Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

The balloon crisis: I bet this because whoever was supposed to be running these balloons are on vacation or miss coordinated due to the long spring festival break. Someone was on break. 

The ballon is just an incident, not a crisis.
I don’t think it’s an accident though. If it were an accident, China would have notified the US via intelligence channels and we would likely never heard about it. I think this balloon is literally a trial balloon that China sent to find out what they can get away with and what intelligence they can gather with them.

 

Ballons have a very small radar signature and are actually hard to detect (small radar signature). They can be used to listen to radio chatter or record longer term movement at a certain location better than satellites.

 

China wants to find out what they can do with them, if they get detected and if so what the US does once they are detected.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

5 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/01/29/ukraine-should-and-properly-supported-can-seize-crimea-argues-ben-hodges

As pro Ukraine as I am, I could care less about Crimea. It has a history of being Russian.  An offensive on it is more a tool to divert Russian defenses.

 

I think it would be reasonable to surrender Crimea in exchange for a return of the other areas and peace.  

Edited February 4, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-aids-russias-war-in-ukraine-trade-data-shows-11675466360?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[Xerxes]

I found this interesting. Not the content of it, which I have not read in details, and is a different discussion altogether, perhaps not suited for this forum where extreme biases dominates, including my very own without-proof-Poles-did-it theory. But the fact that the author behind this is someone I never heard about, yet as I was browsing his name on line, I actually found that I have his bombshell book (unread) in my own very library.

 

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline (substack.com)

 

The plot thickens !

 

The Price of Power: Kissinger in the Nixon White House: Hersh, Seymour M.: 9780671447601: Books - Amazon.ca

 

Tucked in neatly in between the Dead Hand (read) and the Iron Kingdom (unread).

I got to get Price of Power ahead of the line !!

 

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

Looks like the balloon was indeed a spy / surveillance balloon. The antennas arrays alone indicate so, since a weather balloon would likely have other sensors like pressure equipment, maybe infrared cameras, temperature sensors.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-balloon-carried-antennas-other-equipment-to-gather-intelligence-u-s-says-11675953033?mod=business_trending_now_article_pos1

[Xerxes]

Awesome interview with John Bolton. The “Hawk” nails it. It is part of the PBS Frontline documentary called “Putin and the Presidents” which I think non-Americans cannot watch without VPN. I couldn’t even find it. 
 

In any case you can watch the interviews. 

 

  

[changegonnacome]

13 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Awesome interview with John Bolton. The “Hawk” nails it. It is part of the PBS Frontline documentary called “Putin and the Presidents” which I think non-Americans cannot watch without VPN. I couldn’t even find it. 
 

In any case you can watch the interviews. 

 

  

 

Look forward to watching this - Bolton is a hawk for sure.....on a go forward basis I tend to be skeptical of his bias towards action......as a critic of past strategy it give him's more latitude than most.

 

Curious for those following the Russian side of things more closely than me.........has Putin, with ever increasing escalation and provision of weapons from NATO states, managed to stir some genuine nationalistic fervor at home? Which leads me to the below (and in some ways its a prerequisite).

 

In terms of the toolkit of escalation available to Putin/Russia, outside of the military options, and in light of the recent move to reduce Russian oil production by 500,000 barrels a day......do people see the possibility or the fiscal space from a Russian economic perspective for them, as part of the war effort and to hurt the global economy, to reduce Russian oil production by something much more dramatic?

 

Seems to me of the escalatory options left available to Russia with a genuine global impact (outside of strategic nukes)....is its ability to drive oil prices up to uncomfortable levels for the global economy. That is if their fiscal, oligarch & domestic population could support it for a few months. Interested in the various thoughts on this - withholding natural gas didn't break Europe that was the 'cheap' energy play for Putin......oil is much more lucrative and the real Russian cash cow.......does he fully weaponize this next?

[Spekulatius]

The main reason that Putin is reducing crude production is to reduce the sky high differential to other regular crudes. Increasing the overall crude prices is a secondary effect, but also welcome of course.

Ironically, the high differential have been benefiting Russias economic allies China and India the most, as they have been benefitting from being the only buyers left for Rusdian oil and were able to buy Russian at very low prices.

 

So China and India will get hurt more than the rest of the world because less Russian crude supply will mean lower differential in addition to higher prices overall.

I do think Putin can do this for a while , but there are problems with shutting in production , as field can be also impossible  to start up again. I don’t think China and India will like this move either, so similar to the NG embargo, he plays for short term benefit but damages his position longer term.

[Xerxes]

Jeff Curie talks also about the Russian sea-bound crude embargo that went up in Dec as well as the one refined products that went up in Feb. 

 

Unrelated to Russia, Jeff has been talking the same line for the past year that energy prices today have the same setup they had in 2006-07 during the Fed hiking cycle (that pushed USD all time high) which in turn kept oil prices in check (notwithstanding its bullish setup) but when the rate plateau and ultimately dropped in 2007-08 or so it uncorked one the biggest rally in crude. 
 

The difference of course is that 2008 we ended up with a banking crisis. If 2023 will indeed have a soft landing (as oppose to hard) the rally may just sustain.
 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

@Spekulatius thanks for that - the difficulty re-starting oil fields is the big deterrent I wasn't aware of.........it just struck me that Russia remains a global superpower in two key respects only  - Energy & its Nuclear arsenal.........if things get existential for the regime......leaning into energy first before you literally go nuclear is the playbook.

