Political Posts

[gfp]

13 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

@Spekulatius it's more like 29% when you only count the debt held by the public.  intergovernmental debt doesn't trade.

 

10 yr and 30 yr yields keep moving up.  which is likely Japanese insurance companies/asset managers.

 

1-5 yr yields are coming down as they should if we have a recession and the Fed cuts.

 

 

I am just loving the narrative that market participants that are being forced to sell off the run treasury bonds into illiquid overnight markets are somehow making a choice to make a statement to the US or something like that.

 

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Luke said:

 ... If you look at the services and foreign subsidiaries of US international companies the entire world is at a gigantic trade deficit with the US but even then americans try to take more and behave like the poor guy, it is insane. ...

 

Related to what Luke [ @Luke ] posted upstream earlier today, quoted above, I found this piece on WSJ about and its stats material interesting, for reference, and for judgement about proportions :

 

Wall Street Journal - Economy, Trade [April 10^th 2025] : Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

It's the Rolling Stone, for chrissake.

 

Of course it's a hit piece. The Federal government's waste, fraud and abuse is shocking to the public. It's been revealed by Elon. 

 

Rather than cheer - the left must destroy.  How many times have we seen this movie.

[Paarslaars]

33 minutes ago, LC said:

 

I thought the premise of the trade is believing Trump will pause the tariff war with China? Unless you believe he would pause tariffs, then subsequently place sanctions on Chinese stocks? To me that seems unlikely even for Stumpy.

Bessent has already confirmed that delisting Chinese stocks is on the table... was also the case 4 years ago.

[Milu]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

It's the Rolling Stone, for chrissake.

Haha true, I was trying to give a diplomatic answer but your response would have been easier

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Everyone likes to talk and thats your right but i see strong arguments againts tarriffs and you yourselves are now ignoring these arguments.  Meanwhile we all continue to invest in the US.  Proof is in the pudding, e.g. follow the money not the rhetoric.

 

I am definitely re-thinking my heavy allocation to US stocks.

[Spekulatius]

53 minutes ago, LC said:

 

I thought the premise of the trade is believing Trump will pause the tariff war with China? Unless you believe he would pause tariffs, then subsequently place sanctions on Chinese stocks? To me that seems unlikely even for Stumpy.

He has done it before. It als happened with Russian stocks.

[Sweet]

what a strange quote.  Why not just phone Xi?  Who tell Xi to phone him.

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

He has done it before. It als happened with Russian stocks.

 

Exactly, the Sberbank situation, the situations with Gazprom, Lukoil etc. did not occur because of something decided by Russia. They were caused by certain western sanctions.

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Pretty simple. Rationality, predictability, and good governance.

 

The US voted for the opposite, and power to them. But now it wears the consequences, there is no 'redo', and it is not how good neighbour's act with each other.  Enjoy your island; nobody has to visit it, trade with it, buy its debt, or invest in it. Hence, hardly surprising that the term 'Ugly American' is making a comeback ..  it is well earned.

 

SD

 

 

Not to refute any of what you're saying (in fact I agree), however, the Ugly American (William Lederer) was actually a series of stories about well intentioned US efforts abroad that were ineffective because they didn't address the real needs of the recipients. Many efforts were based on the perspective of our own wants and needs rather than those of the recipients, and the givers often become resentful when things don't work out so well.

 

If only we had leadership which was altruistic and effective, but we don't. We have a malicious, selfish, incompetent toddler who masquerades as the champion of the average American. In actuality, his intent is to solidify the wealth and power of billionaires and suck ups and to establish his dynasty.

 

This guy is missing a golden opportunity to make up for a lifetime of fucking people over. I used to expect that one day he'd get up on a podium and announce that it's all been an act. He'd loudly denounce anyone who ever supported the character he'd been playing and then he'd fire every asshole he'd ever surrounded himself with (thus truly draining the swamp), and begin a program of altruism, optimism and kindness to make the world a better and less dangerous place. But no, his entire life speaks for itself. Malicious incompetence and an unslakable thirst.

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

what a strange quote.  Why not just phone Xi?  Who tell Xi to phone him.

 

Beause orange man ego too big to call himself?  

Edited April 11, 2025 by Paarslaars

[Spekulatius]

55 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

 

I am just loving the narrative that market participants that are being forced to sell off the run treasury bonds into illiquid overnight markets are somehow making a choice to make a statement to the US or something like that.

 

I think ist more likely that institutions want to reduce interest rate and currency risks. Note that the Yen and the Euro are moving higher.

 

I think it’s an indication of financial stress in the system. It would surprise me to see some hedge funds or maybe even bank blowing up somewhere. 

 

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

Don't agree.  A shared people is not a matter of opinion.  It's literally genetic.

We are literally all genetically related, since when does it matter if you have some more similar genes that I should treat you with more favor?

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

You have lots of immigrants in the UK here who actively support and want their native countries to do well.

Yes because those countries are not self-serving, as trump is now with the US.

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

Stop pretending such a concept does not exist.

Stop pretending that some shared ancestor 300 years ago makes any of a difference of how we should treat each other.

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

Because I don't like one american I must dislike them all?

I never said i dislike all americans, i said that the american state is a threat to other countries and that many americans support trumps practice of america first, rest of the world second.

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

Irrelevant anti-American bs.  The Soviets started WW2 on the Nazis side and participated in the invasion of Poland.  After the war they tried to gobble up as much of Europe as they could.  

Stop guilt shaming other nations into some imaginary debt that we have to other nations. Should we accept the tariffs because 75 years ago americans helped freeing europe from nazis? What is that for a level of thinking.

