Political Posts

[cubsfan]

Not sure if any of you monitor TEW on YouTube , but they are putting up some fabulous clips up:

 

 

 

 

[cwericb]

49 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I'm with the camp that the issues with Nazis in Ukraine are overplayed.  The fact that the country is lead by a Jewish leader says a lot.  These nazi types exist in every country and even the Canadian military has it. 

 

I would watch those far on the right in the west, in Canada and the US. Russia propaganda has fully immersed to that side.  It's good to question the narrative from MSM but to just take the opposite side and support Russia is foolish.   There is not a lot of critical thinking or consideration of the war crimes by Russia in Chechnya or Syria.  All swept under the rug because Russia is going to "take down the deep state" which these clowns believe is based out of Ukraine.  100% Russia propaganda and its going to go against these people when we end up having to fight Russia.

 

I essentially agree with this. I also think that those who constantly attempt to discredit the MSM by calling them ‘scum’ simply live in a world of their own where they primarily expose themselves to media that only support their own limited views.

The hope today is that main stream media and social media will be able to penetrate the new Iron Curtain and get the word out to the Russian people as to what is really happening in the Ukraine - as opposed to the fiction that the Putin controlled Russian media is spouting about how the Ukrainian Forces have been attacking Belarus and Russia.

Your last sentence is a scary, scary thought. But unless Putin can be replaced by a modern day Gorbachev, I don’t see how we are to avoid this scenario. Anyone who believes that Putin will stop at the Crimea and the Ukraine is very naive and ignores history.

[cwericb]

 

An Open Letter to the Global Media by Olena Zelenska

Recently, an overwhelming number of media outlets from around the world have reached out with requests for interviews. This letter serves as my answer to these requests and is my testimony from Ukraine.

What happened just over a week ago was impossible to believe. Our country was peaceful; our cities, towns, and villages were full of life.

On February 24th, we all woke up to the announcement of a Russian invasion. Tanks crossed the Ukrainian border, planes entered our airspace, missile launchers surrounded our cities.

Despite assurances from Kremlin-backed propaganda outlets, who call this a "special operation" - it is, in fact, the mass murder of Ukrainian civilians.

Perhaps the most terrifying and devastating of this invasion are the child casualties. Eight-year-old Alice who died on the streets of Okhtyrka while her grandfather tried to protect her. Or Polina from Kyiv, who died in the shelling with her parents. 14-year-old Arseniy was hit in the head by wreckage, and could not be saved because an ambulance could not get to him on time because of intense fires.

When Russia says that it is 'not waging war against civilians,' I call out the names of these murdered children first.

Our women and children now live in bomb shelters and basements. You have most likely all seen these images from Kyiv and Kharkiv metro stations, where people lie on the floors with their children and pets – trapped beneath. These are just consequences of war for some, for Ukrainians it now a horrific reality. In some cities families cannot get out of the bomb shelters for several days in a row because of the indiscriminate and deliberate bombing and shelling of civilian infrastructure.

The first newborn of the war, saw the concrete ceiling of the basement, their first breath was the acrid air of the underground, and they were greeted by a community trapped and terrorized. At this point, there are several dozen children who have never known peace in their lives.

This war is being waged against the civilian population, and not just through shelling.

Some people require intensive care and continuous treatment, which they cannot receive now. How easy is it to inject insulin in the basement? Or to get asthma medication under heavy fire? Not to mention the thousands of cancer patients whose essential access to chemotherapy and radiation treatment have now been indefinitely delayed.

Local communities on social media are full of despair. Many people, including the elderly, severely ill and those with disabilities, have been debilitatingly cut off, ending up far from their families and without any support. War against these innocent people is a double crime.

Our roads are flooded with refugees. Look into the eyes of these tired women and children who carry with them the pain and heartache of leaving loved ones and life as they knew it behind. The men bringing them to the borders shedding tears to break apart their families, but bravely returning to fight for our freedom. After all, despite all this horror, Ukrainians do not give up.

The aggressor, Putin, thought that he would unleash blitzkrieg on Ukraine. But he underestimated our country, our people, and their patriotism. Ukrainians, regardless of political views, native language, beliefs, and nationalities, stand in unparalleled unity.

While Kremlin propagandists bragged that Ukrainians would welcome them with flowers as saviors, they have been shunned with Molotov cocktails.

