Political Posts

[no_free_lunch]

Just one persons opinion but this commentary is airing on the main Russian news site of RT.  This is why despite strategic bombing against them, Ukraine will keep fighting.  It's not a war, it's the start of a genocide. 

Quote

Krasovsky interjected and said: "For them to rape Ukrainian grannies. Gawd, those grannies would spend their burial savings to get raped by Russian soldiers."

..

"Over there every piece of s*** little house, there are masses of awful, monstrous little houses. They s*** all over the Carpathian Mountains. [The] Carpathian Mountains are disgusting…Shove them right into those huts and burn them up," Krasovsky said.

..

Lukyanenko replied: "Yes, because I wouldn't want to live in the same country with many of the people who will remain there. So, we will shoot them."

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/rt-presenter-says-just-drown-children-promotes-genocide-ukraine/

Edited October 24, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Luke]

Wow, China is a bloodbath right now!

[RetroRanger]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-s-party-congress/Transcript-President-Xi-Jinping-s-report-to-China-s-2022-party-congress

 

Funny that china even said many positive things

 

"We will make appropriate reductions to the negative list for foreign investment, protect the rights and interests of foreign investors in accordance with the law, and foster a world-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized. We will promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative."

 

"We will improve the functions of the capital market and increase the proportion of direct financing. We will take stronger action against monopolies and unfair competition, break local protectionism and administrative monopolies, and conduct law-based regulation and guidance to promote the healthy development of capital.2

 

[Spekulatius]

i think the stock market really disliked the Neo Maoist vibes from this Congress. Then there was the selection of leadership for each Politburo:

 

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3196994/hong-kong-stock-index-slumps-below-16000-mark-new-13-year-low-chinas-leadership-reshuffle-leaves-no?module=live&pgtype=homepage

 

They keep on saying the right things from time to time (also stronger action against monopolies may not be that great for Alibaba and the likes )to calm things down, but the signaling toward a new Maoist era isn’t really bullish for equity investors by any stretch of imagination.

 

The simple message from the CCP Congress is that expect more of the same of what you have been seeing lately as long as Xi is around (at least).

[formthirteen]

44 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

They keep on saying the right things from time to time (also stronger action against monopolies may not be that great for Alibaba and the likes )to calm things down, but the signaling toward a new Maoist era isn’t really bullish for equity investors by any stretch of imagination.

 

The simple message from the CCP Congress is that expect more of the same of what you have been seeing lately as long as Xi is around (at least).

 

China is uninvestible, but it's still possible to speculate in the Chinese stock market. If Xi passes the Marshmallow test, the stock market should do well. If not he will (try to) invade Taiwan and continue to do stupid things (from foreign stock speculators' point of view).

 

Nobody talks about the Chinese invasion of the Philippines (Spratly). They have roughly the same playbook as Russia, first the green men arrive, then the tourists:

 

However, it seems China is not the only one invading, LOL:

[hillfronter83]

4 hours ago, RetroRanger said:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-s-party-congress/Transcript-President-Xi-Jinping-s-report-to-China-s-2022-party-congress

 

Funny that china even said many positive things

 

"We will make appropriate reductions to the negative list for foreign investment, protect the rights and interests of foreign investors in accordance with the law, and foster a world-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized. We will promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative."

 

"We will improve the functions of the capital market and increase the proportion of direct financing. We will take stronger action against monopolies and unfair competition, break local protectionism and administrative monopolies, and conduct law-based regulation and guidance to promote the healthy development of capital.2

 

It's not about what he says. Everybody supportive of economic reform were pushed out. There will be fundamental changes in the country's direction going forward and nobody can stop him now.

 

 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, hillfronter83 said:

It's not about what he says. Everybody supportive of economic reform were pushed out. There will be fundamental changes in the country's direction going forward and nobody can stop him now.

 

 

Very mixed signals from Xi, supporting businesses and common prosperity/socialist reforms, lots of FUD

[Spekulatius]

The next step is China sanctioning  the US in retaliation to the US semiconductor sanctions enacted right before the CCP Congress.

[Xerxes]

Get over it people. 

Folks were blowing up each other infrastructure since the dawn of whatever.
 

I get the emotional baggage specially with this conflict given who is the “enemy”, but there is no need to act like it is first time you see this (I.e. infrastructure getting destroyed affecting real people). That is what happens in war, last I checked. And I do check very often. 
 

