Gregmal Posted March 12 Posted March 12 12 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Greg [ @Gregmal ], Who and which 'beneficiaries' are you thinking and writing about here? This idea that our “enemies” are benefitting from us “depleting” our weapons reserves. It’s laughable.
73 Reds Posted March 12 Posted March 12 1 minute ago, Gregmal said: This idea that our “enemies” are benefitting from us “depleting” our weapons reserves. It’s laughable. Yeah, did we stop making them?
John Hjorth Posted March 12 Posted March 12 5 minutes ago, Gregmal said: This idea that our “enemies” are benefitting from us “depleting” our weapons reserves. It’s laughable. @Gregmal, I don't understand your reply. Please have me excused, and let's move on.
Gregmal Posted March 12 Posted March 12 4 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: @Gregmal, I don't understand your reply. Please have me excused, and let's move on. Ok. One more try. There have been these head scratching theories, some posted here, I think @whiskybravo linked to a Doomberg one, and then the post from @Viking that you quoted, that suggest the US is running out of weapons after like 2 weeks of this.
Gregmal Posted March 12 Posted March 12 (edited) 19 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Yeah, did we stop making them? No, only countries at war who have the “unlimited weapon” cheat code don’t runout. Those with dominant militaries and unlimited resources run out in a few weeks. I mean fuck, despite constant cries of poverty from Ukraine, even they haven’t run out yet. But us? Must be Trumps fault. I’ll have to get a NYT or The Atlantic article to confirm my suspicions. Edited March 12 by Gregmal
Blake Hampton Posted March 12 Posted March 12 3 hours ago, dealraker said: But anyway, what's your investment plan? Long-term, I see a future that's extremely inflationary. In the shorter term, however, I believe we could face financial events where cash could become a very valuable asset. I think we may see a crisis more severe than anything in living memory: - Upstream oil and gas I'm super bullish on quality oil and gas producers. The world is slowly running out of cheap energy reserves, and there isn't yet a meaningful plan set in place for a large transition to new forms of energy. Demand will continue to grow while supply becomes increasingly more scarce. The long-tern risk I see here is almost entirely political. For that reason, I think it's incredibly important to be cognizant of where your production is located. - Highly leveraged real estate Leveraged real estate is effectively a short on the dollar. I can buy an asset, with a long-term, fixed-rate loan, that has tended to nominally track inflation over time. As the cost of materials and labor goes up, so too will the value of my home. Credit markets scare me here, but I do know that if I can offset a large amount of that loan with liquidity, I should turn out okay. - Treasury bills The cash part of my thinking is a constant push and pull; A lot of the times I find myself questioning what the ideal amount is to have. I know that it's a terrible position long-term, but I also know that cash is the only thing that can be depended on in a truly serious crisis. I'll also use it to manage the risk a bit from that home loan. Simply put, I have quite a bit more cash relative to total assets than you do.
Blake Hampton Posted March 12 Posted March 12 That's the investing part. My model for building wealth is earning, then saving, and finally investing. It's a flow. The first two steps of that model are quite important right now since I'm young. My fiance and I both make pretty good money, work quite a bit, and we save a TON.
Blake Hampton Posted March 12 Posted March 12 (edited) I would like to know how often people in this forum put half of their total assets in one position. That's conviction. I've come to the conclusion that investors who are serious about outperforming normally have about five positions max. That's a WAY different game than buying stocks off a whim. And putting 50% in a position is almost nothing when you have say only $10,000. The time needed to make up such a measly sum is almost nothing. I guess the value attached to a certain amount of money is relative to how rich you already are. Of course $100,000 is nothing when your net worth is already $100 million. But it does seem like there's a certain point where sums start getting pretty serious. Maybe it has to do with how much it would mean to the average person. When you start getting to those numbers, deciding to put 50% of TA in one position is stuff that requires big nuts. Edited March 12 by Blake Hampton
Gregmal Posted March 12 Posted March 12 3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: And putting 50% in a position is almost nothing when you have say only $10,000. The time needed to make up such a measly sum is almost nothing. Well, cough, this is why you are supposed to take lots of risk when you’re young and especially if you don’t have much.