I thank the citizens of the attacked cities, who have coordinated to help those in need. Those that keep working - in pharmacies, stores, public transportation, and social services – showing that in Ukraine, life wins.

I acknowledge those that have provided humanitarian aid to our citizens and thank you for your continued support. And to our neighbors who have generously opened their borders to provide shelter for our women and children, thank you for keeping them safe, when the aggressor has rendered us unable to do so.

To all the people around the world who are rallying to support Ukraine. We see you! We’re here watching and appreciate your support.

Ukraine wants peace. But Ukraine will defend its borders. Defend its identity. These it will never yield.

In cities where shelling persists, where people find themselves under debris, unable to get out of basements for days, we need safe corridors for humanitarian aid and evacuation of civilians to safety. We need those in power to close our sky!

Close the sky, and we will manage the war on the ground ourselves.

I appeal to you, dear media: keep showing what is happening here and keep showing the truth. In the information war waged by the Russian Federation, every piece of evidence is crucial.

And with this letter, I testify and tell the world: the war in Ukraine is not a war "somewhere out there." This is a war in Europe, close to the EU borders. Ukraine is stopping the force that may aggressively enter your cities tomorrow under the pretext of saving civilians.

Last week to me and my people, this would have seemed like an exaggeration, but it is the reality we’re living in today. And we do not know how long it will last. If we don't stop Putin, who threatens to start a nuclear war, there will be no safe place in the world for any of us.

We will win. Because of our unity. Unity towards love for Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine!

 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

I'm with the camp that the issues with Nazis in Ukraine are overplayed.  The fact that the country is lead by a Jewish leader says a lot.  These nazi types exist in every country and even the Canadian military has it. 

 

I would watch those far on the right in the west, in Canada and the US. Russia propaganda has fully immersed to that side.  It's good to question the narrative from MSM but to just take the opposite side and support Russia is foolish.   There is not a lot of critical thinking or consideration of the war crimes by Russia in Chechnya or Syria.  All swept under the rug because Russia is going to "take down the deep state" which these clowns believe is based out of Ukraine.  100% Russia propaganda and its going to go against these people when we end up having to fight Russia.

 

Fully agree. I actually  think the reporting from the MSM is quite good. I watch NBC News / Sky (cause I have free Peacock with my new TV) and they have people on the ground and do seem to do sober assessments.

 

Using the arguments “It’s their own fault- they poked the bear” is like saying,  a school bully can kick in another kids teeth and crush his skull with a hammer because that kid looked at the school bully funny and made a wrong joke.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

The only thing non investment related people need to realize is that all the hobnobbing government people play games. They do self serving shit and the costs are always bore by the people. It’s tragic for both the people of Ukraine and Russia as well as the folks from there living all over the world. I mean imagine being an anti Putin Russian living IN RUSSIA? Now you get fucked economically because western government needs an excuse for the inflation problem they created through their bungling of COVID. So you’ve suffered for all these years because you’ve opposed a totalitarian regime and now that regime does something you oppose and you get walloped by the virtue signalers in the ivory towers! Kind of like being a Republican in a blue state in the US right now. 
 

Тhats why to a certain degree, hostilities towards the people who through their own need to virtue signal, vote for or financially endorse this crap….can sometimes be justified. My friends father in law a good example. Retired NYC school principal. Moves to Florida two years ago and now complains about policies he doesn’t understand because the media tells him to get mad at De Santis. Like the kids wearing masks thing. Oh my god he was a taking piece. And my friend simply tells him, nothing forced you to move from NY. YOU chose to move because you liked this better. So don’t come here with all YOUR crap; the ideologies that turned where you came from into what it is, and now start trying to spread the same toxic shit here. If you find it so bad you don’t have to be here but don’t ruin what’s great for no reason but your own selfish BS. You make a fortune off your pension but at the same time abhor NYC taxes? Hypocrite. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Gregmal

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

“It’s their own fault- they poked the bear”

 

Just want to be clear, lest some of my comments earlier in this thread came across as some kind absolution of Russian responsibility or agency here.

 

Russia is the aggressor and transgressor of international norms and laws here. They say war is the failure of politics & 'they' are right.....to get to this point and then simply layer on a victim & the perpetrator narrative is not to understand how we got here but also more importantly, for an investing forum, trying to predict the future..........how this will end.

