Political Posts

[gfp]

4 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Not narrative, actuals. If you are based outside of the US, in the current climate, it makes a great deal of sense to reduce your US holdings. Sell down your US stocks and real estate. Take maturing TBill capital out of the country. Take physical delivery of gold outside of the country. Capital flight ....

 

The usual defense is capital controls ... but when you also want to be 'king of crypto' .... you are also supporting a primary evasion vehicle. Arbitraging the various tariffs is also great for smuggling!

 

The US is just reaping what it has sown, and the losses have just begun.

 

SD

 

 

I'm sure there is plenty of voluntary repatriation going on by choice.  But that isn't what's driving the move in treasury bonds.  That isn't what is going on with Japan and China.  They don't have a choice - for two different reasons.  A US recession is going to cause a drop in long bond yields.  The debate may be over whether or not the US has a recession - I'm fully wondering that myself.  But I'm not really wondering how long bonds are going to act if we do go into a recession.  But CNBC and Blake are, I'll grant you that

[Spooky]

19 minutes ago, gfp said:

But that isn't what's driving the move in treasury bonds.

 

Can you elaborate on what is driving the move in bonds?

[dwy000]

I'm guessing the equity markets are bouncing because nobody wants to go into the weekend short or with no position only to have some deal announced. 

 

Also looks like China signed an LNG agreement with Australia and a cooperation agmt with Spain.  The long term effects of this are getting set in place. 

[cubsfan]

Interesting reading the thread this morning. COBF in total meltdown mode.

 

We're all gonna die.

[Paarslaars]

Why meltdown mode? Some people figure things out by taking their time on their own. Others need sparring partners to help wrap their mind around things, I am one of the latter. Everything you see in this thread, actually helps to calm me down.

Edited April 11, 2025 by Paarslaars

[Luke]

3 hours ago, Pelagic said:

Some excerpts in the X thread below of Gary Cohn's time at the Whitehouse during the first Trump admin. A lot of what we've seen over the last few weeks seems to be a continuation of what Trump wanted during his first term without the pushback from Cohn and others. If Cohn's account is accurate it seems unlikely we see the reversal the markets are looking for. Toned down in scope to focus solely on China - maybe.

 

 

highly interesting and no surprise.

 

Watch this clip folks, the economist and prof at columbia says the same thing:

 

Trump does not understand basic economic theory.

 

https://youtube.com/shorts/vAwBDzGxpi8?si=V9IN1lkDW6mCVteh

 

Edited April 11, 2025 by Luke

[lnofeisone]

12 hours ago, Sweet said:

This is were I get a bit lost with the whole thing.  Musk has never said or done anything that has made me think Nazi.  Being against large scale immigration doesn’t make you a Nazi.  Throwing a goofy straight arm salute doesn’t make you a Nazi.  I mean the guy has Aspergers, he has all sorts of small but observable physical ticks, like the way he blinks, walks, speaks and holds his head.  He does all sorts of weird and cringey shit because he is (not joking either) a bit of a social retard.

 

Do I like him - not particularly.  Ever since he called the cave diver trying to save kids a ‘pedo guy’ nor do I like his constant (and continued) bs around Tesla capabilities - a long list of outlandish promises never delivered.  
 

But Nazi?  Come on, it’s not even remotely close to that.  Can we please reserve it for people who actually are Nazis?

I have this take too. I think Elon is a moron on top of being a socially awkward (social retard if you will) that drank his cool aid and got carried away a bit. The nazi-looking solute thing was cringey, but I don't think he meant it that way. He is still a moron and deserves to be taken off every gov't program he is getting funds through (e.g., SpaceX, Neuralink, etc.).

 

Speaking of Elon - he is now backtracking DOGE goals to $150B instead of the $2T he promised us. Most of it comes in contract cuts and is VERY LITTLE by way of fraud. He is delivering barely 10% of what he promised. Incidentally, he cost himself more wealth doing his experiment than he saved the country. 

[Luke]

Hearing with trump gets heated...