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

America today literally budded off a Europe country.  The current presidents mother is Scottish.  Trump is eligible for British citizenship.  Are you serious with your anime and sushi comparision... really?

Who cares if someone is scottish or japanese, seriously? What does it matter. We are all human and if trump had a mother that was whatever makes no difference in how i conduct my personal relationships.

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

This is true.  Trump has been hostile.  He is damaging relationships with allies.  He is untrustworthy.  He is unreliable.  He seems to think American must win all the time and that winning comes at the expense of others.  He doesn't seem know who his friends are.... all these things yes.

 

And yet, I still love America.  Just not Trump.

You CANT love a country. You can love a person but you cant love a country. If you love a country something is seriously wrong with you.

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

PS - I don't love it anywhere near as much as I love my kids, that was an analogy.

At least you clarified it.

Edited April 11, 2025 by Luke

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Related to what Luke [ @Luke ] posted upstream earlier today, quoted above, I found this piece on WSJ about and its stats material interesting, for reference, and for judgement about proportions :

 

Wall Street Journal - Economy, Trade [April 10^th 2025] : Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services.

Absolutely. Trumps policies are damaging other nations on false premises to take their wealth and enrich the US. The US is not our ally anymore, has hard as it is to accept it.

[Luke]

I personally keep holding all my chinese positions although with less of a comfort than previously. The sanctions against russia came because of a straight out war and not because of some tariffs that trump himself started. I doubt all western nations want to do with china what they did to russia, that would be true madness.

[Sweet]

7 minutes ago, Luke said:

We are literally all genetically related, since when does it matter if you have some more similar genes that I should treat you with more favor?

Yes because those countries are not self-serving, as trump is now with the US.

Stop pretending that some shared ancestor 300 years ago makes any of a difference of how we should treat each other.

I never said i dislike all americans, i said that the american state is a threat to other countries and that many americans support trumps practice of america first, rest of the world second.

Stop guilt shaming other nations into some imaginary debt that we have to other nations. Should we accept the tariffs because 75 years ago americans helped freeing europe from nazis? What is that for a level of thinking.

Who cares if someone is scottish or japanese, seriously? What does it matter. We are all human and if trump had a mother that was whatever makes no difference in how i conduct my personal relationships.

You CANT love a country. You can love a person but you cant love a country. If you love a country something is seriously wrong with you.

At least you clarified it.

Luke, please don’t tell me what I can and cannot do, or what opinions I can or cannot hold.

[Ghost]

Bond rates going up and up... Mr. Trump is losing the trade war, he just doesn't know it yet....Time to go long stocks?

[gfp]

7 minutes ago, Ghost said:

Bond rates going up and up... Mr. Trump is losing the trade war, he just doesn't know it yet....Time to go long stocks?

 

NO WAY!!!  Time to go long bonds you goof ball

[Sweet]

45 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Becomes orange man ego too big to call himself?  

No idea if the quote is real, probably is.

 

You have to wonder, don’t the Trump admin know Xi isn’t under the same pressure as they are?  There is no opposition, no critical press and no vote in less than 2 years.  The CCP do what they want.

 

The whole thing is a bit of a mess.  He could have picked up the phone to many of these countries beforehand and said I want a new deal.  I suspect that in the majority of cases if he asked nicely he would have got people around the table.  Instead he immediately went to threats.

[mattee2264]

Yeah if 5% is the long bond rate that makes Trump and his team queusy and is likely to make stuff break seems a good idea to buy when it reaches that level and wait for the inevitable hard policy reversal and Fed (or rather Donald Trump) rate cuts. 

 

Edited April 11, 2025 by mattee2264

[John Hjorth]

This whole tariff thingy begins to look like an analogy to Carl Icahn settling the Tecaco/Getty Oil lawsuit :

 

What can I get?

What are you going to buy?

 

YouTube - Channel livermorereport - Carl Icahn [on a loose leach] - at Caroline's Comedy Club in Manhattan [December 14^th 2007] : Carl Icahn settles the Texaco/Getty Oil lawsuit

 

 

[Red Lion]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

It is, but if he doesn’t pause tariffs he could choose to cut off ADRs. I don’t have to worry either way with DHL or UPS. 

 

That's exactly what I was thinking. I'm wrong close to half of the time even in the best of times, and these are uncertain times. Seems like Chinese ADRs have a lot of risk especially for US based investors. 

[Blake Hampton]

If I were in China, I'd be buying the hell out of undervalued H shares.

 

But I'm not in China.

[Pelagic]

Some excerpts in the X thread below of Gary Cohn's time at the Whitehouse during the first Trump admin. A lot of what we've seen over the last few weeks seems to be a continuation of what Trump wanted during his first term without the pushback from Cohn and others. If Cohn's account is accurate it seems unlikely we see the reversal the markets are looking for. Toned down in scope to focus solely on China - maybe.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

 

 

I am just loving the narrative that market participants that are being forced to sell off the run treasury bonds into illiquid overnight markets are somehow making a choice to make a statement to the US or something like that.

 

 

Not narrative, actuals. If you are based outside of the US, in the current climate, it makes a great deal of sense to reduce your US holdings. Sell down your US stocks and real estate. Take maturing TBill capital out of the country. Take physical delivery of gold outside of the country. Capital flight ....

 

The usual defense is capital controls ... but when you also want to be 'king of crypto' .... you are also supporting a primary evasion vehicle. Arbitraging the various tariffs is also great for smuggling!

 

The US is just reaping what it has sown, and the losses have just begun.

 

SD