Political Posts

[Luke]

17 hours ago, Sweet said:

Over a few rural regions - really Luca?  Putin tried to take the entire country but was stopped.  He is still trying to take the entire country.  What the heck are you smoking?

Two of these regions wanted to leave ukraine quite some time ago and see themselves closer to russia, the rest were annexed illegally, yes. But still, why risk this war and your people if peace agreements were in reach? 

17 hours ago, Sweet said:

The West did not stop peace negotiations.  There was no deal, no agreement on territory, or what a post war Ukraine would look like.  Ukraine was at the table because of weakness and walked away when they kicked the Russians out from large swathes of territory, and because they didn’t agree on Russian demands.

They did. The peace agreement was already drafted, and agreements on territory were also made. Ukraine was convinced to not agree and follow Boris Johnson and western pro-war arguments which led us to today. 

17 hours ago, Sweet said:

Putin for his part has been sending mixed messages.  Last month he said he wouldn’t negotiate, this month he said he was open to negotiating.  Again though, why would you trust Putin?  He has broken so many agreements that his word means nothing:

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4443781-history-shows-that-no-ceasefire-or-treaty-with-russia-can-be-trusted/#:~:text=Finally%2C aside from breaking ceasefires,site inspections of nuclear arms.

Again, negotiated peace is better than this war, what else is an option for Ukraine? 

17 hours ago, Sweet said:

Why shouldn’t a post war Ukraine join NATO or the EU?  It’s only a problem for Russia if Russia intends to attack Ukraine.

Because Ukraine is sitting next to a nuclear power that will not have its security impacted. The US would not allow anyone doing the same to them and would retaliate similar to russia if China or Russia would do the same at Canadian or Mexican borders...that's just the empire game. 

17 hours ago, Sweet said:

For what it’s worth, I also think a negotiated settlement is the way out of this.  The two sides are stalemated.  But just accepting Putin’s demands would be dumb.

Ukraine is not in a stalemate, they are in a way worse position by manpower, intact infrastructure, inner political stability, weapons. They are kept alive by US and western support and also we have to realize that we need negotiations and not further escalations with more and more damaging weapons. 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

How can people not see that this war is brilliant for the US? The perfect excuse to weaken russia perfectly legal and approved by all the western courts etc. China weakened too. PLEASE don't negotiate ukraine but drag this on as long as you can so russia wastes as much military as possible. The US is surely also hoping for more Russian inner destabilization so they can sponsor pro-democracy movements that are US focussed and remove the current leadership. 

 

Now if you ARE that leadership that sees these moves by the west via your own secret service, what would you do? 

 

Is the western media telling us the full story? Why does no one care about nordstream? Why are we only hearing the same one dimensional pro war arguments on the telly? 

 

The western populations were perfectly prepared to accept this war and the media sector for the most part played perfectly along. Dudes like tucker etc will be removed and called nuts, right winger whatever for even talking to putin...

Edited April 29, 2024 by Luca

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Luca said:

How can people not see that this war is brilliant for the US? The perfect excuse to weaken russia perfectly legal and approved by all the western courts etc. China weakened too. PLEASE don't negotiate ukraine but drag this on as long as you can so russia wastes as much military as possible. The US is surely also hoping for more Russian inner destabilization so they can sponsor pro-democracy movements that are US focussed and remove the current leadership. 

 

Now if you ARE that leadership that sees these moves by the west via your own secret service, what would you do? 

 

Is the western media telling us the full story? Why does no one care about nordstream? Why are we only hearing the same one dimensional pro war arguments on the telly? 

 

The western populations were perfectly prepared to accept this war and the media sector for the most part played perfectly along. Dudes like tucker etc will be removed and called nuts, right winger whatever for even talking to putin...

 

see 1854 Crimean War, it started off as helping the “sick man of Europe” (Turkey at the time, Ukraine today) against an aggressive Tsar, but soon became “let’s get glory while we are at it”. 