Jaygo Posted March 12 Posted March 12 13 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I would like to know how often people in this forum put half of their total assets in one position. That's conviction. I've come to the conclusion that investors who are serious about outperforming normally have about five positions max. That's a WAY different game than buying stocks off a whim. And putting 50% in a position is almost nothing when you have say only $10,000. The time needed to make up such a measly sum is almost nothing. I guess the value attached to a certain amount of money is relative to how rich you already are. Of course $100,000 is nothing when your net worth is already $100 million. But it does seem like there's a certain point where sums start getting pretty serious. Maybe it has to do with how much it would mean to the average person. When you start getting to those numbers, deciding to put 50% of TA in one position is stuff that requires big nuts. I have 50 plus positions but concentrate on the top 5-10. I like to nibble and then bite and if the value increases I tend to go big. I started small in every single holding and as I become comfortable I will go up to 30 % if i think its a quick turnaround then settle that back down to 10-15% Take Aritzia for instance - I bought just after the IPO 200 shares for around 20 bucks, got up to 1200 shares at an average in the high 40's then watched it get crushed right back down to 20 bucks and I had a large loss. I then bought 4000 shares and rode it back up to the high 60's sold a bunch and have slowly been selling down into my current 1157 shares. If i didn't start small I wouldn't have bothered doing the work, then i got excited and bought, then the market left it for dead so I took it to about 12% of my then portfolio value. The result is about 200k in gains and I still hold a fairly decent position. To me I like to trade a lot and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but I do really want my holdings to go down before it they go up.
John Hjorth Posted March 12 Posted March 12 39 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I would like to know how often people in this forum put half of their total assets in one position. That's conviction. I've come to the conclusion that investors who are serious about outperforming normally have about five positions max. That's a WAY different game than buying stocks off a whim. Blake [ @Blake Hampton ], Why can't you let this socalled learning approach of yours go? Why do you focus on questions perhaps not relevant to your own capital? You simply have to try it out for yourself what works for you. Be prepared for scars, bruces, dents in your self esteem, worst case also your libido.
Parsad Posted March 12 Posted March 12 2 hours ago, dealraker said: I'm with John Bolton as to his belief that Trump will attempt to walk away from the war in Iran. Trump can't stick with anything long - especially anything that's a grind to his pretenses of genius type quick fixes and/or deals. If this is the case it will be interesting to see how the Strait reality and "total victory" mesh with the world. We allow Trump to get away with anything he wants while of course claiming total success. But as skilled at enabling as we've become in this country - well this one may challenge us. I agree! Other than the southern border, have they been successful on anything they've done so far in the first year of the administration? Economy is not fixed...tariffs are being refunded...interest rates are not lower...consumer pocketbooks are still hurting...war in Ukraine...war in Middle East...blocked Strait of Hormuz...oil at record highs...ICE looks retarded now...so many he took revenge on are winning their cases or getting reprieves...mid-terms don't look good...stock market starting to get hit...China still doing fine...money/investments yet to flow into the U.S....DOGE was a fucking bust...Trump-Epstein files gaining traction and not going away...he will TACO when oil hits $150! Which sucks, because what would have been the point of all of this recklessness and bypassing Congress to start a war which has no end reward?! Nukes get pushed forward 10-15 years and Trump calls it a win! Cheers!
