Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

43 minutes ago, kimoser22 said:

What odds could you have gotten in a Deadpool for Prizgoven(sp?) before today? In case people haven’t seen he was listed among the dead in a private plane crash in Russia today.

 

This is news from TASS, redistributed by other MSM. I want to see it from Reuters, before I will apply any weight to this. So much *BS* about this person posted everywhere.

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, Luca said:

My base case is that economic problems will sort themselves over time (3-5 years), GDP growth accelerates as well by then, the US and West realizes that they cant deal without china in economic questions, get anything done regarding the climate crisis without them etc, need their markets and personell, factories etc. 

 

China will continue growing their country, todays completely disregarded valuations will get back to pre october 2022, the good strong businesses will continue to flourish and we will outperform the market by miles due to multiple expansion+ faster growing economy.

 

I also think birth rates will reaccelerate, maybe not above 2.1 but comparable to western standards. 

Why do think birth rates will accelerate? Making this happen is not small feat and the youth unemployment suggests it will get worse near term.

 

Anyways, here is a good podcast on that matter:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-21/the-deep-problems-underlying-china-s-economy?srnd=oddlots#xj4y7vzkg

 

The follow mentions 4 d's that impact the Chinese economy - demand, debt, demographics and decoupling.

Another interesting quote - The Chinese party thinks they are in charge of capital allocation for the Chinese economy.

 

So, no stimy checks, we build more infrastructure because they serve as monuments for the CCP as well.

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Spekulatius

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, kimoser22 said:

What odds could you have gotten in a Deadpool for Prizgoven(sp?) before today? In case people haven’t seen he was listed among the dead in a private plane crash in Russia today.

 

Also claims that Russian Air Defense shot the plane down. That seems like an extraordinary thing to do when the FSB could have just planted a bomb in the cargo hold. 

 

Bad week already for Russia.  Lost Robotyne putting HIMARS even closer to cutting off the Crimean landbridge, lost its first top of the line S-400 SAM system to a drone in Crimea, lost a Backfire bomber to drone attack forcing an entire air wing to move deeper into Russia, lost a helicopter full of fighter plane parts due to defection or navigation failure, has suffered drone attacks on Moscow for six straight days, and  is sinking six ferries alongside the Kerch bridge to protect it from attack.

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Why do think birth rates will accelerate? Making this happen is not small feat and the youth unemployment suggests it will get worse near term.

Because they are in the midst of economic problems and changing tides, They were at 1.7 in 2016. I doubt it stays this static and we have not seen significant government incentives in that regard yet. 

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

Anyways, here is a good podcast on that matter:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-21/the-deep-problems-underlying-china-s-economy?srnd=oddlots#xj4y7vzkg

 

The follow mentions 4 d's that impact the Chinese economy - demand, debt, demographics and decoupling.

 

And they are already tackling many of these sectors, as we have seen with recent crackdowns. 

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

 

Another interesting quote - The Chinese party thinks they are in charge of capital allocation for the Chinese economy.

As if some outside spectator can make such a statement! Absolutely not how reality looks like, and I doubt very much that the CCP thinks they solely are in charge of capital allocation. 

 

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

So, no stimy checks, we build more infrastructure because they serve as monuments for the CCP as well.

We will see if that statement turns out to be true. 

[Luke]

And it can be seen by this thread how hated and disregarded china is. Its a stinking fish in the corner that everybody spits on. If id look somewhere for businesses to buy shares in id look in china! 

 

How much riskier is it to buy these 25x earnings+ flyers in the US that dont grow much compared to decently managed cheap bargains in china? Id very much prefer the latter. Stock based compensation considered alphabet trades at close to 40x earnings, 2.5% yield. 

 

Who buys this and expect meaningful performance over 5-10 years. The terminal value multiple has to be so high to get to some kind of market outperformance. And then what about the china risk? The taiwan risk? 

 

If you seriously think china will shake things up with their military, owning any larger US big market cap would be out of the picture too, the whole car supply chain, the growth in china priced in. 

 

It doesnt make any sense!

[Luke]

And for the Berkshire Shareholders too, 177b of value in the apple stake. More than a fifth of revenues coming from china, including taiwan even more. 1/3 of the growth coming from china in 2021 for apple revenue. China risk? 

 

What about paying 30x earnings for LVMH? If china risk is real id sell that too if i were honest with myself. the CCP already cracked down on some influencers that promote luxury status races.