Edited March 12, 2022 by changegonnacome

[no_free_lunch]

Gregmal, this is a lot bigger issue than fits into a leftist entitlement box. I think if you read through my posts, I am pretty far from being a left wing supporter.  In fact a lot of conservatives actually do support Ukraine , in their own way.  That can mean sanctions or mil aid. Many support it. You don't want to support it that's your opinion and that's fine, not really actually at all, but this is a lot bigger than the left right.  You have a nuclear superpower wanting to go toe to toe and you and admittedly many in the left want to revert to domestic politics.  Wake the fuck up.

 

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Just want to be clear, lest some of my comments earlier in this thread came across as some kind absolution of Russian responsibility or agency here.

 

Russia is the aggressor and transgressor of international norms and laws here. They say is war is the failure of politics & 'they' are right.....to get to this point and then simply layer on a victim & the perpetrator narrative is not to understand how we got here but also more importantly, for an investing forum, trying to predict the future, how this will end.

Exactly. 100%. The narrative a lot of people are swallowing is that “completely out of nowhere, with zero warning or provocation, Russia went in and massacred Ukraine”.  
 

Notice how all these “problems”, over and over again, involve the SAME solution! More and bigger global government. More reliance from people on government resources. More taxes and commandeering of private property. If you don’t see that you’re being played. And what’s worse is how they use these tragic situations to further manipulate. As Viking eluded to earlier….we MUST be Putin sympathizers if we don’t see it their way. They came for republicans and libertarians and now they’re even steamrolling moderate liberals like Manchin.

[Gregmal]

11 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Gregmal, this is a lot bigger issue than fits into a leftist entitlement box. I think if you read through my posts, I am pretty far from being a left wing supporter.  In fact a lot of conservatives actually do support Ukraine , in their own way.  That can mean sanctions or mil aid. Many support it. You don't want to support it that's your opinion and that's fine, not really actually at all, but this is a lot bigger than the left right.  You have a nuclear superpower wanting to go toe to toe and you and admittedly many in the left want to revert to domestic politics.  Wake the fuck up.

 

Not at all. But sadly, the honest truth is that Ukraine is a lost cause. They can “win” the war, if by win we mean get Russia to retreat and rebuild their pile of rubble. But in my book that’s not a win. It’s done and nothing that can be done will bring back the buildings and places, not to mention all the loved ones lost in this. So sitting around here virtue signaling about help is laughable. You know how we really help? Next time don’t start meddling in other countries business! Don’t vote for politicians who have been playing the same game for decades! Do things differently than they’ve previously been done because otherwise NOTHING will change. Meanwhile many suggest the solution is giving these SAME people who got us here, more money, more power! What a joke!

[Spekulatius]

26 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Just want to be clear, lest some of my comments earlier in this thread came across as some kind absolution of Russian responsibility or agency here.

 

Russia is the aggressor and transgressor of international norms and laws here. They say is war is the failure of politics & 'they' are right.....to get to this point and then simply layer on a victim & the perpetrator narrative is not to understand how we got here but also more importantly, for an investing forum, trying to predict the future, how this will end.

The end likely will be ruined Russian economy, Ukraine be destroyed and depopulated and Europe will become much less dependent on Russian energy. The Iron curtain will raise again.

 

I think we might get a recession in Europe in the near term, caused by higher energy costs, pot. Energy shortages as well as supply disruptions and less trade with Russia.

 

Yes, war is almost always precedent by diplomatic failure although I would argue that sometimes it is inevitable, if you you get someone like Hitler showing up, WW1 was a diplomatic/policy failure WW2 was not.  I am still not sure which camp Putin is in, he might just be one of those guys that are looking to get into a fight when they think it’s opportune.

 

You certainly also can take the other side that there has been a series of policy failures dealing with him from Obama, Trump to Biden (before the invasion).

 

I think Biden did one crucial mistake since the Invasion telling Putin that he will not get US troops involved. This is a mistake because you never want to paint a red line to your opponent and tell them where it is. You rather want Putin guessing what you might do, even if you have no intention whatsoever to actually put boots on the ground. This was an unforced mistake, imo.