 

 

[Red Lion]

5 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Why meltdown mode? Some people figure things out by taking their time on their own. Others need sparring partners to help wrap their mind around things, I am one of the latter. Everything you see in this thread, actually helps to calm me down.

+1

[mattee2264]

Financial markets are so fragile that they will severely constrain Trump's ability to push through his policy agenda even if his advisors and the rest of the US government is unable to do so. 

 

Stock market falling 20%, 30 year bond rising above 5% and Jamie Dimon warning about a recession was enough to get Trump to pause for 90 days. 

 

So markets know all they have to do is throw a tantrum every time Trump tries to implement tariff increases and he'll back down every time. 

 

 

[Simba]

Markets in turmoil - America is winning ! 

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, mattee2264 said:

Financial markets are so fragile that they will severely constrain Trump's ability to push through his policy agenda even if his advisors and the rest of the US government is unable to do so. 

 

Stock market falling 20%, 30 year bond rising above 5% and Jamie Dimon warning about a recession was enough to get Trump to pause for 90 days. 

 

So markets know all they have to do is throw a tantrum every time Trump tries to implement tariff increases and he'll back down every time. 

 

 

 

Things can change fast if a few key countries agree to play ball.

 

Say you get Japan, S Korea, or maybe an Italy lined up - things might change.

[Luke]

5 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Things can change fast if a few key countries agree to play ball.

 

Say you get Japan, S Korea, or maybe an Italy lined up - things might change.

Right, after you have threatened them, called China peasant on television, big mouthing how garbage the EU is and how the world steals american Jobs.

Edited April 11, 2025 by Luke

[cubsfan]

11 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

I suppose, somehow this topic also has become the topic for what's going on in Greenland, right?

 

Today, It's all over the place in the Danish news media, that the base commander at Pitiffuk Pitifull Pituffik Space Base Susan Meyers has been fired, for lack of management capabilities.

 

First I thought perhaps J.D. Vances french fries haden't got enough time in the friture oil, of perhaps Vances wifey wasen't satisfied with the conditions in the ladies room, or something like that, untill I found this piece, ohh well :

 

military.com - Military News [April 10^th 2025] : Space Force Commander in Greenland Sent Out Email Breaking with Vance After His Visit

 

I personally think this raises a lot of questions :

1. How can it in the first place be considered a promotion to be appointed base commander of a frozen hell hole?
2. Perhaps for Susan Meyers men with a beard are out of the question because they tickle a lot?
3. Nothing to do in the spare time there, so why not use that time to develop a foreign policy separately for the spot one is in control of?

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Space Operations Command (SpOC) [April 10^th 2025] : For Release

 

Really, really stupid move on the part of the base commander.

 

She tried to politicize Space Force and paid the price.

 

Remaining non-partisan is a key tenet of the military. This is no longer Llyod Austin's Pentagon.

[Luke]

Hilarious show. Keep it coming trump!

 

 

 

 

 

[LC]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

Speaking of Elon - he is now backtracking DOGE goals to $150B instead of the $2T he promised us. Most of it comes in contract cuts and is VERY LITTLE by way of fraud. He is delivering barely 10% of what he promised. Incidentally, he cost himself more wealth doing his experiment than he saved the country. 

 

What really gets me is - why aren't all the small government conservatives throwing a fit?

I haven't heard a peep.

 

The two kings of capitalism are in power (Trump) and scouring the federal government (Musk) for waste abuse fraud corruption laziness etc.....and find barely anything?

150B of cancelled contracts for a 7 trillion dollar government is laughable! 

 

And remember: this is Elon Musk's project. The smartest guy in the room! Our favorite autistic-savant. And backed up by his personal crack team of 24 year old genuises - if he can't find the waste and fraud, who can?

Or maybe....it doesn't exist?

So for all the crap that globalists get about being beholden to "textbook economics" - well what has the last two months shown us?

1) Protectionist policies don't work but rather implode economies

2) Government is not wasteful/inefficient, and in fact may be just as efficient as private corporations

 

In light of this, are the die-hard conservatives re-evaluating their biblical verse that "government=inefficient"?

Again, I haven't heard a peep.