Maybe this is first war that actually interests you (one does wonder why). If that is so, welcome to the real world.
 

Reminds me of murder of George Floyd. No one cared how many black men died before or since. But Floyd’ murder was the one we chose to hang our hat on. Perhaps something to do with being in lockdown in Covid and needing to get it out. Who knows 
 
Analyze this conflict for related news, what it could become and share resources if you want help the victims. Keep the OMG reactions, “I cannot believe it” …. for some other forum.

 

PS: sorry for my usual rambling. Not trying to offend anyone. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

It‘s a war. Russians do what they always have done. Give Ukraine weapons to eliminate the threat - defense system, but also long range weapons to take out the launch sites wherever they are (Crimea).

 

Get back to the Iran regime responsible for the drones and Republican guard as well with targeted sanctions as well. I didn’t really know that the Republican guard is not just elite army (and terror organization ) but sort of works like commercial and industrial organization woven deep into the Iranian economy. Sounds a bit like Putins Oligarch cleptocracy/oligarchy system.

 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

^^If the US can spend $400B to forgive student loans, they could easily help bury the Russians

by flooding Ukraine with weapons. The annual budget for Russian's armed forces is around $65B.

The US budget is almost $800B. Together with the Europeans - the US doesn't need to risk 

lives - is $100B in weapons enough to stop an obsolete military??   Should be.

 

The whole world is best served by destroying the Russian military.

 

Putin will still have his nukes, but we'll still have ours.

Edited October 25, 2022 by cubsfan

[Xerxes]

@Spekulatius

 

I would let the technocrats at US State Department run their cost-benefit model to gauge the NPV of attacking Russia proper. 
 

That aside, by all means, flood Ukraine with defensive weapons. 
 

If Kremlin has done the attack on the  infrastructure much earlier in the war (as soon as they realized the fantasy of coup was not to be), West wouldn’t be crying foul play. LoL.
 

ironically if Putin looses power, it won’t be because of taking Russia on an imperial adventure, but rather because he didn’t hit them hard enough on the right targets  (conventionally).  
 

 

[Pelagic]

This is an interesting thread on the use of Iranian made drones in Ukraine. It gets into the weeds on the cost of the drones vs. the cost of anti air systems currently available to Ukraine. At $20-40k a piece the drones, even when intercepted, are using up missile stockpiles that are each 10x or more their cost. Ukrainians are very capable and on the issue of defending civilian infrastructure have almost total support from the West so it's likely just a matter of time until their 80% interception rate increases to closer to 100%. It seems they're working on their own version of the Shahed-136 as well.

 

 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^If the US can spend $400B to forgive student loans, they could easily help bury the Russians

by flooding Ukraine with weapons. The annual budget for Russian's armed forces is around $65B.

The US budget is almost $800B. Together with the Europeans - the US doesn't need to risk 

lives - is $100B in weapons enough to stop an obsolete military??   Should be.

 

The whole world is best served by destroying the Russian military.

 

Putin will still have his nukes, but we'll still have ours.

a) Forgiving student loans was a huge mistake that will cost us dearly

b) What makes you think that US interests will be served by destroying Russian military?  China is a much bigger threat to the US than Russia, and it would be nice to have a strong Russia as a counterweight to China, since China is very interested in regaining Siberia, and Russia is afraid of China, and hence a natural enemy of China. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ Well, you may indeed have a point. How about we destroy most of the Russian military

so they don't pose a threat to Europe?

 

Intelligent minds can disagree on how much & how far.

 

In the end, Russia will still poses all it's nukes, which serves as a significant protection against

their enemies.  I figure we'd both like to see their expansionary aggression capabilities

clipped once and for all.

 

We can certainly outspend them, just as Reagan did in the '80's. That's my point.

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Well, you may indeed have a point. How about we destroy most of the Russian military

so they don't pose a threat to Europe?

 

Intelligent minds can disagree on how much & how far.

 

In the end, Russia will still poses all it's nukes, which serves as a significant protection against

their enemies.  I figure we'd both like to see their expansionary aggression capabilities

clipped once and for all.

 

We can certainly outspend them, just as Reagan did in the '80's. That's my point.

Russia and China are linked. First of all, they are allies (even though it may be more like the Stalin Rippentropp pact) and second China is surely watching how Russia is doing in Ukraine and even more so how the West responds to it.