 

They also made an mistake not getting the deal with the Polish MiG-29 ‘s done. They should not have talked about this and just call it “donation of NATO surplus to the Ukrainians” if they must. We are supplying weapons to the Ukraine so I am not sure why we paint another red line for ourselves here.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[patience_and_focus]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The end likely will be ruined Russian economy, Ukraine be destroyed and depopulated and Europe will become much less dependent on Russian energy. The Iron curtain will raise again.

 

I think we might get a recession in Europe in the near term, caused by higher energy costs, pot. Energy shortages as well as supply disruptions and less trade with Russia.

 

Yes, war is almost always precedent by diplomatic failure although I would argue that sometimes it is inevitable, if you you get someone like Hitler showing up, WW1 was a diplomatic/policy failure WW2 was not.  I am still not sure which camp Putin is in, he might just be one of those guys that are looking to get into a fight when they think it’s opportune.

 

You certainly also can take the other side that there has been a series of policy failures dealing with him from Obama, Trump to Biden (before the invasion).

 

I think Biden did one crucial mistake since the Invasion telling Putin that he will not get US troops involved. This is a mistake because you never want to paint a red line to your opponent and tell them where it is. You rather want Putin guessing what you might do, even if you have no intention whatsoever to actually put boots on the ground. This was an unforced mistake, imo.

 

They also made an mistake not getting the deal with the Polish MiG-29 ‘s done. They should not have talked about this and just call it “donation of NATO surplus to the Ukrainians” if they must. We are supplying weapons to the Ukraine so I am not sure why we paint another red line for ourselves here.

I think Trump would have said the same thing, no troops on the ground. And I agree, even though you are right that this gives a clear view to Putin. The flip side is that it forces Europe and it's countries to look in the mirror and ask - is my army going to be ready if US doesn't show up. It is a factor in German and Dutch military budget hike. It will force them to make their army combat ready in future. It could mean loosing Ukrainian in the near term but gaining ability to counter punch with European troops in future.

 

Or one can only hope.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I think Biden did one crucial mistake since the Invasion telling Putin that he will not get US troops involved. This is a mistake because you never want to paint a red line to your opponent and tell them where it is. You rather want Putin guessing what you might do, even if you have no intention whatsoever to actually put boots on the ground. This was an unforced mistake, imo.

 

1000000% agree, it was beyond stupid to not leave this option on the table....such that the potential costs would be raised as Putin weighed up what to do next.

 

Biden PR's gurus in the background must have told him that with Afghanistan still looming large in focus group discussions.....having an ambiguous position on troops in Ukraine would not "play well" at the Mid-terms........well look whats happened now the Democrats are going to be destroyed at polls with energy prices ramping up & inflation prints about to get worse (when without this war they were likely going to get better)

Edited March 12, 2022 by changegonnacome

[SharperDingaan]

42 minutes ago, patience_and_focus said:

I think Trump would have said the same thing, no troops on the ground. And I agree, even though you are right that this gives a clear view to Putin. The flip side is that it forces Europe and it's countries to look in the mirror and ask - is my army going to be ready if US doesn't show up. It is a factor in German and Dutch military budget hike. It will force them to make their army combat ready in future. It could mean loosing Ukrainian in the near term but gaining ability to counter punch with European troops in future.

 

Or one can only hope.

 

The return of the Iron Curtain is a very valid possibility here.

Whatever we might think, Ukraine grows the food for a great many people in Europe, and the economies of both Russia and Europe would prosper under a return to the military spending of the old 'cold war'; generals on all sides need a robust career path.

 

SD

[Viking]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Just want to be clear, lest some of my comments earlier in this thread came across as some kind absolution of Russian responsibility or agency here.

 

Russia is the aggressor and transgressor of international norms and laws here. They say is war is the failure of politics & 'they' are right.....to get to this point and then simply layer on a victim & the perpetrator narrative is not to understand how we got here but also more importantly, for an investing forum, trying to predict the future, how this will end.

My view on this issue continues to be primarily driven by Ukraine (a sovereign country) and the Ukrainian people. All +40 million of them. Its funny how little we talk about them when trying to understand what is going on. What they want. What they are willing to die for. How much resolve they have.
 

Today it appears to me THEY ARE PREPARED TO DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO KEEP THEIR FREEDOM (right to self determination). People on this board need to think about why this is? Ukrainians are not stupid. 