2022 war would have become the same thing with NATO boots in Ukraine if not for the MAD doctrine, where some sort of “equilibrium” is de facto established. 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

The US would not allow anyone doing the same to them and would retaliate similar to russia if China or Russia would do the same at Canadian or Mexican borders...that's just the empire game. 

your logic is not wrong. But where you are wrong is that you forget that the Kremlin lost the Cold War !!

 

You don’t get to lose and get to keep your imperial privileges at the same time.  

 

There are no rules to this game. Only what you make yourself. If Kremlin prevails in Ukraine in 2024-25, then a new equilibrium is established and imperial privileges are restored. 
 

And that is the future that the West is working hard to ensure that does not happen. 
 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2024 by Xerxes

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

They did. The peace agreement was already drafted, and agreements on territory were also made. Ukraine was convinced to not agree and follow Boris Johnson and western pro-war arguments which led us to today. 

That’s a lie.  The drafted document did not contain anything regarding territory.

 

“The talks had deliberately skirted the question of borders and territory. Evidently, the idea was for Putin and Zelensky to decide on those issues at the planned summit. It is easy to imagine that Putin would have insisted on holding all the territory that his forces had already occupied. The question is whether Zelensky could have been convinced to agree to this land grab. Despite these substantial disagreements, the April 15 draft suggests that the treaty would be signed within two weeks. Granted, that date might have shifted, but it shows that the two teams planned to move fast.”

https://archive.ph/9hKhZ

Your insistence that an agreement was reached in principle but not signed.  This is utterly wrong.  It’s Russian bs.
 

Edited April 29, 2024 by Sweet

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Ukraine is not in a stalemate, they are in a way worse position by manpower, intact infrastructure, inner political stability, weapons. They are kept alive by US and western support and also we have to realize that we need negotiations and not further escalations with more and more damaging weapons. 

 

A stalemate is when either side are unable to make significant ground.  Ukraine has had a weapons shortage for 6 months and how much has Russia gained?  Time will tell if Russia can break the stalemate.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

How can people not see that this war is brilliant for the US? The perfect excuse to weaken russia perfectly legal and approved by all the western courts etc. China weakened too. PLEASE don't negotiate ukraine but drag this on as long as you can so russia wastes as much military as possible. The US is surely also hoping for more Russian inner destabilization so they can sponsor pro-democracy movements that are US focussed and remove the current leadership. 

It’s irrelevant who it benefits.  
 

The US tried to prevent the war by publicly releasing classified material in troop build up and Putin’s plans to invade in the hopes Putin would see sense.

 

Putin launched it anyway.  He has only himself to blame.  He didn’t want NATO in his border, Sweden and Finland are now NATO counties.  Putin the master strategist.

[Xerxes]

Biden is buying the dip in Kazakhstan, scooping up outdated assets (possibly for Ukraine)

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/us-buys-81-soviet-era-145127753.html

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

 Putin the master strategist.

 

Yes, he certainly is indeed. It started when Obama ask Russian President Dmitry Medvedev - tell Putin to give me some space before the 2012 election and Obama would have "more flexibility on missile defense".

 

Putin did exactly that - so once Obama was elected - he cancelled the US plans for missile defense for Eastern Europe. Putin played Obama like a fiddle and figured he had his green light to take Crimea in 2014 - with only a tongue lashing from Barrack.

Edited April 29, 2024 by cubsfan

[Sweet]

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yes, he certainly is indeed. It started when Obama ask Russian President Dmitry Medvedev - tell Putin to give me some space before the 2012 election and Obama would have "more flexibility on missile defense".

 

Putin did exactly that - so once Obama was elected - he cancelled the US plans for missile defense for Eastern Europe. Putin played Obama like a fiddle and figured he had his green light to take Crimea in 2014 - with only a tongue lashing from Barrack.

That’s his reputation but his invasion of Ukraine, under the premise of preventing NATO from moving East, only to cause Finland and Sweden to join, is not his finest work.

 

Edited April 29, 2024 by Sweet

[cubsfan]

^^^ Totally agree. The price of Europe fully understanding deterrence just may be the loss of Ukraine. Obama & Biden certainly never learned a thing. 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

It’s irrelevant who it benefits.  
 

