Political Posts

[Xerxes]

It is not complicated folks.
 

Alliance based on deep value goes somewhere. Alliance based on opportunism goes exactly that far. 
 

 

PS: let’s hope Bibi and his pals also have some grand vision of Marshall-plan like plan in mind for post-War Gaza.
 

That is not just blowing things up with no economic and development plans for the day after. Ok fair. The rich Gulf Arabs have to pay. They got too. They are the one that have been sustaining the dream. 
 

Let’s hope just like the Americans with Japan and Germany, Israel don’t have “designs” on actual lands and people living there. Just there to shape geopolitics. And nothing more. 

 

Edited April 21, 2024 by Xerxes

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

It is not complicated folks.
 

Alliance based on deep value goes somewhere. Alliance based on opportunism goes exactly that far. 

What values do we exactly share with the senile man Biden and Trump and this government? How can the US call itself a democracy when the same two candidates come up AGAIN after how ridiculous their presidency was and the election process? I mean, it's a South Park episode and I am highly skeptical of the state of leadership in the US. It's a very very limited democracy with the same two parties again and again and the same few client oligarch possible presidents up for choice that come from the same backgrounds, Ivy League, close contact to corporate America, running the same political line again, and again, funded by the same elite...this is what China sees, what Russia sees, what Iran sees but what can not be said publicly or you are a conspiracy theorist, Chinese spy or whatever. Then you have a media sector that receives funding by the same clientele that sponsors the presidents and parties, very strict ideological line that you are not allowed to cross or you will receive a public shitstorm by some randoms...Musk says it regularly but then he will get cut from advertising and blocked...alliances are based on mutual interests and I see a lot of differences in interest. 

Edited April 21, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Yeah, @Spekulatius,

 

Add to that the German decisions to abolish German nuclear energy before the nuclear power plants EOL, by now amplifying the issues, those decisions in this regard in clear retrospect have turned out to be nothing less than dreadful and very costly, leaving German former energy giants such as E.ON and RWE behind almost as zombie companies laying around in rubbles.

 

CoBF topic : The Direction for Future European Energy : Eurelectric : Statement.

Yes, the terrible energy policy from Germany is a major driver and Russia cut off was extra dry firewood on top I agree. 

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, Luca said:

What values do we exactly share with the senile man Biden and Trump and this government? How can the US call itself a democracy when the same two candidates come up AGAIN after how ridiculous their presidency was and the election process? I mean, it's a South Park episode and I am highly skeptical of the state of leadership in the US. It's a very very limited democracy with the same two parties again and again and the same few client oligarch possible presidents up for choice that come from the same backgrounds, Ivy League, close contact to corporate America, running the same political line again, and again, funded by the same elite...this is what China sees, what Russia sees, what Iran sees but what can not be said publicly or you are a conspiracy theorist, Chinese spy or whatever. Then you have a media sector that receives funding by the same clientele that sponsors the presidents and parties, very strict ideological line that you are not allowed to cross or you will receive a public shitstorm by some randoms...Musk says it regularly but then he will get cut from advertising and blocked...alliances are based on mutual interests and I see a lot of differences in interest. 

 

It is not about sharing values with the leadership and specific people on the top. If it were like that it would be doom to fail and last exactly as long as those people are in power. That is true both in the West and the Orient.
 

Mao had cordial relationship with Moscow until Stalin died. It was downhill from there. 
 

it is however about having a common belief of what kind of world we should have. This kind of values goes beyond specific leaders and can last for a long time. But it comes with a price tag. One has to give to be part of that. Your point of view of Germany First is actually is no different than Trumpian point of view of America First. 
 

Russia, China, and Iran, today their values are based on very narrow  interests of having a common enemy. That is not deep value. And is in fact highly brittle as it involves leaders and not countries themselves. 
 

An average Iranian, Chinese and Russian living in those countries have far different sets of value and sense of priority. An average European, Canadian and American have a much more aligned sets of value and what it is important.
 

One is brittle while the other is long lasting. But like Cubsfan said, one has to give. 

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

It is not about sharing values with the leadership and specific people on the top. If it were like that it would be doom to fail and last exactly as long as those people are in power. That is true both in the West and the Orient.
 

Mao had cordial relationship with Moscow until Stalin died. It was downhill from there. 

It is, look at Trump and what his impact was on German discussion around NATO and our military. Right after he said "Russia can just go, we won't defend Europe because they didn't pay 2%" we had a public debate about how reliable the US as an ally is. Shared values with current leadership...we had 16 years of Angela Merkel and relative stability, but now things look a lot more unstable because leadership changes, and with that the countries set up. 

