Political Posts

[dealraker]

I have three tiny China investments and all are what I have decided are excellent business.  They are incredibly (seemingly) "cheap"  and all sell for far-far less than in the past.  Two are constantly under government supervisions and regulation change which at times repeatedly wipes out the ongoing thus past business model.

 

That said I do tend to laugh at myself, almost hysterically, in thinking that I as an American citizen actually "own" a part of something in China.  That concept is in my view a stretch even for Chinese citizens much less American.

 

One of the things we may consider is the ability we tend to share, that's the tendency or potential to speak and write publicly repeatedly thus ingraining illogical concepts.

[Pelagic]

A very in depth article by The WSJ on Ukraine's sea drone operations. Adding a mine laying capability to their USV's adds an interesting wrinkle should Ukraine decide to execute something like the Union's Anaconda plan during the Civil War by blockading the Kerch Straight and Black Sea ports. 

 

https://archive.ph/uGP59

[Luke]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

I have three tiny China investments and all are what I have decided are excellent business.  They are incredibly (seemingly) "cheap"  and all sell for far-far less than in the past.  Two are constantly under government supervisions and regulation change which at times repeatedly wipes out the ongoing thus past business model.

 

That said I do tend to laugh at myself, almost hysterically, in thinking that I as an American citizen actually "own" a part of something in China.  That concept is in my view a stretch even for Chinese citizens much less American.

 

One of the things we may consider is the ability we tend to share, that's the tendency or potential to speak and write publicly repeatedly thus ingraining illogical concepts.

Curious what these investments are!

[Gamecock-YT]

4 hours ago, Luca said:

Once the way of life and quality of life in China is so vastly superior to the internally struggling Western societies many will want to move closer to China than to G7/US. 

 

That 21% youth unemployment is so vastly superior. Last time I was in Japan the convenience store workers at my local shop were speaking mandarin to one another.  Nevermind the videos of the Chinese nationals crossing the border to the US from Mexico. 

 

So sure, western society might have their problems but China isn't some utopian society, nor anywhere close to achieving it. 

 

It's been noticeable even in the past two-three years being in Asia that countries in Asia that previously would have been kowtowing toward Chinese tourists are now putting up Korean language menus and signs. They are learning there are other fish in the sea.

 

All this to say that other countries that aren't in the immediate orbit of either China or the G7 will continue to play them against one another to get the best deal for themselves. Same as it ever was. 

[crs223]

9 hours ago, formthirteen said:

Machines will take over manufacturing at some point:

They will be operated from places like India and the Phillipines

 

If machines take over, the work will probably be done in the places with the cheapest energy.

[RichardGibbons]

9 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

So sure, western society might have their problems but China isn't some utopian society, nor anywhere close to achieving it.

 

Well, that's just because China's strategy is awful. All evidence we have suggest free-market, liberal, rule-of-law economies are the most successful in raising the standard of living of a nation.

 

China isn't doing that, so the evidence we have--and even the evidence we have from China itself--suggests that their outcomes will be poor.

[formthirteen]

17 hours ago, crs223 said:

If machines take over, the work will probably be done in the places with the cheapest energy.

 

Venezuela and Iran? I hope it will be done in the places with the highest energy prices and labor costs (Europe and US). However, I expect Europe to regulate robots heavily. China will buy most of the European robot manufacturers that it has not already bought. Kuka, Dürr Ecoclean Group, and KraussMaffei have been acquired by the Chinese state Chinese companies in recent years. The US will produce the most innovative robot companies, maybe Tesla, Amazon, or figure.ai. China will continue to be the leading manufacturer of killer robots drones, but will be too scared to use them on anything but the weakest of neighbors. The people of the world will finally be free to argue 24/7 about gender and social injustice. At least until the robots become our masters. McDonald's already employs our robot overlords:

 

[Luke]

 

Interesting thread, translation should be available

I

[Luke]

 