The US tried to prevent the war by publicly releasing classified material in troop build up and Putin’s plans to invade in the hopes Putin would see sense.

 

Putin launched it anyway.  He has only himself to blame.  He didn’t want NATO in his border, Sweden and Finland are now NATO counties.  Putin the master strategist.

 

 

Geopolitics and investing do have one thing in common:  Sometimes you get it very right but often you get it wrong. When the latter happens, you need re-evaluate.

 

Think about how many times Kissinger was wrong, yet we highlight his steering of U.S. toward PRC, and breaking the taboo as his legacy.

 

Putin certainly misread the situation and the reaction of the West in 2022. Yet, he is more powerful today in 2024 than he was in 2022.

 

People on this very board and Twitter, made lists of all the things Russia lost since 2022 (sanctions, NATO expansion, brain drain etc.) as if geopolitics is about doing NPV computations. 

 

I would argue that the world that is shaping up today is more aligned to Putin's liking than pre-2022. 

I would argue that he is a happier man today.

 

 

 

 

[Sweet]

39 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

 

Geopolitics and investing do have one thing in common:  Sometimes you get it very right but often you get it wrong. When the latter happens, you need re-evaluate.

 

Think about how many times Kissinger was wrong, yet we highlight his steering of U.S. toward PRC, and breaking the taboo as his legacy.

 

Putin certainly misread the situation and the reaction of the West in 2022. Yet, he is more powerful today in 2024 than he was in 2022.

 

People on this very board and Twitter, made lists of all the things Russia lost since 2022 (sanctions, NATO expansion, brain drain etc.) as if geopolitics is about doing NPV computations. 

 

I would argue that the world that is shaping up today is more aligned to Putin's liking than pre-2022. 

I would argue that he is a happier man today.

 

 

 

 

It’s certainly possible it is shaping to his liking and he is happier, but it’s also not possible to know one way or another with certainty.

 

In 2022 it was only a matter of days until Ukraine fell.  In 2023 all that was needed was on big push to dislodge the Russians.  In 2024 Ukraine is on the brink of defeat.

 

I admit to thinking it was all over in 2022, but I never believed Russia was a paper tiger in 2023, and I don’t believe Ukraine is as weak as current sentiment dictates.

 

We’ll know in 5 years probably.

[cubsfan]

^^ The Ukrainians put up an amazing defense. Unfortunately, with hindsight - their vaunted offensive was ill advised and a disaster given their resources. They'd have been far better served just digging in for a defensive campaign.

[Sweet]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^ The Ukrainians put up an amazing defense. Unfortunately, with hindsight - their vaunted offensive was ill advised and a disaster given their resources. They'd have been far better served just digging in for a defensive campaign.

 

Not sure I agree with that, it might even have been the opposite.

 

When Ukraine started to push the Russians back in 2022, the US military advised them to keep up the pressure because when the momentum is lost you give your enemy a chance to reset.  Momentum is hard to win.

 

Ukraine felt different, it felt (perhaps correctly) that it's troops needed a break, and that after the Winter they could renew their offensive (now proven incorrect).  Instead it gave time for the Russians to dig in and strengthen their position.

 

I am not sure how much effort the Ukrainians made to breaking through the lines in 2023.  There was never a gap that opened so I understand that much of the Western aid (tanks etc) is still available - although this could be bad information too.

 

 

Edited April 30, 2024 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

All those F-16 fighters donated last last year to Ukraine by several allies, where the heck are they, and what are they doing? - Accumulating dust somewhere in a hangar?

[Pelagic]

58 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

All those F-16 fighters donated last last year to Ukraine by several allies, where the heck are they, and what are they doing? - Accumulating dust somewhere in a hangar?

 

Ukraine hasn't received them yet, for a variety of reasons including training pilots and updating their radar's and electronics. Scheduled delivery is "early summer" so potentially within a month or so they should be arriving in Ukraine. 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

Not sure I agree with that, it might even have been the opposite.