[changegonnacome]

@Viking I think in this discussion & in your comments above.....there is lots of idealism & wishful thinking (Russia losing war / Putin to be overthrown), the ideal Ukrainian soverignity & self-determintion,  there is also element of tribalism...in that everything 'we' do is good, what 'they' do is bad. Perhaps personally I have fierce contrarian bias that clouds my thinking too that acknowledge.

 

Below is a clip from a recent interview with John Mearsheimer......and his assessment chimes with my read of the situation...its pragmatic with not a shred of idealism.. ....I think his thinking is well reasoned & what we should all aspire to, as investors/thinkers, which is a detached realistic assessment of reality, based on historic evidence (sanctions) & game theory with an overlay of how in reality flimsy international "law" is in certain circumstances.

 

And for a definition of 'great power'........even in a declining state like Russia, with a tiny GDP & not that technologically advanced......the only requirement in our world to get into that great power group is to have pretty much any ballistic nuclear capability......and then a special place is reserved a the top of the great power group for those with a balisitic nuclear capability that can destroy the whole world (this group includes only two member the USA (5,500 warheads) & Russia (6257 warheads) with China way below with only 350 warheads. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons 

 

Like it or not Russia is great power........Putin/Russia literally controls the destruction of the whole planet & human race at his fingertips. 

 

When you strip away "society" and "law" there exists an undeniable third pillar of life.......the law of the jungle which sits below everything.....or as Mearsheimer says in the clip below "might equals right". It's not comforting to acknowledge this but it is the reality.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by changegonnacome

[cwericb]

Jeez, does anyone here really think that this is the end of Putin’s expansion plans? REALLY?

 

Have some people not learned anything from WWII? In 1939 the U.S. dithered around for two long years before entering the war and only then because they were asleep at the switch and got attacked at Pearl for their isolationism.

 

Where do you isolationist guys draw the line? Romania? Hungary? Poland? Germany? France? Great Britain? Canada? Alaska? Hawaii? New York?

 

Last time around, Germany marched all the way through to France and the Middle East and then aligned with Japan to cover the Pacific. Germany/Japan in WWII kinda looks like Russia/China moving forward. The only thing that stopped them was a generation of heros and the fact that long range weapons and aircraft were not available. We now have the latter but few of the former.

 

 

I also agree that Biden made a serious mistake in taking US troops off the table. That just leaves Putin free to absorb more territory.

Edited March 12, 2022 by cwericb

[Spekulatius]

I think Mearsheimer makes good points, including that Putin likely wills survive this. I do think he is wrong about sanctions though. The goal of the sanctions is not to overthrow the Russian government, it is to ruin their economy to such an extend that they are financially and economically not able any more to keep their military complex running. This alone will be a great benefit and make Russia much less dangerous.

 

The other lesson from history is that the sanctions  against Russia here are very likely to stay, even if a peace deal or some sort will occur.  There are direct investment implications for this because of you think we will be back to normal after some sort of truce will be reached, I think you are very wrong, at least based on how this has worked in the past,

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The other lesson from history is that the sanctions  against Russia here are very likely to stay, even if a peace deal or some sort will occur.  There are direct investment implications for this because of you think we will be back to normal after some sort of truce will be reached, I think you are very wrong, at least based on how this has worked in the past,

Yup. 100%. Which is why two bottles of good Russian vodka wasn’t enough. 28 might not be either. But the store didn’t have anymore. Anyone know where to get Cuban cigars? These things don’t go away. Ever really.

[changegonnacome]

20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

sanctions  against Russia here are very likely to stay, even if a peace deal or some sort will occur.  There are direct investment implications for this because of you think we will be back to normal after some sort of truce will be reached, I think you are very wrong, at least based on how this has worked in the past,

 

I somewhat agree - however what differentiates Russia from say Cuba/Iran/North Korea.....is what I referenced above, its place at the very top of the 'Great Power' table vis-à-vis its nuclear capability.........its not good risk management to leave a country with 6,000+ ballistic nuclear warheads so economically backed into a corner forever as it is now....& effectively barred from the international system (SWIFT / BIS etc.). To do so, I'm afraid, would be a mistake that would endanger us ALL over the long run and THIS above all else should be avoided at all costs. I don't like it one bit, but this is the reality and I hope the politicians are wise enough to know this........or put another way if Twitter polls decided world affairs I'm certain the human race would have been obliterated already by a thermonuclear catastrophe. Let's hope the politicians turn off Twitter, CNN, Instagram, Fox & focus groups when the real decisions need to be made. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Viking]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

