Political Posts

[Hektor]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-chinas-retirement-crisis-is-contributing-to-weak-consumption-811dc64a

 

How China’s Retirement Crisis Is Contributing to Weak Consumption

Demographics and a feeble economy are straining both China’s pension system and the family tradition of children caring for aging parents.

[hillfronter83]

a pretty balanced view (IMO) from an expat:

 

[Hektor]

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/05/17/chinas-real-estate-workers-90-pay-cuts-skipping-social-events-survive-property-slump/

 

The slump has tossed some 500,000 people out of the property sector in the three years through 2023, according to Ke Yan Zhi Ku, a real estate research group. That’s not counting workers in related industries such as construction and marketing. They’re all facing setbacks in the middle of their careers, forced to make skill adjustments “on an epic scale,” says Alex Capri, senior fellow at the National University of Singapore. “The property meltdown is feeding a wider sense of somber reflection.”

 

The days when some real estate companies doled out Mercedes-Benzes as yearend bonuses are a distant memory, but many analysts say this isn’t rock bottom yet. The housing sector’s economic heft may shrink to about 16% of China’s GDP by 2026, according to Bloomberg Economics. That possibility threatens to put about 5 million people—equal to the population of Ireland—at risk of unemployment or reduced incomes, the analysts wrote. Even young workers in their prime are struggling to find jobs, with the youth unemployment rate reaching 15.3% after China revised its data methodology. 

[formthirteen]

Quote

We spend too much time worrying about what the Russians might do. Instead, we should make them worry about what we're capable of

 

https://odessa-journal.com/general-ben-hodges-we-spend-too-much-time-worrying-about-what-the-russians-might-do-instead-we-should-make-them-worry-about-what-were-capable-of

 

This article confirmed my bias and contradicts the views of most Western leaders politicians, especially the German chancellors:

 

Gerhard Schröder

Angela Merkel

Olaf Scholz

[formthirteen]

Thrill-seekers of COBF be aware:

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-austria-spy-service-bvt-government-intelligence-wirecard-jan-marsalek-freedom-party/

 

Quote

Putin hijacked Austria’s spy service. Now he's going after its government

 

Intelligence officials suspect Wirecard COO Jan Marsalek of colluding with the far-right Freedom Party on Moscow’s behalf.

 

Quote

Like many an espionage career, Marsalek’s began with what is known in the trade as a “honeytrap.” A lifelong bachelor with a reputation as a thrill seeker (one of his Russian handlers later took him to Palmyra in Syria to see the war there up close), Marsalek, then in his mid-30s, was ripe for the taking.

 

Her name was “Natasha.” An erotic model who had once played a Russian agent in a vampire B-movie called “Red Lips II-Blood Lust,” Natasha, aka Natalia Zlobina, met Marsalek in 2013.

 

[Hektor]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/25/world/asia/china-surveillance-xi.html
 

Xi Jinping’s Recipe for Total Control: An Army of Eyes and Ears

Reviving a Mao-era surveillance campaign, the authorities are tracking residents, schoolchildren and businesses to forestall any potential unrest.

 

The Chinese Communist Party has long wielded perhaps the world’s most sweeping surveillance apparatus against activists and others who might possibly voice discontent. Then, during the coronavirus pandemic, the surveillance reached an unprecedented scale, tracking virtually every urban resident in the name of preventing infections.

 

Now, it is clear that Mr. Xi wants to make that expanded control permanent, and to push it even further.

 

The goal is no longer just to address specific threats, such as the virus or dissidents. It is to embed the party so deeply in daily life that no trouble, no matter how seemingly minor or apolitical, can even arise.

Mr. Xi has branded this effort the “Fengqiao experience for a new era.” The Beijing suburb in the propaganda video, Zhangjiawan, was recently recognized in state media as a national exemplar of the approach.

“Fengqiao” refers to a town where, during the Mao era, the party encouraged residents to “re-educate” purported political enemies, through so-called struggle sessions where people were publicly insulted and humiliated until they admitted crimes such as writing anti-communist poetry.