1. China has a better banking system that invests in productive assets

2. China has a better and more educated labor force that enabled the manufacturing boom and business boom

3. Better ability to attract FDI and use the knowledge gained from FDI

4. Better Meritocratic political system where party members keep their jobs with better KPIs of their local economies

5. A lot better bureaucratic system for business owners and getting rid of legal barriers due to control of economy

6. Understaffed indian government. Open positions despite high unemployment-> Caste system/hierarchy of social categories creates problems

7. Intentional underfunding of local governments in India because bureaucrats want to keep control/caste system

8. Democracy problematic if country is underdeveloped, Authoritarian system in growth mode better (giving gifts to voters, having taxes low to get reelected while its harmful to the economy) 

 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

“We will build a business environment that is more solidly based on the market and rule of law and is up to international standards,” Xi pledged.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3268512/chinas-xi-jinping-vows-major-steps-deepen-reform-urges-end-iron-curtains?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-sends-a-plane-of-chinese-migrants-to-china-dbaa211c

 

The Department of Homeland Security said Tuesday that 116 Chinese nationals were deported back to China, a move that came after a surge of Chinese migrants entering at the U.S. southern border in recent years.

 

The Chinese migrants crossing the border are generally people from underprivileged groups, with low incomes, education levels and skills and with little or no chance of securing a U.S. visa. Their departures have often been driven by economic hardship or traumatic encounters with Chinese authorities. 

 

Between January and May, some 10,171 Chinese migrants crossed the Darién Gap, the 60 miles or so of treacherous terrain connecting South and Central America. That compares with 25,565 for the full year in 2023, and a total of 2,381 in the years from 2010 to 2022, according to Panama migration data. Chinese nationals were the fourth-largest group making the Darién crossing from Colombia in 2024, the data showed. Many pay smugglers to help them en route.

[juno323]

On 6/28/2024 at 8:49 PM, Luca said:

“We will build a business environment that is more solidly based on the market and rule of law and is up to international standards,” Xi pledged.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3268512/chinas-xi-jinping-vows-major-steps-deepen-reform-urges-end-iron-curtains?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

Definitely haven't heard this before 

[thowed]

I have just sold my last tranche of a China Mid-Cap Growth fund, so the market's probably ready to rip now!

[Ulti]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/03/business/china-bond-market-bank-crisis-svb-intl-hnk/index.html

[backtothebeach]

Entertaining read:

 

The untold story of the most chaotic Nato summit ever

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8985b970-0015-479f-9585-7a9b234715a4

 

https://archive.is/HdjKG

[ValueArb]

On 7/6/2024 at 7:00 AM, backtothebeach said:

Entertaining read:

 

The untold story of the most chaotic Nato summit ever

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8985b970-0015-479f-9585-7a9b234715a4

 

https://archive.is/HdjKG

one of the few things I applaud Trump for.

[cubsfan]

On 7/6/2024 at 9:00 AM, backtothebeach said:

Entertaining read:

 

The untold story of the most chaotic Nato summit ever

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8985b970-0015-479f-9585-7a9b234715a4

 

https://archive.is/HdjKG

 

Fascinating article, thanks for posting.

 

In the years since the 2018 summit, aggregated defence spending by Nato members, excluding the US, has risen by 55 per cent, to around $430bn. At the time of the summit, just three nations besides the US met the 2 per cent of GDP benchmark. This year, 22 will.

[RichardGibbons]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

In the years since the 2018 summit, aggregated defence spending by Nato members, excluding the US, has risen by 55 per cent, to around $430bn. At the time of the summit, just three nations besides the US met the 2 per cent of GDP benchmark. This year, 22 will.

 

Well, there was an unprovoked attack on a European nation by a country historically known for its expansionary tendencies. Not really surprising that European defence spending increased....

[cubsfan]

Some people just can't handle that it took the courage of Trump to put NATO on the right track again. 

Love him or hate him - he changed NATO in very positive ways for Europe. Unfortunately, he had to make a number of leaders look like the wallflowers they were.

[Gregmal]

I remember when they told us Trump was unfit for office and then proceeded to lie to us for 3+ years about the mental state of his vegetable replacement. Imagine Biden at a NATO meeting? 

