juno323

Probably related to this article on Bloomberg.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/xi-crackdown-on-hedonistic-bankers-fuels-industry-brain-drain

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-28/piano-sales-fall-in-china-amid-stock-rout-real-estate-bust Middle class taking quite a hit.

The challenge is that there’s no real way of pricing the political implications especially if things so south. There’s a range of possible outcomes for investors, and using history as a guide, the downside scenarios are pretty dire. The allure of “cheap valuations” is what attracts many investors to Asia.. but as someone whose lived here and seen the same story play out again and again, I would be more cautious.

Was reading The Investor Manifesto by Bernstein (published in 2009) and came across this “Similarly, brokerage houses and mutual fund companies often tout the stocks of emerging-market nations, such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the so-called BRIC countries) because of their rapid economic growth. But beware: Share dilution, and often outright theft because of lax security laws, vaporizes a lot of this growth by the time it reaches the per-share level. For example, China’s economy has been growing at a blistering 9 percent real rate per year for more than two decades. Yet between 1993 and 2008 investors actually lost 3.3 percent per year in Chinese stocks, even with dividends reinvested. You read that right: Over this 16-year period, even before expenses, the investor in Chinese stocks lost 41.5 percent of value. (The loss of 3.3 percent per year before inflation calculates out to a loss of 5.7 percent per year after inflation.)”

That’s my point. The legal system is the same and depending on the decade you are in, you had very different final outcomes in your wealth ranging from extreme wealth to confiscation or imprisonment. There’s a reason why there’s such a huge industry (and penalties in place to prevent it) helping move wealth out as a “backup”.

I am not sure if you’ve kept up to date but a lot has changed in the last 3 years and the new direction seem a lot like the old policies which didn’t work and led them to the situation 70 years ago.

That’s the real challenge - the lack of check and balances creates a feast or famine type situation. Dependint on time period you were where the CCP was in charge, you either did really well or had your assets confiscated and were sent to the countryside. On a side note, the returns or Chinese equities has been horrific in the last 3 decades too. But at least you got to keep it..

The people are different but the governmental structure and system is similar. There’s been a clear shift in the the last few years that have undone many of the policies that were set in place that enabled China to unleash its potential starting from the 80s. I want China to do well - but the new direction it’s heading is extremely concerning.

Didn’t the CCP put them into poverty in the first place?