 

@Xerxes will have a listen, thanks

Edited February 12, 2023 by changegonnacome

[no_free_lunch]

I just wonder change, if any of this is really existential for the regime.  They dont even CLAIM it to be as such. The RU argument is more, a failure here could ultimately lead to an existential risk.  Rhyming a bit with US position on Korea back in the 50s. 

 

On your question around sentiment in Russia,  obviously I don't know but they seem to have a hard time recruiting. Conscription,  prisoner soldiers, emigration, these aren't things you see when there is patriotic support. I think the people supporting it don't have to actually fight. 

Edited February 12, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[james22]

Perhaps the scariest takeaway from the Ukraine War is that it’s just beginning.

 

https://zeihan.com/the-ukraine-war-just-getting-started/

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

I just wonder change, if any of this is really existential for the regime.  They dont even CLAIM it to be as such. The RU argument is more, a failure here could ultimately lead to an existential risk.  Rhyming a bit with US position on Korea back in the 50s. 

 

Yeah agree on the existential piece.....I'm just considering various levers they could pull.........pushing harder on the energy piece as a strategic tool to try to tip 'the west' back into an inflationary nightmare and/or recession......such that political support waivers is an interesting card Putin has left to play.......Europe got away with a warm winter/LNG purchases worked & US got to draw down SPR.......attention now turns to winter late-2023/24......and what tricks Vlad has up his sleeves & what the climate might serve up next winter

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yeah agree on the existential piece.....I'm just considering various levers they could pull.........pushing harder on the energy piece as a strategic tool to try to tip 'the west' back into an inflationary nightmare and/or recession......such that political support waivers is an interesting card Putin has left to play.......Europe got away with a warm winter/LNG purchases worked & US got to draw down SPR.......attention now turns to winter late-2023/24......and what tricks Vlad has up his sleeves & what the climate might serve up next winter

What makes you think that there is political support for Ukraine in France, Italy, UK, US, et all?  Have the people been polled?  Just because Biden was on Ukraine's payroll does not meant US public supports the war and the 50-100bn that was given to Ukraine.  Do you really think that a typical family in the US would willingly give up a $1000 for Ukraine, let alone several thousand more that Ukraine is asking for?  Similarly, I doubt that the public in Europe west of Poland/Czech Republic actually supports Ukraine despite what those leaders say/do.  

Does the west actually have the ability to supply ammunition and the weapons that Ukraine needs/requests?  When the entire Western Europe has 1000 battle ready tanks... When Ukraine fires more shells in a month than the US produces in a year?  

 

Yes, the war clearly is very unpopular in Russia, but will that stop Putin & co?   

 

In the long run, Russia has the advantage, and that's why once its nose was bloodied, the smart thing was to try to get a peace agreement or an armistice, instead we hear warmongers calling for Crimea returned to Kiev.   The smart player knows when to hold and when to fold.  

 

I disagree that the war or Ukraine are existential to Russia.  I do not agree with Zeihan's point of view.      Where are the new Panzer divisions going to come from?  Germany?  France?  Give me a break!   And the threat is far likelier to come from the East - China or South - Iran/Pakistan/ than from Germany or Poland.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Dinar

[Xerxes]

@changegonnacome

 

You are welcome. always a pleasure. 
 

On Bolton, he maybe a hawk. But he knows what he is talking, notwithstanding being clever in some of his answers. 
 

ref: when asked about US and how it maintains its sphere of influence militarily. He gave the Canada example (that it is Canada telling us what to do) as oppose to his own mess in Iraq. (He was U.S. Ambassador in U.N. then and was banging the war drums pretty hard). 
 

He is hawk with an agenda but knows his stuff. I can respect that. 

[lnofeisone]

13 hours ago, Xerxes said:

He is hawk with an agenda but knows his stuff. I can respect that. 

This is 100% spot on. When he was at State, Bolton had no problems arguing with anyone but he absolutely knows his stuff. Probably didn't help that he was so argumentative all the time.

[Spekulatius]

On 2/10/2023 at 10:22 PM, Xerxes said:

Awesome interview with John Bolton. The “Hawk” nails it. It is part of the PBS Frontline documentary called “Putin and the Presidents” which I think non-Americans cannot watch without VPN. I couldn’t even find it. 
 

In any case you can watch the interviews. 

 

  

This documentary is pretty good, not just the part with Bolton.

[Spekulatius]

Looks like another escalation from Putin - meddling in Moldova potentially. Of course Putin will deny this - just like he denied the “Green men” in Crimea 2014 were Russian mercenaries :

 

[rogermunibond]

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf

[Spekulatius]

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

 

 

[formthirteen]

25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

 

Weird, central planning, command economy, and communist economy does not work in practice? It's like capitalism actually works. Very weird, someone better tell the Russians (and Chinese, and Europeans, and some senators).

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

 

 

 

Unbelievable - the EU got lucky for sure with the winter........but I'll give credit where its also due......the EU as a political economy has shown a level of solidarity, unity & coordination on the energy crisis that is impressive.....people have poo poo'd the lack of a Federal Europe......but on this matter, COVID and after much torture the post-GFC period......the EU political institutions have turned out to be way more robust than I would have imagined. Its impressive.

[changegonnacome]

 

A little bit through this - but good review of where we are.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Weird, central planning, command economy, and communist economy does not work in practice? It's like capitalism actually works. Very weird, someone better tell the Russians (and Chinese, and Europeans, and some senators).

I think there was a bit of Karma too. 

[hillfronter83]

This guy is one of the most influential banker in China.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-renaissance-says-it-is-unable-contact-chairman-bao-fan-2023-02-17/