Political Posts

[Hektor]

https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/ray-dalio-china-property-bubble-bridgewater/

[Luke]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3279153/china-eyes-sci-tech-venture-capital-boost-industrial-upgrade-economic-growth?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

[Dinar]

On 9/15/2024 at 9:23 AM, hillfronter83 said:

This is the statistics of retirement fund distribution in 2023 from a local county in China.

It basically says: RMB785 million for 8778 Government retirees at RMB89428/person; RMB369 million for 13220 SOE retirees at RMB27912/person; RMB251 million for 119400 other retirees at RMB2102/person.

 

There is a reason the Chinese system collapses every a few hundred years. 

 

How is it different from the US?  Have you looked how insanely generous pensions for government employees are if they retire at 65?  

[Luke]

https://qz.com/bill-gates-would-make-the-rich-poorer-1851652364

 

Back to communism for the US? 

[hillfronter83]

20 hours ago, Dinar said:

How is it different from the US?  Have you looked how insanely generous pensions for government employees are if they retire at 65?  

 

not familiar with US government pension plan so i asked ChatGPT:

"The average pension for a federal retiree varies depending on several factors, including years of service and salary history. As of recent estimates, the average annual federal pension is typically around $40,000 to $50,000.

 

As of 2023, the average Social Security payment for retired workers is about $1,800 per month, which translates to roughly $21,600 annually."

 

So an average government retiree will get about $70K (pension+SS) vs $20K for an average Joe with no other retirement income sources. That is 3.5 times at the worst, VS 42.5 times in the Chinese data above. 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, hillfronter83 said:

 

not familiar with US government pension plan so i asked ChatGPT:

"The average pension for a federal retiree varies depending on several factors, including years of service and salary history. As of recent estimates, the average annual federal pension is typically around $40,000 to $50,000.

 

As of 2023, the average Social Security payment for retired workers is about $1,800 per month, which translates to roughly $21,600 annually."

 

So an average government retiree will get about $70K (pension+SS) vs $20K for an average Joe with no other retirement income sources. That is 3.5 times at the worst, VS 42.5 times in the Chinese data above. 

Well, a NYC teacher who retires at 65 collects a $175K per year pension, which is not taxed in NYC & NYS.  (I know because friend of the family just retired.) Also free healthcare for her and spouse, vs $10k per year for others.  So call it 200K+ tax adjusted.  Or 10x average social security.   

[zippy1]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Well, a NYC teacher who retires at 65 collects a $175K per year pension, which is not taxed in NYC & NYS.  (I know because friend of the family just retired.) Also free healthcare for her and spouse, vs $10k per year for others.  So call it 200K+ tax adjusted.  Or 10x average social security.   

Vs. about 42 times in China?

Edited September 20, 2024 by zippy1

[RichardGibbons]

7 hours ago, Luke said:

https://qz.com/bill-gates-would-make-the-rich-poorer-1851652364

 

Back to communism for the US? 

 

This is the key flaw in Gates' thinking: "The tax system could be more progressive without damaging significantly the incentive to do fantastic things."

 

He asserts this, but it seems extremely implausible to me.

 

I'd love to actually hear Gates' reasoning about why people's incentives aren't dramatically impacted by the chance to become rich, why moderately successful companies will be equally likely to grow and innovate when they're confiscated from the founders who were responsible for them growing and innovating, and why obliterating the venture capital market won't have an impact on innovation.

[Spekulatius]

I posted this before, just a reminder how China’s works - chance to get your lost wallet back, broken down by country. My take is you do need a high premium to invest in China;  the default risk for government bonds is probably not a good measure.

[james22]

 

[sjh]

6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I posted this before, just a reminder how China’s works - chance to get your lost wallet back, broken down by country. My take is you do need a high premium to invest in China;  the default risk for government bonds is probably not a good measure.

 

Hmm, just looked at the methodology that was used. China has a digital lost and found process. I wouldn’t be surprised if the system just detected that something was wrong with those wallets and that therefore the „owners“ were not contacted. 

[WayWardCloud]

6 hours ago, james22 said:

 

 

Meanwhile their GDP was multiplied by 24. I'm still unsure how such a discrepancy is even possible. But yeah if you take a long term view it's pretty clear foreigner's money has only ever been welcomed in and never out. Must be nice to have people invest in you so much with nothing in return. Maybe we got our money back in cheaper goods? But then de-industrializing wrecks social cohesion at home and makes us dependent on their stuff.

 

Re:wallets experiment I wish they had tested Japan I bet it would have made number one in the list. Safest and most honest country I've ever visited.

[Spekulatius]

This is also an opportunity for Chinese stocks and a risk for Indian ones. The valuation for Indian stocks are sky high and could easily come down a lot. In the meantime here are very cheap Chinese stocks if you can get past the political risk. but then again, Russian stocks were cheap too in early 2022.

 

As far as the money going out part is concerned, Chinese companies have been increasing capital returns. Alibaba is a prime example with dividends and buybacks but there are many others.

 

I think the best companies to own are those that focus Chinese domestic consumption and have a shareholder friendly management and are somewhat aligned with the goals of the CCP. Anta and other sports good manufacturers seem to check some boxes here.

