Political Posts

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/24/why-chinas-economy-wont-be-fixed

 

Why does the government keep making mistakes? One reason is that short-term growth is no longer the priority of the Chinese Communist Party (ccp). The signs are that Mr Xi believes China must prepare for sustained economic and, potentially, military conflict with America. Today, therefore, he emphasises China’s pursuit of national greatness, security and resilience. He is willing to make material sacrifices to achieve those goals, and to the extent he wants growth, it must be “high quality”.

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-online-platforms-scrap-lucky-draw-features-amid-gambling-crackdown-2023-08-25/#:~:text=Analysts say online content platforms,wider clampdown on online gambling.

 

"We expect the anti-gambling crackdown... to eliminate 20% to 70% of live streaming revenue, depending on each platform's exposure," Charlie Chai, an analyst at 86Research, said. "It should take two quarters for the impact to be fully absorbed a third in Q2, and the remaining two-thirds in Q3." In their earnings report, Tencent said it was adjusting its live streaming business to become more "music-centric" while Huya said it was working to make the platform atmosphere "healthier". Cloud Music said it was reinforcing its "internal controls mechanism... and adopting stricter monitoring over irregular user activities".

While Chinese authorities say they have ended a years-long, wide-ranging regulatory crackdown on its technology sector, scrutiny has continued as Beijing looks to rectify social and business activities in line with socialist norms.

[John Hjorth]

On 8/25/2023 at 12:50 AM, Spekulatius said:

It’s a hypothesis at this point that the plane was shot down, but the video shown shows a vapor trail concstent with a missile. Also it appears like the plain had lost one wing which is a pretty rare occurance. So, I think the hypothesis has decent support.

 

We probably will never know for sure until much later after Putin is gone. I think it is in Putins interest that this remains shrouded in mystery.

 

A tweet by Anton Gerashchenko supporting the view of @Spekulatius

 

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Mr Pringles demise reminds of me of this quote:

 

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

[Castanza]

15 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Mr Pringles demise reminds of me of this quote:

 

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Perfect quote to sum it up

[cwericb]

 

But....

 

We all assume Putin was behind the death of Prigozhion. But what if Putin was in fact NOT responsible the crash?  What if the crash was caused by a small bomb planted by the Ukrainians?

 

Prigozhion has repeatedly and publically called out the incompetence of the Russian Army.  Would not the Ukrainians rather contend with an incompetent Russian Army than the more sucessful Wagner Group?

 

Eliminating Prigozhion and his top people helps to derisk the likelihood that his private army will lead another advance on the Ukraine and leaves the incompetent Russian Army leadership in charge of the war.

 

As a side benefit, blaming it on Putin just reinforces his bad reputation throughout the rest of the world.

 

Food for thought?

[Xerxes]

Very much doubt Ukrainian had anything to do with this. 
 

it was either the Kremlin or elements of GRU or MoD (without Kremlin’ consent). And the latter is unlikely as well. 
 

Wagner was largely de-fanged post its aborted march on Moscow. People forget that it was MoD that provides all or most of its heavy equipment. Without which Wagner is just a lightly armed militia. 

[Xerxes]

The other possibility is that Bane was responsible for the Wagner’ leadership team demise. 
 

 

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/24/chinas-economy-is-in-desperate-need-of-rescue

 

If Mr Posen is right, China is stuck. If spending is weak because households and entrepreneurs fear the party’s intrusive policymaking, their spirits will not revive until Mr Xi commits to self-restraint—a commitment that he cannot credibly make. Even if the setbacks of the past two years have chastened him, he cannot prove he will not change his mind again. The party lacks the power to limit its own power.

...

If China’s government acts with urgency, it has the tools it requires in order to engineer a recovery in the latter part of this year. But will it use them? Mr Xi lacks the credibility or focus of previous leaders. He now prizes greatness over growth, security over efficiency and resilience over comfort. He wants to fortify the economy, not gratify consumers. These competing priorities may prevent China’s rulers from doing whatever it takes to revive demand. Mr Xi no longer wants growth at all costs. And so the country has not had it. At growing cost. 

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/22/what-chinas-economic-troubles-mean-for-the-world

 

Commodity exporters are especially exposed to China’s slowdown. The country guzzles almost a fifth of the world’s oil, half of its refined copper, nickel and zinc, and more than three-fifths of its iron ore. China’s property woes will mean that it requires less of such supplies. That will be a knock for countries such as Zambia, where exports of copper and other metals to China amount to 20% of gdp, and Australia, a big supplier of coal and iron (see chart 1). On August 22nd bhp, an Australian firm and the world’s biggest miner, reported its lowest annual profit in three years, and warned that China’s stimulus efforts were not producing changes on the ground.

...