[changegonnacome]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Some people just can't handle that it took the courage of Trump to put NATO on the right track again. 

Love him or hate him - he changed NATO in very positive ways for Europe. Unfortunately, he had to make a number of leaders look like the wallflowers they were.

 

Courage....I'm sorry......Trump is stone cold dummy on this issue.....and he displayed effectively first level kindergartener thinking as applied to NATO and the global security architecture from the USA's vantage point.........see NATO is not about making Europe strong and safe...it's about keeping Europe and its collection of nations weak and dependent on the US security umbrella....such that France, Germany, UK when push comes to shove are the USA's lapdogs...NATO is ALSO of course about containing the Soviet and now Russian threat.

 

It is not a good day in the office.......for the USA over the very very long pull..........to have a country as powerful as Germany or France with their imperialistic history and pedigree ramping up its military spending towards 2% of GDP.........the problem with building defensive military capabilities....is that they are indistinguishable from offensive military capabilities.....I know it's unimaginable to folks today in 2024 that somehow France or Germany could be security challenge to the US globally on issues....but the arc of time is long.....and folks should know by now that more things can happen that you can even imagine..........

 

So with this 'new' framework.....I'll ask ......as a US patriot @cubsfan concerned with keeping the USA as powerful as possible for as long as humanly possible (decades, millenia).....is it a good outcome to have Germany/France/UK ramping up their military spend to 2% of GDP....how would the USA or France feel if say Germany for example, under the guise of defense, ramped that spend up to say 6%?......and created an indigenous German military industrial complex that was a peer competitor to Raytheon & General Dynamics.

 

Not its not good outcome for the USA.......the BEST outcome for the USA, if you really think about it, is to maximize its RELATIVE military capability vis a vie every other nation on the planet including its 'allies'.

 

Trump does not get how ultimately magical it is for USA now and over the long pull........to have Germany, France and the UK under-spend  on their military.......it takes every dollar of US spend on its military and maximize its power and influence globally....on everything from trade, to economic coalitions against China, to strong arming folks to go with USA on various espcades in Iraq and Afghanistan  etc. etc.

 

The problem with Trump in regards to NATO as I hope I've explained......is also what I see with his retarded tariff proposals....and his talk of weakening the USD......everywhere with him......I see real first level policy thinking........ .....he consistently, it seems, fails to get the big big big strategic picture....Joe Biden doesn't seem to be able to do even do first level thinking anymore but thats an aside.....when you go down the list...think about how ultimately wonderful it is that the dollar is strong and the reserve currency, how fucking amazing it is that we in the USA get to send the rest of the world pieces of paper and they send us real stuff we can use....why the hell would you put tariffs on a 'racket like that'!?!?......and finally, to bring it back to topic, how amazing it is that former global imperial superpowers like Germany, France and the UK, under the umbrella of NATO, have let their once great military capabilities atrophy...such that the USA is the goddamn 800ilb gorilla in every room its in and its not even close anymore. That's just a slam dunk outcome for any nation so why the hell would you mess with it. 
 

 

Edited July 8, 2024 by changegonnacome

[Ulti]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

also what I see with his retarded tariff

Worse was his doing away with the TPP

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/economy/trade

[cubsfan]

11 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Courage....I'm sorry......Trump is stone cold dummy on this issue.....and he displayed effectively first level kindergartener thinking as applied to NATO and the global security architecture from the USA's vantage point.........see NATO is not about making Europe strong and safe...it's about keeping Europe and its collection of nations weak and dependent on the US security umbrella....such that France, Germany, UK when push comes to shove are the USA's lapdogs...NATO is ALSO of course about containing the Soviet and now Russian threat.

 

It is not a good day in the office.......for the USA over the very very long pull..........to have a country as powerful as Germany or France with their imperialistic history and pedigree ramping up its military spending towards 2% of GDP.........the problem with building defensive military capabilities....is that they are indistinguishable from offensive military capabilities.....I know it's unimaginable to folks today in 2024 that somehow France or Germany could be security challenge to the US globally on issues....but the arc of time is long.....and folks should know by now that more things can happen that you can even imagine..........

