Political Posts

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

 

What is to stop Putin just having another go in a few years?

 

Ukraine would need security guarantees, which may include NATO membership for this to be ensured to end in a stalemate.

that is somewhat true. 
 

For NATO inclusion to be effective, it needs to be based on agreed by both sides border. And not pre-2014 border. 
 

Since one cannot expand NATO membership to Ukraine with one fifth of the country under occupation. That would automatically create a formal state of war between Russia and NATO. 
 

Russia needs to accept (wether it likes or not) that as price to formally keep the territories in Eastern Ukraine there needs to be a some sort of NATO membership or very explicit security guarantees for the now shrunken Ukraine. Otherwise no one would believe it can hold. 

[formthirteen]

Unrelated perhaps, but here are some stocks that have mooned since the start of the war:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RHM.DE

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SAAB-B.ST

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LDO.MI

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOG.OL

 

The war might be a good thing for the US defense industry, but the stocks haven't moved much. Germany is now officially allowed to start producing war machines again. Previously, they were demilitarized by NATO (USA), depending on your viewpoint.

Edited March 15, 2024 by formthirteen

[formthirteen]

Quote

INTERNATIONAL DEFENCE COMPANIES

Edition 2024

 

Maintaining our competitiveness and technological lead is, more than ever, a major challenge for France.
This new 2024 edition of the «International Defence Companies» notebook is published in light of these issues.
This publication provides key data from publicly available sources, for a selection of international companies chosen each year according to their main activities in the defence sector.

 

https://www.defense.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/dga/International Defence Companies notebook 2024 edition.pdf

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, formthirteen said:

Unrelated perhaps, but here are some stocks that have mooned since the start of the war:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RHM.DE

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SAAB-B.ST

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LDO.MI

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOG.OL

 

The war might be a good thing for the US defense industry, but the stocks haven't moved much. Germany is now officially allowed to start producing war machines again. Previously, they were demilitarized by NATO (USA), depending on your viewpoint.

And most important: BAE Aerospace. 

[formthirteen]

I think I found a solution to the war:

 

 

 

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-fines-evergrande-hui-bans-125059847.html

 

Cheers!

[Sweet]

On 3/10/2024 at 2:27 PM, Luca said:

Also find it quite funny that western countries focus SO much on "DEMOCRACY" (the process) while OUTCOMES apparently seem to matter less. I have to say, I care more for the outcome of a society than for the process and id say that is true for a large swatch of chinese people.

Because the outcomes in Democracies are obviously significantly worse than authoritarian?  What a weird thing to say.

[WFF]

For those that haven’t had a chance, reading Li Lu’s book titled “Civilization, Modernization, China and Value Investing” is worthwhile.  I read the Chinese version, not sure if an English translation is available.   It is structured like Poor Charlie’s Almanac, so you can read one chapter at a time.  And lots to think after each section.
 

Lots of nuggets, I remember a section is on the misunderstanding of the east from the west and vice versa.  The book critique of Richard Koo’s book  “The other half of macroeconomics and the fate of globalization” on Japan and the 4 phases was also quite interesting (it tried to explain QE’s limited impact on inflation) and what governments should be doing.  

Edited March 19, 2024 by WFF
Formatting issue

[Luke]

 

Michael Hudson (born March 14, 1939) is an American economist, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri–Kansas City.

 

Hudson notes that the existing economic theory, the Chicago School in particular, serves rentiers and financiers and has developed a special language designed to reinforce the impression that there is no alternative to the status quo. In a false theory, the parasitic encumbrances of a real economy, instead of being deducted in accounting, add up as an addition to the gross domestic product and are presented as productive. Hudson sees consumer protection, state support of infrastructure projects, and taxation of rentier sectors of the economy rather than workers, as a continuation of the line of classical economists today.

 

 

I have enjoyed this interview, Hudson is really coming into it from a different angle but makes many good points that especially hit home to how the chinese government sees the economy right now: 

 

Financial capitalism vs industrial capitalism. Real economy vs empty factories in NY that are revamped as luxury apartments. 

 

Especially his points regarding using other countries cheap labor force with preventing their development rings a bell. 

 

I think he is worth reading and listening to. 

 

 EDIT: He was also sceptical about the mortgage fiasco pre 2008: 

 

In an April 2006 article in Harper's, just before the Great Recession of 2007-08, Hudson predicted a crash of US housing prices.

