Political Posts

[drzola]

Comments by Norman Levine on twitter today fyi folks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Norman Levine

 

@levinepmc

·

4m

 

I have to agree with Jason Kenney. What started off as legitimate protest by truckers over a mask mandate that singled them out got taken over by a bunch of ultra-radical wackos with a whole different agenda. I disagree with Trudeau for invoking the EA but the convoy was hijacked

[Gamecock-YT]

Protests going to lead to a spread of the virus only for all the protestors to go home for a relatively early Lunar New Year in January and spread it amongst the elderly. 

[Xerxes]

Hell in Bakhmut

 

 

[Xerxes]

Very awkward

 

 

[Spekulatius]

 

 

[crs223]

FYI there are some weird cuts in the video.  it may have been edited to cause the exchange to look different than it actually was.

 

For comparison, watch this clip (a hilarious sketch for those of us old enough to know GWB) starting at 2:20:

 

 

 

[UK]

 

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-to-bolster-defenses-after-airfield-strikes-11670415197

 

Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and an influential voice among Russian hard-liners, also visited troops in Donbas recently, he wrote Tuesday on Telegram. He said that what he found there was a poorly motivated Russian army, especially compared with Ukrainian forces. “The troops are fighting ‘by inertia,’ not having the slightest idea of the ultimate strategic goals of the current military campaign,” he wrote, adding that fighters from Luhansk and Donetsk were better motivated. Efforts to break Ukrainian will, he added, weren’t working. “‘Ukraine’ will NOT freeze in winter, will NOT rebel and will NOT fight worse. Vice versa. Its soldiers, who have already believed in their strength as a result of the autumn victories…will only fight angrier and more stubbornly,” he wrote. “And they will be met only by apathetic performance of duty, behind which many fighters and commanders have long been [asking] the unresolved question: ‘What are we doing here?’”

[Xerxes]

I didn't know Imperial War Museam made documentary.

Here is a good one misuse of T-72 tanks by the Russians.

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

I don't think the nice (but distracted) CNN lady here understands what the good Colonel is explaining about the dummy warheads on the cruise missiles.

 

 

[Xerxes]

I have not read. But i think it deserve printing and reading back to back. I am planning to do so myself. Looking fast, there are some passage in relation to the post occupation plans, had it come to pass. 

 

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

 

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russians-march-on-foot-to-advance-yards-in-bloody-eastern-ukraine-battle-11670406883?mod=hp_trending_now_article_pos3

 

“We shoot at them, they send more. It doesn’t end,” said Lt. Matviyenko, 26, a yellow-and-blue Ukrainian flag patched onto his olive-green uniform. “There’s so many of them.” The battle for Bakhmut has become a bloodbath for both sides as Russia steps up its attempts to take what used to be a quaint, tree-lined city. Ukrainian defense officials said Moscow is losing around 50 soldiers a day to maintain a slow, bruising advance to reach the city’s easternmost gates. If the Russians break through to take control of Bakhmut, it would open a path to the political and economic centers of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the Ukrainian-held portions of the Donbas area, once one of the country’s main industrial regions. Moscow tried to seize the area in a pincer movement in the early days of the war and into the summer. After a lightning offensive, Ukraine regained much of the lost ground. Now, as Russia slowly burns through its artillery stockpiles, defense analysts said, its troops are advancing once again but on tank and foot. This time it is so President Vladimir Putin can tout a rare victory to the Russian people after a succession of withdrawals, most recently in Kherson, giving it outsize importance to the Kremlin, analysts said. “The costs associated with six months of brutal, grinding, and attrition-based combat around Bakhmut far outweigh any operational advantage that the Russians can obtain from taking Bakhmut,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. defense think tank based in Washington, D.C.
Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the Ukrainian military’s Eastern Group of Forces, said 50-70 Russians were dying a day in the battle.

