Political Posts

[Ulti]

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/decoupling-is-just-going-to-happen

 

excellent article on the world wide decoupling going on with China by both

governments and multinational corporations

[formthirteen]

John McCain knew Putin's end game in 2015:

Weak leaders and nations provoke Putin and Russia.

Edited May 24, 2023 by formthirteen

[Spekulatius]

Looks like there was a special military operation near Belgorod, this time in Russia itself. I think it was basically a Psy-op, somewhat deflecting from the Bakhmut loss.

 

The fact that people were hauling ass from Belgorod with their cars 65km away  after news about the incursion tells you all, you need to know about how the Russian living there think.

It seems to take just a couple of armored vehicles and one or two tanks to get 20km deep into Russia. It also looks like most of them made it back into Ukraine. From a military POV, this is a nothingburger, the action is going to be somewhere else.

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

John McCain knew Putin's end game in 2015:

Weak leaders and nations provoke Putin and Russia.

He got just about everything right 7 years before it happened.

[Viking]

Great discussion on all topics related to Ukraine. Gets to the core of many issues.

 

 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

John McCain knew Putin's end game in 2015:

Weak leaders and nations provoke Putin and Russia.

Dam, that’s a prediction.

[Spekulatius]

Another prediction - one of the two Prigozhin Wagner) or Putin will not be alive any more a year from now. My guess is that Prighozhin will have an accident, but it could go the other way around.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Not much of a prediction when the guy is telling you about NovoRussiya. Not much of a prediction when the ultranationalists running Tel Aviv what are their deepest desire are vis a vis settlement expansion. Oops … did I mention Israel ? We cannot be talking about Israel. everything they do is 100% correct and we must be kissing their ass all the time. If we do not that means we like Hitler. 

 

I said my piece on this pages ago. If Putin wasn’t there that desire to restore the empire would have come differently. That phase is always there and need to work itself through. Even Portugal went through that post-empire “who am I” phase. 

[John Hjorth]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Another prediction - one of the two Prigozhin Wagner) or Putin will not be alive any more a year from now. My guess is that Prighozhin will have an accident, but it could go the other way around.

 

I would certainly not take the other side on such a bet with you. Which reminds me : "Why not put a contract out in the open on the head of such a person? - One page contract, simple terms, Buffett style? A drop in the sea compared to the US military budget.

[Spekulatius]

15 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I would certainly not take the other side on such a bet with you. Which reminds me : "Why not put a contract out in the open on the head of such a person? - One page contract, simple terms, Buffett style? A drop in the sea compared to the US military budget.

Prediction are hard, but Prigozhin has become very outspoken to state it mildly and people in Putin's circle have fallen out of windows, slipped and broke their neck or became suddenly ill for far less.

 

Everyone outlives their usefulness eventually.

[cubsfan]

21 hours ago, formthirteen said:

John McCain knew Putin's end game in 2015:

Weak leaders and nations provoke Putin and Russia.

Nice clip. McCain certainly understood Putin, unlike Obama.

 

Putin’s philosophy: People who are weak, deserve to be exploited 

[Spekulatius]

4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Nice clip. McCain certainly understood Putin, unlike Obama.

 

Putin’s philosophy: People who are weak, deserve to be exploited 

The weak always get exploited, it doesn't take a Putin to do it.

 

On Obama - I ask myself if Biden as vice president in 2014/15 agreed with Obama on Ukraine at that time. My guess only historians will find out after everyone involved is dead and the documents get declassified.

 

Obama certainly was mistaken to accept Putin's arbitrarily drawn red lines and not to deal with the aggression right there.

This situation was never rectified until it was almost too late.

[Luke]

Li Lu wrote this in 2019 November about China btw, i just read through his website: 

 

家为这一阶段的经济政策，尤其是货币政策留下了丰富的参照经验。只要政策制定者能够
认清目前自身所处的阶段，做出适当的调整，就有可能充分释放黄金发展期巨大的经济增
长潜力。中国未来前途依然可期

 

Experts have left a wealth of reference experience for economic policy at this stage, especially monetary policy. As long as policymakers can recognize the current stage of the economy and make appropriate adjustments, it is possible to fully release the huge economic growth during the golden development period.

 

China's future is still promising

 

Sad he doesnt publish more!

