Political Posts

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

is Trump lying or is Lutnick lying?

Geez you sound like a politician with the verbiage. Of course Trump is lying about the permanence of tariffs, it’s also called negotiating lol. For real? Why else would there be all these reports of countries lining up for deals?

Lutnick I don’t have an opinion on but just found the choice of words indicative of being a little loose lipped and probably vetted on how this plays out. Otherwise why use that sentence structure?

 

I don’t really try to pick sides or still with anything, I lean towards the outcome that the puzzle pieces tell me is possibly emerging.

[gfp]

9 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

What exactly is there to be positive about?

 

We're investors right?!  The thing to be positive about is finding investment opportunities and making money!  Which is easier today than last year!  There's always something to do.  You don't have to own the S&P 500 or even a single stock from the USA.  There is opportunity everywhere

[Gregmal]

Like it’s crazy how you guys hang on every little word. Nitpick and overanalyze to death. I’m fairly certain half the shit Trump says is solely for the purpose of getting reactions. It’s just noise. 

[dwy000]

Well I think we all assume Trump is lying, largely because that is his default position. 

 

But everyone also assumed he was lying about tariffs in the first place.  And when it turned out he wasn't they all state, well he told you he was going to do that so why are you surprised?

 

A good part of the volatility is because nothing Trump says can be taken at face value, until it is.  Everyone here invests with a premium on management that are frank, truthful and honest.  To have someone running the country who's the exact opposite is gonna do some damage. 

[james22]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I’m fairly certain half the shit Trump says is solely for the purpose of getting reactions. It’s just noise. 

 

It's entertaining AF is what it is.

[John Hjorth]

11 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Am I? What exactly is there to be positive about? I'm long-term bullish on the United States, which I think you almost have to be, but what has happened in the recent past is unbelievable in stupidity and excess. We elected a FELON as our president. A man that has cheated on all his wives, encouraged an insurrection attempt, committed fraud and possibly rape, and overall is just a terrible human being. Our banks have lent stupidly, markets generally are the most overvalued in history, Treasury markets are screwed up, our fiscal deficit and national debt are at record levels, and Congress has checked out.

This stuff has consequences, and markets can change fast. They don't give a flying fuck how you feel, what you think, or how intimidating you are. It's a game that revolves around knowledge and long-term thinking.

 

And our country has been acting fucking stupid.

 

Who are you really?,

 

How much taxes do have to deal with already by moving your capital around?

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, gfp said:

We're investors right?! The thing to be positive about is finding investment opportunities and making money! Which is easier today than last year! There's always something to do. You don't have to own the S&P 500 or even a single stock from the USA. There is opportunity everywhere

 

You're correct. Maybe I just feel more passionate about things as a younger person. I don't have that much capital to really take advantage, and a lot of this has an outsized effect on me because it's my future.

As an investor, I'm excited.

But as an American, I'm outraged.

[dwy000]

6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Like it’s crazy how you guys hang on every little word. Nitpick and overanalyze to death. I’m fairly certain half the shit Trump says is solely for the purpose of getting reactions. It’s just noise. 

We hang on every word because he is the President!!  He's not some schmuck analyst on CNBC.  His words and actions have consequences. And if half the stuff he says is bullshit you're going to get whipsawed around trying to figure out which half. 

Edited April 9, 2025 by dwy000

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

But everyone also assumed he was lying about tariffs in the first place.  And when it turned out he wasn't they all state, well he told you he was going to do that so why are you surprised?

This doesn’t even make sense. Who the heck didn’t think he d do tariffs? He ran on the idea!

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

And if half the stuff he says is bullshit you're going to get whipsawed around trying to figure out which half. 

That’s one’s own prerogative 

[Castanza]

17 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

Am I? What exactly is there to be positive about? I'm long-term bullish on the United States, which I think you almost have to be, but what has happened in the recent past is unbelievable in stupidity and excess. We elected a FELON as our president. A man that has cheated on all his wives, encouraged an insurrection attempt, committed fraud and possibly rape, and overall is just a terrible human being. Our banks have lent stupidly, markets generally are the most overvalued in history, Treasury markets are screwed up, our fiscal deficit and national debt are at record levels, and Congress has checked out.