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

it is however about having a common belief of what kind of world we should have. This kind of values goes beyond specific leaders and can last for a long time. But it comes with a price tag. One has to give to be part of that. Your point of view of Germany First is actually is no different than Trumpian point of view of America First. 

Well, I think that every country has a common belief that "development together" and "peace" are good values. China says that, we say that...but then it comes down to interest again...territory...economic advantages...better jobs...having manufacturing...having patents and the right on specific technology...

 

The fundamental human and political world is driven by interest and not by some "alliance". With that mindset you lose sight on what really matters--> Your own interest and that of your country. 

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Russia, China, and Iran, today their values are based on very narrow  interests of having a common enemy. That is not deep value. And is in fact highly brittle as it involves leaders and not countries themselves. 

I don't think they have a common enemy as their only shared interest but its of course one point. 

 

They both take care of their interests, which align today but could misalign tomorrow. Always have the option to leave and change partners because nothing is forever and it's better that way. 

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

An average Iranian, Chinese and Russian living in those countries have far different sets of value and sense of priority.

Well, those cultures grew up separate for a long time.

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

An average European, Canadian and American have a much more aligned sets of value and what it is important.

Because US citizens and Canadians literally came from Europe, that doesn't mean our economic interests align necessarily, especially with changing leadership. 

Edited April 21, 2024 by Luca

[John Hjorth]

From what I have read about the recent war sitution and the support package is this giant war support package to Ukranie from USA is not going trigger any European ally to losen up with similar support activity that we have just seen from USA, -at the contrary, likely instead it is and works as stimulation and motivation of the war support at USAs European war allies.

 

Personally I think that what i.e. Mike [ @cubsfan ] has written earlier above in this topic about the overall and present European sentiment and political situation related to the war is quite precise.

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good and short assessment of the situation from Sarah Paine :

 

She is correct (imo) that dictators tend to tell anyone who will listen what they are going to do, before they do it. She very well explains the difference between maritime and continental order and how cooperation creates wealth via win win versus expansion and win-lose.

Edited April 21, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Paarslaars]

https://pracap.com/on-china-why-the-real-risk-is-cny-5-not-9/

[Xerxes]

This was made few days before the $60B aid package.

 

First topic is interesting. I was not aware that “glide bombs” were such a novel thing. The rest is pretty well known. 
 

 

[Intelligent_Investor]

Market is probably pricing in the WSJ news this morning that the US is preparing to sanction China

[Malmqky]

6 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Market is probably pricing in the WSJ news this morning that the US is preparing to sanction China

 

looks like KWEB is up today? And my Chinese investments are up as well. Can you please clarify what you mean?

[Intelligent_Investor]

China was down the last several weeks, I'm assuming someone probably got wind of the news and was pricing it in

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [24^th April 2024] : Russia Threatens to Increase Strikes on Ukraine Over US Aid.

 

Just the usual Mainstream Media bull shit, - here, from Bloomberg.

[changegonnacome]

One of the key questions investors have asked themselves re:China is what do you own in the context of the CCP coming in one day, overriding shareholder ownerships principles and compelling these companies to do XYZ that hurts the shareholders returns by making them do something uneconomic....which the story goes is "your fault"....because you bought a company in a communist country that doesn't care about the free market.

 

Well as the US congress, senate and now WH are signing a law to force a US firm with foreign parent into a forced sales process from its overseas parent...the question a Chinese domiciled investor should be asking ( ironically in the context of the above) is can you trust an investment in a firm with a large United States domiciled component cause the US government might come in and force that company to do something uneconomic....like force it to sell a business in a fire sale.

[Hektor]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

One of the key questions investors have asked themselves re:China is what do you own in the context of the CCP coming in one day, overriding shareholder ownerships principles and compelling these companies to do XYZ that hurts the shareholders returns by making them do something uneconomic....which the story goes is "your fault"....because you bought a company in a communist country that doesn't care about the free market.

 

Well as the US congress, senate and now WH are signing a law to force a US firm with foreign parent into a forced sales process from its overseas parent...the question a Chinese domiciled investor should be asking ( ironically in the context of the above) is can you trust an investment in a firm with a large United States domiciled component cause the US government might come in and force that company to do something uneconomic....like force it to sell a business in a fire sale.

[Hektor]

13 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

One of the key questions investors have asked themselves re:China is what do you own in the context of the CCP coming in one day, overriding shareholder ownerships principles and compelling these companies to do XYZ that hurts the shareholders returns by making them do something uneconomic....which the story goes is "your fault"....because you bought a company in a communist country that doesn't care about the free market.

