Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

Just listened to the odd lot's podcast about  China. It does a good job of describing the confluence of factors currently impacting the Chinese economy (real estate, zero COVID, stimulus (or lack thereoff), drought etc.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/odd-lots-podcast-tom-orlik-on-china-s-economy-covid-zero-and-real-estate?srnd=oddlots-podcast

 

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future

 

Must read article on what's going on in China politically. Is Xi really the man you want to hitch your wagon to?

[maxthetrade]

On 9/2/2022 at 11:18 PM, Viking said:

China is a wolf in sheep's clothing (politically and economically). It is run by a communist government and its core values are diametrically opposed to those of Western nations. This was ignored for decades… China’s political and economic clout was small so who cared? That is no longer the case today: China is a political and economic gorilla. And for some strange reason it has also decided to shed the sheep’s clothing. The wolf is now in plain sight for all to see.
 

Western governments and companies are slowly and finally starting to  understand the reality of China. It is a formidable adversary who plays by very different rules (THERE ARE NO RULES in a communist system… think about that). Liberal democracies are at a big disadvantage (in terms of playbook).

 

Over time, political and economic relations between the West and China will continue to get worse. For 2 reasons:

1.) the West has woken from its stupor and recognizes China for the threat that it is

2.) China has decided it will kowtow to the West no more - in economic, political and military terms it has reached ‘critical mass’
So that means game on.

 

With chips, the US is not poking China in the eye. Rather, the US is simply recognizing the current reality and acting accordingly (better late than never). We now have Cold War Book 2. The West vs the authoritarian block (lead by China). 
 

Western companies operating in China better get their heads out of their ass. Nvidea is just another example of what is coming for companies who refuse to deal with reality. 

 

Couldn't agree more! I thought that China under Deng Xiaoping was on a path to more freedom, this has completely changed under Xi Jinping who clearly is a neo Maoist. On the one hand that scares me on the other hand if gives me hope that he completely screws up.

It's time for the free democracies to wake up and deal with reality.

[Spekulatius]

35 minutes ago, maxthetrade said:

 

Couldn't agree more! I thought that China under Deng Xiaoping was on a path to more freedom, this has completely changed under Xi Jinping who clearly is a neo Maoist. On the one hand that scares me on the other hand if gives me hope that he completely screws up.

It's time for the free democracies to wake up and deal with reality.

I also went from being a moderate bull on Chinese stocks to being bearish. The stuff is all out there, the well researched DW documentary, Document #9, the spy legislation. It's not a surprise that the performance of Chinese equity has been crappy in general.

Now, if you chose to invest in China, you first have to make sure you know what you are buying but also how it fits into the political framework and then there are tripwires like fraud, delisting's and pot sanctions as well as the possibility of another iron curtain rolling up once China tries the Taiwan unification. Seems like a lot of risk for what you are getting.

 

There is certainly opportunity there, but at this point investing in China feels like playing in hard mode.

[Viking]

5 hours ago, Ballinvarosig Investors said:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future

 

Must read article on what's going on in China politically. Is Xi really the man you want to hitch your wagon to?

Anyone who doesn’t understand how China works needs to read that article. What a messed up political system. As China’s economy continues to get bigger, just like with the former Soviet Union, allocation of scare resources gets much more difficult with a communist model. Thanks for posting. 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Viking

[sleepydragon]

I think contra to what most people think, Chinese stock is going to rally huge after Xi is confirmed.

The strict Covid policy and Taiwan issues etc we see now is a reflection of the fierce in-flighting within CCP.  After the in-fighting is completed, Xi will focus on economy. Massive stimulus is coming.
there’s also a lot rumors (some seems quite convincing) on Twitter that Xi will not be re-elected or will take a smaller role if he is. 

[aceskc]

Isnt Covid Zero a Xi mandate? Why would he back down after gaining more power?

[Spekulatius]

Interesting - there are several reports out that the Ukrainians have broken through the frontline east of Kharkiv. Apparently the Russian have moved forces out of the area to reinforce the Kherson front, where the well publicized offensive in the south has taken place. Now they are apparently getting rolled in the North.

 

Could be an absolute rout, if some sources are to be believed, but needs more confirmation.

 

Buying ammunition from North Korea is not exactly an indication of strength either.  Saw a  pic on of a spent Russian Artillery shell dated 1964. That's older than I am.

 

[maplevalue]

27 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting - there are several reports out that the Ukrainians have broken through the frontline east of Kharkiv. Apparently the Russian have moved forces out of the area to reinforce the Kherson front, where the well publicized offensive in the south has taken place. Now they are apparently getting rolled in the North.

 

Could be an absolute rout, if some sources are to be believed, but needs more confirmation.

 

Buying ammunition from North Korea is not exactly an indication of strength either.  Saw a  pic on of a spent Russian Artillery shell dated 1964. That's older than I am.

 

It does seem like the tide has turned. I do wonder if there is an element similar to Afghanistan 2021 where the paltry will of the defenders leads to a swift recapture of territory.

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, aceskc said:

Isnt Covid Zero a Xi mandate? Why would he back down after gaining more power?

Covid zero policy enable him to exercise his power and grab more power, same as what Pelosi’s visit enabled him to move more military and promoted generals he liked. When he is confirmed to rule again, his focus will hopefully turn into economy.

 

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

Covid zero policy enable him to exercise his power and grab more power, same as what Pelosi’s visit enabled him to move more military and promoted generals he liked. When he is confirmed to rule again, his focus will hopefully turn into economy.