 

So with this 'new' framework.....I'll ask ......as a US patriot @cubsfan concerned with keeping the USA as powerful as possible for as long as humanly possible (decades, millenia).....is it a good outcome to have Germany/France/UK ramping up their military spend to 2% of GDP....how would the USA or France feel if say Germany for example, under the guise of defense, ramped that spend up to say 6%?......and created an indigenous German military industrial complex that was a peer competitor to Raytheon & General Dynamics.

 

Not its not good outcome for the USA.......the BEST outcome for the USA, if you really think about it, is to maximize its RELATIVE military capability vis a vie every other nation on the planet including its 'allies'.

 

Trump does not get how ultimately magical it is for USA now and over the long pull........to have Germany, France and the UK under-spend  on their military.......it takes every dollar of US spend on its military and maximize its power and influence globally....on everything from trade, to economic coalitions against China, to strong arming folks to go with USA on various espcades in Iraq and Afghanistan  etc. etc.

 

The problem with Trump in regards to NATO as I hope I've explained......is also what I see with his retarded tariff proposals....and his talk of weakening the USD......everywhere with him......I see real first level policy thinking........ .....he consistently, it seems, fails to get the big big big strategic picture....Joe Biden doesn't seem to be able to do even do first level thinking anymore but thats an aside.....when you go down the list...think about how ultimately wonderful it is that the dollar is strong and the reserve currency, how fucking amazing it is that we in the USA get to send the rest of the world pieces of paper and they send us real stuff we can use....why the hell would you put tariffs on a 'racket like that'!?!?......and finally, to bring it back to topic, how amazing it is that former global imperial superpowers like Germany, France and the UK, under the umbrella of NATO, have let their once great military capabilities atrophy...such that the USA is the goddamn 800ilb gorilla in every room its in and its not even close anymore. That's just a slam dunk outcome for any nation so why the hell would you mess with it. 
 

 

 

That's quite the ultra-cynical view of NATO.

 

My first thought is that the Western European/US alliance has allowed both entities to survive both WWI & WWII - and may help all to survive WW3. Obviously, you see it another way.

 

This alliance is a powerful offset against the Russians - and may be of some value in the case of an aggressive China. I doubt the Europeans want to go it "alone" against a nuclear Russia, although they would probably win anyway - why take the chance and temp the Russians? But adding the USA to the mix certainly seals the chances of a Russian defeat and Western European victory.

 

But you seem to see a much more devious deep-seated motive that the USA has..

 

I think eventually, there will be a showdown with China - hopefully many, many years into the future - and certainly the USA will want Western Europe as our "partner" or ally.  Who knows?

 

Unless you want every country in the world "nuking up" against aggressive neighbors  - I'd suggest serious alliances like NATO serve a very useful purpose for the continuation of peace, trade and economic prosperity.

 

Obviously, you have a much more cynical viewpoint. 

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

That's quite the ultra-cynical view of NATO.

 

I'd posit your view is naive. There's no deep state thinking required - only the simple application of the golden rule of international relations - nations states dont have friends and allies, they have interests.....when interest align....you look like fast friends........it is in the United States interest to be the most powerful nation in the world....I applaud us for it....and they achieved it with perfect execution for decades now.

 

The architecture put in place post WWII was about putting in place a world order where the US was the great power (militarily and economically) in the system.....you wanted global prosperity, trade and economic recovery in Europe (Marshall plan) because this would ultimately be to the benefit and security of the United States....and we got to write the rules...reserve currency, NYC as financial centre,UN in NYC, IMF in D.C....the American century ....but dont confuse economic diplomacy with altruistic kindness....the US never wanted again to be concerned about the military rise of an imperial Germany or France or UK coming out of Europe capabale of projecting power on the world stage......NATO neutered this possibility while also containing the great power (USSR) with the capability to challenge you.

 

Dont get me wrong Europe wanted this too....generations were ravaged by war.....Europe was done with 'wars' after generations were annihilated....it welcomed with open arms the neutering of itself.....

