Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

21 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Turns out things like culture, parent's rights, trans lunacy and failing schools mean a lot to voters.

Try and measure it in dollars - - - it doesn't work.   I don't even need to go with the economy...

 

The democratic collapse and the Trump victory narrative remain completely detached from reality.....as you found out last night in Wisconsin......and as you can see from the Presidential......I agree with your assessment that the Democrats lost their minds with this culture war nonsense......but even with them losing their damn minds down a pointless trans rabbit hole.....Captain Chaos & his version of the Republican party could only pull off a historically narrow popular vote win for the WH and an even more historically narrow majority in the House.

 

This is not what a mandate looks like for radical change........and the GOP are going to get their asses handed to them in Midterms.

 

Closest Presidential Elections by Popular Vote (1900–2024):

1. 1960: John F. Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon — 0.17%
2. 2000: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore — 0.51%
3. 1968: Richard Nixon vs. Hubert Humphrey — 0.70%
4. 2024: Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris — 1.48%
5. 1976: Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford — 2.06%
6. 2004: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry — 2.46%
7. 7. 1916: Woodrow Wilson vs. Charles Hughes — 3.12%

[Spekulatius]

I think the disruption from this are of similar magnitude than COVID-19 . It’s very hard to see how this end. The only thing that’s clear is that many many things are going to be more expensive. RIP to those that went to Vietnam to circumvent China. 46% tariffs. Ouch!

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Actually Dinar was banned because he was approving of genocide.  His 30-day ban is over.  Personally, I'm not sure the site lost one iota with him away.

 

Maybe you should acknowledge that the site has gone to shit at times because there are a handful of posters who like stirring the pot...on both sides...but mostly on one.  A small rag-tag group that has been given considerable free reign in the name of freedom of speech even though collectively they accounted for 80% of the complaints I have received in the last 8 years!

 

I could easily fix this shit, but it would mean banning a handful of people permanently.  Some might say that deprives the board of knowledgeable investors, but the board has been around over 20 years, and every time some knowledgeable poster has left, another one eventually steps in and replaces the lost value.  So no one is irreplaceable on this site! 

 

Rather than slagging off the site, maybe the shit disturbers could show a bit of self-control!   

 

Cheers!

Fair enough although I think it’s a little jaded in some aspects. Clearly there’s more on one side here than another but it’s ok. I remember at the end of 2020 too people were reporting me for simply suggesting to invest in places that shunned stupid COVID policies.

 

It’s all good. I’ll go back to reveling in the distress of these babies. Oh the horrors! Stock market volatility. Wah wah wah Orange bad!

[Dinar]

12 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Actually Dinar was banned because he was approving of genocide.  His 30-day ban is over.  Personally, I'm not sure the site lost one iota with him away.

 

Maybe you should acknowledge that the site has gone to shit at times because there are a handful of posters who like stirring the pot...on both sides...but mostly on one.  A small rag-tag group that has been given considerable free reign in the name of freedom of speech even though collectively they accounted for 80% of the complaints I have received in the last 8 years!

 

I could easily fix this shit, but it would mean banning a handful of people permanently.  Some might say that deprives the board of knowledgeable investors, but the board has been around over 20 years, and every time some knowledgeable poster has left, another one eventually steps in and replaces the lost value.  So no one is irreplaceable on this site! 

 

Rather than slagging off the site, maybe the shit disturbers could show a bit of self-control!   

 

Cheers!

No Parsad, I did not endorse genocide.  I responded to a post that claimed that West cannot win wars anymore.  All I said that if we were willing to wage war the way it has been fought since time immemorial (very brutally), then we would have won the war in Afghanistan.  

As for my contributions being nothing: well, I pitched Tel-Aviv Stock exchange that returned 150%+ in two years, Heidelberg Materials up 50% in three months, Coca Cola Consolidated that returned 50% in less than a year, Airbus that returned 40% in less than a year.  

Don't worry, I won't be posting.  I haven't posted since I was banned, and I would not have posted, but I wanted the record straight. I don't support genocide and never did.  