 

Russia has already redeployed troops from the southern region around Kherson to the front in Bakhmut, while Ukraine is similarly trying to get more forces to the area, a task that some analysts said could have been complicated by a recent missile strike on the railway network in Kryvyi Rih in the center of the country. Earlier this week new Ukrainian troops were arriving. A staggered column of T-72 tanks with reactive armor drove into the city. Units of the 58th Brigade, which has been in the city for weeks, were rotating out, and fresher units were coming in from the 71st Brigade.  As the tanks drove in, some residents waved. Others kept their heads down. Of the several thousand residents still left in the city, many said their nerves had been shot by constant shelling, shooting and missile fire that has pummeled the city’s center. Bakhmut’s central covered market has been reduced to a jumble of aluminum. Streets are littered with broken glass, telephone and electric cable dangle and window frames lie randomly on street corners. Dogs with collars sniffed at piles of trash that lay in piles of small shopping bags.

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by UK

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-says-western-allies-shouldnt-fear-russia-falling-apart-11670505120?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Some of these allies worry that such an outcome could profoundly destabilize the nuclear-armed Russian state, potentially leading to its fragmentation and wide-scale unrest, with unpredictable consequences for the rest of the world. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that Washington’s focus is on supporting Ukraine to take back territory seized by Russia since launching its invasion on Feb. 24. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who expressed confidence in continuing U.S. backing for Kyiv, said fears about preserving Russia reminded him of the so-called “Chicken Kiev” speech of 1991. Then, President George H.W. Bush in a speech to Ukrainian lawmakers warned against “suicidal nationalism,” urging Ukrainians to preserve the Soviet Union and abandon their quest for independence from Moscow. “I’m calling on the world not to be afraid of Russia falling apart. If the wheels of history begin to turn, no human will change it,” Mr. Kuleba said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal in Kyiv. “Instead of thinking of how to help Russia survive and become a normal member of the international community, it’s time to accept the fact that this Russia cannot be a normal member of the international community,” he said. “I don’t think the world will fall apart if Russia falls apart. But it will be the people of Russia who will make their country fall apart, as it happened with the Russian Empire” in 1917.

 

“We are first and foremost focused on striking targets in the occupied territories of Ukraine, on liberating our own territory. But of course the notion that Russia can do whatever it can technically afford doing in Ukraine while Ukraine doesn’t have the same right is conceptually, morally and militarily wrong,” Mr. Kuleba said. “Ukraine should not be endlessly victimized. We are a country that is fighting on all fronts for its survival, for its territorial integrity,” he added. “The most important thing is that no one treats Ukraine’s behavior—as long as it complies with international laws of warfare—from the perspective that Russia can do everything it wants while Ukraine has to respect certain red lines in defending itself.” Ukraine has pledged to the U.S. not to use American-supplied weapons to strike Russian soil. That agreement, Mr. Kuleba said, doesn’t apply to Crimea, which is internationally recognized as Ukrainian territory. The U.S. has also refrained from supplying Ukraine with the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of some 200 miles, and has modified the Himars artillery systems that it has provided to Ukraine so that they couldn’t fire ATACMS missiles into Russia should Ukraine obtain them from another source.

 

Mr. Kuleba said Russia’s behavior suggests Moscow still seeks a military victory, including the conquest of all of Ukraine. “Putin and his closest entourage are hoping for a miracle that will happen and turn the tables,” he said, reiterating Ukraine’s call on allies to provide it with more weapons, including Western-made tanks, jet fighters and ATACMS missiles. In the past, Mr. Kuleba said, the U.S. and allies lifted longstanding taboos and supplied Ukraine with the weapons that they refused to provide in the past, such as 155 mm howitzers or Himars, when the tide of the fighting turned against Kyiv. Mr. Kuleba said that at a North Atlantic Treaty Organization foreign-ministers meeting in Bucharest late last month he urged his counterparts to “completely change the optics: Instead of waiting for a crisis in order for them to make a decision, they have to make decisions now in order to avoid a crisis.” Asked about the response to the proposal, Mr. Kuleba said the NATO governments need time to reflect.

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by UK

[Blugolds]

I dont know how many people watch/listen to Lex, but he is of Ukranian/Russian heritage, moved to states around 13, father is professor, speaks Russian/English fluently. He recently went to Ukraine to interview there but hasnt published those interviews yet, he has interviewing Putin himself as a goal. Has some pretty good guests, all very interesting and does a good job asking questions and discussing a variety of topics.

 

I thought this episode was interesting, getting the take on the situation of an ex-CIA agent. Viewpoint on Ukraine starts at 13:50. 