 

Providing a security umbrella in Europe and in Asia to Japan....South Korea......though is both 'kind' but also brutally strategic at the same time......its neutres their ability to project power....again you want to be the king of the jungle in Europe and Asia even......the smart way to run your business in the international system is to put out fires before they can even start........NATO and security umbrellas for Japan/S.Korea......took possible chess pieces off the board....allowing the US to focus on true emerging threats..the USSR first......now China.....and who knows perhaps India one day....depending on its ambitions.

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

This alliance is a powerful offset against the Russians

 

It was a powerful offset for the United States against the peer competitor that was the USSR post-WWII up until its collapse....Russia, today, is militarily a joke in terms of its ability to project true occupation power into Western Europe (obviosly it could blow it up a thousand times over).....don't believe the threat inflation about Putin marching into Ukraine and then on to Poland and then Berlin....all that Biden cold war nonsense...believe what you can see with your own eyes.......Russia's great military is literally stuck in the mud in Western Ukraine. 

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I doubt the Europeans want to go it "alone" against a nuclear Russia, although they would probably win anyway - why take the chance and temp the Russians?

 

The true value of NATO to the Europeans.......is that by outsourcing their security to the United States.....it fulfills a desire that all European who went through WWI and WWII wanted......which is not to repeat the chaos and bloodshed and misery again that comes from security competition on the continent thats been going on for hundred of years but reached a crescendo when industrialized killing machines became available a hundred years ago.

 

The source of that bloodshed and misery?.....effectively the unchecked security competition between the chief modern protagonists in Western Europe...... France and Germany.....that sent millions to the slaughter in the early 20th century.

 

Europe, was like an addict, addicted to killing and war........and NATO, in a real sense, is like an AA meeting for it........NATO allows Germany, France to effectively disavow the need for true military scale....it relegates the inevitable security competition that has bedeviled the continent ......one should see the EU and NATO combined.....as like a junkie doing everything they possibly can not to 'use' again.....the EU is an economic peace project......and NATO is an outsourcing of the very concept of a nation capable of projecting power building a military capability to do so......see all military first get built in the understandable AND justibable spirit of defense....they later get used for expansionary purposes.

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I'd suggest serious alliances like NATO serve a very useful purpose for the continuation of peace, trade and economic prosperity.

 

Couldn't agree more......its all about maximizing ones relative position in the global system from a security and economic point of view.....security architecture via alliance and containment design is ultimately the MOST pure expression of what one might call 'risk management'....cause it concerns the safety and prosperity of one's own people......

[cubsfan]

I have no idea where you are going with this argument, but feel free. I really don't get it. I must be dense.

 

It's not some tremendous act of kindness that the Marshall Plan was offered to Europe - it's because the US (and Canada too), were the only superpowers left standing and not totally destroyed by WWII. In retrospect, the "isolationist" policy of the pre-WWII USA was a mistake. It only encouraged Germany & Japan. 

 

Of course, for Europe & Japan to be rebuilt physically and economically without the excessive penalties of WW1 , the Marshall Plan was offered once the "right" leadership was in place for the defeated nations (and our own allies).

 

So if you are questioning the motives of the USA - fine by me - I don't really care. The avoidance of a WW3 is well worth the price to BOTH the USA and Europe.

 

Did the USA, or for that matter, Western Europe , want an ascendant military power like Germany or Japan militarized again? Of course not. Economically - yes.  You'd think that France & England, after 3 wars with Germany since 1880 - would want a "lid" on Germany once and for all, regardless if required that the USA have a lead or a support role.

 

Certainly, Russia is a threat to Western Europe, especially if you live in the Baltic States, Finland, Poland or Western Ukraine.  The only thing that matters is what Putin THINKS he can do, regardless of the diminished capabilities of his military. Much like the situation with Hilter - whereby a despot with a WEAKER military THINKS he can defeat a far STRONGER combined Russian, English, French and USA military in a 2 front war. All that mattered in the end - is what Hitler THOUGHT he could do it - because 25 million Europeans had to die to actually prove him wrong.