[kobesystem]

I actually thought Trump made an interesting and subtle point during the press conference. If the tariffs will have such a disastrous effect - as so many say - why is it that so many countries have applied them against the US? Why would the negative economic effects of tariffs not be felt by those countries, but be felt so acutely by the US?

 

I understand that the calculations the Trump administration used to establish the average tariff rate per country may be a bit dubious, but there are countries that certainly tariff the US at high rates. If tariffs are so bad, why aren't those countries removing them? They must be experiencing some sort of benefit from levying tariffs against the US, so why wouldn't the USA also experience those benefits by instituting them against others?

[cubsfan]

Biden crushed the middle class with terrible inflation and unaffordable housing for the young.

The Biden administration did not give a hoot about the working class or middle class.

 

Americans aren't stupid and figured it out. 

 

The cultural insanity was the last straw - like I say, family and traditional cultural values are NOT  about money.

 

Unfortunately, an adminstration that did so much damage to the country gets replaced by the clean up crew.  Make no mistake about it - fixing this country is going to be very, very hard.

I make no predictions about the midterms - Trump is dealing with a huge mess and I can't imagine what approach Kamala would have pursued - likely, nothing.

 

But already, closing the border, reducing crime, and reverting to our traditional values is a beautiful thing.  The rest is going to be a rough ride.

[Eldad]

8 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The democratic collapse and the Trump victory narrative remain completely detached from reality.....as you found out last night in Wisconsin......and as you can see from the Presidential......I agree with your assessment that the Democrats lost their minds with this culture war nonsense......but even with them losing their damn minds down a pointless trans rabbit hole.....Captain Chaos & his version of the Republican party could only pull off a historically narrow popular vote win for the WH and an even more historically narrow majority in the House.

 

This is not what a mandate looks like for radical change........and the GOP are going to get their asses handed to them in Midterms.

 

Closest Presidential Elections by Popular Vote (1900–2024):

1. 1960: John F. Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon — 0.17%
2. 2000: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore — 0.51%
3. 1968: Richard Nixon vs. Hubert Humphrey — 0.70%
4. 2024: Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris — 1.48%
5. 1976: Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford — 2.06%
6. 2004: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry — 2.46%
7. 7. 1916: Woodrow Wilson vs. Charles Hughes — 3.12%

Agree. GOP will get smoked. Nobody jumping ship yet which is totally different from 1st term. 
 

All of this just paves the way for an even worse Democratic Party with less guardrails for their crazy because Trump got rid of them. 
 

I’m a conservative but this sucks. 

[Parsad]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the disruption from this are of similar magnitude than COVID-19 . It’s very hard to see how this end. The only thing that’s clear is that many many things are going to be more expensive. RIP to those that went to Vietnam to circumvent China. 46% tariffs. Ouch!

 

With Covid, we didn't know how it would end...what if it had wiped out 500M people worldwide?  And business did come to a screeching halt!

 

With this, we do know it will end some day, and that things will return to normal.  The problem is what will be the knock-off consequences that we have no way of knowing?

 

Some similarities, some differences...you know the saying...history never repeats, but often rhymes!  Cheers!

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, kobesystem said:

I actually thought Trump made an interesting and subtle point during the press conference. If the tariffs will have such a disastrous effect - as so many say - why is it that so many countries have applied them against the US? Why would the negative economic effects of tariffs not be felt by those countries, but be felt so acutely by the US?

 

I understand that the calculations the Trump administration used to establish the average tariff rate per country may be a bit dubious, but there are countries that certainly tariff the US at high rates. If tariffs are so bad, why aren't those countries removing them? They must be experiencing some sort of benefit from levying tariffs against the US, so why wouldn't the USA also experience those benefits by instituting them against others?

 

Fantastic observation. As Munger would say "invert".

 

If tariffs are so great for their own country, why not ours?

[Parsad]

9 minutes ago, Dinar said:

No Parsad, I did not endorse genocide.  I responded to a post that claimed that West cannot win wars anymore.  All I said that if we were willing to wage war the way it has been fought since time immemorial (very brutally), then we would have won the war in Afghanistan.  