dealraker Posted March 12 Posted March 12 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Parsad said: I agree! Other than the southern border, have they been successful on anything they've done so far in the first year of the administration? Economy is not fixed...tariffs are being refunded...interest rates are not lower...consumer pocketbooks are still hurting...war in Ukraine...war in Middle East...blocked Strait of Hormuz...oil at record highs...ICE looks retarded now...so many he took revenge on are winning their cases or getting reprieves...mid-terms don't look good...stock market starting to get hit...China still doing fine...money/investments yet to flow into the U.S....DOGE was a fucking bust...Trump-Epstein files gaining traction and not going away...he will TACO when oil hits $150! Which sucks, because what would have been the point of all of this recklessness and bypassing Congress to start a war which has no end reward?! Nukes get pushed forward 10-15 years and Trump calls it a win! Cheers! You can easily find multiple quotes long ago from Trump as to his casino endeavors as being "success." And yes the touch (torch would be a better term) and go ranting "its fixed" has left a bunch of failure residue never mentioned --- he repeatedly carried the media somewhere else with better selling drama. But let's see how we pretend past this one. My view is that Trump runs away from issues with incredible skill, the media is his personal chauffeur. But increasingly he will need massive upside drama, the ante-up needs jet fuel...or else the media, maybe even Fox, seeks to gain control of the narrative. Edited March 12 by dealraker
John Hjorth Posted March 13 Posted March 13 43 minutes ago, dealraker said: You can easily find multiple quotes long ago from Trump as to his casino endeavors as being "success." And yes the touch (torch would be a better term) and go ranting "its fixed" has left a bunch of failure residue never mentioned --- he repeatedly carried the media somewhere else with better selling drama. But let's see how we pretend past this one. My view is that Trump runs away from issues with incredible skill, the media is his personal chauffeur. But increasingly he will need massive upside drama, the ante-up needs jet fuel...or else the media, maybe even Fox, seeks to gain control of the narrative. I have never talked about it here on CofB&F before. But let me just mention here, that the concept of 'bankrupcity quarantine' exist here in Denmark, by law, to stop frauds. Here, you incur that, if you've recklessly run a company into the sewer. - It works.
Gregmal Posted March 13 Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Parsad said: oil at record highs You sure about that?
Spekulatius Posted March 13 Posted March 13 8 hours ago, 73 Reds said: Never said you did. And I agree- name calling is childish. Well Trump is the most proliferate name caller of all politicians. Nobody comes even close.
Spekulatius Posted March 13 Posted March 13 6 hours ago, cubsfan said: Russia gets massive amounts of drones from Iran. This is not correct. Iran gave Russian the blueprint for their drones (Shahed) and helped them set up their manufacturing lines. However Russia is now independent of Iran and in fact modified and improved the Shahed drones already. The higher tech parts come from China for both Russian and Iranian drones and are mostly relatively low tech electronics (GPS ) anyways.
Parsad Posted March 13 Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: You sure about that? Well, not record highs...I was being sarcastic. Certainly isn't going down any time soon unless there is a Trump victory or an Iranian capitulation. Cheers!
Castanza Posted March 13 Posted March 13 4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said: Long-term, I see a future that's extremely inflationary. In the shorter term, however, I believe we could face financial events where cash could become a very valuable asset. I think we may see a crisis more severe than anything in living memory: - Upstream oil and gas I'm super bullish on quality oil and gas producers. The world is slowly running out of cheap energy reserves, and there isn't yet a meaningful plan set in place for a large transition to new forms of energy. Demand will continue to grow while supply becomes increasingly more scarce. The long-tern risk I see here is almost entirely political. For that reason, I think it's incredibly important to be cognizant of where your production is located. - Highly leveraged real estate Leveraged real estate is effectively a short on the dollar. I can buy an asset, with a long-term, fixed-rate loan, that has tended to nominally track inflation over time. As the cost of materials and labor goes up, so too will the value of my home. Credit markets scare me here, but I do know that if I can offset a large amount of that loan with liquidity, I should turn out okay. - Treasury bills The cash part of my thinking is a constant push and pull; A lot of the times I find myself questioning what the ideal amount is to have. I know that it's a terrible position long-term, but I also know that cash is the only thing that can be depended on in a truly serious crisis. I'll also use it to manage the risk a bit from that home loan. Simply put, I have quite a bit more cash relative to total assets than you do. Good luck with that. Has it dawned on you that all three of those categories are heavily dependent on politics. I just find it ironic that you pound the table about how bad the government is doing and the coming financial Armageddon that’s going to bring us back to a barter system, yet all of your asset classes can rerate with the stroke of a pen by some political demagogue or tank because some theocratic dictator decides to take out a pipeline halfway across the world.