 

 

[Luke]

Also from his talk in 2015, good reminder: 

 

I believe China is at interim stage between Civilization 2.0 and Civilization 3.0. Let’s call it Civilization 2.5. China has come a long way but still has a long road ahead. Therefore, I think there is a high probability that China will continue on the main track of Civilization 3.0, as the cost of deviation is very high. If you have a good understanding of China’s culture, people and history, you will agree that China will forge forward. This is particularly the case now that you have a better understanding of the essence of modern civilization. There is almost no chance of China leaving the common market, and the probability of China changing its market rules is also very small. Thus, it is highly probable that, in the next 2 to 3 decades, China will remain in the global market system, and adhere to free market principles, in addition to promoting science & technology development. There is a high probability that China’s economy will be on the main track of Civilization 3.0. Besides, we know the course of Civilization 3.0 has little to do with political and cultural factors, and a lot to do with science & technology, as well as the free market. This is its true essence. This is also the biggest misunderstanding about China many investors have, particularly those from the West. If China is to stay the course of Civilization 3.0, and adhere to the free market economy + modern science & technology, her returns on main classes of assets (stocks, cash etc.) will track the trends of the mature market economies in the past 300 years. Her economy will continue to grow cumulatively accompanied by inflation. Stocks will continue to outperform other classes of assets. The philosophy of value investing is the right way and main path in China as it is in the US. Value investing will provide sustained, stable, safer and more reliable returns for her investors. This is why I believe value investing can be realized in China.

[formthirteen]

45 minutes ago, Luca said:

If China is to stay the course of Civilization 3.0, and adhere to the free market economy + modern science & technology, her returns on main classes of assets (stocks, cash etc.) will track the trends of the mature market economies in the past 300 years. Her economy will continue to grow cumulatively accompanied by inflation. Stocks will continue to outperform other classes of assets.

 

That's a big IF and the world has changed: https://www.afrugaldoctor.com/home/market-zero

 

Quote

Have any stock markets gone to zero before?

 

The answer is yes, although under extraordinary circumstances. Globally, only a few markets have suffered total market loss. The largest and most well known markets that went to zero are Russia in 1917 and China in 1949.

 

Quote

The stock exchange finally stopped trading for good in 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party gained total control of mainland China. The Republic of China ceased to exist (on the mainland) and all existing assets were seized by the new communist government. Pre-war investors suffered total loss.

 

What's the value of Russian ADRs right now?

Edited May 26, 2023 by formthirteen

[Luke]

Just now, formthirteen said:

 

That's a big if and the world has changed: https://www.afrugaldoctor.com/home/market-zero

 

 

What's the value of Russian ADRs right now?

China in 1949 is worlds apart from China in 2023. If Chinas economy goes to 0 that means 1/5 of the population gone including the second biggest economy on the planet...

[Luke]

What has changed? Nothin that wasnt there 4 years ago. Same party, same rules. Xi still there. China has not left the market system, just look at some of the last earnings calls. Tencent still doing very fine, demand is strong.

[crs223]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

If Chinas economy goes to 0 that means

 

The US thinks China is not just a threat, but a growing threat.

 

if there were any evidence China is in decline, the US would not be waging economic/tech war.

 

US actions send a clear message:  “China is getting more powerful and the US is scared.”

[Luke]

2 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

The US thinks China is not just a threat, but a growing threat.

 

if there were any evidence China is in decline, the US would not be waging economic/tech war.

 

US actions send a clear message:  “China is getting more powerful and the US is scared.”

+1 well said!

[Xerxes]

Three musketeers, talking calmly to each other 
 

 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

The US thinks China is not just a threat, but a growing threat.

 

if there were any evidence China is in decline, the US would not be waging economic/tech war.

 

US actions send a clear message:  “China is getting more powerful and the US is scared.”

Being scared is better than being ignorant of a real threat.

 

My thesis is that China has been in war with the west since at least  Xi Jinping came to power, maybe even before that. The Chinese leaders before Xi Jinping may have been more careful or covert about their intentions  but Xi Jinping is quite open about his intentions, you just have listen about what he says or read what he writes.

I think the west just didn’t realize this until a few years ago. Maybe Trump actually was it who started to push back, even though not in smart way, Imo. In any case Biden/Trump, Democrat or Republican it doesn’t matter, in terms of China they are actually more or less on the same page - they have realized that China is an adversary and they need to do something about it.

