Political Posts

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/china-weighs-injecting-142-billion-of-capital-into-top-banks

 

China Weighs $142 Billion Capital Injection Into Top Banks

• Most of funding will come from special sovereign bond sales
• Move is part of economic stimulus package unveiled this week

[UK]

17 minutes ago, Hektor said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/china-weighs-injecting-142-billion-of-capital-into-top-banks

 

China Weighs $142 Billion Capital Injection Into Top Banks

• Most of funding will come from special sovereign bond sales
• Move is part of economic stimulus package unveiled this week

 

Finally some real action from CCP, lets see if will be enough / how sustainable it is.

[Luke]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/david-tepper-is-buying-everything-in-china-etfsfutureseverything-9ef11ac6

 

David Tepper is buying ‘everything’ in China: ‘ETFs…futures…everything’

[Intelligent_Investor]

BABA and TCEHY up bigly

[Spekulatius]

29 minutes ago, Luke said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/david-tepper-is-buying-everything-in-china-etfsfutureseverything-9ef11ac6

 

David Tepper is buying ‘everything’ in China: ‘ETFs…futures…everything’

Banks too?

[UK]

 

[Luke]

 

Best assets in China with Hang Lung Group IMO 

[Luke]

24 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Gotta respect Tepper! 

[Dinar]

What are people's favorite ideas among Chinese stocks and why?  Thank you.

[UK]

40 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What are people's favorite ideas among Chinese stocks and why?  Thank you.

 

LVMH:)? 

 

I like Tencent as a business very much and owning it via Prosus is even better I think. Maybe I would add also PDD, JD, perhaps even BABA.

 

Or maybe the simplest way is to just buy KWEB (internet stocks ETF)! which by definition would exclude banks in China. 

 

Or something like this: https://etfdb.com/etf/CXSE/#holdings

 

Edited September 26, 2024 by UK

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, UK said:

 

Love the interview but still not gonna buy China - even though he is probably correct.

 

Edited September 26, 2024 by Sweet

[Luke]

Tepper is willing to go 25% into China on Pullback, folks! Maybe i get greedy tomorrow and open up my 3x KWEB position again xD 

Edited September 26, 2024 by Luke

[Spekulatius]

The more I think about it the more I believe that the CCP putting money in banks is more of a salvage operation than stimulus.

For stimulus the CCP needs to give money to consumers who hopefully spend it, but that’s not what we are seeing here 

 

This seem tells us that the CCP is afraid of their financial system falls apart, just like when Congress decided on TARP in 2008.

 

Not exactly bullish.

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Not exactly bullish.

With all due respect, please look at the valuations. The stocks are trading at single-digit multiples, below commodity stocks in the US. They are growing WITHIN the highest macro stress since quite some time in the Chinese economy while buying back more stock than many US peers, expanding internationally, running very clean and lean companies with no "meta product marketing influencers," management not paying themselves ridiculous amounts of bonuses and buying their own stock...do you really think China will collapse and not be able to recover? On which stocks are you bullish in that case, and what do you own because you can't protect yourself from that scenario with most stocks? 

 

It just doesn't make sense to be constantly pessimistic while valuations are so depressed. Not even guys like Tepper can convince people to buy Chinese stocks because the hate is so huge. Who is not getting horny here with that amount of hate? Nobody wants to touch it, not retail investors, not your mom and dad (they buy Nvidia or Intel, lol), not most hedge funds, not value investors, not deep-value investors...insane!  

[Luke]

A lot of the debt China owes is to themselves; they have SO much room to privatize their country if necessary to get even through the worst of the worst. On top, they are super self-sufficient with supply chains. This country won't go away any time soon, and it will take a few years until things normalize. Meanwhile, you get paid 10-15% a year to wait. LOL.

[John Hjorth]

On 9/25/2024 at 11:36 PM, Parsad said:

 

Are you saying that Europe, Canada and the U.S. should have simply negotiated with Germany and Japan?

 

I understand you want to have a discussion with no moral context, only based on fact, history and economic objectives, but that isn't reality.  

 

Russia could have pursued a diplomatic solution to accessing the resources in Ukraine...like a partnership agreement or licensing rights.  Wouldn't that have prevented a war or tens of thousands of deaths?

 

So why didn't Putin choose that solution?  Why invade another sovereign nation?

 

The other side of this discussion isn't interested in virtue signaling either, but they aren't naive enough to believe that aggression is simply a precursor to diplomacy.  It should be the other way around!

 

Cheers!

 

Good questions, Sanjeev [ @Parsad ],

 

I have spent a good deal of today to find some answers to some this, - to understand how the man is thinking and try to understand his world view. I recalled hearing a bite of interview some time ago with Samuel Rachlin, a Danish journalist and author of several books about Russia and Putin, here considerered an expert in Russian relations and affairs. Mr. Rachlin was born in Sibiria and lived there in the first nine years of his life, while his parents were deporteret thereto for 14 years, after which the family ended up in Denmark.

 

I found it on a streaming service called 'TV2 Play' provided by the Danish TV channel TV2, the streaming service avaiable to me, all services from TV2 are included in the TV package in my household. Mr. Rachlin mentions specifically a speech held by Vladimir Putin at MSC [Munich Security Conference], in 2007, where he is totally candid towards the participants about his intentions : The objective being a new world order. Actually stunned by hearing this I started to seach for that speech, and found :

 

Wikipedia : 2007 Munich speech of Vladimir Putin.