 

 

 

Agree with him or not, his take is interesting and I like hearing alternative viewpoints. 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Blugolds11

[Parsad]

Russia will win this thing if the U.S. and allies concede to dumbass deals like this:

 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/dea-agent-who-helped-put-viktor-bout-behind-bars-slams-brittney-griner-swap-we-couldnt-even-get-two-people-for-the-worlds-most-notorious-weapons-trafficker-220232108.html

 

Why they did this deal I'll never understand!  Cheers!

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

Russia will win this thing if the U.S. and allies concede to dumbass deals like this:

 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/dea-agent-who-helped-put-viktor-bout-behind-bars-slams-brittney-griner-swap-we-couldnt-even-get-two-people-for-the-worlds-most-notorious-weapons-trafficker-220232108.html

 

Why they did this deal I'll never understand!  Cheers!

You are 100% right, this is insanely stupid!  Apparently Trump turned down the offer for Whelan before.

[no_free_lunch]

18 hours ago, Dinar said:

You are 100% right, this is insanely stupid!  Apparently Trump turned down the offer for Whelan before.

On this one thing we all agree.  Obviously this was done for the most simple minded political perspective, I think and hope it has backfired.

 

Xerxes, I am curious about that PDF you linked but am afraid to click on the link!   If possible could you attach the pdf or let us know the summary?

 

Bluegolds, I did watch the first 10 minutes or so of your link but I find it hard to take this analyst seriously.  I am not sure when it was filmed but he said point blank that all of south Ukraine (to Odessa) would be taken by Russia by fall.  He says this would be in part due to Europe folding on winter / energy supplies.  Quite the underperformance on that prediction.  Why believe anything else he has to say when he is so confidently wrong?

Edited December 10, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[no_free_lunch]

 

The above is a Kazakhstan journalist, from what I understand.  Shows the potential (hopefully does not happen) for a second front in Kazakhstan.   It all ties into Ukraine and this is one reprecussion.  The bully does not have the same power now that they are stood up to.

 

Russian Ambassador to Kazakhstan:  Nazis / nationalists live in Kazakhstan.  if necessary will conduct a special military operation.

 

Kazakhstan Journalist: God forbid you decide to come to us for an easy victory.  You will not have an easy victory.  The entire Kazakh steppe will be strewn with the corpses of your conscripts.

[Spekulatius]

On 12/9/2022 at 4:52 AM, Blugolds11 said:

I dont know how many people watch/listen to Lex, but he is of Ukranian/Russian heritage, moved to states around 13, father is professor, speaks Russian/English fluently. He recently went to Ukraine to interview there but hasnt published those interviews yet, he has interviewing Putin himself as a goal. Has some pretty good guests, all very interesting and does a good job asking questions and discussing a variety of topics.

 

I thought this episode was interesting, getting the take on the situation of an ex-CIA agent. Viewpoint on Ukraine starts at 13:50. 

 

 

 

Agree with him or not, his take is interesting and I like hearing alternative viewpoints. 

It is important to keep in mind that this interview was done in August 2022 when Russia had advanced as far as they ever came, just having captured Severodoneskt. Since then, the Russians have lost a huge area around Kyiv as well as Kherson. Not a whole lot winning as far as I can tell here. So it seems like Lex Friedman has been wrong on this matter, plain and simple.

[UK]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-drone-warfare-russia-732jsshpx

 

“We’re still using the same escalatory calculations but the fear of escalation has changed since the beginning,” a US defence source told The Times. “It’s different now. This is because the calculus of war has changed as a result of the suffering and brutality the Ukrainians are being subjected to by the Russians.” Washington is now less concerned that new long-range strikes inside Russia could lead to a dramatic escalation. Moscow’s revenge attacks have to date all involved conventional missile strikes against civilian targets. Previously, the Pentagon was warier of Ukraine attacking Russia because it feared the Kremlin would retaliate either with tactical nuclear weapons or by targeting neighbouring Nato nations. However, Washington does not want to be seen publicly giving the green light to Kyiv attacking Russian soil. Its position on Ukraine’s attacks inside Russia was defined this week by Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, who said: “We have neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia.” However, a US defence source said: “We’re not saying to Kyiv, ‘Don’t strike the Russians [in Russia or Crimea]’. We can’t tell them what to do. It’s up to them how they use their weapons. But when they use the weapons we have supplied, the only thing we insist on is that the Ukrainian military conform to the international laws of war and to the Geneva conventions.