Xerxes Posted March 13 Posted March 13 (edited) Here is my take after +1 week of this shit show. As an Iranian-born Canadian, me and countless others were grateful on the fall of a tyrant. But we also know and understand better, that is not that simple. - Khameni is now replaced with Khameni (a younger version) - Regime is wounded; but also more dangerous than ever before - Despite the theatrics of an “Islamic” republic, don’t be fooled, this is going to be a military dictatorship going forward - Office of Supreme Leader will be there to give IRGC legitimacy - Mojtaba will never be as powerful as his father. Power dynamic has shifted - Saudi Vision 2030 is gone. It is now Saudi Vision 2040. Ops. - The illusion of safety that UAE try to cultivate and build over decades has now fallen over 10 days Losers - Iranian people. Stuck between having their infrastructure destroyed by IDF and Americans, and a regime that even now is sharpening its sword to go after them once the war is over. - Regime in Tehran favouring the status quo. They died clenching their fist. - Trump. Even John Bolton, the mega Iran hawk, has enough sense to criticize Trump for a half baked plan. - Gulf states. As said earlier, that entire vision for Gulf centred around trade, tourism has gone in smoke. - The Office of Supreme Leader. It will never regain its power over IRGC. - Ukraine; from what I understand the Gulf state fired hundreds of Patriot in the first few days; more than Ukraine was ever able to buy in the entire war. Also there are report of dwindling supplies of all kinds of munitions from late last year, as Pentagon priorities its own build up over Ukraine needs. - China; yet one more KPI how sophisticated Western military prowess and doctrine is and how purge-ridden PLA may not be … yet. - Customers of Qatari LNG. From what I understand those plants once shutdown will take 3-4 week to power back up. With crude, at least that huge surplus built inside the Persian Gulf can Ben tapped once the crisis over. Winners: - Bibi; he did the impossible. Was able to fully pull U.S. into the war. - Israeli State; as it will not have to bear the cost and will have all the upside. The geopolitical cost will be amortized and carried by the Gulf nations and U.S. - Kremlin; sanction relief on crude, Patriots pull into the Middle East, etc. they weren’t planning for this. Seems 2026 is their lucky year. They are drinking vodka straight from the bottle this weekend, as the saying goes. - U.S. defense contractors. Only if they could expand capacity. - The lower and mid echelon of IRGC, with the old guard either dead or moving out, it is their time to feast. - War porn on YouTube and message boards. It is a bull market for self-declared analysts. I mean who would have thought to see 20 million barrel of crude not flowing through Arrakis. - sadly the regime in Iran may also be a winner by not losing and demonstrating how far they are willing to go. Edited March 13 by Xerxes
Mephistopheles Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Disappointing https://www.nbcnewyork.com/video/news/national-international/olympian-kaillie-humphries-trump-order-of-ikkos/6475964/ This men in women's sports thing has got to end
ValueNation Posted March 13 Posted March 13 44 minutes ago, Xerxes said: Here is my take after +1 week of this shit show. As an Iranian-born Canadian, me and countless others were grateful on the fall of a tyrant. But we also know and understand better, that is not that simple. - Khameni is now replaced with Khameni (a younger version) - Regime is wounded; but also more dangerous than ever before - Despite the theatrics of an “Islamic” republic, don’t be fooled, this is going to be a military dictatorship going forward - Office of Supreme Leader will be there to give IRGC legitimacy - Mojtaba will never be as powerful as his father. Power dynamic has shifted - Saudi Vision 2030 is gone. It is now Saudi Vision 2040. Ops. - The illusion of safety that UAE try to cultivate and build over decades has now fallen over 10 days Losers - Iranian people. Stuck between having their infrastructure destroyed by IDF and Americans, and a regime that even now is sharpening its sword to go after them once the war is over. - Regime in Tehran favouring the status quo. They died clenching their fist. - Trump. Even John Bolton, the mega Iran hawk, has enough sense to criticize Trump for a half baked plan. - Gulf states. As said earlier, that entire vision for Gulf centred around trade, tourism has gone in smoke. - The Office of Supreme Leader. It will never regain its power over IRGC. - Ukraine; from what I understand the Gulf state fired hundreds of Patriot in the first few days; more than Ukraine was ever able to buy in the entire war. Also there are report of dwindling supplies of all kinds of munitions from late last year, as Pentagon priorities its own build up over Ukraine needs. - China; yet one more KPI how sophisticated Western military prowess and doctrine is and how purge-ridden PLA may not be … yet. - Customers of Qatari LNG. From what I understand those plants once shutdown will take 3-4 week to power back up. With crude, at least that huge surplus built inside the Persian Gulf can Ben tapped once the crisis over. Winners: - Bibi; he did the impossible. Was able to fully pull U.S. into the war. - Israeli State; as it will not have to bear the cost and will have all the upside. The geopolitical cost will be amortized and carried by the Gulf nations and U.S. - Kremlin; sanction relief on crude, Patriots pull into the Middle East, etc. they weren’t planning for this. Seems 2026 is their lucky year. They are drinking vodka straight from the bottle this weekend, as the saying goes. - U.S. defense contractors. Only if they could expand capacity. - The lower and mid echelon of IRGC, with the old guard either dead or moving out, it is their time to feast. - War porn on YouTube and message boards. It is a bull market for self-declared analysts. I mean who would have thought to see 20 million barrel of crude not flowing through Arrakis. - sadly the regime in Iran may also be a winner by not losing and demonstrating how far they are willing to go. Thanks for this take. It seems to be the most clear-eyed analysis I've seen.
