cubsfan Posted March 23 Posted March 23 15 minutes ago, Viking said: What did we learn over the past 24 hours. Trump is a master communicator - financial markets are loving it. What else did we learn? The US is not going to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power infrastructure. (Can we say Iran won that game of chicken?) What about the Straight of Hormuz… what did we learn? Nothing has changed… and the status quo is likely to remain in place until Friday. The bad news is only small amounts of oil/LNG/fertilizer will be getting through. The longer this continues the more disruptive the consequences for the global economy - nothing has changed on that front (what is happening versus what is being said). The good news is we may have reached a short term stalemate - the US/Israel will stop bombing Iran and Iran will stop bombing the region. The fact the war is not escalating is good news. Where do we go from here? Hopefully we get a resolution of some sort this week. Because if we don’t, and more US resources get moved into the region, we could see things escalate again. What a crazy situation. PS: Here is where things get really interesting. If you are Trump and you want to escalate you need a reason. Well now that ‘peace talks’ have started… well, if they don’t result in a deal… well, Trump will not have choice… he will have his reason to escalate: he tried real hard at negotiations - but the Iranian’s were not interested in peace. He will have manufactured his reason to escalate the war. The best part? Whether actual negotiations are going on actually doesn’t matter. Yes, he is a diabolical genius. You should write for The Economist - you're perfect!
dealraker Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Gregmal said: I’m not really sure what the desired MAGA headline is, regime change? The libtard one is clearly that no matter what occurs, Trump messed up and chickened out. They seem incredibly invested in that almost regardless of what the headlines are. Think reality is that the US and Iran broke a bunch of shit in Iran full bully style and when it suites their interests will let the world get back to normal. I find it interesting that you continually focus on the gotcha thing and that a libtard said this or that. To me Greg Trump dominates the media, he owns the narrative on all media and he is literally sprinting past anyone who is out and about trying to say something about something not working. Trump to me is just masterful at his owning the focus and narrative of all media...and thus all of us and what we discuss. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure that many support Trump simply because he can go on an interview and make that setting into anything he wants. It doesn't have to be logical or truthful, nor do the words he dramatically sets out need to be sustained past a few minutes...before an entirely new presentation or direction is dramatically delivered. Yes, if you like a powerful one-source one-man control government then why in hell would you not love Donald Trump? Those that question him, those that say he's not being wildly successful? Hell, they are dismissed, dismissed successfully time after time. Make that argument and watch how irrelevant you are. No, I don't think it is the "media" questioning or condemning Trump that's the main game, I think it is Trump running around with a sledgehammer while little librarian types run for their lives. Trump owns this era; he owns it more than anyone ever! I can easily see why anyone wanting a one-stop-shopping dominant force literally can't get enough of Trump. He's just winging it day-to-day; the man has more confidence right now than I've ever seen him--- and really more than any man/pres or whatever that I've ever seen. We only discuss what Trump wants us to discuss. All discussion, support or condemnation, is nothing but pouring fuel on Trump's dominance. Edited March 23 by dealraker
Viking Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Parsad said: Eventually self-preservation tends to win out. It's very rare when people will sacrifice everything and everyone...World War I and II. Especially without any other outside support. While the U.S. had Israel, there wasn't much other support...Iran had zero support really...can't fight a large-scale war alone these days. Not with such high deficits and debt all around the world! I think the worst of this is over...but if Iran makes a fuss, Trump will bluster again...and then it will chaotic a bit longer. Cheers! @Parsad, you are assuming Trump, the Israeli’s and Iran are rational actors. I hope you are right and the worst is behind us. Below is what Iran wants. They have been very public in stating their aims. They have maximum leverage right now. Why would they give that up? Especially given everyone knows that Trump can’t be trusted to actually honour any potential deal (even his allies know this). It really is a crazy situation. I think there is a decent chance that Iran will ask for more than Trump/Israeli’s are willing to give. In that case, Iran would continue to block the straight and the war would have to continue. Financial markets are basically saying this war is over. Core Iranian Demands to End the Conflict 1) Immediate cessation of attacks (non-negotiable starting point) Iran consistently says the first prerequisite is that the U.S. and Israel stop all military operations This is framed as: “we did not start this war” → therefore the aggressor must stop first 2) Guarantees against future attacks Iran wants binding, enforceable guarantees that strikes will not resume They are explicitly rejecting: Temporary ceasefires “pause and resume” arrangements This is about regime security, not just tactical de-escalation. 3) Compensation / reparations Tehran is demanding financial compensation for war damage Some reports go further: Full reparations from the U.S. and Israel This is both economic and symbolic (accountability). 4) Withdrawal / rollback of U.S. presence in the region Iran has called for a U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf / regional military footprint This ties into a broader strategic goal: Reducing U.S. deterrence capability near Iran 5) Recognition of Iran’s rights and status Includes: Recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights” (often interpreted as sovereignty + nuclear rights) This is ideological: Iran wants political legitimacy, not just a ceasefire 6) Punishment or accountability for “aggressors” Senior Iranian officials are demanding justice/punishment for those who initiated attacks This makes negotiations difficult because: It directly conflicts with U.S./Israeli positions Edited March 23 by Viking
Xerxes Posted March 23 Posted March 23 The different views and analysis posted here completely ignores the divergent objectives of U.S. and that of Israel. And more importantly the Gulf shiekhdoms as they are stakeholders as well. U.S. is looking for its “Delcy” and doesn’t want state fracture and chaos. Israel is arguably looking for state fracture; as the cost of that fracture is borne not by itself but by the Gulf region. The Gulf region wants durable peace as they have moved away from playing the game of thrones. Their focus is economic development, which is now totally upended. Very different objectives
Viking Posted March 23 Posted March 23 7 minutes ago, Xerxes said: The different views and analysis posted here completely ignores the divergent objectives of U.S. and that of Israel. And more importantly the Gulf shiekhdoms as they are stakeholders as well. U.S. is looking for its “Delcy” and doesn’t want state fracture and chaos. Israel is arguably looking for state fracture; as the cost of that fracture is borne not by itself but by the Gulf region. The Gulf region wants durable peace as they have moved away from playing the game of thrones. Their focus is economic development, which is now totally upended. Very different objectives @Xerxes, great point. The US and Isreal have very different objectives. At the same time, the ‘unthinkable’ is happening to all of the Gulf countries. What a toxic soup. Good to know it will all be resolved by the end of the week (financial markets are rallying). We are lucky to have Trump driving the bus.
backtothebeach Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Viking said: We are lucky to have Trump driving the bus. Edited March 23 by backtothebeach
Viking Posted March 23 Posted March 23 39 minutes ago, cubsfan said: You should write for The Economist - you're perfect! @cubsfan, personal attack? Really? I am happy to debate ideas.
adventurer Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Viking said: @cubsfan, personal attack? Really? I am happy to debate ideas. You don`t visit this thread often, do you? My compliments. Edited March 23 by adventurer
Viking Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) Here is a good graphic of the impact on oil markets of the closure of the Straight of Hormuz. It would be interesting to get the same for LNG and fertilizers. What you see below is the paper shortage. It largely hasn’t shown up yet as physical shortages. The longer the disruption goes on the more we will see it manifest in physical markets. Perhaps that is when financial markets start to care. Edited March 23 by Viking
rogermunibond Posted March 23 Posted March 23 https://www.ft.com/content/dc7ba7ef-9e45-48ee-8ba6-88dfab66b2c1?syn-25a6b1a6=1 FT reporting that Pakistan is leading mediation efforts and backchannel talks.
Gregmal Posted March 23 Posted March 23 6 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: Is this why you hate making money?
Castanza Posted March 23 Posted March 23 5 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Is this why you hate making money?