 

I would bet that nobody gave a damn about Ukraine, China would get their preparations for an invasion of Taiwan into overdrive -in fact they may have done it already.

 

China was just a bit smarter to let the Russians go first.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Well that is exactly how I see the situation -but not with huge conviction. I just don't understand enough about Russian/Sino relationships. 

 

The real downside I see to the ramped up of spending against Russia by the US/Europe

is the threat of nuclear war. I don't think anyone can knows what Putin will do - but that

will be hanging over our heads forever with Russia as a future aggressor against the world.

 

Might as well put a stop to it now. It ain't going away on it's own.

[Spekulatius]

35 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Well that is exactly how I see the situation -but not with huge conviction. I just don't understand enough about Russian/Sino relationships. 

 

The real downside I see to the ramped up of spending against Russia by the US/Europe

is the threat of nuclear war. I don't think anyone can knows what Putin will do - but that

will be hanging over our heads forever with Russia as a future aggressor against the world.

 

Might as well put a stop to it now. It ain't going away on it's own.

China is likely complicit and knew about the impending attack. Putin met Xi on February 4 supposedly for the Olympic games when Putin was already amassing his army on the Ukraine border.

 

I am guessing Xi told Putin to wait until the Olympic games are over (20 February) and then Russia attacked on February 24.

 

I don't believe in coincidences on these matters. Now, I am not sure if Xi Jinping approved of this war, but he sure didn't do anything to prevent it either. I think they liked the idea that Putin tries his luck first and then decided to let him hang dry when things went sour and claimed to have nothing to do with the matter whatsoever.

[cubsfan]

^^ Makes total sense.

[Xerxes]

Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was between two extreme ideologies and not two kins. It was always going to blow up. 
 

Sino-Soviet relation (and now that of Russia) had some sour moment in the 1970s, but their current ideology is clearly a anti-Western one (and that front needs a long game and not a short-game which was the basis of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact). That central anti-Western front unites them far more than their differences separates them. 

 

I think you guys are reading too much with WW2 analogies IMHO. 

 

If anything, perhaps there is some resemblance between the clandestine French-British alliance with Israel in the 1956 Suez war. Even that is a stretch.  

[Dinar]

34 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was between two extreme ideologies and not two kins. It was always going to blow up. 
 

Sino-Soviet relation (and now that of Russia) had some sour moment in the 1970s, but their current ideology is clearly a anti-Western one (and that front needs a long game and not a short-game which was the basis of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact). That central anti-Western front unites them far more than their differences separates them. 

 

I think you guys are reading too much with WW2 analogies IMHO. 

 

If anything, perhaps there is some resemblance between the clandestine French-British alliance with Israel in the 1956 Suez war. Even that is a stretch.  

China covets Siberia, which was seized from China by Russia in the 18th and 19th centuries.  

[no_free_lunch]

15 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^If the US can spend $400B to forgive student loans, they could easily help bury the Russians

by flooding Ukraine with weapons. The annual budget for Russian's armed forces is around $65B.

The US budget is almost $800B. Together with the Europeans - the US doesn't need to risk 

lives - is $100B in weapons enough to stop an obsolete military??   Should be.

 

The whole world is best served by destroying the Russian military.

 

Putin will still have his nukes, but we'll still have ours.

 

Agree.  it is so much cheaper to fight Russia in this method than taking US casualties.  There is no choice either, you can maybe give up Ukraine and kick the can down the road a few years but it will just get worse. 

 

I think if it had been an easy win here then maybe Taiwan would already have been taken too.

[Xerxes]

Greg H on Q3 numbers for Raytheon and the war in Ukraine. I appreciate his steady hand and responses, not to mention the work that he does.  

 

Cramer on the other hand …  like an overgrown child who just found where Ukraine is on the map and suddenly expert on the matter. He is a nice guy for sure, but I never cares too much for theatrics. 

 

 

[Castanza]

10 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

Agree.  it is so much cheaper to fight Russia in this method than taking US casualties.  There is no choice either, you can maybe give up Ukraine and kick the can down the road a few years but it will just get worse. 

 

I think if it had been an easy win here then maybe Taiwan would already have been taken too.

 

If I'm reading this correct you are saying that Russia is on a global conquest? 

[boilermaker75]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

If I'm reading this correct you are saying that Russia is on a global conquest? 

 

That made me laugh!