Parsad Posted March 23 Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, UK said: Maybe it is just me and everyone keep saying this, but is it really still so:)? Less than before...when he looked like Peking Duck...but still more orange than normal. Cheers!
dwy000 Posted March 23 Posted March 23 23 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Yes but these trades are soooo easy to see which is why it's just crazy to me why we get all this whining about granulars. "hes said he talked to so and so"...."no he didnt he s lying"..."oh here's a twitter post"...."blah blah blah the walls are closing in"....its so amusing. Meanwhile, at the beginning, pretty boldly, we were told the objective was to bash their weapons/nukes and be done in 4-5 weeks".....well? They can follow every last Truth Social Tweet but not a calendar LOL??? So you're taking his timing claims as truth? I think we are still waiting on the Healthcare plan that was promised in 2 weeks - 7 years ago. And the original objective wasn't to destroy the nukes - after all, those were permanently obliterated 8 months ago - it was regime change. Of course that has changed many times as well. There no plan. Its just whatever he feels like saying this week. And the cult laps it up.
Blake Hampton Posted March 23 Posted March 23 13 minutes ago, Castanza said: Blake, you are on here with access to an endless feed of quality investment analysis and choose do nothing but discuss "The Big One" just around the corner and how Oil, real estate and bonds are the only safe asset classes for the next 20 years. Now you're lecturing everyone on news sources and how they need to "self curate" like yourself to "avoid bias or unactual information". Sounds like you've got it all figured out! Bonds are a terrible place to be. Treasury bills aren't. They are not the same.
UK Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: Treasury bills aren't. Only if you are not staying here forever or for too long:) Edited March 23 by UK
cubsfan Posted March 23 Posted March 23 58 minutes ago, Viking said: @cubsfan, personal attack? Really? I am happy to debate ideas. You are doing a fine job. Keep up with the "Iran now has maximum leverage" schtick. In your view, all the dead military & IRGC leaders willingly sacrificed their lives for "maximum leverage". You really are as silly as the Monty Python Black Knight. What battle have you ever seen where the entire Navy has been sunk in order to achieve "maximum leverage"? When has one's Air Force been sacrificed for "maximum" leverage? When has the ability to destroy one's national wealth in one fell swoop given one "maximum leverage"? Iran knows the message they received about Kharg Island - means it's in the hands of the USA any day Trump wants it to be. Your "debate points" about Iran being in control are beyond ridiculous. Iran: "Yeah, we're all dead and our ability to fight is almost gone - but we are in control - you better watch out Trump!"
Blake Hampton Posted March 23 Posted March 23 Trump is our God-King and Jerome Powell our Satan. We are witnessing the rapture.
Blake Hampton Posted March 23 Posted March 23 I think that when the Treasury market finally goes, we're going to witness the worst credit crisis in human history. A lot of it is dependent on faith. Faith can be easily lost. When the laws and nature of money finally make themselves known, there will be no more room for delusion. It'll all be washed away as if they were a flood.
Castanza Posted March 23 Posted March 23 14 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: Bonds are a terrible place to be. Treasury bills aren't. They are not the same. Blake: "The US is about to meet its demise due to financial mismanagement. Biggest crash in history with massive inflation coming" also Blake: "I want to tie the majority of my net worth to the most politically influenced asset classes and non-inflation protected govt backed assets" Make it make sense to me?
cubsfan Posted March 23 Posted March 23 1 hour ago, Viking said: @Parsad, you are assuming Trump, the Israeli’s and Iran are rational actors. I hope you are right and the worst is behind us. Below is what Iran wants. They have been very public in stating their aims. They have maximum leverage right now. Why would they give that up? Especially given everyone knows that Trump can’t be trusted to actually honour any potential deal (even his allies know this). It really is a crazy situation. I think there is a decent chance that Iran will ask for more than Trump/Israeli’s are willing to give. In that case, Iran would continue to block the straight and the war would have to continue. Financial markets are basically saying this war is over. Core Iranian Demands to End the Conflict 1) Immediate cessation of attacks (non-negotiable starting point) Iran consistently says the first prerequisite is that the U.S. and Israel stop all military operations This is framed as: “we did not start this war” → therefore the aggressor must stop first 2) Guarantees against future attacks Iran wants binding, enforceable guarantees that strikes will not resume They are explicitly rejecting: Temporary ceasefires “pause and resume” arrangements This is about regime security, not just tactical de-escalation. 3) Compensation / reparations Tehran is demanding financial compensation for war damage Some reports go further: Full reparations from the U.S. and Israel This is both economic and symbolic (accountability). 4) Withdrawal / rollback of U.S. presence in the region Iran has called for a U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf / regional military footprint This ties into a broader strategic goal: Reducing U.S. deterrence capability near Iran 5) Recognition of Iran’s rights and status Includes: Recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights” (often interpreted as sovereignty + nuclear rights) This is ideological: Iran wants political legitimacy, not just a ceasefire 6) Punishment or accountability for “aggressors” Senior Iranian officials are demanding justice/punishment for those who initiated attacks This makes negotiations difficult because: It directly conflicts with U.S./Israeli positions Wow - now that takes the cake Viking. More delusions of grandeur. Iran will be dictating terms to Uncle Trump. Damn - you sound like Hermann Goering dictating the terms of his surrender to General Eisenhower before he was due to be hanged.