 

Well as the US congress, senate and now WH are signing a law to force a US firm with foreign parent into a forced sales process from its overseas parent...the question a Chinese domiciled investor should be asking ( ironically in the context of the above) is can you trust an investment in a firm with a large United States domiciled component cause the US government might come in and force that company to do something uneconomic....like force it to sell a business in a fire sale.

Also important to note that the CEO of TikTok USA, from what I can see, is moving around freely, does not plan to make a career switch into teaching or agriculture.

[crs223]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

One of the key questions investors have asked themselves re:China is what do you own in the context of the CCP coming in one day, overriding shareholder

 

I don’t think this is a question at all.  You’ve seen it play out.

 

CCP kidnapped Alibaba’s founder, took an “golden share”, and levied a $3B fine (about 1% of market cap).  A few years later Alibaba is allowed to pay a dividend and buy back shares.

[Xerxes]

 

The good professor is on fire !!

[Luke]

So ukrainian men that fled to Europe are now denied basic consular services and are hoped to be forced back into the country where they will be handed European and American weapons to fight for their freedom! Wow... 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/blatantly-illegal-zelenskyy-government-under-fire-for-refusing-issue-consulate-services-ukrainian-men-abroad/

 

 

Edited April 25, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

“No one had been talking about justice for servicemen in our country for a long time. But here it is, at least some small percentage of it," Ukrainian military medic Alina Mykhailova said in a post on Facebook. "No one sent us there either, but for some reason, we are there. If you don’t like it, give up your citizenship and go to hell.”

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

The good professor is on fire !!

 

That's a good video. He lays out the arms needs nicely and the desperation for help. He does however, completely avoid the topic of the manpower catastrophe that Ukraine faces. I believe you can assume the population of Ukraine is down to 25-30 million and the fighting age population significantly less. Your opponent has 144M and is dug in. You're not going to reclaim those lost territories - and you're fortunate to stop any advance.

 

You listen to the sophisticated weapons that are promised or needed - and you see the second problem - difficult & time-consuming training. In order to advance, are you going to involve Europeans??

 

The Russians can crank out munitions all day long, and one leader has a mountain of men to throw at the offensive or stalemate.

[Xerxes]

36 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

That's a good video. He lays out the arms needs nicely and the desperation for help. He does however, completely avoid the topic of the manpower catastrophe that Ukraine faces. I believe you can assume the population of Ukraine is down to 25-30 million and the fighting age population significantly less. Your opponent has 144M and is dug in. You're not going to reclaim those lost territories - and you're fortunate to stop any advance.

 

You listen to the sophisticated weapons that are promised or needed - and you see the second problem - difficult & time-consuming training. In order to advance, are you going to involve Europeans??

 

The Russians can crank out munitions all day long, and one leader has a mountain of men to throw at the offensive or stalemate.

 

Agreed

 

There is also the human individual element of it. 
 

Flocking to the patriotic flag during the dire hours of 2022 is one thing, two years later I would imagine there are two different world within the war torn Ukraine. 
 

Those in downtown of a major capital, protected like a fortress, with the occasional irritation and reminder of being at war. And those slugging it out in the trenches. 
 

Both sides enjoy the material and public support from the West, but only one side has to risk their lives everyday. 
 

I was in Tehran during the 8 years war, except for the occasional Scud missiles and air bombing via modified Mig25 (that broke through the F-14 shields) by the Iraqi and some line-ups for meat, live went on. I cannot say the same thing about the cities that were on the frontline with Iraq. 
 

I would expect as years go by, folks wanted to be in the camp that is Fortress Kyiv than being pulled

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2024 by Xerxes

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I was in Tehran during the 8 years war, except for the occasional Scud missiles and air bombing via modified Mig25 (that broke through the F-14 shields) by the Iraqi and some line-ups for meat, live went on. I cannot say the same thing about the cities that were on the frontline with Iraq. 

 

Oh my gosh. I had no idea. God bless you and your family!

[Xerxes]

^^^
 

thank you sir 

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [April 26^th 2024] : Sweden Ramps Up Defense Spending Goal to 2.6%, Past NATO Target, &

Bloomberg - Politics [April 24^th 2024] : Global Military Spending Tops $2 Trillion for First Time as Europe Boosts Defenses.^[1]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Something is actually happening and going on, Mike [ @cubsfan ] et. al. As with everything related to Politics, things take time, and is subject to a lot of inertia.

 

- Personally, I'm feeling confident, the general European sentiment about actual political support for the war of Ukraine against Russia now gradually is changing from 'empty / hollow' talk to real action.

 

Btw : How is it even possible to talk while [dam'n] thumb sucking?!

_______

 

^[1] I have today without luck tried to verify the data in the article on the NATO webpage.