Political Posts

[WayWardCloud]

Yep! And if you look under the hood of VWO you'll see that even though the name hasn't changed we're talking about two completely different allocations. Capital has flown from Latin America (particularly Brazil and Mexico) and into Asia (particularly China, India, S. Korea and Taiwan). So the story is really about Latin America failing to live up to investors (very lofty) expectations, their hopes moving East... just in time to get destroyed by Xi.

 

I wonder sometimes if because those ETFs package together such different areas of the world under the "emerging" umbrella (which by the way makes no sense : S. Korea and Taiwan are developed economies and have been for a while) the slow re-balancing between them make you always about 5-10 years late to the party. For example let's say tensions keep rising in Asia and as a result Latin America receives a lot of US investments to relocate factories and gets a great decade, we'll miss the pendulum completely once again since VWO only has a 10% allocation left in the region.

Edited October 17, 2022 by WayWardCloud

[Libs]

Re Taiwan- interesting point made in a letter to the WSJ today: China ( unlike Russia) imports most of their food. They would be in a world of hurt if sanctions hit. That alone may deter XI.

[Spekulatius]

51 minutes ago, Libs said:

Re Taiwan- interesting point made in a letter to the WSJ today: China ( unlike Russia) imports most of their food. They would be in a world of hurt if sanctions hit. That alone may deter XI.

Not just food, but also crude oil, LNG, coal, raw materials etc. Think about how easy it would be to blockade all these things outside the Chinese sea for the US navy with help from the Japanese.
The Chinese have no navy ships whatsoever to protect their trade lines outside the Chinese sea. They would be on the ropes in 4 weeks.

[UK]

https://www.yahoo.com/now/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-joins-175616088.html

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.yahoo.com/now/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-joins-175616088.html

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/12/elon-musk-russia-ukraine-00061528

[Dinar]

I think that he is correct.  Also, keep in mind that until 1954 Crimea was part of Russia, and Khruschev gifted Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 to celebrate 400 year anniversary of the union between Russia and Ukraine

[Xerxes]

I get a feeling even if at some point Ukraine formally recognize Crimea as de jure Russian territory as a concession to end the war, you still have Western countries that by spite will oppose that and not recognize that. 
 

Israel annexed the Golan Heights in early 1980s, after few decades of occupation after having getting hold of it in the 1967 war. The only country to formally recognize that was U.S. and only under Trump so some +30 years later, after Israel’s annexation and some 50 years after Israel conquered it. 

[james22]

Semiconductors: China Is Fucked

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52980

[Viking]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

Semiconductors: China Is Fucked

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52980

If 25% of what the author suggests is accurate… Wow! The gloves are off. So how does China respond? Taiwan is the obvious move. It becomes even more important to bring Taiwan back into the family. And when does this shit show hit Apple right between the eyes? Might want to buy that favourite Apple device while they are still available.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Viking

[LC]

It’s really wild to think that no Chinese citizens have the intellectual chops to develop and manufacture these chips. I mean, is this really true? After how much the Chinese IP theft storyline has been pushed the past 10+ years? I have no first or even secondhand knowledge here so curious if anyone on the board can provide some insight.

[Spekulatius]

Just now, LC said:

It’s really wild to think that no Chinese citizens have the intellectual chops to develop and manufacture these chips. I mean, is this really true? After how much the Chinese IP theft storyline has been pushed the past 10+ years? I have no first or even secondhand knowledge here so curious if anyone on the board can provide some insight.

The IP theft has definitely going on in semis. They can develop this tech too, but it takes time and they may never be able to catch up if the west keeps innovating. Right now, they are at least 10 years behind. I don't know how long it takes for China to get to the current leading edge, but it is possible that if they get totally cut off from western leading edge tech, that they can never catch up because the western companies keep the innovation edge the same.

 

Also keep in mind that it is much harder to copy tech that you can't buy any more. Something like leading edge equipment won't get into Chinese hands any more. Even blueprints and electronic records (if they can steal them) only go so far.

 

I don't think China is totally screwed, but they totally need to reboot their semiconductor development effort and probably start from basics in many respects.

[Castanza]

4 hours ago, LC said:

It’s really wild to think that no Chinese citizens have the intellectual chops to develop and manufacture these chips. I mean, is this really true? After how much the Chinese IP theft storyline has been pushed the past 10+ years? I have no first or even secondhand knowledge here so curious if anyone on the board can provide some insight.

Communism is a hell of a suppressant. Story used to be “Russia probably has some crazy technology!”. Turns out they didn’t either. 
 

There is some good discussion on this in the Intel thread on this. Idk if it’s they can’t, vs the barrier to entry and accumulated knowledge base on process makes it extremely difficult to catch-up. 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Castanza

[crs223]

Assuming this is true…

 

I have to say I am impressed with the USA.  I assumed we were too consumed with preferred pronouns and other “intangibles” to resist China.

 

Im particularly scared about education in US vs China — e.g. SAT not required for college entry.

 

China unleashed COVID, fentanyl, and IP theft for decades — all we did was send a harassment squad to Taiwan for a lousy photo op.

[Castanza]

On 10/17/2022 at 12:28 AM, Xerxes said:

I have not done any research but I would say (as an uninformed person) that Wagner Group reminds me more of Blackwater than SS Waffen. 
 

SS Waffen wasn’t created as a commercial entity to privatize war.

 

Both Blackwater and Wagner Group were.

 

SS Waffen was an instrument of the Party, and while may have started as Hitler’ bodyguards, it’s combat division worked side by side with Wehrmacht.   
 