 

When Ukraine started to push the Russians back in 2022, the US military advised them to keep up the pressure because when the momentum is lost you give your enemy a chance to reset.  Momentum is hard to win.

 

Ukraine felt different, it felt (perhaps correctly) that it's troops needed a break, and that after the Winter they could renew their offensive (now proven incorrect).  Instead it gave time for the Russians to dig in and strengthen their position.

 

I am not sure how much effort the Ukrainians made to breaking through the lines in 2023.  There was never a gap that opened so I understand that much of the Western aid (tanks etc) is still available - although this could be bad information too.

 

 

you are missing one crucial fact. 
 

Bakhmut. 
 

The city became a political objective for Zelensky both to draw Russian manpower and deny the Russian the city as a victory. That Ukrainian political obsession with Bakhmut is what allowed Russian General Staff to build the incredible defensive Survikin Line, while empty their prisons to support Zelensky’ political cause. 
 

Ukraine may have killed at a ratio of 1-4 (or more) for now fallen Bakhmut, but it could ill afford the 1 vs 4, given the quality of its troops vs human wave coming out of prisons. 
 

 

Ps : also at some point in 2023, Ukraine moved back from its aspiration to fight like a NATO joint force and revert back to what knows well. Soviet style warfare. 
 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2024 by Xerxes

[Sweet]

27 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

you are missing one crucial fact. 
 

Bakhmut. 
 

The city became a political objective for Zelensky both to draw Russian manpower and deny the Russian the city as a victory. That Ukrainian political obsession with Bakhmut is what allowed Russian General Staff to build the incredible defensive Survikin Line, while empty their prisons to support Zelensky’ political cause. 
 

Ukraine may have killed at a ratio of 1-4 (or more) for now fallen Bakhmut, but it could ill afford the 1 vs 4, given the quality of its troops vs human wave coming out of prisons. 
 

 

Ps : also at some point in 2023, Ukraine moved back from its aspiration to fight like a NATO joint force and revert back to what knows well. Soviet style warfare. 
 

 

 

I’m not forgetting Bakhmut, I would lump it into the 2023 failure.  There too the Americans advised against spending too much energy.  Much in keeping with what I meant above.

 

[Sweet]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Ps : also at some point in 2023, Ukraine moved back from its aspiration to fight like a NATO joint force and revert back to what knows well. Soviet style warfare. 

Was busy earlier but wondered what you meant by this?

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Was busy earlier but wondered what you meant by this?

I think it was Koffman who spoke to this more than anybody else. 
 

He suggested that neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian armies today are the armies (in terms of composition) that we saw in early 2022, given the high level of attrition. 
 

Ukrainian army has lost its youngest more capable, Western oriented generation and today the army is led by more its Soviet-influenced officers, coming out of retirement to backfill. These folks are more top down as oppose to Western style self sustained decision making at unit level that characterize the early days. 
 

Also, my understanding was that Western advisors were leaning on Ukraine to use combined-army approach, (land and air forces working in close collaboration to make breakthrough), and that at some point during the offensive Ukrainian high command throw in the towel and revert back to what it knows best: artillery duels. Koffman view (if I remember correctly) was that it was a mistake for the West to lean on them to do something they were yet ready for. Something along those lines. Valuable time and resources were lost. 
 

One thing that Ukraine has done really well is waging asymmetrical warfare in the Black Sea and deep within Russia using drones. It doesn’t win your lands back but I suppose you got to keep hitting where it hurts at the underbelly. 
 

 

 

[ValueArb]

On 4/30/2024 at 6:46 AM, Pelagic said:

 

Ukraine hasn't received them yet, for a variety of reasons including training pilots and updating their radar's and electronics. Scheduled delivery is "early summer" so potentially within a month or so they should be arriving in Ukraine. 

 

I used to believe they sandbag delivery estimates so Russia can't fully prepare for them before they arrive. But last week rumors were being printed about Ukraine getting ATACMS with unitary warheads before any have been seen in use, so I'm probably wrong about that. 