 

The world is heavily connected, decoupling is not possible and makes some good headlines and click volume. 

[Luke]

From everything i read about china the last years, the hours over hours i consumed, its unthinkable to me that china will be russia 2.0 or that they will attack taiwan and ruin that beautiful island. I doubt anybody wants to destroy entire generations with another war BUT you never know and you certainly cant hedge with US largecaps! 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Luca

[HubbadaPow]

Russia offers to swap frozen assets with the west

https://www.ft.com/content/a5598c9d-99f5-45c3-98eb-2f797f2cc85b
 

the comments on this article are almost unanimously against this proposal. 

[cubsfan]

28 minutes ago, Luca said:

From everything i read about china the last years, the hours over hours i consumed, its unthinkable to me that china will be russia 2.0 or that they will attack taiwan and ruin that beautiful island. I doubt anybody wants to destroy entire generations with another war BUT you never know and you certainly cant hedge with US largecaps! 

You have your own opinion, and that’s ok.

 

To say it’s unthinkable that China will invade Taiwan is pretty darn extreme, because their actions over the last year or so could not make any clearer.

 

China is clearly not a good neighbor- and once Taiwan, then how is South Korea going to feel surrounded by China, N Korea and Russia??

 

There is huge political risk with Xi in charge and a extremely senile & weak US President that is completely compromised by China.

[Luke]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You have your own opinion, and that’s ok.

 

To say it’s unthinkable that China will invade Taiwan is pretty darn extreme, because their actions over the last year or so could not make any clearer.

 

China is clearly not a good neighbor- and once Taiwan, then how is South Korea going to feel surrounded by China, N Korea and Russia??

 

There is huge political risk with Xi in charge and a extremely senile & weak US President that is completely compromised by China.

These Tension with Taiwan have been here since the KMT dropped over to Taiwan so 70 years of this, previously also with some bombin. Munger said it himself, the Invasion is off the table for a long time. 

 

If you have a good stomach and can look forward over the next few years i think there is a lot of money to be made

Edited August 23, 2023 by Luca

[Spekulatius]

Well, WSJ and DW has it too. Private plan crash that was very conveniently documented with a camera. Could not have happened to a nicer guy. Looks like an accident, but so fake that everyone knows it’s not.

 

[hillfronter83]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

From everything i read about china the last years, the hours over hours i consumed, its unthinkable to me that china will be russia 2.0 or that they will attack taiwan and ruin that beautiful island. I doubt anybody wants to destroy entire generations with another war BUT you never know and you certainly cant hedge with US largecaps! 

"Too young, too simple. Sometime naive!" 

[aws]

Took down the Wagner #2 as well, the guy with all the nazi tattoos. Putin finally did some actual denazification.

[james22]

Xi Jinping failed to show up for a planned speech. Did anything extraordinary happen yesterday that might have unavoidably pulled Xi away from his duties? Maybe?

 

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2023/08/23/what-happened-to-xi-jinping-at-the-brics-summit-n573100

[zippy1]

1 hour ago, hillfronter83 said:

"Too young, too simple. Sometime naive!" 

The famous quote of Jiang Zemin!

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-24/china-local-government-debt-has-investors-worried-about-bond-defaults?srnd=premium-europe

 

But these fixes were not Beijing’s first choice. It set in motion a plan before the pandemic to inject state-owned assets into the companies and permit them to enter new business areas to generate enough cash to service debt on their own. This was known as the “market-oriented transformation” model.

...

For example, Guizhou province is home to some of the country’s most financially strained LGFVs, yet owns the country’s second-largest company by market value: liquor producer Kweichow Moutai Co., worth about 2.23 trillion yuan. The company was pressured into buying a stake in a local road-building LGFV when it ran into financial trouble in 2020. Moutai shareholders, which include investment funds and retail investors, were not happy, and have resisted further cash injections.

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-23/china-real-estate-market-crisis-is-another-mess-for-xi-jinping?srnd=premium-europe

 

Three years ago, China cracked down on a booming real estate sector to reduce risk and make homes more affordable—part of President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” drive.

 

Beijing may have gone too far, it now seems. Country Garden Holdings Co., a developer that was once a pillar of the industry, is on the verge of default, suggesting no company is too big to fail. There are signs the situation is spiraling, too. More developers are on the brink, home prices are collapsing in smaller cities, and fears of contagion have spread to the nation’s $60 trillion financial system. When shadow bank Zhongrong International Trust Co. missed payments on dozens of high-yield investment products this month, investors protested outside its headquarters in the Chinese capital.