 

Mr. Xi, who invokes Fengqiao regularly in major speeches, has not called for a revival of struggle sessions, in which supposed offenders were sometimes beaten or tortured. But the idea is the same: harnessing ordinary people alongside the police to suppress any challenges to the party and uphold the party’s legitimacy.

[coffeecaninvestor]

This might have been brought up before but it really got me thinking about the quality of GDP for countries, and the complexity of international investing. I was listening to a podcast (if I remember  the episode I will send the link) and the guest was negative on China. His thesis was that the country is really great at producing GDP, but not wealth. He gave an example that they will spend billions building a bridge that will save the population making very little wages and the ROIC will be terrible versus doing that in the US where the economics are much better. I think China is in the too hard pile for me… I’m sure there will be some winners there, but on average over time I think things are just too difficult. I got close to buying Tencent mainly because a good chunk of its revenue was global, but didn’t pull the trigger. If CM only had a 50% win rate in China with Li Lu as a resource what chance do I have picking a winner there.. 

[Intelligent_Investor]

You can get rich with a much lower than 50% win rate

[Castanza]

18 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

You can get rich with a much lower than 50% win rate

 

You can also become poor with a similar rate 

[james22]

2 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

. . . the complexity of international investing.

 

 

 

[coffeecaninvestor]

27 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

You can get rich with a much lower than 50% win rate

I agree but we aren't Charlie or Li Lu so our hit rate is bound to be less and/or luck will be a much larger component rather than skill/edge.  

[ValueArb]

LazerPig is youtube military historian who specializes in debunking popular beliefs about specific military systems (he's done videos on how the T-34, the T-14 Armata Tank, most Nazi tanks and the A-10 all sucked or suck, the F-35 & Chieftain are actually very good, and the Fighter Mafia was way wrong on Stealth). He also does some very good analysis on strategy/ukraine.

 

This video he's branched out into a political analysis of Putin. It's an hour long but I found his perspective interesting. Most specifically Lazerpig believes that Putin is insulated from reality, fed misinformation about Ukraine by his own supplicants that he actually believes (its full of Nazis, Ukrainians will greet Russians like liberators), and that Putin has always believed in a grand western conspiracy to spread Color Revolution (democratic rebellions against autocratic governments), and that this explains his attempts to manipulate western elections and push divisive political movements like Brexit, Scottish Independence, and MAGA. 

 

It does make a certain amount of sense that a man who spent his entire career before politics planning and executing anti-western psy-ops (and assassination plots) believes that western nations are in a grand conspiracy to bring him and his allies down with elaborate psy-ops and assassination plots.

 

 

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

LazerPig is youtube military historian who specializes in debunking popular beliefs about specific military systems (he's done videos on how the T-34, the T-14 Armata Tank, most Nazi tanks and the A-10 all sucked or suck, the F-35 & Chieftain are actually very good, and the Fighter Mafia was way wrong on Stealth). He also does some very good analysis on strategy/ukraine.

 

This video he's branched out into a political analysis of Putin. It's an hour long but I found his perspective interesting. Most specifically Lazerpig believes that Putin is insulated from reality, fed misinformation about Ukraine by his own supplicants that he actually believes (its full of Nazis, Ukrainians will greet Russians like liberators), and that Putin has always believed in a grand western conspiracy to spread Color Revolution (democratic rebellions against autocratic governments), and that this explains his attempts to manipulate western elections and push divisive political movements like Brexit, Scottish Independence, and MAGA. 

 

It does make a certain amount of sense that a man who spent his entire career before politics planning and executing anti-western psy-ops (and assassination plots) believes that western nations are in a grand conspiracy to bring him and his allies down with elaborate psy-ops and assassination plots.

 

 

Why would a Youtuber know more about the situation in Ukraine/Russia than the head of a 2T economy and developed nation with international alliances with China etc that all (incl. Russia) have extensive secret service operations and information streams that are vastly superior to Lazer Pig? 