As for my contributions being nothing: well, I pitched Tel-Aviv Stock exchange that returned 150%+ in two years, Heidelberg Materials up 50% in three months, Coca Cola Consolidated that returned 50% in less than a year, Airbus that returned 40% in less than a year.  

Don't worry, I won't be posting.  I haven't posted since I was banned, and I would not have posted, but I wanted the record straight. I don't support genocide and never did.  

 

No, you actually suggested that genocide was reasonable...how you paraphrase that is up to you now.  

 

So I touted Fairfax, up 300%, META up 300%...others continue to offer similar insights.  My point wasn't that you did not make contributions, but that the negatives often outshined the positives.  Net-net...no loss!

 

It's up to you to decide if you want to post or not.  Cheers!

[LC]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Now 90% of the investment forum is just worthless drivel. 

 

Can we please talk about AECON!

[backtothebeach]

Come on guys, let's discuss the issues, possible economic impact and market impact, not which president is/was dumber!

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

• Using his IEEPA authority, President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all countries.
  • This will take effect April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT.
• President Trump will impose an individualized reciprocal higher tariff on the countries with which the United States has the largest trade deficits. All other countries will continue to be subject to the original 10% tariff baseline.
  • This will take effect April 9, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT.
• These tariffs will remain in effect until such a time as President Trump determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.

--
Seems to me there is still some wiggle room, likely frantic negotiations over the next week.

[Parsad]

12 minutes ago, kobesystem said:

I actually thought Trump made an interesting and subtle point during the press conference. If the tariffs will have such a disastrous effect - as so many say - why is it that so many countries have applied them against the US? Why would the negative economic effects of tariffs not be felt by those countries, but be felt so acutely by the US?

 

I understand that the calculations the Trump administration used to establish the average tariff rate per country may be a bit dubious, but there are countries that certainly tariff the US at high rates. If tariffs are so bad, why aren't those countries removing them? They must be experiencing some sort of benefit from levying tariffs against the US, so why wouldn't the USA also experience those benefits by instituting them against others?

 

 

What happens is that trade evaporates between tariffed countries, while trade burgeons between non-tariffed countries.  If citizens feel the pain of tariffs, they realign where they do business and whom they do it with.  As big as the U.S. market is, it will now permanently lose some business with other nations, and those nations will permanently lose some business with the U.S.  It's not that tariffs don't work, but it's like nuking someone instead of moving your soldiers to the front line and negotiating.  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, Eldad said:

All of this just paves the way for an even worse Democratic Party with less guardrails for their crazy because Trump got rid of them. 
 

I’m a conservative but this sucks. 

 

My big fear all along as a centrist conservative - is that Trump through his stupidity would somehow Frankenstein together a populist of the left who can win.......and you would truly have a fiscal crisis & an unwiring of what makes America already great in retort to Captain Chaos.......we are one step closer to that tonight if the Walmart/Target shoppers of America get handed receipts in two or three months time with a stealth federal sales tax tacked on to it... from literally a bunch of billionaires in the WH who haven't been inside a Walmart in decades.

[Dinar]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

 

No, you actually suggested that genocide was reasonable...how you paraphrase that is up to you now.  

 

So I touted Fairfax, up 300%, META up 300%...others continue to offer similar insights.  My point wasn't that you did not make contributions, but that the negatives often outshined the positives.  Net-net...no loss!

 

It's up to you to decide if you want to post or not.  Cheers!

So when the US dropped nukes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that was genocide?  Firebombing of Tokyo?  If so, every war waged since time immemorial involved genocide.  All I said what that's how war has always been fought, and if the West wants to win, it has to fight the way wars always been fought.  

You think I that I add nothing with my posts, that's fine, so why would I be posting?  I post an idea that goes up 150%, I get nothing.  I post historically accurate facts, I get banned.  So why post?  I lived in the USSR, I know the game.  

@Xerxes, @Gregmal, @Cod Liver Oil

 

[Spekulatius]

Has anyone watched Bessent interview with Bloomberg today announcing the tariffs. He was expanding defending them and shaking his head the whole time.

