Political Posts

[73 Reds]

2 hours ago, Milu said:

Very well said. Particularly your last sentence. 
 

The Trump is a hitler, Elon is a Nazi stuff is ridiculous. I’m continually surprised at how many seemingly intelligent people I know in real life or on the forum who continue to make the comparison.

 

It’s ok to just not like somebody or even hate them, but this constant equating to Nazi’s is a bit dumb. 
 

 

+1.  No purpose or benefit whatsoever in making this comparison. 

[Simba]

9 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Wow EUR-USD moves are pretty large......we were at $1.02 back in early Feb.....touched $1.14 today!

 

 

 

Thing to watch now will be whether capital inflows to EUR/UK ETF's or Trusts are picking up as a sign that dollar recycling into US assets is now a dollar diversification recycle trade.....lots of good reasons now for Chinese & other foreign actors to hold non-US assets...everybody kinda knew the American exceptionalism momentum trade had played out (i think)...and if that isn't enough reason to diversify alone....let's just call it Captain Chaos diversification.

 

I'd also say that the US is running out of policy options and is starting to look hemmed in in terms of the moves it can make.....the Fed is constrained by core elevated inflation and inflationary policies coming out of the WH....the fiscal authorities (WH & Congress) are constrained in that they most certainly can't push the envelope any more on incremental deficit spending above or beyond the nearly ~7% rate currently......simply because the mountain of existing debt with its poor maturity profile is looming large & the debt servicing would really go into death spiral.

 

Feels like we've reached the end game in terms of being able to juice GDP growth with monetary and fiscal largesse....there is little to no incremental stimulation left to juice the economy/markets......if anything we are looking at austerity. 

 

@Pelagic thanks for these nuggets from the Woodford book....shows how belligerent Captain Chaos can be...stubborn old Grandpa for sure....but I think when presented with the abyss he's shown over time that he will step back from his own stupidity if only to make himself the saviour (never mind that he's the arsonist, in Trump's narcissistic mind he can still be the hero of every situation even the ones he self-generates)

 

 

 

 

But stuff like the below is going to hurt Captain Chaos but more importantly congressional Republicans already thinking about 2026 - "Trump Tariff Surcharges Are Now Getting Added to Customer Bills"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/trump-tariff-surcharges-are-now-getting-added-to-customer-bills?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=7zqHEcxJ

 

Finally - I'll say it again - China pause is incoming. The old man wants an easy life, he wants to be loved, he wants to be liked....his ego is fragile...he is not a man of true conviction & metal which would be required to tough out the pain to come from truly going through with this policy position...he's a rich kid who's had it easy his whole life..he enjoys being the centre of attention but its short lived once the consequences show up.....job losses, factory closures.....he'll see some poor SME business owner on Fox one evening when's eating McDonald's in Mar-a-lago and hear about them losing their business/home and he'll get his phone out and send out a 'Truth' announcing a pause to help the poor people getting hurt by this.

 

The other thing I'd say....if you war game things out properly......Trump has a very big incentive to see a Republican President replace him.....which requires good stewardship of the economy........Why?...cause its a non-zero chance that the next President is a Democrat and non-zero chance that that President will be a populist of left, a populist in reaction to Trump recession/inflation......Trump will be 82yrs of age when he leaves office.....he doesn't want Federal investigations or Law fare 2.0 waiting for him.....he doesn't want the glimmer of possibility he could end up in jail in his feebled old age.....I've heard folks say that Trump 2.0 is a rebel without consequences cause he doesn't need to get re-elected....not so....IMO he might be even more politically sensitive this time around than he was the last....cause he can NEVER be President again....becoming President this time saved his bacon....he doesn't have that option this time....his best option for peace and freedom in his old age.....is a JD Vance/GOP Presidency.

 

Trump's self-preservation genes will kick in soon and all this trade deal stuff will get tossed to JD Vance to bury deep on page 20 of the WSJ.