Edited September 22, 2024 by Spekulatius

[formthirteen]

 

Quote

As Beijing set GDP growth targets that were increasingly unrealistic during the past 15 years, the only way to achieve these targets required relying on increasingly non-productive investment, and this meant shifting economic activity from the private sector, which...

 

 

The Chinese economy and stock market is working exactly as intended, as the stock market total returns and GDP figures since 1993 clearly show:

21 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

 

Meanwhile their GDP was multiplied by 24. I'm still unsure how such a discrepancy is even possible. But yeah if you take a long term view it's pretty clear foreigner's money has only ever been welcomed in and never out.

 

[UK]

On 9/14/2024 at 7:08 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

And now we are back to the question : 'Who started this?' Putin won't dare, otherwise he will be swept away from the surface of this planet.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/ukraine-use-of-weapons-in-russia-should-be-loosened-denmark-pm-frederiksen-says?srnd=homepage-europe

[John Hjorth]

4 hours ago, UK said:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/ukraine-use-of-weapons-in-russia-should-be-loosened-denmark-pm-frederiksen-says?srnd=homepage-europe

 

Thanks, @UK,

 

Yes, the whole proposition of red lines and Russia telling others what to do and not to do is absurd in the context of the actual situation exists because of Russian agression. The world simply does not work that way.

 

Exactly the same, when the POTUS, while asked about it, ignores Putin, answering 'I do not think much about 'him'', meaning 'Putin and his doings'.

Edited September 23, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Hektor]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-economy-debt-slowdown-recession-65f51b85

 

China’s Economy Is Lurching. A Recession Could Be Ahead.

 

China’s economic troubles are deepening, with one economist warning clients the country is headed for a recession—and could need a U.S.-style bank bailout.

[John Hjorth]

And that did not last long :

 

Lenta.ru [September 23^th 2024] : Russia responds to Danish PM's call to lift restrictions on strikes deep into the country

 

Subheader: Senator Dzhabarov : NATO countries will be held separately responsible for strikes deep into Russia.

 

What a nice guy he seems to be.

Edited September 23, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Putins idea how this works is you play by my rules but none apply to me.

<<insert nuclear saber rattling sound here>>
 

Obvious play on gullibility.

 

There are some nice mushroom clouds from Russian ammo depots in YT. Imagine what Ukraine could do with a few hundred cruise missiles.

[John Hjorth]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putins idea how this works is you play by my rules but none apply to me.

<<insert nuclear saber rattling sound here>> ...

 

 @Spekulatius,

 

This one of yours made me chukle. At least the last part, understood as the last line.

 

The first line of yours also contains the core of the problem at hand here : The Russian population's glaring lack of democratic attitude, by not stating demands on such matter at and against their Head of State/ruler.

 

Very frustrating to be a spectator to. I suppose this issue will take generations to solve and eventually get right going forward.

[Viking]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 @Spekulatius,

 

This one of yours made me chukle. At least the last part, understood as the last line.

 

The first line of yours also contains the core of the problem at hand here : The Russian population's glaring lack of democratic attitude, by not stating demands on such matter at and against their Head of State/ruler.

 

Very frustrating to be a spectator to. I suppose this issue will take generations to solve and eventually get right going forward.

@John Hjorth your comment gets at political culture. Russia has never had a democratic political culture (they tried for a brief time and not surprisingly it was a catastrophe). Democratic political cultures are not the norm - autocracies are the norm (I am including autocracies masquerading as democracies here). So I am not sure Russia will ever get one.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Viking

[Spekulatius]

I am not sure either. I think the chance that a Democratic Revolution swipes away Putin isn’t large, but surprising things have happened - Ceaucescu was one of those.

 

I think there is a much higher likelihood that a coup sipes away Putin and somebody close to his inner circle eff’s him off, but that’s not something we can predict , much less count on.

 

Andy Grove famously said “Only the paranoid survive” and that’s true even more so for dictators & autocrats than for business.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Warner]

Putin fully controls Russia top to bottom. Someone removing him is a fallacy by Western media/leaders. 

The vast majority of Russians support Putin, and all of them recall the chaos and tragedy of the 1990's. No Russian is willing to go back to their Western experiment.

 

Russia has a long history of sacrificing soldiers. It is likely they will rebuild their army stronger after this conflict ends and the West ends up facing a stronger force than prior to 2022. 

 

Peter the Great's closed associates told him after the battle of Narva, "Don't cry my lord, Russian mothers will have more sons". This may seem callous, but it is a fact that remains true. Russians can and will sacrifice.

 

The West needs to get out of this conflict and move on. Russia will not loose or give up any significant territory they have expropriated. Ukraine will be their buffer start for decades to come.

 

This was the West failure since 2014. 100% foreseeable. Even the current CIA director made this clear in the late 2000's

[mattee2264]

Big China stimulus. Good for sentiment but I think without meaningful fiscal support won't do much for the economy. 

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-central-bank-takes-more-steps-to-boost-flagging-economy-b43e8aef