[Luke]

On 4/29/2024 at 5:47 PM, Sweet said:

That’s a lie.  The drafted document did not contain anything regarding territory.

 

“The talks had deliberately skirted the question of borders and territory. Evidently, the idea was for Putin and Zelensky to decide on those issues at the planned summit. It is easy to imagine that Putin would have insisted on holding all the territory that his forces had already occupied. The question is whether Zelensky could have been convinced to agree to this land grab. Despite these substantial disagreements, the April 15 draft suggests that the treaty would be signed within two weeks. Granted, that date might have shifted, but it shows that the two teams planned to move fast.”

https://archive.ph/9hKhZ

Your insistence that an agreement was reached in principle but not signed.  This is utterly wrong.  It’s Russian bs.
 

I reread the document, you are right that discussions about the regions are not included but its clear that they wont be returned. I talked with a good friend of mine who is russian and from st.petersburg, also has multiple ukranian friends who have their own little community here in Germany. He also has friends from the annexed regions. In general he said that these regions were looking to Russia for a long time, the regions were shitholes, with no jobs, and bandit kind of local government. The people who didn't like Russia either left before or fled to Ukraine after the war but its not as material as the west might want it to look like. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:49 PM, Sweet said:

A stalemate is when either side are unable to make significant ground.  Ukraine has had a weapons shortage for 6 months and how much has Russia gained?  Time will tell if Russia can break the stalemate.

Ukraine tried to break through russian lines but miserably failed because they lack man power and weapons. They went on offense and lost and have to grab more and more man that become also more and more unwilling. My russian friend said that in russia/st Petersburg the atmosphere to this war is surprisingly positive, there are many who want to fight and they get paid very very well. But of course, as with China, we only hear how oppressed and miserable their population is. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:55 PM, Sweet said:

It’s irrelevant who it benefits.  

Absolutely not. At least its relevant if you want to understand why this war gets dragged on so much and why the west is so heavily invested. Did they care that the eastern regions in ukraine were criminal shitholes? Noone cared. But now ukraine is THE media topic in the most positive light. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:55 PM, Sweet said:

The US tried to prevent the war by publicly releasing classified material in troop build up and Putin’s plans to invade in the hopes Putin would see sense.

The US also hoped that the Russian population would go against Putin and their government would crumble together with the sanctions...all of this didn't materialize. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:55 PM, Sweet said:

Putin launched it anyway.  He has only himself to blame.  He didn’t want NATO in his border, Sweden and Finland are now NATO counties.  Putin the master strategist.

Well, the Russians certainly learned a lot during the war and look pretty well positioned considering the situation. 

Edited May 2, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

On 2/6/2024 at 1:54 PM, Luca said:

Its the year of the dragon folks, Xi aims to beat SP 500 this year...;-)

On 2/7/2024 at 9:22 AM, Parsad said:

 

That might be tough.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-facing-us-financial-crisis-234945940.html

Edited May 2, 2024 by Luca

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Absolutely not. At least its relevant if you want to understand why this war gets dragged on so much and why the west is so heavily invested. Did they care that the eastern regions in ukraine were criminal shitholes? Noone cared. But now ukraine is THE media topic in the most positive light. 

The war is dragging on because the Ukrainians don’t want to be dominated by the Russians, and the Russians would like to take over all of Ukraine.  

 

No further explanation is required.

 

When I say it’s irrelevant who the war benefits I’m specifically referring to your insinuation that it’s the US causing the war to drag on because it suits America.  Bullshit.

It would suit America and Europe just fine if Russia didn’t start the war in the first place.

 

Plenty of people cared about Ukraine before the invasion in 2022.  I remember a tense meeting with Obama and Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine about a decade ago.

 

It’s convenient for you to ignore such concerns but it’s also ironic that it’s people like you that also simultaneously claim that it was the West’s meddling in the Ukrainian’s Orange revolution that started all this.  You can’t have it both ways, the West not caring, but also caring enough to meddle.  Pick one.

 

Edited May 2, 2024 by Sweet