[Luke]

At this point it's ridiculous. Youtubers are telling us now that they know what's wrong with Putin and that Putin has no control and correct information and he debunked him now and I can watch this information straight from my couch? 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I have to give it to the guy, Putin must be the happiest person right now. Nobody cares about Ukraine anymore, while everyone watched Palestine, this guy appeases his allies in the Middle East while continuing what he is doing on the western front. Biggest winner here imo after weapon manufacturers.

Edited May 29, 2024 by whatstheofficerproblem

[Xerxes]

About a year later. Remember the big powwow about Abrams. 
 

Koffman said at the time, Abrams gets an outsize share of media attention but Ukraine doesn’t need that. It needs M2, M113 and such. 
 

The video below includes interview with Ukrainian drivers of Abrams. They look and sound dismayed on how irrelevant Abrams is outside NATO/Western doctrine without massive aerial superiority and such. 
 

I am not expert on the topic, but recall describing Abrams as lumbering beasts of a bygone age, somewhere in this thread. 
 

You want to talk about YouTubers, just go back to whatever everyone said in 2022, 23 and 24. A point of view is a static snapshot of how things are seen here and now. And becomes obsolete as time moves forward. 

The Ukrainian user of Abrams complained about that it is not usable in the age of drones.
 

Dare I say, are we witnessing the end of age of “dreadnaughts”. There will always be a use for armoured vehicles but a gas-turbine powered giant prone to breakdown and without Western finely-tuned logistics, I am not so sure.  

 

 

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Why would a Youtuber know more about the situation in Ukraine/Russia than the head of a 2T economy and developed nation with international alliances with China etc that all (incl. Russia) have extensive secret service operations and information streams that are vastly superior to Lazer Pig? 

 

I stand corrected. Putin was clearly well informed when he thought Ukrainians would greet Russian troops as liberators, that the special operation would only take three days, that their logistics were adequate, that their trucks were well maintained, that their troops were well trained, led and motivated, that their navy would dominate the black sea against an opponent without a navy, that their air bases and oil refineries were safe from drone attacks, and that the EU/UK/US wouldn't lift a finger to help Ukraine.

 

I'll make sure not to share any alternative points of view in the future, esp. from youtubers no matter how well informed they've been on military topics.

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

About a year later. Remember the big powwow about Abrams. 
 

Koffman said at the time, Abrams gets an outsize share of media attention but Ukraine doesn’t need that. It needs M2, M113 and such. 
 

The video below includes interview with Ukrainian drivers of Abrams. They look and sound dismayed on how irrelevant Abrams is outside NATO/Western doctrine without massive aerial superiority and such. 
 

I am not expert on the topic, but recall describing Abrams as lumbering beasts of a bygone age, somewhere in this thread. 
 

You want to talk about YouTubers, just go back to whatever everyone said in 2022, 23 and 24. A point of view is a static snapshot of how things are seen here and now. And becomes obsolete as time moves forward. 

The Ukrainian user of Abrams complained about that it is not usable in the age of drones.
 

Dare I say, are we witnessing the end of age of “dreadnaughts”. There will always be a use for armoured vehicles but a gas-turbine powered giant prone to breakdown and without Western finely-tuned logistics, I am not so sure.  

 

 

 

Most reports I've seen say the Abrams has performed exceedingly well in the Ukraine. Sure, drones are a problem but they are bigger problems if you don't have tanks.

 

Tanks are meant to go into dangerous areas and protect their crews while raining down heavy fire on protected positions. No tank has ever been immune to anti-tank weapons, the question is how tough is it and how safe is it. Ideally when one is knocked out, it saves the crew and can be repaired and returned to service. Again, the reports I've seen say Abrams been outstanding at crew protection.

 

And "prone to breakdowns"? The Abrams is very tough, its engine can use a variety of fuels and run far longer than its typical western maintenance intervals.  US Abrams crews have commented on how much longer the engine can go between rebuilds than its specifications. We have at least a thousand first gen Abrams rotting away in our depots, and they should all be serviced and sent to Ukraine. 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

I stand corrected. Putin was clearly well informed when he thought Ukrainians would greet Russian troops as liberators, that the special operation would only take three days, that their logistics were adequate, that their trucks were well maintained, that their troops were well trained, led and motivated, that their navy would dominate the black sea against an opponent without a navy, that their air bases and oil refineries were safe from drone attacks, and that the EU/UK/US wouldn't lift a finger to help Ukraine.