Weak spots in the West include Germany (see chart 2). Faltering demand from China is one reason why the country’s economy has stagnated of late. And some Western firms are exposed through their reliance on the country for revenues. In 2021 the 200 biggest multinationals in America, Europe and Japan made 13% of their sales in China, earning $700bn. Tesla is more exposed still, making around a fifth of its sales in China; Qualcomm, a chipmaker, makes a staggering two-thirds.

...

Provided the slowdown does not escalate into full-blown crisis, the pain will remain concentrated. Sales to China account for only 4-8% of business for all listed firms in America, Europe and Japan. Exports from America, Britain, France and Spain come to 1-2% of their respective outputs. Even in Germany, with an export share of 4%, it would take China collapsing to generate a sizeable hit to its economy.

...

But what if things go badly wrong in China? Under a worst-case scenario, a property meltdown could reverberate through the world’s financial markets. A study by the Bank of England in 2018 found that a “hard landing” in China, where economic growth fell from 7% to -1%, would cause global asset prices to fall and rich-world currencies to rise as investors rushed in the direction of safer assets. Overall, British gdp would drop by 1.2%. Although most Western financial institutions have relatively little exposure to China, there are exceptions, such as hsbc and Standard Chartered, two British banks.

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-27/china-cuts-tax-on-stock-trading-to-boost-market-confidence?srnd=premium-europe

 

China lowered the stamp duty on stock trades for the first time since 2008, marking a major attempt to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest equity market.

...

The reduction has the potential to trigger a knee-jerk rally in China’s $9.6 trillion equity market, which is highly sensitive to policy shifts that impact market liquidity. The cut is a boon for Chinese brokerages as well as quantitative hedge funds that use rapid-fire trading strategies.

...

They have also guided mutual fund managers to step up purchases of their own equity funds, cut handling fees on stock transactions and encouraged companies to step up share buybacks. China adjusted the stamp duty on stock trading several times in the past. In May 2007, it raised the rate to 0.3% to cool a rally that was drawing more than 300,000 new investors a day. In April 2008, the government slashed the levy to 0.1% to support the market after a plunge, spurring a bull run the following year.

[John Hjorth]

And now this from Ramsan Kadyrov . Let this inflated moonface just try. Such a train wreck of a human being. His final day will come, too.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Putin, Prighozin, Sechin, Kadyrov, Peskov, Maria Zakharova.

 

If you ever need to find some villains ideas for another James Bond movie, you have got it all there.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/13/putins-evil-inner-circle-nikolai-patrushev-to-ramzan-kadyrov/

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putin, Prighozin, Sechin, Kadyrov, Peskov, Maria Zakharova.

 

If you ever need to find some villains ideas for another James Bond movie, you have got it all there.

https://nypost.com/2022/08/13/putins-evil-inner-circle-nikolai-patrushev-to-ramzan-kadyrov/

 

It's mystery to me, how nobody told the uber-oligarch Vladimir Potanin to dye his eyes browes too, or is this - [also] - about a wig?

[Castanza]

Can see the missile trail plain as day 

 

Translation of the videographer in the comments. 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Castanza

[tnp20]

12 hours ago, UK said:

If China’s government acts with urgency, it has the tools it requires in order to engineer a recovery in the latter part of this year. But will it use them? Mr Xi lacks the credibility or focus of previous leaders. He now prizes greatness over growth, security over efficiency and resilience over comfort. He wants to fortify the economy, not gratify consumers. These competing priorities may prevent China’s rulers from doing whatever it takes to revive demand. Mr Xi no longer wants growth at all costs. And so the country has not had it. At growing cost.

 

Good piece. Xi has scored too many "own goals". Without further economic prosperity CCP credibility and longevity is at stake. Xi is doing a lot of things that are threatening economic prosperity - some things can be easily reversed but other things are irrevocably damaged for long term.

 

I have seen enough economic papers to say all options are on the table....

 

(i) Ideal growth story --> Innovative quality growth , but this will initially be very slow and comes in fits and starts , and for this they badly need confidence in the private sector which Xi has punished badly. It remains to be seen if confidence in the entrepreneur class and private sector comes back and if it comes back, it remains to be seen if they can innovate and produce quality growth. 

 

(ii) Rebalance story --> Their share of export versus domestic consumption is unbalanced. They want to kick start the consumption confidence and recovery but again past Xi policies have resulted in consumers opting for having a huge savings cushion against another one of Xi's stupid policies like zero covid. They dont want cash or consumption coupon handouts as Xi does not believe in welfare state. They would like to see more (i) Services  consumption which tends to employ a lot of people which would help address the unemployment problem and (ii) Spending on the new innovation story so it further drives innovation and quality growth - areas such as EVs, greentech, biotech, AI. They have been handing out lot of tax breaks for EV vehicles and greentech.

 

(iii) Panic Story ---> Growth really slows down and risk of recession/depression, they will ramp up unproductive infrastructure spend because it works and is fast acting but at risk of growing debt whilst producing unproductive assets. There is still some productive infrastructure they can build but is limited ...such as High speed rail lines across the country and urbanizing and developing tier 3 cities, but definitely less housing construction.