There was a video interview, I saw years back where one of the heads of Blackwater was stupid enough to compare his company to the East India Company taking on the savages. The sheer cluelessness and arrogance of these people was too much for me. 

A lot of misconceptions about Black Water out there. US government used them and then threw them under the bus many times. 
 

A few interviews I think you would enjoy. Long but it’s unfiltered info from actual sources. 
 

https://youtu.be/nwK_XLFOm_I

https://youtu.be/DUvO0yO7N5I

 

And a bonus one with insiders about the Afghan pullout. 
 

https://youtu.be/nwK_XLFOm_I

 

 

[Spekulatius]

58 minutes ago, crs223 said:

Assuming this is true…

 

I have to say I am impressed with the USA.  I assumed we were too consumed with preferred pronouns and other “intangibles” to resist China.

 

Im particularly scared about education in US vs China — e.g. SAT not required for college entry.

 

China unleashed COVID, fentanyl, and IP theft for decades — all we did was send a harassment squad to Taiwan for a lousy photo op.

I think the semiconductor sanctions were the right move, done fairly late in the game. They would have been better done 5 years ago.

 

As for college without taking SAT score - yes you can do that, but you won’t get into a good one. My son is at that stage as senior and without taking SAT or ACT test and scoring relatively high, the chances that get into a decent college are small.

[crs223]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the semiconductor sanctions were the right move, done fairly late in the game. They would have been better done 5 years ago.

 

Winston Churchill allegedly said “you can always trust the United States to do the right thing… after all other options have been exhausted”

[Spekulatius]

Maybe it just my bias, but this CCP Congress feels pretty dour. This does not help either:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3196157/chinese-military-must-move-faster-become-world-class-fighting

 

Her is what Xi Xinping said about the military:

The use of military power needs to be normalised and used in diverse ways,” he said in the report published on Sunday.

“We need to be able to stage military operations readily, create a secure environment, deter and control risks and conflicts, and win regional wars.”
 

 

 

“Win regional” wars is probably a snipe at Russian attacking Ukraine and losing. “ Normalized” and “Diverse ways” in the context of military power does not sound all that promising either.

 

I think it’s pretty clear at this point that if you play in the Chinese sandbox as a western country investor, you are at the risk of losing your marbles.

 

With the semiconductor sanctions, the Chinese semiconductor companies probably all will become state sponsored enterprises, if they haven’t been already. Quite likely, that applies to suppliers and ancillary sectors as well.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Spekulatius

[boilermaker75]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 They can develop this tech too, but it takes time and they may never be able to catch up if the west keeps innovating. 

 

I used to work on GaAs semiconductor devices. We had a saying, GaAs was the semiconductor of the future, and it always will be. It came from knowing so many more researchers were working on silicon that silicon would always be ahead.

[Xerxes]

Thanks @Castanza. Though to the clip looks long. 
 

is the misconception that you are speaking of is about them not being a commercial venture ?
 

i know as much about Blackwater as I know about Wagner Group, which is not much, other than they are “guns for hire” type of organization. In Wagner case, going further and actually acting as unofficial army of the State and its proxy. 
 

SS Waffen was not “guns for hire” nor a proxy to be used in distant hybrid wars. It was the very embodiment of the NSDAP party, it’s leader and its ideological spearhead. 
 

 

[Castanza]

32 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Thanks @Castanza. Though to the clip looks long. 
 

is the misconception that you are speaking of is about them not being a commercial venture ?
 

i know as much about Blackwater as I know about Wagner Group, which is not much, other than they are “guns for hire” type of organization. In Wagner case, going further and actually acting as unofficial army of the State and its proxy. 
 

SS Waffen was not “guns for hire” nor a proxy to be used in distant hybrid wars. It was the very embodiment of the NSDAP party, it’s leader and its ideological spearhead. 
 

 

 

The misconception is that they (Blackwater) are just ruthless mercenaries. Both President Obama and Biden used them for FID and personal protection many times. A lot of the standards in the organization are even higher than what the US military has. Blackwater became an easy scapegoat for the US government over seas. Media jumped on specific instances without context and well that's pretty much how they got labeled. 

 

The last one though about Pineapple Express is something I think you'd like since you seem to enjoy Middle Eastern History etc. Also shows the complete lack of competence of the US govt (Kamala Harris asking unpaid volunteers footing the bill to get their friends out of Afghanistan to help get her people of interest out). 

 

Anyways sorry that's off topic from the thread. 

[james22]

15 hours ago, crs223 said:

I have to say I am impressed with the USA.  I assumed we were too consumed with preferred pronouns and other “intangibles” to resist China.

 

You don't have to be impressed with the US to recognize our competitors have much more fundamental problems.

[Xerxes]

Not off topic and all info is great info. I will be listening to the last link. Thanks again 

[crs223]

30 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

You don't have to be impressed with the US to recognize our competitors have much more fundamental problems.

 

What would you say is Chinas most fundamental problem?  And the US?

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

What would you say is Chinas most fundamental problem?  And the US?

Lousy demographics

Lousy geostrategic location

Lack of resources and no way to protect their trade routes

Lousy leadership.

I think Zeihan is broadly correct, although he is oversimplifying and he is sensantionalistic.

[james22]

24 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

What would you say is Chinas most fundamental problem?  And the US?

 

The fundamental advantages: free speech, free markets, and free elections.

 

China's (and Russia's) problems are obviously fundamental.

 

The US problems (political polarization) don't compare.