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

Also regarding "chinese marxists thought". This rings the bells regarding CCP interventions that tackle exactly this: 

 

Marx and many of his less radical contemporary reformers saw the historical role of industrial capitalism as being to clear away the legacy of feudalism—the landlords, bankers, and monopolists extracting economic rent without producing real value. However, that reform movement failed. Today, the finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) sector has regained control of government, creating neo-rentier economies. The aim of this postindustrial finance capitalism is the opposite of industrial capitalism as known to nineteenth-century economists: it seeks wealth primarily through the extraction of economic rent, not industrial capital formation. Tax favoritism for real estate, privatization of oil and mineral extraction, and banking and infrastructure monopolies add to the cost of living and doing business. Labor is increasingly exploited by bank debt, student debt, and credit card debt while housing and other prices are inflated on credit, leaving less income to spend on goods and services as economies suffer debt deflation."

 

Hudson also argues Marx was too optimistic. History did not go in the direction of Capitalism evolving into Socialism—at least not yet. Since the 1930s today's modern capitalism is dominated by non-productive rentier classes. In classical economics, which includes Marx, the proletariat as a class is better off paying as few rents as possible. This is because wages can be lower if workers have less overhead. This lowers the price of goods they produce lower, making them more competitive on the international market. This is also the logic of making healthcare a public commons run not-for-profit by the government. This enables wages to be lower for workers. Non-productive rents, tactics and strategies are making all countries, the US included, less self-sufficient. This connects back with the idea of a debt jubilee; and, with taxing non-productive activity, not workers and manufacturing. The cost of doing nothing is high. Left to run wild, the ever-growing need for debt and rents causes history to regress back to a neo-feudal system; where, your employer pays for your healthcare, provides you your housing and keeps workers in debt permanently.

[Luke]

Reigniting labor and focussing on the real economy, investment in technology and productivity growth while keeping the consumer's buying power high enough. 

 

The only problem for china would be tariffs and artificial suppression of demand by the west. 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

 

Michael Hudson (born March 14, 1939) is an American economist, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri–Kansas City.

 

Hudson notes that the existing economic theory, the Chicago School in particular, serves rentiers and financiers and has developed a special language designed to reinforce the impression that there is no alternative to the status quo. In a false theory, the parasitic encumbrances of a real economy, instead of being deducted in accounting, add up as an addition to the gross domestic product and are presented as productive. Hudson sees consumer protection, state support of infrastructure projects, and taxation of rentier sectors of the economy rather than workers, as a continuation of the line of classical economists today.

 

 

I have enjoyed this interview, Hudson is really coming into it from a different angle but makes many good points that especially hit home to how the chinese government sees the economy right now: 

 

Financial capitalism vs industrial capitalism. Real economy vs empty factories in NY that are revamped as luxury apartments. 

 

Especially his points regarding using other countries cheap labor force with preventing their development rings a bell. 

 

I think he is worth reading and listening to. 

 

 EDIT: He was also sceptical about the mortgage fiasco pre 2008: 

 

In an April 2006 article in Harper's, just before the Great Recession of 2007-08, Hudson predicted a crash of US housing prices.

 

 

 

Wait, where did I hear this before?  Oh yes, in the USSR, reading Das Kapital!  The only parasites that I can see is him and his fellow professors in academia

[Luke]

7 hours ago, Dinar said:

Wait, where did I hear this before?  Oh yes, in the USSR, reading Das Kapital!  The only parasites that I can see is him and his fellow professors in academia

He is not a communist advocate, but you can't deny several observations Karl Marx did. 

 

Being a professor is an important job in our societies, and he certainly provides a lot of value too, nothing about being a parasite. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ It's a big mistake to hold many professors in esteem. You can see the disaster playing out among higher education in America. I've got more respect for carpenters and heavy equipment operators than many professors.

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ It's a big mistake to hold many professors in esteem. You can see the disaster playing out among higher education in America. I've got more respect for carpenters and heavy equipment operators than many professors.

Yup...the biggest grift in America right now is the guys getting paid 6 figures with amazing benefits and complete job security to drink craft beers and teach/hit on young adults 4 hours a day, 3 days a week. 

[Dinar]

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yup...the biggest grift in America right now is the guys getting paid 6 figures with amazing benefits and complete job security to drink craft beers and teach/hit on young adults 4 hours a day, 3 days a week. 

And just 12 weeks a year at a place like NYU, Yale, Columbia...

[Dinar]

6 hours ago, Luca said:

He is not a communist advocate, but you can't deny several observations Karl Marx did. 

 

Being a professor is an important job in our societies, and he certainly provides a lot of value too, nothing about being a parasite. 

Karl Marx was the ultimate parasite - lived on money that Engels gave him by exploiting his workers.   Karl Marx denied the role of incentives and human nature.  His taught incitement, his followers murdered more people than Hitler.  It boggles the mind that Nazis are universally reviled and communists are celebrated by intellectuals.