 

I firmly believe if Lee Kuan Yew was alive today, he would use "iron in the brain" metaphor today for Xi ..as that would trump "iron in the blood". The dude is dumb and dogmatic making for policy disaster. Ofcourse he is also responsible for the geopolitics mess that resulted in alientating neighbours and also alienating foreigners. If China wants to win at innovation, he needs the worlds best to come to China. This is never going to happen unless USA/West becomes toxic to live in.

 

China's economy will make progress despite Xi. Its stocks will do well despite Xi due to domestic investors (new play toy now housing is no more, and now retirement money is going into it) and CHina's VISA and Master card are a long play that will outlast Xi (who  has another 10 years). But as with all autocrats he may complelely ruin the party for everyone and this will hit global stocks and growth, not just China.

Edited August 27, 2023 by tnp20

[Spekulatius]

Looks like the counteroffensive finally gets some momentum. It looks like the first defense line has been cracked around Robotyne  and the 2nd line is being probed. If the breach in the first line is widened the  Russia may have to retreat on a much wider scale or their troops remaining in the first line could get surrounded.

 

Also Tokmak (major logistics hub and is fortresses)  is now less than 20 km from the front line which means it get under intense artillery not just HIMARS fire. Things could get ugly for the Russian fairly quickly.

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-evergrande-shares-plunge-more-013647508.html

 

Cheers!

[no_free_lunch]

13 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

And now this from Ramsan Kadyrov . Let this inflated moonface just try. Such a train wreck of a human being. His final day will come, too.

 

 

Kadyrov and the whole RF can't even finish the war in Ukraine!  They would not last 1 day against the nato block. 

 

The only concerns I have is how China and ultimately India play into this.  China is rumored to be providing ever larger shipments of various drones and given their manufacturing capacity this needs to be followed. 

[changegonnacome]

On 8/26/2023 at 12:55 PM, Spekulatius said:

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

 

Remind me of this from an Adam Curtis documentary I recommend folks check out - Hypernormalisation.....modern Russia is a bewildering mess of propaganda, fake news & psyops........all designed to ensure that people there are never really sure what is exactly happening & by whom...even the 'opposition'...it's designed to lead to civic paralysis which in and of itself is a form of power.......and based on the evidence of the last couple of decades its worked quite beautifully....as measured by civil disobedience that has ever seriously threatened the Putin regime in that time

 

 

 

[Castanza]

*GRAPHIC* 

 

War is Hell and trench warfare is probably about as close to the 9th circle as you can get. It’s “fun” to discuss strategy here, but when it comes to war I think it’s important to keep perspective on the reality of it. Any one of us could have been easily born Russian and thrown to the wolves in a similar situation. It’s been interesting to discuss this war with my brother who is adopted from Russia. He is a combat veteran and served in Afghanistan during the mid 2000s. He said it’s weird to think that likely most of the other boys that he was with in the orphanage are likely in the Russian military now; probably being thrown to the meat grinder and how he could have easily been on the other end of the military spectrum. 
 

Perspective matters when discussing these topics. 
 

Above is a recent video of Ukrainian SEALs (Western trained) clearing a trench line against Russian soldier thrown to the meat grinder. Under-equipped, under-prepared, and likely no desire to be there. I thought this Reddit users comment on the video was pertinent

 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Castanza

[backtothebeach]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 

 

36 minutes ago, Castanza said:

War is Hell and trench warfare is probably about as close to the 9th circle as you can get. It’s “fun” to discuss strategy here, but when it comes to war I think it’s important to keep perspective on the reality of it. Any one of us could have been easily born Russian

This.
Frankly, I find the guy in the video that Spek posted distasteful. From the thumbnail to selling his war merch in the middle of the video.

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

 

This.
Frankly, I find the guy in the video that Spek posted distasteful. From the thumbnail to selling his war merch in the middle of the video.

It a fair statement. it is also true that every one of the youtubers following the war has something to sell or hunting for eyeballs. That being said, i found his commentary in this particular case useful.  These guys do have their ears on the ground and follow the telegram channels (both Russian and Ukraine) so you get the info there sooner and with more detail than with MSM.

 

I think there is a good chance that we are going to see some action on the frontline around Robotyne and perhaps the Russian frontline is about to crack there.

[Spekulatius]

If you don't like above, here is another one from Michael Clark (which i follow closely). it is clear that something is up , because the Russian are throwing their elite forces on the frontline near Robotyne (76 Paratrooper)

 

[backtothebeach]

Michael Clark is definitely more pleasant to listen to.

 

Look up Robotyne, a village of 5 streets, on Google maps. Kind of puts into perspective what they are talking about. How many men died on both sides over this tiny patch? Depressing.

(Hint: From the middle of the image, look west-south-west, there is a small red outline).

Edited August 28, 2023 by backtothebeach