 

I mentioned this before, but it is astounding how incompetent this administration in term of economic polices. Communication is also inconsistent. Bessent and Lutnick know better but everyone seems on a tight leash and they just follow Trump‘s instincts  as they openly stated.

Edited April 3, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

3 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

My big fear all along as a centrist conservative - is that Trump through his stupidity would somehow Frankenstein together a populist of the left who can win.......and you would truly have a fiscal crisis & an unwiring of what makes America already great in retort to Captain Chaos.......we are one step closer to that tonight if the Walmart/Target shoppers of America get handed receipts in two or three months time with a stealth federal sales tax tacked on to it... from literally a bunch of billionaires in the WH who haven't been inside a Walmart in decades.

Yes, that would be a disaster.

[Parsad]

21 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Biden crushed the middle class with terrible inflation and unaffordable housing for the young.

The Biden administration did not give a hoot about the working class or middle class.

 

Americans aren't stupid and figured it out. 

 

The cultural insanity was the last straw - like I say, family and traditional cultural values are NOT  about money.

 

Unfortunately, an adminstration that did so much damage to the country gets replaced by the clean up crew.  Make no mistake about it - fixing this country is going to be very, very hard.

I make no predictions about the midterms - Trump is dealing with a huge mess and I can't imagine what approach Kamala would have pursued - likely, nothing.

 

But already, closing the border, reducing crime, and reverting to our traditional values is a beautiful thing.  The rest is going to be a rough ride.

 

I think all of this has been fact-checked already, yet you insist that it is the truth.

 

Inflation was a remnant of the Pandemic as global supply chains struggled to keep up with demand as it rotated through various goods.  Inflation trended down significantly as Biden's term wound down.

 

Housing is a global issue.  Nothing to do with Biden...we have the same problem here...in Europe...in Australia.  Supply was low, immigration, investment and demand were high.

 

Agree with you on some of the social policies...but that wasn't just Biden.  Some of the social policies under Trump are equally appalling!

 

Kamala probably would have kept the course creating longer term pain.  Trump just decided to kick the world in the nuts in one go! 

 

Let me kick you in the nuts and you tell me if it's better or worse than longer term pain!  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

23 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Please, we can’t even have a conversation about Disney stock because team mentality refuses to even let us acknowledge basic shit like the fact they’ve shit the bed with marketing. @Dinarwhos posted a ton of valuable ideas is done because a bunch of losers that collectively haven’t contributed shit post stuff that he responds to and he gets the ban. And now every thread, even the “non politics tagged” (ones you said carry consequences for posting politics in)…are rife with TDS inspired conspiracies  about how every market fluctuation is some Orange Man gotcha. 
 

I’m fine slinging mud, you know this. But the funny reality is many of my friends here, ones even whom are on totality different sides of the political spectrum than I, notice the exact same deterioration and maybe for the benefit of the site it’s worth looking at. 

 

14 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Actually Dinar was banned because he was approving of genocide.  His 30-day ban is over.  Personally, I'm not sure the site lost one iota with him away.

 

Maybe you should acknowledge that the site has gone to shit at times because there are a handful of posters who like stirring the pot...on both sides...but mostly on one.  A small rag-tag group that has been given considerable free reign in the name of freedom of speech even though collectively they accounted for 80% of the complaints I have received in the last 8 years!

 

I could easily fix this shit, but it would mean banning a handful of people permanently.  Some might say that deprives the board of knowledgeable investors, but the board has been around over 20 years, and every time some knowledgeable poster has left, another one eventually steps in and replaces the lost value.  So no one is irreplaceable on this site! 

 

Rather than slagging off the site, maybe the shit disturbers could show a bit of self-control!   

 

Cheers!

 

This day - 'Liberation Day' - was likely the day where political tensions here on CofB&F peaked, likely for a long time.

 

I suppose the board likely, gradually and slowly will return to it's ordinary modus operandi, where we all mostly get along in a good and plesant way, in stead of the other sh*t.

