Warner

WCS is priced in Hardisty. There is no end-user there. Add 10 usd to transport to the Gulf coast and then 2-4 for quality discount. 73+13 is 86 USD to better compare. SCO is trading at a 10 USD premium to WTI. SCO is advantaged for diesel and Jet A1. CNQ, SU, and IMO will do well with the volume they export after their Edmonton refinery feedstock.

If this is true they are enroute for the storage inventory in Cushing and the SPR releases. Except for Japan (who will keep it for their domestic refineries) this is the last source of additional oil.

Canadian SCO has been at around 10-15 usd to WTI and crack spreads are double average. Prices now will elevated for a long time even after the straight opens. Every week is another 90M barrel deficit. SU, IMO and CNQ will report great numbers. CNQ has some debt to retire so SU and IMO will out all additional FFF into buybacks. Only downside is we are going into turnaround season.

Take a look at the Canadian integrated. Crack spreads have nearly doubled, so they are going to have excellent downstream results in addition to upstream. CVE, SU, and IMO

Canadian oil companies will react better to the higher prices if they are sustained longer term. A 20 usd increase might improve their netback by around 12 usd. Most companies are post on their royalties. Around 1/3 at these prices will be royalties. So, CVE at 1M/day this adds around 12M daily to their bottom line. If this goes on for a year it’s wildly beneficial, but for a couple weeks less so. from a shareholder perspective IMO and SU have the potential to perform better as they have no debt that needs paid down. All the additional surplus will go to buybacks. In general their downstream would get penalized in high price environments but I suspect crack spreads are also very wide. check out the well written article here. https://www.zinebriboua.com/p/under-beijings-wing-irans-arsenal

Ukraine has lost this war. They need to end it without delay to save what they have remaining. Vladimir will get pretty well all he wants as he has the upper hand on the ground.

Chevron does not well advertise publically that in 2033 the lease is up in Tengiz and they are likely to loose their most profitable asset. They don't currently have anything to replace it.

Navalny was indeed very brave and certainly dedicated to his cause. He deserves respect and admiration for this. He certainly did not deserve what he received from the Russian state. But, the Russian state controls the domestic narrative and 75% of the Russian people did not know or care about him. This is really missing from the conversation. Navalny was more well know outside of Russia than inside because he had foreign support and funding. He had some support in the middle class, as these few in Russia in a way turned on Putin's gov't slightly in the past 10 years. Everyone here blames all on Putin and what is left out is that he has a large apparatus in gov't that supports him and 99% of these agree with his policies. Russia does not want and will not accept to go back to the chaos of the 1990's. They are not going to throw their unabashed support around an unknown (and state media will ensure he is never known). They will stay with Putin until he decides who is the next leader in Russia as he represents stability and don't forget in his very very long time in power the lives of most Russians has improved. I am not a Putin supporter, but we all need to be pragmatic and look at this from the Russian perspective.

It is a complete failure of diplomacy. It was totally unnecessary. All of this was for nothing significant. Neither side will reach their goals, but many have and will die.

In 2007, Putin, in Munich, made it clear NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia was not acceptable to Russia. Bush invited Georgia and Ukraine to NATO the following year, and Russia took the threat, invaded Georgia, and stopped it. Again post 2014, NATO expansion was proposed for Ukraine, in 2022 after the failed implementation of the Minsk accords, future peace plan proposal ignored in Dec 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine, and stopped NATO expansion. The pattern is starting to become clear....... You may or may not agree, but from the Russian prospect I promise to all they do not want more NATO alignment on their borders, especially, in countries they consider (right or wrong) in their sphere of influence. It is honestly full stop for them with this.. Russians are not indifferent. They just happen to support the Russian gov't position and they are fighting (and dying)for it. International society of countries are N.A. Europe, Japan, Australia, and South Korean. Wealthy, but far from all. Very few others are interested, and the moment sanctions are lifted most trade will resume immediately for most. Russia has what the world needs in resources, the relationship will not be like before, but the moment the war ends trade in the necessities will resume. The USA fought directly the N. Vietnamese for over a decade and 20 years after the war the relationship was restored. In Ukraine, this will happen much faster as it was fought by proxy. The West has more to gain from a good relationship with Russia. What your hear in the Western news is not the full story politically and culturally. This war is a stalemate as is right now and it is better to end the blood shed and move on.. There is nothing more to be gained, only more lost lives for nothing. Ukraine has lost. And, if you don't like Putin then her very carefully what you with for. The replacement will not be more Western aligned in any sort of way. Btw, I am Canadian but I work and live 200 km from the Russian border. Perspective can change it you are open to hear the opposite of the story. The truth is always buried somewhere in the middle Thanks for the respectful conversation! very rare and appreciated.

Putin fully controls Russia top to bottom. Someone removing him is a fallacy by Western media/leaders. The vast majority of Russians support Putin, and all of them recall the chaos and tragedy of the 1990's. No Russian is willing to go back to their Western experiment. Russia has a long history of sacrificing soldiers. It is likely they will rebuild their army stronger after this conflict ends and the West ends up facing a stronger force than prior to 2022. Peter the Great's closed associates told him after the battle of Narva, "Don't cry my lord, Russian mothers will have more sons". This may seem callous, but it is a fact that remains true. Russians can and will sacrifice. The West needs to get out of this conflict and move on. Russia will not loose or give up any significant territory they have expropriated. Ukraine will be their buffer start for decades to come. This was the West failure since 2014. 100% foreseeable. Even the current CIA director made this clear in the late 2000's

Imperial oil in Canada has gone from 850K to 555K outstanding in 6 years... They have no significant growth projects being funded in the near/medium term so this will continue the oil price holds up meaningfully.

My accounting knowledge is limited, but we can assume IFRS 17 being implemented will increase Fairfax's subsidiary statutory surplus' considerably. So, can this potentially allow Fairfax to write additional premiums in this hard market, or potentially return capital to the holding company further increasing shareholder returns?

Turbine engine are easy to maintain. They are simple and easy to use. But, they need clean fuel, clean air, and a lot of fuel at sea level. They can run 500-1000 hours without significant maintenance, but at that point they need some general maintenance. ie. filter checks/replacement, nozzle replacements and so on The attached pic you will see 3000 HP that weighs 785 KGS. This is something a diesel will never come close to matching.

CVX has the Tengiz FGP coming online in 2024/2025, so they are expecting a large uptick in cash flow, and along with high NG prices they will do well. I believe you will see Canadian companies are buying back at a great rates. Ie. IMO bought back 21% of their stock in the past 18 months. That is far and away better then CVX will every do, and there is more to come this year!