 

“Property booms and busts are typically extreme but especially in China’s case,” says George Magnus, author of Red Flags: Why Xi’s China Is in Jeopardy. “The sector is so big in relation to the economy and so significant in terms of household savings and confidence.”

...

While the property woes have spread to China’s giant commercial banks—the amount of soured real estate loans at the 10 biggest lenders will likely soar to $120 billion next year assuming the rate of nonperforming loans triples from 2022, according to Bloomberg Intelligence—the bigger concern is falling home prices. Official statistics show a steady drip of monthly declines of less than 1%; reports on the ground from agents show drops of 15% or more in some areas over the last two years. Even though it helps Beijing’s affordability push, the dropping home values have shattered consumer confidence. After years of price gains, Chinese consumers had come to see real estate as a can’t-miss investment, prompting some to buy multiple apartments to profit from the rally. For those who borrowed to do so, paying their expensive mortgages will make less and less sense the lower property values go.

...

“With luck, and robust policymaking, China might transition to a less real-estate-dependent economy in the coming decade,” says Red Flags author Magnus. “But it could also be a very messy process and entail financial instability and economic and social disruption.”

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by UK

[Luke]

Wagner official telegram account confirmed his death too, russian local governments as well. Very very scary. 

[Luke]

[Luke]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/24/five-brics-nations-announce-admission-of-six-new-countries-to-bloc

 

 

Brics to admit six new countries to bloc including Iran and Saudi Arabia

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Luca

[Blugolds]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Wagner official telegram account confirmed his death too, russian local governments as well. Very very scary. 

 

Why is it scary? This was the most predictable thing ever. If you want to take a shot at dethroning the big man you better make it count, cause if you miss...you're done. 

 

Putin tried to kill Navalney, others...any challenger better succeed or they're dead. This is a basic page from any Dictator playbook, sends a message and makes an example. 

 

I knew Prigozhion was a walking dead man the second I saw him on video and heard what he said, if there was any doubt, that was gone when he started heading to Moscow. 

[Luke]

And focus on the hypocrisy and onesided view of the media again, in Russia you get shot down by an Airplane. In the US you will get the Snowden and Assange treatment. But russia gets the news flow and the big headlines while assanges treatment did get critiques but its different. 

 

"He faces a real risk of serious human rights violations including possible detention conditions that would amount to torture and other ill-treatment (such as prolonged solitary confinement). The fact that he was the target of a negative public campaign by US officials at the highest levels undermines his right to be presumed innocent and puts him at risk of an unfair trial."

Edited August 24, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

But despite differences, Brics leaders expressed a common belief that the international system was dominated by western states and institutions and was not serving the interests of developing nations.

 

Nearly two dozen countries had formally applied to join the club from across the “global south”, a broad term referring to non-western nations.

About 50 other heads of state and government attended the summit, underscoring what Brics leaders say is the attractiveness of its message.

 

“This membership expansion is historic,” said the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, whose country is the most powerful in the group of non-western states that represents a quarter of the world’s economy. “The expansion is also a new starting point for Brics cooperation. It will bring new vigour to the Brics cooperation mechanism and further strengthen the force for world peace and development.”

 

 

The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, said with the admission of six new members, the bloc would represent 46% of the world’s population and an even greater share of its economic output.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

Its only a matter of time that BRICS turns the world upside down. Cheap energy, cheap labour. They have the potential to turn their economies into strong powerhouses. Africa has nothing to lose too and chinese etc are perfectly willing to work with corrupt or non corrupt leaders and built out their own economic system. Meanwhile the west produces many products and ressources there and resells at high mark up, if things get mixed up here...

 

And tell me about decoupling. Seems like the west gets decoupled by many things too!

Edited August 24, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

33 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Why is it scary? This was the most predictable thing ever. If you want to take a shot at dethroning the big man you better make it count, cause if you miss...you're done. 

 

Putin tried to kill Navalney, others...any challenger better succeed or they're dead. This is a basic page from any Dictator playbook, sends a message and makes an example. 

 

I knew Prigozhion was a walking dead man the second I saw him on video and heard what he said, if there was any doubt, that was gone when he started heading to Moscow. 

The thought of flying around with an airplane and then getting shot down is scary  But yeah, could have predicted that.