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Karl Marx was the ultimate parasite - lived on money that Engels gave him by exploiting his workers.   Karl Marx denied the role of incentives and human nature.  His taught incitement, his followers murdered more people than Hitler.  It boggles the mind that Nazis are universally reviled and communists are celebrated by intellectuals.

If you would have listened to the interview, he talks about exactly that at minute 50:00. The problem with today's left, wrong focus of the problem, china and milton friedman etc

 

He also didnt celebrate Marx, but he pointed things out that marx already talked about, which are a correct assesment of the current economic situation. 

 

 

[Luke]

54 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yup...the biggest grift in America right now is the guys getting paid 6 figures with amazing benefits and complete job security to drink craft beers and teach/hit on young adults 4 hours a day, 3 days a week. 

I dont know about the situation in the US but professors in the EU are suffering shitbags, slaves during exhaustive PHDs, tons of debt, bad pay compared to efforts, hard to become tenured, hard to get funding, publication pressure etc

 

The professors i know dont make bank, work hard and are an asset to the country. 

 

Maybe a tiny percentage of gender professors do weird things but its super hard to get to these positions too. 

 

 

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Luca said:

I dont know about the situation in the US but professors in the EU are suffering shitbags, slaves during exhaustive PHDs, tons of debt, bad pay compared to efforts, hard to become tenured, hard to get funding, publication pressure etc

 

The professors i know dont make bank, work hard and are an asset to the country. 

 

Maybe a tiny percentage of gender professors do weird things but its super hard to get to these positions too. 

 

 

Yea, not here....Here even high school teachers get great benefits, job security, and time adjusted pay....they whine, but leave out they get off weeks for the winter, months for the summer, spring break, and all the other typicals. But the private school ones along with college/university...especially in the grad schools, are where you find the real enemies of the people. 

[Gregmal]

Like think of the ones who get mad if you dont call them "doctor" even though they do literature or philosophy LOL

[Dinar]

20 minutes ago, Luca said:

If you would have listened to the interview, he talks about exactly that at minute 50:00. The problem with today's left, wrong focus of the problem, china and milton friedman etc

 

He also didnt celebrate Marx, but he pointed things out that marx already talked about, which are a correct assesment of the current economic situation. 

 

 

I don't listen to those who call capitalists parasites.  I have seen that movie before, it is a call to mass murder.

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I don't listen to those who call capitalists parasites.  I have seen that movie before, it is a call to mass murder.

Within reason, yes I agree with you. Where I differ is when you get these scumbag types who have more than enough for themselves to be comfortable already, yet continue to worship money and take advantage of others for more. Theyre definitely parasites

[thepupil]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yup...the biggest grift in America right now is the guys getting paid 6 figures with amazing benefits and complete job security to drink craft beers and teach/hit on young adults 4 hours a day, 3 days a week. 

 

I completely disagree. I regard the academic career path as brutal. It's low pay, unstable (until it becomes gloriously so for the minority who make tenure track), political, and just generally shitty.

 

To become one of those people getting paid an okay amount takes 7,10,15,20 years of PhD, adjunct, assistant, etc. I don't envy people in academia at all and do not regard it to be a grift. if anything, people chasing the dream of becoming a professor are the ones being grifted....The people I know who are trying to / have gotten there work harder for far less pay than people in corporate / tech / finance / medicine.

 

do you know anyone in their 20's / 30's that's tried/is trying to become a professor? 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2024 by thepupil

[cubsfan]

23 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

I completely disagree. I regard the academic career path as brutal. It's low pay, unstable (until it becomes gloriously so for the minority who make tenure track), political, and just generally shitty.

 

To become one of those people getting paid an okay amount takes 7,10,15,20 years of PhD, adjunct, assistant, etc. I don't envy people in academia at all and do not regard it to be a grift. if anything, people chasing the dream of becoming a professor are the ones being grifted....The people I know who are trying to / have gotten there work harder for far less pay than people in corporate / tech / finance / medicine.

 

do you know anyone in their 20's / 30's that's tried/is trying to become a professor? 

 

 

 

It's a complete grift. The teaching assistants do most of the work. 

 

The hard sciences are the best of the bunch. The soft sciences & humanities are the worst.

Once you have tenure, all you have to do is keep your politics straight - and you'r e golden.

 

Many universities are a cesspool of bloated staffs that drive tuition way beyond inflation.

The administration personal growth are out of control - and those are easy and useless degrees.

Edited March 22, 2024 by cubsfan