 

So now we are in phase, that we are in some sort of a war with China, not openly with military yet , but covertly. Call it a Cold War, because it mimics the war against the USSR since 1950 (Korea was the moment that everyone in the US realized that a Cold War era has started). This was 5 years after George Orwell coined the term I believe in 1945. he also called it peace which is no peace, which is rather fitting.  We are now in 1950 in Cold War I terms.

 

The Cold War is predominately not fought with military power, it’s more of an economic and technological race. That’s why semis are key here. The Chinese knew this a few years ago and now the US/ West knows it too. Now the west tries to kneecap the Chinese semi land grab as they should and the Chinese have no choice but do develop their own tech.

There will be other battlefields in other tech areas as well as those with economic dimensions (rare earth metals anyone?). China’s belt and road is one way China tries to get control of trade and US does this via bilateral trade agreements. We will see which one works better, but I think belt and road has been a bust so far.

 

In any case, the important thing is that the US and increasingly Europe as well has realized that we are in a new kind of Cold War with China and it’s a long term game, not some thing that is over in a few years - we are talking likely many decades here. It’s important to realize this because you can’t win a war unless you realize you actually in a war and you need to fight. We just got to that point recently.

 

The winner will be the side who has is going to be most economically and technologically advanced and a military that can project lower around the globe.

 

My guess is that the next 25-35 years won’t look like 1990-2025 but more like 1950-1985. Now most predictions of the future are wrong, but the good news is that you can update them as you go along.
 

Edited May 27, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

41 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Three musketeers, talking calmly to each other 
 

 

No hugs and kisses to the cheeks though.

[crs223]

28 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Being scared is better than being ignorant of a real threat.

 

I agree.

 

China is strong and US is right to be scared/reactive/proactive.  China is not going to slunk away — despite poor demographics, human atrocities, IP theft, and other common criticism.

[Luke]

 

Guy Spier talking about China in March 2023:

 

1.Goal of the CCP is to stay in power, in order to stay in power they have to bring prosperity to the people of china. Never have been people been lifted out of poverty in the history and its due to the credit of the CCP. 

2. We see millions of people traveling out of china and coming back to china, its not as unfree as some might think. Delivered on prosperity to a middle class. 

3. They have shown an ability to self correct which has happened before

He owns Prosus, Alibaba and BYD. 

@Dinar might be interesting to you too

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Being scared is better than being ignorant of a real threat.

 

My thesis is that China has been in war with the west since at least  Xi Jinping came to power, maybe even before that. The Chinese leaders before Xi Jinping may have been more careful or covert about their intentions  but Xi Jinping is quite open about his intentions, you just have listen about what he says or read what he writes.

I think the west just didn’t realize this until a few years ago. Maybe Trump actually was it who started to push back, even though not in smart way, Imo. In any case Biden/Trump, Democrat or Republican it doesn’t matter, in terms of China they are actually more or less on the same page - they have realized that China is an adversary and they need to do something about it.

 

So now we are in phase, that we are in some sort of a war with China, not openly with military yet , but covertly. Call it a Cold War, because it mimics the war against the USSR since 1950 (Korea was the moment that everyone in the US realized that a Cold War era has started). This was 5 years after George Orwell coined the term I believe in 1945. he also called it peace which is no peace, which is rather fitting.  We are now in 1950 in Cold War I terms.

 

The Cold War is predominately not fought with military power, it’s more of an economic and technological race. That’s why semis are key here. The Chinese knew this a few years ago and now the US/ West knows it too. Now the west tries to kneecap the Chinese semi land grab as they should and the Chinese have no choice but do develop their own tech.

There will be other battlefields in other tech areas as well as those with economic dimensions (rare earth metals anyone?). China’s belt and road is one way China tries to get control of trade and US does this via bilateral trade agreements. We will see which one works better, but I think belt and road has been a bust so far.

 

In any case, the important thing is that the US and increasingly Europe as well has realized that we are in a new kind of Cold War with China and it’s a long term game, not some thing that is over in a few years - we are talking likely many decades here. It’s important to realize this because you can’t win a war unless you realize you actually in a war and you need to fight. We just got to that point recently.

 

The winner will be the side who has is going to be most economically and technologically advanced and a military that can project lower around the globe.

 

My guess is that the next 25-35 years won’t look like 1990-2025 but more like 1950-1985. Now most predictions of the future are wrong, but the good news is that you can update them as you go along.
 

Agree 100%