UK Posted March 13 Posted March 13 11 hours ago, Gregmal said: No, only countries at war who have the “unlimited weapon” cheat code don’t runout. LoL, IDKFA
UK Posted March 13 Posted March 13 (edited) 6 hours ago, Xerxes said: Here is my take after +1 week of this shit show. As an Iranian-born Canadian, me and countless others were grateful on the fall of a tyrant. But we also know and understand better, that is not that simple. - Khameni is now replaced with Khameni (a younger version) - Regime is wounded; but also more dangerous than ever before - Despite the theatrics of an “Islamic” republic, don’t be fooled, this is going to be a military dictatorship going forward - Office of Supreme Leader will be there to give IRGC legitimacy - Mojtaba will never be as powerful as his father. Power dynamic has shifted - Saudi Vision 2030 is gone. It is now Saudi Vision 2040. Ops. - The illusion of safety that UAE try to cultivate and build over decades has now fallen over 10 days Losers - Iranian people. Stuck between having their infrastructure destroyed by IDF and Americans, and a regime that even now is sharpening its sword to go after them once the war is over. - Regime in Tehran favouring the status quo. They died clenching their fist. - Trump. Even John Bolton, the mega Iran hawk, has enough sense to criticize Trump for a half baked plan. - Gulf states. As said earlier, that entire vision for Gulf centred around trade, tourism has gone in smoke. - The Office of Supreme Leader. It will never regain its power over IRGC. - Ukraine; from what I understand the Gulf state fired hundreds of Patriot in the first few days; more than Ukraine was ever able to buy in the entire war. Also there are report of dwindling supplies of all kinds of munitions from late last year, as Pentagon priorities its own build up over Ukraine needs. - China; yet one more KPI how sophisticated Western military prowess and doctrine is and how purge-ridden PLA may not be … yet. - Customers of Qatari LNG. From what I understand those plants once shutdown will take 3-4 week to power back up. With crude, at least that huge surplus built inside the Persian Gulf can Ben tapped once the crisis over. Winners: - Bibi; he did the impossible. Was able to fully pull U.S. into the war. - Israeli State; as it will not have to bear the cost and will have all the upside. The geopolitical cost will be amortized and carried by the Gulf nations and U.S. - Kremlin; sanction relief on crude, Patriots pull into the Middle East, etc. they weren’t planning for this. Seems 2026 is their lucky year. They are drinking vodka straight from the bottle this weekend, as the saying goes. - U.S. defense contractors. Only if they could expand capacity. - The lower and mid echelon of IRGC, with the old guard either dead or moving out, it is their time to feast. - War porn on YouTube and message boards. It is a bull market for self-declared analysts. I mean who would have thought to see 20 million barrel of crude not flowing through Arrakis. - sadly the regime in Iran may also be a winner by not losing and demonstrating how far they are willing to go. Thanks! Given your knowledge, would you have advised POTUS doing all this? Edited March 13 by UK
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