Spekulatius Posted March 21 Posted March 21 3 minutes ago, cubsfan said: I'm sure, cause we all know Iran is winning - and Russia and China, their steadfast allies, are coming to the rescue. The USA and Israel are in deep shit! The WSJ and NYT told me so. The most likely outcome of any war is both side lose.
Hektor Posted March 21 Posted March 21 I find it incredible that a state with complete internet blackout and no free press has more credibility here than the democracy with free press that has beaten the pulp out of them.
Gregmal Posted March 21 Posted March 21 15 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: OK, new yellow Post-It slip to the monitor 'Don't take Greg seriously, when he's posting in the CofB&F Politics topic" ... Hey, wait : 'There is no space for it, if I have to see what's on the monitor! - That place is designated for all the passwords of mine, that really matters!' I mean it’s all a big joke right? If we needed to take folks serious probably half those ones commenting would be automatically disqualified for any number of their “forecasts”. Start with those from what was gonna happen because of Liberation Day lol. How bout how serious the effects of the Ukraine war would be on US markets? Should we keep going? I’m just here to balance out the hysterics
cubsfan Posted March 21 Posted March 21 24 minutes ago, Sweet said: That wasn’t Mueller though, that was all the shady stuff that lead up to the Mueller investigation. Although Mueller explicitly said he wasn’t exonerating Trump, from a practical point of view his report pretty much did. Still, the whole premise of the investigation was a joke. Robert Mueller was a very highly regarded and respected FBI director when he was in the Bureau. And then in one fell swoop - he destroyed his entire legacy. So unfortunate.
cubsfan Posted March 21 Posted March 21 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The most likely outcome of any war is both side lose. Oh yeah, the USA is really getting an ass-kicking...
John Hjorth Posted March 21 Posted March 21 1 minute ago, Gregmal said: I mean it’s all a big joke right? If we needed to take folks serious probably half those ones commenting would be automatically disqualified for any number of their “forecasts”. Start with those from what was gonna happen because of Liberation Day lol. How bout how serious the effects of the Ukraine war would be on US markets? Should we keep going? I’m just here to balance out the hysterics Greg [ @Gregmal ], That doesen't even qualify for a reply. And you know that, too. Let's just move on from here.
Red Lion Posted March 21 Posted March 21 5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The most likely outcome of any war is both side lose. But if the other side is a terrorist regime with aspirations of a nuclear weapon, might be better to “lose” early with your brief spike in oil prices. Also when you’re the largest oil producer in the world, it helps take away a bit of the sting from high oil prices. There are certain notable exceptions to both sides losing. For example, crushing the nazis was a win:win for the whole world, except the Nazis. The Iran regime is just as bad as the Nazis, just not nearly as formidable (unless they build a nuke).
Gregmal Posted March 21 Posted March 21 10 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Greg [ @Gregmal ], That doesen't even qualify for a reply. And you know that, too. Let's just move on from here. Frankly I’m not sure why this even started. There’s way more ridiculous things being posted. My forecast at least has a chance of playing out.
Sweet Posted March 21 Posted March 21 18 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Robert Mueller was a very highly regarded and respected FBI director when he was in the Bureau. And then in one fell swoop - he destroyed his entire legacy. So unfortunate. Destroyed it by not finding evidence against Trump, because he lead an investigation he was asked to do? You initially accused him of something which he was not responsible for. Don’t get where his legacy was destroyed, and don’t really want to hear one-sided hackery to be honest.
UK Posted March 21 Posted March 21 29 minutes ago, Hektor said: I find it incredible that a state with complete internet blackout and no free press has more credibility here than the democracy with free press that has beaten the pulp out of them. +1
cubsfan Posted March 21 Posted March 21 44 minutes ago, Sweet said: Destroyed it by not finding evidence against Trump, because he lead an investigation he was asked to do? You initially accused him of something which he was not responsible for. Don’t get where his legacy was destroyed, and don’t really want to hear one-sided hackery to be honest. Robert Mueller totally disgraced himself. There was never ANY evidence of collusion between Trump and Russia , except for Rachel Maddow telling suckers for 3 years straight that there was. There was NEVER any "obstruction of justice" on the part of Trump as you can't obstruct a crime that didn't exist. It was very evident early on that there was NO evidence - yet, Mueller carried on his baseless investigation for almost 3 years before he exonerated Trump. This investigation was nothing more than another "get Trump" episode, that became the standard for the Democrats attempting to destroy future runs for President. Lavrentiy Beria would have been so proud of Mueller's disgraceful political witch hunt. It served it's purpose of a never ending inquisition to inflict tremendous damage to President Trump's first term. That will always be Robert Mueller's legacy. Any good he ever did has been long forgotten.
Marco Van Basten Posted March 21 Posted March 21 Look, I know that people such as @Xerxes, know the situation orders of magnitude better than I do. However, it seems to me that closing the straits of Hormuz is the trump card that the Iranian government has. The straits can probably be opened in a few weeks, although I don't really know. However, if Israel or the US destroy the oil and gas infrastructure in Iran, which seems to me quite easy to do, then it is game over for the Iranian regime. So hard to see how an ultimatum open the straits or you don't have an oil and gas industry does not work.
cubsfan Posted March 21 Posted March 21 23 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said: Look, I know that people such as @Xerxes, know the situation orders of magnitude better than I do. However, it seems to me that closing the straits of Hormuz is the trump card that the Iranian government has. The straits can probably be opened in a few weeks, although I don't really know. However, if Israel or the US destroy the oil and gas infrastructure in Iran, which seems to me quite easy to do, then it is game over for the Iranian regime. So hard to see how an ultimatum open the straits or you don't have an oil and gas industry does not work. Iran has a huge Trump card - if they can play it. But the USA has been decimating their minelaying capabilities - and by bringing in Apache Helicopter and A-10 Warthogs - they may prevent minelaying boats. Who wants to test them? We'll find out soon enough. Don't forget all those suicide drug boats in Venezuela that have been destroyed like clockwork. The US/Israel battle plan has been flawless.