This stuff has consequences, and markets can change fast. They don't give a flying fuck how you feel, what you think, or how intimidating you are. It's a game that revolves around knowledge and long-term thinking.

 

And our country has been thinking and acting fucking stupid.

 

 

You're 23....You should be DCAing as much money into the market as possible and not giving a flying fuck about the economy unless you're upskilling for a new career field. 

 

VTSAX

BND

BNDX

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

You're 23....You should be DCAing as much money into the market as possible and not giving a flying fuck about the economy unless you're upskilling for a new career field. 

 

VTSAX

BND

BNDX

 

Oh gosh, don't tell a 23 year old to buy bond ETFs!  He's not running an insurance company 

[dwy000]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That’s one’s own prerogative 

As an investor, yes. But if you're Mary Barra at GM trying to make layoff decisions, pricing decisions and capital allocation decisions on a daily basis, it is paralyzing. 

 

Delta is probably leading the pack when it withdrew guidance today because they have no idea what's happening. 

[Castanza]

4 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Oh gosh, don't tell a 23 year old to buy bond ETFs!  He's not running an insurance company 

 Well he might be out of luck then. I'm not sure he's going to find his asteroid hedge in the markets. 

 

If I was 23 right now, I would be working as much overtime as possible and living on ramen noodles. 

[73 Reds]

16 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

We hang on every word because he is the President!!  He's not some schmuck analyst on CNBC.  His words and actions have consequences. And if half the stuff he says is bullshit you're going to get whipsawed around trying to figure out which half. 

What did hanging on every word get anyone during Trump's first go round?  Only nut cases and the media took the bait and where are they now?  They can thank themselves for likely being responsible for Trump's 2nd election.  Meanwhile, while folks complain and endlessly hypothesize about short-term tariffs, business is booming where I live.  In fact its so good that the State of Florida is looking for ways to return money it doesn't need to residents.  At least in some places noise is recognized for what it is.  

Edited April 9, 2025 by 73 Reds
word

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

What did hanging on every word get anyone during Trump's first go round?  Only nut cases and the media took the bait and where are they now?  They can thank themselves for likely being responsible for Trump's 2nd election.  Meanwhile, while folks complain and endlessly hypothesize about short-term tariffs, business is booming where I live.  In fact its so good that the State of Florida is looking for ways to return money it doesn't need to residents.  At least in some places noise is recognized for what it is.  

Okay so when Trump says yesterday he's going to put tariffs on pharma, is he lying?  Is he truthful?  Who do you even negotiate that with?  Because that's affecting not just the pharma companies but also health insurers and most of all, people with prescriptions (which, being in Florida i have to assume is most of your neighbors).  

 

If you're a home builder in Florida trying to make a go/no go decision on a large development knowing that if tariffs are long term (or even medium term) it's going to destroy your returns (not to mention interest rate impacts too) what do you do?

 

It's nice for us to sit back and chill out and watch the craziness but this is having real world and longer term impacts.  And that affects the investment world. 

[Paarslaars]

It's the final table of a poker tournament. Trump is the big stack on the button, everyone in front of him limps in and he doesn't like it. He puts out a big bet preflop to pick up the blinds.

 

All the smaller stacks fold because they don't want to put their tournament life on the line in this spot and they know Trump will shuv on them on the flop.

 

Europe is holding 10Js, they know Trump doesn't have a strong hand so they want to see the flop. They will fold on the continuation bet if they miss but know they beat him if they hit.

 

China is holding AK with second biggest stack at the table. They don't want to let him bully the table to get bigger and got the perfect hand to take a stand. They will go to the river with this hand.

 

Now I don't know what cards will fall on the table but Trump is holding pocket 5's. Let's see who wins...

Edited April 9, 2025 by Paarslaars

[73 Reds]

Just now, dwy000 said:

Okay so when Trump says yesterday he's going to put tariffs on pharma, is he lying?  Is he truthful?  Who do you even negotiate that with?  Because that's affecting not just the pharma companies but also health insurers and most of all, people with prescriptions (which, being in Florida i have to assume is most of your neighbors).  