UK Posted March 23 Posted March 23 35 minutes ago, Viking said: Good to know it will all be resolved by the end of the week (financial markets are rallying). Apparently 04 09:)
Gregmal Posted March 23 Posted March 23 57 minutes ago, dealraker said: I find it interesting that you continually focus on the gotcha thing and that a libtard said this or that. To me Greg Trump dominates the media, he owns the narrative on all media and he is literally sprinting past anyone who is out and about trying to say something about something not working. Trump to me is just masterful at his owning the focus and narrative of all media...and thus all of us and what we discuss. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure that many support Trump simply because he can go on an interview and make that setting into anything he wants. It doesn't have to be logical or truthful, nor do the words he dramatically sets out need to be sustained past a few minutes...before an entirely new presentation or direction is dramatically delivered. Yes, if you like a powerful one-source one-man control government then why in hell would you not love Donald Trump? Those that question him, those that say he's not being wildly successful? Hell, they are dismissed, dismissed successfully time after time. Make that argument and watch how irrelevant you are. No, I don't think it is the "media" questioning or condemning Trump that's the main game, I think it is Trump running around with a sledgehammer while little librarian types run for their lives. Trump owns this era; he owns it more than anyone ever! I can easily see why anyone wanting a one-stop-shopping dominant force literally can't get enough of Trump. He's just winging it day-to-day; the man has more confidence right now than I've ever seen him--- and really more than any man/pres or whatever that I've ever seen. We only discuss what Trump wants us to discuss. All discussion, support or condemnation, is nothing but pouring fuel on Trump's dominance. Yes but these trades are soooo easy to see which is why it's just crazy to me why we get all this whining about granulars. "hes said he talked to so and so"...."no he didnt he s lying"..."oh here's a twitter post"...."blah blah blah the walls are closing in"....its so amusing. Meanwhile, at the beginning, pretty boldly, we were told the objective was to bash their weapons/nukes and be done in 4-5 weeks".....well? They can follow every last Truth Social Tweet but not a calendar LOL???
Parsad Posted March 23 Posted March 23 14 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Is this why you hate making money? You are a twat! Funny twat...but a twat nonetheless! Cheers!
Gregmal Posted March 23 Posted March 23 Come on Blakey-poo, we just wanna do our best socialism impression and share the wealth with you!
Parsad Posted March 23 Posted March 23 4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I swear all you Trumpies have schizophrenia. Give it up Blake! There is no winning this thing until the Trump-Epstein files come out...if they ever come out. Teflon Don is the real Teflon Don...that's why his skin is orange and so greasy! Sunny side up eggs just slide off that skin like "buttah"! Cheers!
Castanza Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I swear all you Trumpies have schizophrenia. Blake, you are on here with access to an endless feed of quality investment analysis and choose do nothing but discuss "The Big One" just around the corner and how Oil, real estate and bonds are the only safe asset classes for the next 20 years. Now you're lecturing everyone on news sources and how they need to "self curate" like yourself to "avoid bias or unactual information". Sounds like you've got it all figured out! Edit: I am of average intelligence and probably on the lower end of the totem pole when it comes to investment/financial analysis on this forum. But my moto has been K.I.S.S and sift through the ideas aggregated here then do some personal DD and make a decision. Politics is fun....but don't let it lead to paralysis on the investment side. Edited March 23 by Castanza
Parsad Posted March 23 Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Come on Blakey-poo, we just wanna do our best socialism impression and share the wealth with you! Greg spent the whole weekend polishing off a bottle of Pappy's while writing these jokes for you Blake! He knew Trump would TACO at some point. Cheers!
Gregmal Posted March 23 Posted March 23 1 minute ago, Parsad said: Greg spent the whole weekend polishing off a bottle of Pappy's while writing these jokes for you Blake! He knew Trump would TACO at some point. Cheers! Everyone did, here's the convo from this weekend with my 28 year old little brother who does the OG Mike Burry thing(med school and stocks on the side, not grifting newsletters!).
UK Posted March 23 Posted March 23 10 minutes ago, Parsad said: why his skin is orange Maybe it is just me and everyone keep saying this, but is it really still so:)?
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