 

That discussions here from time to time can get a bit 'robust', shoulden't harm anyone. It is an integral part of that passion, that we like to share here on CofB&F.

 

And now I'm at it : I'm a firm believer in, that no political discussion - none!, what so ever - here on CofB&F, have ever moved as much as just one political vote! [It's all futile, waste of time, and all that.].

 

The fact is that a certain message from you can be 'served' in many ways. Pick your personal way consciously and wisely. It's your choice.

[kobesystem]

My gut feeling is that the negative reaction to the tariffs is overblown and due to the following:

• Fear/Displeasure from those outside the US that previously-favorable trade imbalances are about to end (no one likes free lunch being taken away)
• Pro-globalist sentiment galvanizing against Trump and sympathizing with those outside the US, partially for the legitimate reason of not wanting a big shakeup to the economic status quo
• Cynics in and outside the US who enjoy fomenting the idea that these tariffs are creating economic chaos, and sincerely hope that they do

I don't blame those outside the US for hating this move at all. However, I think the two more genuine and reasonable reactions for US citizens are either a) I don't want this short-term pain and don't enjoy this feeling of economic chaos, but I have to admit the net effect for me could be positive or b) I don't mind the short-term pain because I have to admit it looks like we've been ripped off for years and this could have real long-term benefits.

[LC]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

That discussions here from time to time can get a bit 'robust', shoulden't harm anyone. It is an integral part of that passion, that we like to share here on CofB&F.

 

And now I'm at it : I'm a firm believer in, that no political discussion - none!, what so ever - here on CofB&F, have ever moved as much as just one political vote! [It's all futile, waste of time, and all that.].

 

100% agree.

 

People talk about things they are passionate about. Censoring the discussion only serves to make people feel like they cannot express themselves, which I think makes this community weaker. People should feel comfortable sharing their opinions-  especially about cheap stocks which will make us all wealthier!

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, kobesystem said:

My gut feeling is that the negative reaction to the tariffs is overblown and due to the following:

• Fear/Displeasure from those outside the US that previously-favorable trade imbalances are about to end (no one likes free lunch being taken away)
• Pro-globalist sentiment galvanizing against Trump and sympathizing with those outside the US, partially for the legitimate reason of not wanting a big shakeup to the economic status quo
• Cynics in and outside the US who enjoy fomenting the idea that these tariffs are creating economic chaos, and sincerely hope that they do

I don't blame those outside the US for hating this move at all. However, I think the two more genuine and reasonable reactions for US citizens are either a) I don't want this short-term pain and don't enjoy this feeling of economic chaos, but I have to admit the net effect for me could be positive or b) I don't mind the short-term pain because I have to admit it looks like we've been ripped off for years and this could have real long-term benefits.

 

100% , if you are a UAW member, you love this guy. Many, many working class people will as well.

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Has anyone watched Bessent interview with Bloomberg today announcing the tariffs. He was expanding defending them and shaking his head the whole time.

 

I mentioned this before, but it is astounding how incompetent this administration in term of economic polices. Communication is also inconsistent. Bessent and Lutnick know better but everyone seems on a tight leash and they just follow Trump‘s instincts  as they openly stated.

 

I personally share these thoughts of yours, @Spekulatius,

 

I have a feeling - a loose feeling, I should say, of an administration, that simply can't keep up with its political leader, and likely most are scared beyond recognition, in fear of falling short and getting ditched, while their leader is unpredicable.

 

@Viking has called this White House tariff session a communication disaster, and I agree.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I personally share these thoughts of yours, @Spekulatius,

 

I have a feeling - a loose feeling, I should say, of an administration, that simply can't keep up with its political leader, and likely most are scared beyond recognition, in fear of falling short and getting ditched, while their leader is unpredicable.

 

@Viking has called this White House tariff session a communication disaster, and I agree.

 

If you watched the All-In interview with Howard Lutnick 2 weeks ago, you would be very wrong.

[John Hjorth]

Do you have a link to it, Mike [ @cubsfan ], that you want to share?

Edited April 3, 2025 by John Hjorth