Parsad Posted March 21 Posted March 21 28 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said: Look, I know that people such as @Xerxes, know the situation orders of magnitude better than I do. However, it seems to me that closing the straits of Hormuz is the trump card that the Iranian government has. The straits can probably be opened in a few weeks, although I don't really know. However, if Israel or the US destroy the oil and gas infrastructure in Iran, which seems to me quite easy to do, then it is game over for the Iranian regime. So hard to see how an ultimatum open the straits or you don't have an oil and gas industry does not work. That would be a self-inflicted wound to the U.S. as well, as gas prices globally would go further through the roof. There is no real victor here except some sort of peaceful resolution to keep oil flowing, the Strait open and open inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities. I think regime change will be difficult without Trump cutting his own throat before mid-terms because they are entrenched and targeted bombs won't do it. That's also why he has to keep some sort of leash on Bibi now too because Bibi wants to go for the jugular...but that can't happen! Cheers!
Castanza Posted March 21 Posted March 21 7 hours ago, dwy000 said: More people have been killed in history because "my imaginary friend is better than your imaginary friend" than any other reason. Now do post enlightenment…
Parsad Posted March 21 Posted March 21 3 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Iran has a huge Trump card - if they can play it. But the USA has been decimating their minelaying capabilities - and by bringing in Apache Helicopter and A-10 Warthogs - they may prevent minelaying boats. Who wants to test them? We'll find out soon enough. Don't forget all those suicide drug boats in Venezuela that have been destroyed like clockwork. The US/Israel battle plan has been flawless. It's been good...but far from flawless. Otherwise, it would have been over after the first "mission accomplished", then after the "first day" after Trump said they won, and almost certainly by now considering how much U.S. "firepower" is doing based on your opinion. Yet, none of those three scenarios have proven a winner yet! Cheers!
Red Lion Posted March 21 Posted March 21 5 minutes ago, Parsad said: I think regime change will be difficult without Trump cutting his own throat before mid-terms because they are entrenched and targeted bombs won't do it. Hasn’t he already cut his own throat? Seems to me like a decisive Iran victory could possibly be the wildcard (trump always managed to find one.) But if we had elections today I think the house and maybe the senate flip.
cubsfan Posted March 22 Posted March 22 14 minutes ago, Parsad said: It's been good...but far from flawless. Otherwise, it would have been over after the first "mission accomplished", then after the "first day" after Trump said they won, and almost certainly by now considering how much U.S. "firepower" is doing based on your opinion. Yet, none of those three scenarios have proven a winner yet! Cheers! You'll need to show me a war plan that has gone better than this. I'll wait.
Parsad Posted March 22 Posted March 22 12 minutes ago, Red Lion said: Hasn’t he already cut his own throat? Seems to me like a decisive Iran victory could possibly be the wildcard (trump always managed to find one.) But if we had elections today I think the house and maybe the senate flip. Yes, it would actually probably flip votes. But he cannot do it without ground troops going in. Some of the old school GOP would flip out and more Americans would be against it. And even if troops went in, they would then be there for years until elections are done, new leadership installed, rebuilding of infrastructure, etc. What he needed was a quick, clean victory with regime change using firepower and pressure...a bold win...fast and easy! There is nothing easy about this. Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 22 Posted March 22 5 minutes ago, cubsfan said: You'll need to show me a war plan that has gone better than this. I'll wait. Ah...Iraq taking over Kuwait! Two days! Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 22 Posted March 22 https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-21-26 Trump threatening to blow up Iran's power plants in next 48 hours. Also sending ICE Agents to airports. This guy likes to take big fucking risks! Major gambler...big risks...big bets...big successes...big blowups! That last one worries me! Cheers!
Spekulatius Posted March 22 Posted March 22 2 hours ago, Hektor said: I find it incredible that a state with complete internet blackout and no free press has more credibility here than the democracy with free press that has beaten the pulp out of them. Who claimed that Iran has any credibility here?
Spekulatius Posted March 22 Posted March 22 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Parsad said: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-21-26 Trump threatening to blow up Iran's power plants in next 48 hours. Also sending ICE Agents to airports. This guy likes to take big fucking risks! Major gambler...big risks...big bets...big successes...big blowups! That last one worries me! Cheers! To take down the electricity is one of the most efficient way to cripple an economy. I also mentioned that Iran’s electricity grid is powered by NG predominantly which is why the Israel’s have destroyed facilities of Irans major gas field which points to the same attack vector. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-strikes-major-iranian-gas-field-tehran-vows-to-hit-gulf-energy-sites-in-kind/ I think Israel is the brain here and the US the hammer. Edited March 22 by Spekulatius
Spekulatius Posted March 22 Posted March 22 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Parsad said: Ah...Iraq taking over Kuwait! Two days! Cheers! And it just took 22 days to get to Baghdad and 22 years later we are still in Iraq. Edited March 22 by Spekulatius
Gregmal Posted March 22 Posted March 22 41 minutes ago, Parsad said: Ah...Iraq taking over Kuwait! Two days! Cheers! Nah I think Trump and his buddy MBS and crew will work something. Trump will navigate a successful exit and someone else will do the heavy lifting on the ground. It seems to be the only plausible face saving exit that still accomplishes what he probably wants to but can’t because as others have noticed, midterms would be ugly if held right now.
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