geir Lundestad's term for how European states voluntarily subordinated strategic autonomy to the US after WWII, essentially inviting American dominance because the alternative (Soviet threat, intra-European rivalry) was worse. G. John Ikenberry's concept of liberal hegemonic order describes how the US used institutions like NATO to lock in its position — allies get protection and predictability, but in exchange they operate within a US-led institutional architecture that channels their behavior. And of course there's Lord Ismay's famous quip about NATO's purpose: keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down — which is really the bluntest articulation of the control function. The irony the passage identifies — dismantling leverage over allies precisely when a peer competitor emerges — is essentially the realist critique of the current posture" No actually - I have. You made that point a few years ago - and I thought it was brilliant and correct. I told you I learned a few thing from you, aside from your love of Mearsheimer... Trouble is: you have a new sheriff in town and a whole new movement in this country. If the Europeans are stupid enough to align themselves with China - they deserve their fate. They have already aligned with Radical Islam and Climate Change to endanger their continent. The USA has narrowly dodged that bullet. The USA can handle China with other allies - look what a disaster their military technology yielded Iran and Venezuela. So divorce may be the best option.
cubsfan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 11 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: That's not really the main point here, @Red Lion, The main point here is, that this move together with Israel is an agressive move, without consent from anyone, while the NATO pact is defensive, only. But that doesen't bother your POTUS one whit. He just continues his *BS* talk, offending allies further, whose heals just go deaper in the soil! This Iran / Strait of Hormuth turd is Israels and USAs in combined ownership. Now please own it! It's really funny, that when the talk is about the war in Ukraine, some here still post Europe should really take ownership of that turd. You are perfectly expressing the reasons for the divorce. We are no longer good allies together. I'd much rather rely on Israel and build new allies from there.
cubsfan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 10 minutes ago, cwericb said: Cubs I thought you had a better understanding of NATO, you bitch about it all the time. Just FYI, NATO is a DEFENSIVE alliance, not an OFFENSIVE alliance. If any member of NATO is attacked, the other members are then obligated to assist. You can't just up and decide to go to war with some other country with no discussion with other allies and then, not ask, but then Demand those other countries (who you tariff and constantly insult) come and bail you out when when you get in over your head. You broke it, you buy it. And by the way, it is your country that not only started this war, but your country has actively threatened to attack other members of NATO and then has the audacity to demand those countries come to the US assistance now. Talk about deranged. You can't make this stuff up!! Exactly - all that bitching from the NATO members for the last 5 years about the US fighting in Ukraine which is NOT a NATO member.
Red Lion Posted March 27 Posted March 27 8 minutes ago, Parsad said: Everything will be safe for 10 years and then it will start all over again. This blood feud has lasted millennia! Iran will get to keep their infrastructure, oil and buried nuclear material. Israel gets peace for 10 years. U.S. gets to pull out of this and call it a win for everyone! Cheers! Well I hope you're right, because I think everything being safe for 10 years would be the second best possible outcome (short of regime change).
cubsfan Posted March 27 Posted March 27 11 minutes ago, Parsad said: Iran will get to keep their infrastructure, oil and buried nuclear material. Israel gets peace for 10 years. U.S. gets to pull out of this and call it a win for everyone! Cheers! It's a beautiful thing for 10 years, isn't it?? A defenseless Iran that gets bombed every time they choose to restart their nuke program. All it takes is courage and strength.
Parsad Posted March 27 Posted March 27 16 minutes ago, LC said: Iran-linked hackers have broken into FBI Director Kash Patel's personal email inbox, publishing photographs of the director and other documents to the internet, the hackers and the bureau said on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/iran-linked-hackers-claim-breach-of-fbi-directors-personal-email-doj-official-2026-03-27/ LOL - I'd say his password was probably 123456 but I'm not sure he can count that high! You have to admit, Iranian cyber hackers must be really good to copy his retina scan with those bugged out eyes! Cheers!
John Hjorth Posted March 27 Posted March 27 16 minutes ago, LC said: ... LOL - I'd say his password was probably 123456 but I'm not sure he can count that high! ... , @LC!, It's great!, - it's Friday!
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