 

The drone Ukraine wants more than any other is the American MQ-1C Gray Eagle, which has a range of 250 miles, is armed with four Hellfire missiles or eight Stinger missiles, can remain airborne for more than 24 hours and is equipped with sophisticated reconnaissance systems. Eric Edelman, who was a top policy specialist at the Pentagon and worked with the state department as ambassador to Finland and Turkey, believes the delay in supplying such weapon systems is no longer sustainable. “The administration is excessively self-deterred by the prospect of an alleged escalatory spiral which is largely illusory,” he said. “The best thing for all concerned is for the Ukrainians to be able to win as quickly as possible. Hence it makes sense to give them ATACMS and Gray Eagles and help them to put together a package of main battle tanks as well.”

The prospect of waves of Ukrainian drones heading towards Russian military bases raised concerns among the Russian military. “We are not in a position to effectively counter these drones,” an unnamed Russian soldier told the Volya Telegram channel. “There will be massive raids on air bases inside Russia, as well as on other military and infrastructure targets. In theory, they can even get to Moscow.” The British defence ministry said the Kremlin was likely to consider the drone attacks to be among Russia’s “most strategically significant failures” since the start of the war. “Psychologically, I think it strikes a blow,” a western official said. The attacks, together with setbacks on the battlefield, look certain to further undermine the Russian public’s support for the invasion. Only one in four Russians want their army to continue fighting in Ukraine, according to leaked Kremlin polls. State television has even discussed the prospect of Russia losing the war, warning of “catastrophic” consequences for the country if that happens. In public, Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to insist that their “special military operation” will be a success. Yet in private, the president and his henchmen are thought to have begun to make plans for an escape. “Putin’s entourage has not ruled out that he will lose the war, be stripped of power, and have to urgently evacuate somewhere,” Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter who is now a political analyst, wrote on Telegram. Citing an unnamed insider, Gallyamov said the Kremlin was considering Argentina or Venezuela as safe havens. Igor Sechin, a senior Putin ally, is thought to be overseeing the project, which is codenamed Noah’s Ark.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/putin-says-russia-may-add-nuclear-first-strike-to-strategy?srnd=davos

 

Vladimir Putin said Russia may consider formally adding the possibility of a preventive nuclear first strike to disarm an opponent to its military doctrine, just days after warning that the risk of atomic war is rising. “We’re thinking about this,” the Russian president told reporters after a summit in Kyrgyzstan. “If we are talking about a disarming strike, perhaps we should think about using the approaches of our American partners,” he said, citing what he called US strategies to use high-accuracy missiles for a preventive strike.

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by UK

[Blugolds]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It is important to keep in mind that this interview was done in August 2022 when Russia had advanced as far as they ever came, just having captured Severodoneskt. Since then, the Russians have lost a huge area around Kyiv as well as Kherson. Not a whole lot winning as far as I can tell here. So it seems like Lex Friedman has been wrong on this matter, plain and simple.

 

Did you watch the entire discussion regarding the war? Lex just interviews, he had no position on the matter, he steel mans positions of his guests, or asks them to, but remains pretty neutral for the most part. He lets the guest take whatever position they want. Bustamante was the one taking a position. I agree, time has passed since the interview and thats a fair point, but I shared it because it was interesting to hear another point of view regarding the intelligence that Putin received, is receiving, as well as our own intelligence in the US and the rest of the world. His guest as an ex-CIA op has a good feel for that region of the world and how geopolitics work, gives another perspective that has been different than pretty much everything else I have heard anywhere. Im not saying that he is right, just that it is an interesting perspective that is different, and thats always valuable when contemplating anything. He also offered explanation for why Putin thought it would be a cake walk. Bustamante also was pretty adamant that it would be over by fall due to reliance on Russian gas for NATO countries heating, and obviously here we are approaching Christmas, so he hasn’t called everything correctly, but I think he makes some decent points overall regarding intelligence and geopolitical strategy and priorities. 