 

If you're a home builder in Florida trying to make a go/no go decision on a large development knowing that if tariffs are long term (or even medium term) it's going to destroy your returns (not to mention interest rate impacts too) what do you do?

 

It's nice for us to sit back and chill out and watch the craziness but this is having real world and longer term impacts.  And that affects the investment world. 

Did he tell you how long?  How much?  When they would begin?  You're acting as if Trump is a case of first impression.  If you're predisposed to hate him I get it.  I pay no attention to the reaction of financial markets to any of this other than using it as an opportunity.   Otherwise, any immediate reactions are simply pure speculation.

[dwy000]

28 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

This doesn’t even make sense. Who the heck didn’t think he d do tariffs? He ran on the idea!

He also ran on no-tax-on-tips.  But that one turns out to be the lie. 

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Did he tell you how long?  How much?  When they would begin?  You're acting as if Trump is a case of first impression.  If you're predisposed to hate him I get it.  I pay no attention to the reaction of financial markets to any of this other than using it as an opportunity.   Otherwise, any immediate reactions are simply pure speculation.

And that is exactly my point. For you and I sitting back watching a screen it is (potentially) opportunity. And it is even entertaining.  For companies making long term decisions it is paralyzing.  For people impacted it can be devastating. And all of that flows back into the "opportunity".

 

If those homebuilders call up Jorge and tell him they're pausing discussions until this settles it could set JOE back 6 months, a year, or a lot more. 

[dwy000]

9 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

It's the final table of a poker tournament. Trump is the big stack on the button, everyone in front of him limps in and he doesn't like it. He puts out a big bet preflop to pick up the blinds.

 

All the smaller stacks fold because they don't want to put their tournament life on the line in this spot and they know Trump will shuv on them on the flop.

 

Europe is holding 10Js, they know Trump doesn't have a strong hand so they want to see the flop. They will fold on the continuation bet if they miss but know they beat him if they hit.

 

China is holding AK with second biggest stack at the table. They don't want to let him bully the table to get bigger and got the perfect hand to take a stand. They will go to the river with this hand.

 

Now I don't know what cards will fall on the table but Trump is holding pocket 5's. Let's see who wins...

In this scenario, Trump is the newbie who goes all in every hand.  That works really well against the short stacks and so-so hands.  But eventually you're gonna get called. And when you do it's because somebody has a monster.  China just called.  EU called.  Canada and Mexico called. 

[Hektor]

https://www.ktvu.com/news/elon-musks-brother-kimbal-musk-slams-trumps-tariffs

 

I guess he is speaking for himself

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

And that is exactly my point. For you and I sitting back watching a screen it is (potentially) opportunity. And it is even entertaining.  For companies making long term decisions it is paralyzing.  For people impacted it can be devastating. And all of that flows back into the "opportunity".

 

If those homebuilders call up Jorge and tell him they're pausing discussions until this settles it could set JOE back 6 months, a year, or a lot more. 

 

Good thing I'm holding JOE with a 30 year timeframe in mind...You think this will be the last economic headwind the American (or global) economy faces? 

[Blake Hampton]

16 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

It's the final table of a poker tournament. Trump is the big stack on the button, everyone in front of him limps in and he doesn't like it. He puts out a big bet preflop to pick up the blinds.

 

All the smaller stacks fold because they don't want to put their tournament life on the line in this spot and they know Trump will shuv on them on the flop.

 

Europe is holding 10Js, they know Trump doesn't have a strong hand so they want to see the flop. They will fold on the continuation bet if they miss but know they beat him if they hit.

 

China is holding AK with second biggest stack at the table. They don't want to let him bully the table to get bigger and got the perfect hand to take a stand. They will go to the river with this hand.

 

Now I don't know what cards will fall on the table but Trump is holding pocket 5's. Let's see who wins...

 

This is an incredible analogy.

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

those homebuilders call up Jorge and tell him they're pausing discussions until this settles it could set JOE back 6 months, a year, or a lot more. 

That’s not how it works though. DR Horton(along with all the major builders) for instance has contractual takedowns covering a multi year span. They don’t have the option to just say “let’s hold up”. Why would they even risk defaulting on a contract and losing a key regional relationship over a few million bucks anyway?