 

 

 

Agree - this is obviously a policy error from the US Administration - the longer this shitshow lasts, the weaker the US gets - eventually the US Admin will cave in

 

Only a matter of time ... but an old quote .. the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 

 

While I expect a reversal, I heed the above old age advice.  

[changegonnacome]

14 minutes ago, Simba said:

but an old quote .. the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 

 

Trump can stay stupid longer than you can stay solvent!

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2025 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

Trump is reported as saying "the bond market is doing good. It had a little moment but I solved that problem very quickly"

 

The arsonist patting himself on the back for calling the fire brigade.

[rogermunibond]

 

[mcliu]

https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/solo-stove-breeo-fire-pits-trump-tariffs-8aedca80?mod=mhp

Tariffs Will Hammer Solo Stove. Its Amish-Made Rival Is Ready.

Solo Stove’s Chinese-made fire pits face steep tariffs while rival Breeo advertises its ‘tariff proof’ products

[Charlie]

Interesting article in Barron´s about tariffs:

 

The U.S. Came Close to Financial Disaster This Week—and Could Come Close Again

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-bond-market-30b2ff4b?mod=past_editions

 

 

Cheers!

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Milu said:

Very well said. Particularly your last sentence. 
 

The Trump is a hitler, Elon is a Nazi stuff is ridiculous. I’m continually surprised at how many seemingly intelligent people I know in real life or on the forum who continue to make the comparison.

 

It’s ok to just not like somebody or even hate them, but this constant equating to Nazi’s is a bit dumb. 
 

 

 

Yup. This is what happens when you lose political power and have no real leaders or agenda.

When you are on the wrong side of every 80/20 issue - all you can do is name call.

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, rogermunibond said:

 

Looks like that Apple lobby worked.

 

This is why the market jumped on Friday.  Being short or out over the weekend when changes will largely be positive is missing out. 

[John Hjorth]

@dwy000,

 

I speculate somebody has approached POTUS in a very persistent way, telling him that he would not be allowed to go golfing this Saturday afternoon, if he diden't do something.

[Sweet]

28 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Looks like that Apple lobby worked.

 

This is why the market jumped on Friday.  Being short or out over the weekend when changes will largely be positive is missing out. 

Which makes the point of the last month what?

 

This could have been the position from day 1 with some thought and escalation could have been the threat.

 

Now the higher tariffs look like a bluff.

[rogermunibond]

US/China trade deficit will widen even further since China’s tariffs on US goods remains.  

[james22]

 

[Pelagic]

As dumb as the tariffs roll out has been, there have been some fantastic memes from it. This video is one of the finest things AI has ever made.

 

 

 

[dwy000]

11 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

US/China trade deficit will widen even further since China’s tariffs on US goods remains.  

Art of the Deal. 

[John Hjorth]

KALs cartoon  in the new weeks The Economist :

 

[james22]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

Nobody at all disagrees with this.  It's the method behind the madness!

 

Your normalcy bias blinds you. It wouldn't happen without the madness.

 

 

 

[Blake Hampton]

Republicans are for free markets and less regulation.

[rogermunibond]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Republicans are for free markets and less regulation.

MAGA has created a large schism on the free markets part.  While MAGA is for less business regulation same as GOP, but more intrusion in civil society unlike GOP. 

[Blake Hampton]

Democrats are so woo-woo that they scared moderates into voting for a lunatic. Good news though—I've heard Gavin Newsom is running in 2028. I'm sure he'll fix it.

[Sweet]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

Good news though—I've heard Gavin Newsom is running in 2028. I'm sure he'll fix it.

Genuinely can’t tell what is sarcasm anymore.

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

Genuinely can’t tell what is sarcasm anymore.

Guess.

[gfp]

good news for Apple ->

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

[Sweet]

48 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Guess.

Sarcasm otherwise I’m just done 

[Blake Hampton]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Sarcasm otherwise I’m just done 

 

Bingo.