 

Yes, he could focus on other things after being confirmed, but why helped Zero COVID-19 helped him grab more power?

It seems more likely that he put a stance on this and now can't walk it back easily, since it makes him look wrong and weak. If so, the Zero COVID  policy likely will remain there for quite some time.

 

It's interesting that this is also related to China not having a vaccine that works. They got out of the gate early with a vaccine that has proven not to be effective, even sold it to countries like Thailand (which stopped ordering it).

 

I guess they could have made a deal with western companies like Moderna or Pfizer but then they would have to swallow the bitter pill that they couldn't do this themselves. They rather lock up millions from time to time when a new wave blasts through the country.

 

That's the thing with autocracies, stupid things can keep going on for a long time, if they come from the top. For them it makes sense to rather pay a high price than admit you are wrong. They don't have the purge mechanism of a democracy that can get rid of bad governance with elections.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Spekulatius

[crs223]

23 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

That's the thing with autocracies, stupid things can keep going on for a long time

 

… things can be stopped quickly too

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8164763/china-ban-sissy-men-effeminate/

[Castanza]

6 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

I think contra to what most people think, Chinese stock is going to rally huge after Xi is confirmed.

The strict Covid policy and Taiwan issues etc we see now is a reflection of the fierce in-flighting within CCP.  After the in-fighting is completed, Xi will focus on economy. Massive stimulus is coming.
there’s also a lot rumors (some seems quite convincing) on Twitter that Xi will not be re-elected or will take a smaller role if he is. 

After the infighting is done? Does it ever end? With who as the winner? Xi? He wants a more closed isolated China. His policies speak for themselves. 

[aws]

Seems like a bad few days for the Russians. In less than a week Ukraine has reversed 4 months of gains. Rumor has it Ukraine has captured the Russian commanding general in the area as well:

 

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/top-russian-general-possibly-captured-in-uaf-kharkiv-offensive.html

 

Even their propagandists on state media are starting to show fear:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1568310989149605888

 

 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, crs223 said:

 

… things can be stopped quickly too

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8164763/china-ban-sissy-men-effeminate/

 

China continues to crack down and reveal their true colors. And not surprisingly China's 'new' values (text book definition of totalitarian) look to be almost an exact match to Apple's values as a company. I wonder how all of this also plays into a companies ESG score? How do you even score a totalitarian regime like China's on ESG? What a mess...

-----------

Macho, macho man.

 

China wants to be a country of macho men, and it’s trying to make that happen by banning “sissy” boybands and “effeminate” males from all media in the nation.

 

Broadcasters must “resolutely put an end to sissy men and other abnormal esthetics,” the National Radio and TV Administration wrote in a new set of rules released Thursday. It also used the term “niang pao,” an insult for effeminate men that means “girlie guns.”

 

The new rules call for broadcasters to enforce a “correct beauty standard” and to boycott “vulgar” internet celebrities and celebrations of wealth, while promoting “traditional Chinese culture, revolutionary culture and socialist culture.” They also ban all “idol audition shows” and recommend blacklisting anyone who has broken the law or offended public morals.

 

Additionally, the rules say that broadcasters should avoid airing anything that is “overly entertaining.”

The Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda department announced the new media masculinity rules on Thursday, in its latest effort to police morality through censorship.

 

President Xi Jinping has essentially pledged to Make China Great Again with a “national rejuvenation,” which he is trying to pull off through strict control of all business, education, culture and religion in the country.

 

The CCP has racked up a long list of censorship and human rights abuses in recent years, from the persecution of ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang, to the complete denial of the 1989 massacre at Tiananmen Square, to new rules that ban certain karaoke songs or limit children from playing more than three hours of online video games a week.

Even Winnie the Pooh has been banned, after the character was once used to mock Xi.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Viking

[sleepydragon]

Keep in mind Xi doesn’t represent china. He’s pretty powerful now, but he has lost a lot of support from regular Chinese in recent years. He’s not that powerful as it appears now.
Just like you won’t stop investing in US stock markets when you have a bad president, you shouldn’t stop investing in good companies because of you have a political or macro view..

[Guest]

I'm pretty confident that a nation of "manly men" would fairly easily defeat a nation of effeminate men. The promotion of effeminate men in the West is highly irrational. 

 

 

[scorpioncapital]

I see no difference in this than what Nietzsche wrote about the 2 types of societies - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master–slave_morality

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

I see no difference in this than what Nietzsche wrote about the 2 types of societies - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master–slave_morality

 

 

The dude lost his mind. Why value his thoughts on this topic?

[Spekulatius]

Good summary what happened on several frontlines:

The large scale breakthrough is definitely confirmed and Russia has been pushed back to the Oskil River. Izium and the critical rail junction in Kupyansk (sp?) have been captured by Ukraine. The Russian front further south also looks brittle and could end up in a huge encirclement, if Ukraine can take advantage.

[mcliu]

Huge turning point in this conflict.

The question is if this will lead to a Russian withdrawal or greater escalation and WW3.

[no_free_lunch]

People have been speculating since day one that Ukraine is about to lose and it's best if they lose quick and in the rare the event that they don't lose then they certainly will get nuked.  All theories so far have been proven wrong.

[Spekulatius]

Interesting that some of @shhughes1116 predictions are actually happening right now:

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Lots of support for the war / special operation in Russia, even more are ignoring it:

 

[changegonnacome]

Yep curious for @shhughes1116 latest take on things….is this a true turning point and what options does Putin have remaining to him now?