[Spekulatius]

@Blugolds11 The interview is almost 4 h long, so it didn’t watch it entirely. Yes, I mixed up in the interviewer with the Bustamante who seemed to have wrongly assessment the situation (claimed Russia was winning) based on what happened since the interview was given.

[Xerxes]

On 12/10/2022 at 11:05 AM, no_free_lunch said:

 

Xerxes, I am curious about that PDF you linked but am afraid to click on the link!   If possible could you attach the pdf or let us know the summary?

 

 

It is from Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studie

 

Nothing with virus or anything like that. Attached anyways. I think we shoud all read it. It is a heavy read, I dont expect myself to be able to catch all of the nusances as it is heavy in details. It is very detailed analysis of the war, thus far.

 

Here is the Executive Summary (page 1 of 3)

 

Executive Summary The full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has provided an invaluable opportunity to assess the capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) and the implications of a range of capabilities for modern warfare. Many publicly made judgements on these issues have lacked supporting data or insight into Ukrainian operational planning and decisionmaking. To ensure that those drawing lessons from the conflict do so from a solid foundation, this report seeks to outline key lessons, based on the operational data accumulated by the Ukrainian General Staff, from the fighting between February and July 2022. As the underlying source material for much of this report cannot yet be made public, this should be understood as testimony rather than as an academic study. Given the requirements for operational security, it is necessarily incomplete. Russia planned to invade Ukraine over a 10-day period and thereafter occupy the country to enable annexation by August 2022. The Russian plan presupposed that speed, and the use of deception to keep Ukrainian forces away from Kyiv, could enable the rapid seizure of the capital. The Russian deception plan largely succeeded, and the Russians achieved a 12:1 force ratio advantage north of Kyiv. The very operational security that enabled the successful deception, however, also led Russian forces to be unprepared at the tactical level to execute the plan effectively. The Russian plan’s greatest deficiency was the lack of reversionary courses of action. As a result, when speed failed to produce the desired results, Russian forces found their positions steadily degraded as Ukraine mobilised. Despite these setbacks, Russia refocused on Donbas and, since Ukraine had largely expended its ammunition supply, proved successful in subsequent operations, slowed by the determination – rather than the capabilities – of Ukrainian troops. From April, the West became Ukraine’s strategic depth, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) only robbed Russia of the initiative once long-range fires brought Russian logistics under threat. The tactical competence of the Russian military proved significantly inferior compared with the expectations of many observers based within and outside Ukraine and Russia. Nevertheless, Russian weapons systems proved largely effective, and those units with a higher level of experience demonstrated that the AFRF have considerable military potential, even if deficiencies in training and the context of how they were employed meant that the Russian military failed to meet that potential. Factoring in the idiosyncrasies of the Russian campaign, there are five key areas that should be monitored to judge whether the Russian military is making progress in resolving its structural and cultural deficiencies. These areas should be used to inform assessments of Russian combat power in the future.

 

 

359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

Edited December 12, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

On 12/9/2022 at 4:47 AM, UK said:

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who expressed confidence in continuing U.S. backing for Kyiv, said fears about preserving Russia reminded him of the so-called “Chicken Kiev” speech of 1991. Then, President George H.W. Bush in a speech to Ukrainian lawmakers warned against “suicidal nationalism,” urging Ukrainians to preserve the Soviet Union and abandon their quest for independence from Moscow. “I’m calling on the world not to be afraid of Russia falling apart. If the wheels of history begin to turn, no human will change it,” Mr. Kuleba said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal in Kyiv. “Instead of thinking of how to help Russia survive and become a normal member of the international community, it’s time to accept the fact that this Russia cannot be a normal member of the international community,” he said. “I don’t think the world will fall apart if Russia falls apart. But it will be the people of Russia who will make their country fall apart, as it happened with the Russian Empire” in 1917.

 

 

 

I was not aware that George Bush pushed back on the breakup

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

Jeffrey Sachs is not going to get invited to Bloomberg after the comment he made about the pipelines but doesnt mean his views get expunged.

 

It is very sad that at the end of the interview, he needs to re-affirm his opposition to the brutality of the war, because these days the narrative is that you push to stop the flow the arms to Ukraine as a bid to force people to talk to each other that means you like Putin. 

 

So if you are a neo-conservative, or part of the "war party" or a NATO-maximalist you better not watch this !

 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Xerxes