 

Link to the speech : kremlin.ru : President of Russia : Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy [February 10th 2007, Munich].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Speech also attached here.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Let me just say that I today personally have been hit by a very frustrating feeling of being naive - very naive - earlier - before February 24^th 2022.

Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy - President of Russia 20070210 - 20240926.pdf

Edited September 27, 2024 by John Hjorth

[CGJB]

 

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-newest-nuclear-submarine-sank-setting-back-its-military-modernization-785b4d37

 

China’s Newest Nuclear Submarine Sank, Setting Back Its Military Modernization

Pierside accident came as Beijing attempts to expand its navy

 

China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in the spring, a major setback for one of the country’s priority weapons programs, U.S. officials said. The episode, which Chinese authorities scrambled to cover up and hasn’t previously been disclosed, occurred at a shipyard near Wuhan in late May or early June.

 

[John Hjorth]

Wikipedia : List of military aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War.

 

Total commitment USD 380 B, of which USD 118 B in direct military aid. Add to that [by deducting it] the self-determined 'collateral' of USD 280 B in frozen [seized] Russian central bank assets and you get a total different overall picture. [X is what it is : X].

 

But yeah, freedom isen't always free, and should never be considered a given. Here in tiny Denmark, the military spending is also under a material ramp-up, but with no consequences in the form tax raises in the state budget because of healthy public finances, but I would accept even material tax raises with a shrug, if this was needed, as a citizen to contribute to make this situation come to an end.

[UK]

7 hours ago, Luke said:

Tepper is willing to go 25% into China on Pullback, folks! Maybe i get greedy tomorrow and open up my 3x KWEB position again xD 

 

Could you post a source of this? I was so dissapointed, he does not answered this question of Becky about limits for China in an interview.

 

Edited September 27, 2024 by UK

[UK]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The more I think about it the more I believe that the CCP putting money in banks is more of a salvage operation than stimulus.

For stimulus the CCP needs to give money to consumers who hopefully spend it, but that’s not what we are seeing here 

 

This seem tells us that the CCP is afraid of their financial system falls apart, just like when Congress decided on TARP in 2008.

 

Not exactly bullish.

 

I think you may well end up being right, but I would argue, that even if buying shares in US in Autumn 2008 was somewhat premature, it worked out quite good at the end. Regarding giving away money, if there is a politicall will, as it seems, they will do or try to do whatever is necessary, as things will progress (high chances they will have opportunitues for some more experiments). It seems that CCP really changed their mind on this and so we could be past a real market bottom in China. This is very bullish in my view, because everything is still crazy cheap. The problem though, and Teper refers to limits after Becky's question on geopolitics, that until CCP has not changed its position on Russia etc or at least there is some kind of new and stable (if this possible at all) understanding between US and China, how to coexist peacefully, at least until another elections:), you will end up playing some kind of Russian roulette here (ex some economical risks, but still loaded with geopolitical bullets) and I am not sure how to estimate this or do I want to play this with substantial amount of capital. Surelly 25 percent would be still too much for me at this time. So but in one way it looks much better now, but perhaps still a basket type case for me. But my thinking may evolve on this.

 

Edited September 27, 2024 by UK

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Wikipedia : List of military aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War.

 

Total commitment USD 380 B, of which USD 118 B in direct military aid. Add to that [by deducting it] the self-determined 'collateral' of USD 280 B in frozen [seized] Russian central bank assets and you get a total different overall picture. [X is what it is : X].

 

But yeah, freedom isen't always free, and should never be considered a given. Here in tiny Denmark, the military spending is also under a material ramp-up, but with no consequences in the form tax raises in the state budget because of healthy public finances, but I would accept even material tax raises with a shrug, if this was needed, as a citizen to contribute to make this situation come to an end.

 

+1!  I think most people knew that this would be a stalemate with Russia coming out the moderate winner at the end after a peace settlement is negotiated.  But it also set the floor for everyone else (China, Iran, North Korea) that any aggression is going to cost you financially and in terms of lives lost.  A sad fact, but a fact nonetheless...thus why the West could not just sit by and watch it happen.  As you said...freedom is never free!  Cheers!

[Paarslaars]

Yeah I was considering a basket approach a month ago as well but wanted to wait out the BTC rally to transfer funds from there to China stocks, guess China will go up first now.  Would not feel comfortable with > 10% position here though.

[UK]

2 hours ago, UK said:

 

Could you post a source of this? I was so dissapointed, he does not answered this question of Becky about limits for China in an interview.

 

 

Found it: 

 

[UK]

3 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Yeah I was considering a basket approach a month ago as well but wanted to wait out the BTC rally to transfer funds from there to China stocks, guess China will go up first now.  Would not feel comfortable with > 10% position here though.

 

Basically if you look at KWEBs composition, this is mostly a basket you need, so I did not owned ETFs for ages, but in this case perhaps no need to overthink, it is easy to move in or out and you do not need to deal with Hong Kong jurisdiction and any possible spin offs etc. I think the same about allocation size as of today:)

 

Edited September 27, 2024 by UK