 

I'll make sure not to share any alternative points of view in the future, esp. from youtubers no matter how well informed they've been on military topics.

Who knows what his plans and thoughts were. He certainly achieved taking over the regions. Find it a bit odd to take youtubers serious who claim to debunk Putin and how dumb he is, little informed etc all straight out of their mothers basement

[formthirteen]

 

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

surely he means the game 

 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Most reports I've seen say the Abrams has performed exceedingly well in the Ukraine. Sure, drones are a problem but they are bigger problems if you don't have tanks.

 

Tanks are meant to go into dangerous areas and protect their crews while raining down heavy fire on protected positions. No tank has ever been immune to anti-tank weapons, the question is how tough is it and how safe is it. Ideally when one is knocked out, it saves the crew and can be repaired and returned to service. Again, the reports I've seen say Abrams been outstanding at crew protection.

 

And "prone to breakdowns"? The Abrams is very tough, its engine can use a variety of fuels and run far longer than its typical western maintenance intervals.  US Abrams crews have commented on how much longer the engine can go between rebuilds than its specifications. We have at least a thousand first gen Abrams rotting away in our depots, and they should all be serviced and sent to Ukraine. 

make sense. Between having or not having them, having the them is the one you go with. 
 

But when it comes to prioritizing what is important, were they that important back in 2023. Or were they more of a trophy symbolic gesture. 
 

 

[ValueArb]

25 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

make sense. Between having or not having them, having the them is the one you go with. 
 

But when it comes to prioritizing what is important, were they that important back in 2023. Or were they more of a trophy symbolic gesture. 
 

 

 

I'm not a military expert. But I would definitely prioritize Bradleys over Abrams. They are very capable against Russian tanks on their own, cheaper, easier to maintain, lighter so they can go more places and far more useful since they carry troops. 

 

A big tank with a big gun like Abrams/Challenger is really designed to be used is on large areas of open ground where they can see and destroy targets thousands of yards away. Using them in heavily defended areas with minefields, trenches, or urban combat usually requires moving with infantry to keep them from getting ambushed. The closer the defenders are the easier it is for their weapons to penetrate. 

 

If Ukraine had a break-through situation where squads of tanks poured freely into large unprepared fields behind the lines, tanks would get much more important. They could move at relatively high speeds that would make them harder to target with artillery and drones, and destroy enemy positions from miles away before the enemy is even prepared for them. 

 

The Bradley seems to work better in dense combat areas like urban areas. Its auto cannon is more than enough to suppress most targets, while troops can use it for cover as they exit the back and then work to flank the enemy position. And when they run into a Russian tank, they blind it using the auto cannon to paint it with a high volume of rounds so they can run away or setup to take it out with a TOW.

Edited May 29, 2024 by ValueArb

[ValueArb]

50 minutes ago, Luca said:

Who knows what his plans and thoughts were. He certainly achieved taking over the regions. Find it a bit odd to take youtubers serious who claim to debunk Putin and how dumb he is, little informed etc all straight out of their mothers basement

 

Yea, Putin went from controlling Crimea so he could have deep water ports for the Black Sea fleet and 10% of Ukraine (the Donbas), to controlling Crimea and 15% of Ukraine, all at a cost of only a half million men, most of his modern tanks, 10% of his air force and nearly half the Black Sea fleet sunk or disabled. All while being trapped in a Vietnam like debacle for three years he can't get out of lest he risk being overthrown. 

 

Thats a level of genius that even a youtuber in his mothers basement could not comprehend, i'll give you that. 

 

Best part of the video is in the comments. Putin and Russians love to compare themselves to manly Spartans defending civilization from soft woke western fems, all the while forgetting that the Spartans were ultimately crushed by Thebes and made utterly irrelevant for the remainder of history because the Spartan flanking group was eviscerated by Thebe's Sacred Band, made up of 300 gay lovers who were the real baddest warriors in Greece.

[Xerxes]

Thanks ValueArb