Viking Posted March 23 Posted March 23 6 minutes ago, cubsfan said: You are doing a fine job. Keep up with the "Iran now has maximum leverage" schtick. In your view, all the dead military & IRGC leaders willingly sacrificed their lives for "maximum leverage". You really are as silly as the Monty Python Black Knight. What battle have you ever seen where the entire Navy has been sunk in order to achieve "maximum leverage"? When has one's Air Force been sacrificed for "maximum" leverage? When has the ability to destroy one's national wealth in one fell swoop given one "maximum leverage"? Iran knows the message they received about Kharg Island - means it's in the hands of the USA any day Trump wants it to be. Your "debate points" about Iran being in control are beyond ridiculous. Iran: "Yeah, we're all dead and our ability to fight is almost gone - but we are in control - you better watch out Trump!" @cubsfan, the US/Israeli’s have a massive military advantage. They appear to have performed each of their tactical missions very well. My focus is on the Straight of Hormuz. The last time checked, Iran was in control of the straight - Iran is deciding who gets through. A secondary point is Iran’s ability to send missiles and drones to destroy energy/civilian infrastructure in the Gulf - I think that threat remains. So despite the tactical success of the armies of the US/Israeli’s, it appears to me like Iran still has a great deal of leverage. My goal is primarily to understand what is going on. (And yes, I do like to use irony to make my points…)
Blake Hampton Posted March 23 Posted March 23 5 minutes ago, Castanza said: Blake: "The US is about to meet its demise due to financial mismanagement. Biggest crash in history with massive inflation coming" also Blake: "I want to tie the majority of my net worth to the most politically influenced asset classes and non-inflation protected govt backed assets" Make it make sense to me? I will likely never be able to convince you of anything. If you actually care, go read more about it.
Castanza Posted March 23 Posted March 23 5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I will likely never be able to convince you of anything. If you actually care, go read more about it. it’s not that you won’t convince me. It’s that I find it irrelevant to your investing. I’ll take my chances owning cash producing assets than sitting in the sidelines pegged to inflation waiting for some market crash.
UK Posted March 23 Posted March 23 12 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I think that when the Treasury market finally goes, we're going to witness the worst credit crisis in human history. A lot of it is dependent on faith. Faith can be easily lost. When the laws and nature of money finally make themselves known, there will be no more room for delusion. It'll all be washed away as if they were a flood. So you are planing to weather all this by being in treasury bills or what is your game plan for all this?
cubsfan Posted March 23 Posted March 23 7 minutes ago, Viking said: @cubsfan, the US/Israeli’s have a massive military advantage. They appear to have performed each of their tactical missions very well. My focus is on the Straight of Hormuz. The last time checked, Iran was in control of the straight - Iran is deciding who gets through. A secondary point is Iran’s ability to send missiles and drones to destroy energy/civilian infrastructure in the Gulf - I think that threat remains. So despite the tactical success of the armies of the US/Israeli’s, it appears to me like Iran still has a great deal of leverage. My goal is primarily to understand what is going on. (And yes, I do like to use irony to make my points…) "Tactical success" - try "Total strategic dominance" "Great deal of leverage?" - try "Self-Preservation" Who EXACTLY has a "great deal of leverage" - they're all dead. Every time one of the monsters says "Death to America" - they are eliminated. You talk like Iran is dealing from a position of strength - when the fact is they are being obliterated. Your talk is the same talk we heard from the Hamas leaders in Gaza. The same talk we heard from the Houthi's in Yemen. "The US and Israel better watch out - cause we really mean it when we say Death To America!" It's so obvious they are trying to save their own skins - you just hate Trump so much - you can't even be objective.
Blake Hampton Posted March 23 Posted March 23 According to the Trumpers: Buffett is wrong. Watsa is wrong. Dimon is wrong. Dalio is wrong. Druckenmiller, the very man who mentored Warsh and worked alongside Bessent, is wrong. The WSJ, FT, NYT, and The Economist are all fake news. Cash is trash, yet worrying about inflation is supposedly "stupid." Delusion.