Edited April 11, 2025 by LC

[dwy000]

44 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Really, really stupid move on the part of the base commander.

 

She tried to politicize Space Force and paid the price.

 

Remaining non-partisan is a key tenet of the military. This is no longer Llyod Austin's Pentagon.

"Remaining non-partisan is a key tenet of the military"

 

Isnt the military led (quite incompetently) by Pete Hegseth? 

[dwy000]

16 minutes ago, LC said:

 

What really gets me is - why aren't all the small government conservatives throwing a fit?

I haven't heard a peep.

 

The two kings of capitalism are in power (Trump) and scouring the federal government (Musk) for waste abuse fraud corruption laziness etc.....and find barely anything?

150B of cancelled contracts for a 7 trillion dollar government is laughable! 

 

And remember: this is Elon Musk's project. The smartest guy in the room! Our favorite autistic-savant. And backed up by his personal crack team of 24 year old genuises - if he can't find the waste and fraud, who can?

Or maybe....it doesn't exist?

So for all the crap that globalists get about being beholden to "textbook economics" - well what has the last two months shown us?

1) Protectionist policies don't work but rather implode economies

2) Government is not wasteful/inefficient, and in fact may be just as efficient as private corporations

 

In light of this, are the die-hard conservatives re-evaluating their biblical verse that "government=inefficient"?

Again, I haven't heard a peep.

This is one where I think there is probably huge amounts of "waste" but not fraud.  And for all the right intentions of the concept of DOGE they went about it in absolutely the wrong way.

 

Like banking, there are TONS of people and expenses that do a great job but are frankly unnecessary except as layers of bureaucracy.  Just like there are programs that are a waste.  But instead of just slashing with people who have no clue of what the department does they should have just said to the leaders - next years budget is 10-15% less.  You tell me what to cut.  

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

"Remaining non-partisan is a key tenet of the military"

 

Isnt the military led (quite incompetently) by Pete Hegseth? 

 

Huh?   The Commander in Chief is Donald Trump

 

And when a Colonel showed her partisanship by opening disagreeing with the chain of command, she got herself fired.  She doesn't get to speak for the administration if she does not agree. 

 

I'm pretty sure you understand Military chain of command.

[dwy000]

Just now, cubsfan said:

 

Huh?   The Commander in Chief is Donald Trump

 

And when a Colonel showed her partisanship by opening disagreeing with the chain of command, she got herself fired.  She doesn't get to speak for the administration if she does not agree. 

 

I'm pretty sure you understand Military chain of command.

So you're saying Donald Trump as Commander in Chief is bipartisan???????

 

The Sec of Defense SHOULD be bipartisan (not to mention competent) but we all know that's not even close to true.  If he's not, it's hard to expect.better from anyone else in the military

[LC]

@dwy000 I don't totally buy that - it seems like just saying, well "there must be waste/inefficiency". Where is the evidence?

 

I mean, we just sent our best man to find it - and he's coming back empty handed.

 

5 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

they should have just said to the leaders - next years budget is 10-15% less.  You tell me what to cut.  

 

To be fair - this is exactly what Trump did with tariffs. That doesn't work either.

[dwy000]

4 minutes ago, LC said:

@dwy000 I don't totally buy that - it seems like just saying, well "there must be waste/inefficiency". Where is the evidence?

 

I mean, we just sent our best man to find it - and he's coming back empty handed.

 

 

To be fair - this is exactly what Trump did with tariffs. That doesn't work either.

Theres no specific evidence of what I'm talking about when I say "waste" because there are differing views as to what's necessary and what is not.  When it comes to IRS or Soc Sec almost all of it is necessary.  When it comes to softer targets like National Parks or USAID, what some people consider mandatory others think is a complete waste of resources.  But at the end of the day, we need to cut spending.  So something has to go and I don't think there's much or any real fraud that moves the needle. 

 

Tariffs and expense cuts are 2 very different topics.  

[Blake Hampton]

The only thing republicans are cutting is taxes

[Blake Hampton]

It's a tough world...

 

[gfp]

9 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

It's a tough world...

 

 

Not to mention, he has since sold out of that Nike to replace the position with call options