Xerxes Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) Trump and Buffett do have some commonality: they both deeply believe that when it comes to releasing apocalyptic Tweets and/or releasing a 10K, to do so when the market are closed in NY. Edited March 23 by Xerxes
Castanza Posted March 23 Posted March 23 28 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: According to the Trumpers: Buffett is wrong. Watsa is wrong. Dimon is wrong. Dalio is wrong. Druckenmiller, the very man who mentored Warsh and worked alongside Bessent, is wrong. The WSJ, FT, NYT, and The Economist are all fake news. Cash is trash, yet worrying about inflation is supposedly "stupid." Delusion.
Gregmal Posted March 23 Posted March 23 1 hour ago, dwy000 said: So you're taking his timing claims as truth? I think we are still waiting on the Healthcare plan that was promised in 2 weeks - 7 years ago. And the original objective wasn't to destroy the nukes - after all, those were permanently obliterated 8 months ago - it was regime change. Of course that has changed many times as well. There no plan. Its just whatever he feels like saying this week. And the cult laps it up. Every situation is different, sport. Now back to the kids table!
Gregmal Posted March 23 Posted March 23 Just now, Castanza said: I was gonna post the same. Then I realized that Blake doesnt own; -Buffett -Watsa -Dimon That he has no awareness of how awful some of the track records hes quoting are; is too tone-deaf to realize those track records and now becoming his, doesnt seem to realize that cash and inflation are incompatible, and thinks reading the NYT will fix this... Who is the joke really on?
dwy000 Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Every situation is different, sport. Now back to the kids table! Every situation is different but the execution is the same. No plan. Changing objectives. Led by incompetence. And the cult laps it up. Edited March 23 by dwy000
Malmqky Posted March 23 Posted March 23 Buffett has more or less claimed with a small portfolio he’d return ~50% annually by ignoring macro and focusing on micro/small caps, like in his partnership days. I for one believe him...seems others don't realize the last 20 years of Berkshire have looked dramatically different than what Buffett would prefer to do, due to the size of Berkshire.
John Hjorth Posted March 23 Posted March 23 1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said: According to the Trumpers: Buffett is wrong. Watsa is wrong. Dimon is wrong. Dalio is wrong. Druckenmiller, the very man who mentored Warsh and worked alongside Bessent, is wrong. The WSJ, FT, NYT, and The Economist are all fake news. Cash is trash, yet worrying about inflation is supposedly "stupid." Delusion. 39 minutes ago, Castanza said: 34 minutes ago, Gregmal said: I was gonna post the same. Then I realized that Blake doesnt own; -Buffett -Watsa -Dimon That he has no awareness of how awful some of the track records hes quoting are; is too tone-deaf to realize those track records and now becoming his, doesnt seem to realize that cash and inflation are incompatible, and thinks reading the NYT will fix this... Who is the joke really on? 23 minutes ago, Malmqky said: Buffett has more or less claimed with a small portfolio he’d return ~50% annually by ignoring macro and focusing on micro/small caps, like in his partnership days. I for one believe him...seems others don't realize the last 20 years of Berkshire have looked dramatically different than what Buffett would prefer to do, due to the size of Berkshire. - And then the whole thing starts all over again! - Perhaps it would be an idea to blame Buffett for this whole Iranian bloody mess?! - Just to break the malignant circle! Please don't let Blake [ @Blake Hampton ] carry fuel to the fire here.
Gregmal Posted March 23 Posted March 23 13 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: - And then the whole thing starts all over again! - Perhaps it would be an idea to blame Buffett for this whole Iranian bloody mess?! - Just to break the malignant circle! Please don't let Blake [ @Blake Hampton ] carry fuel to the fire here. We re just having fun. I doubt the volatility related to this mini “war” is over yet either, but at some point we need to have fun with the doom callers. We re coming up on the one year anniversary of liberation day, when many of the same doom dorks did….the exact same thing! Will they pull a Houdini when it doesn’t pan out like last time? That remains to be seen.
dealraker Posted March 23 Posted March 23 I think the only thing Trump should fear is Mr. Market. I think Mr. Market owns the economy - not visa versa - and while Trump owns the media and thus all of us I think he would be severely weakened by a lengthy down market - that of course took the economy with it. Right now? Trump knows he can run Mr. Market up to any level he desires with a tweet. That makes him very secure for now.
cubsfan Posted March 23 Posted March 23 39 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: - Perhaps it would be an idea to blame Buffett for this whole Iranian bloody mess?! That's a good one John - don't give them any more silly ideas - we've heard them all now!
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