@Viking I think in this discussion & in your comments above.....there is lots of idealism & wishful thinking (Russia losing war / Putin to be overthrown), the ideal Ukrainian soverignity & self-determintion,  there is also element of tribalism...in that everything 'we' do is good, what 'they' do is bad. Perhaps personally I have fierce contrarian bias that clouds my thinking too that acknowledge.

 

Below is a clip from a recent interview with John Mearsheimer......and his assessment chimes with my read of the situation...its pragmatic with not a shred of idealism.. ....I think his thinking is well reasoned & what we should all aspire to, as investors/thinkers, which is a detached realistic assessment of reality, based on historic evidence (sanctions) & game theory with an overlay of how in reality flimsy international "law" is in certain circumstances.

 

And for a definition of 'great power'........even in a declining state like Russia, with a tiny GDP & not that technologically advanced......the only requirement in our world to get into that great power group is to have pretty much any ballistic nuclear capability......and then a special place is reserved a the top of the great power group for those with a balisitic nuclear capability that can destroy the whole world (this group includes only two member the USA (5,500 warheads) & Russia (6257 warheads) with China way below with only 350 warheads. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons 

 

Like it or not Russia is great power........Putin/Russia literally controls the destruction of the whole planet & human race at his fingertips. 

 

When you strip away "society" and "law" there exists an undeniable third pillar of life.......the law of the jungle which sits below everything.....or as Mearsheimer says in the clip below "might equals right". It's not comforting to acknowledge this but it is the reality.

 

 

@changegonnacome i wish you would stop ‘paraphrasing’ what i have said previously because it is not accurate. Please debate what i say at the time i say it. Happy to do that. Because how do i debate what you say i said but that i did not say? 

‘Russia losing the war’ : yes, the war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia. They clearly mis-calculated. Are they losing the war? Probably not. But Ukraine’s response so far has been impressive and a surprise to me. Where do we go from here? No idea. Because i have no idea what Putin will do. And i have no idea how Ukraine will respond. 

‘putin to be overthrown’: not likely. But it makes sense to me the chances of this scenario have increased a little over the past month.

 

’the ideal Ukrainian soverignity & self-determintion’: their sovereignty amd right to self determination is based on the rule of international law. Laws are not ideals. 

 

‘tribalism...in that everything 'we' do is good, what 'they' do is bad‘: no idea where you got this conclusion from. I did say that what the US/West/Canada did in Iraq was a complete catastrophe. But don’t let what i actually say get in the way of what you think i say on an issue. If i am hard on Russia that does not mean i think everything ‘we’ do is good. But i understand that is how many people think these days.

 

‘clip from a recent interview with John Mearsheimer’: basically what Mearsheimer is saying is Russia is free to do whatever it wants (US and China as well). Ukraine today. The Baltic countries tomorrow. The former Soviet East block states after that. Might is right. Rule of law does not matter. He think the Ukrainian people and all the other countries either in the former Soviet Union or part of the East block should quit NATO and sue for peace with Russia IMMEDIATELY. Because the alternative, war with Russia, is not in their interest. Sounds rational. But i don’t think other countries in Europe (aligned with the West) are looking to sue for peace with Russia. Quite the opposite in fact… (The Vietnamese clearly were idiots to take on the US… according to Mearsheimer’s ‘logic’.)
 

 ‘Like it or not Russia is great power’: from i military perspective, i agree. It is no longer an economic power. And its economy looks looks like it will be contracting big time. 
 

‘the law of the jungle which sits below everything.....or as Mearsheimer says in the clip below "might equals right"’: i agree whole heartedly with the might part: Russia invading Ukraine was a pure exercise in power. Not complicated. But that does not make it right. Also not complicated. And that is why we are in the current catastrophe. Russia mis-calculated.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Viking

[Pelagic]

Political realists like Mearsheimer are a bit like value investors, forgotten until they're relevant again. Mearsheimer is a product of the Cold War where everything is framed in terms of hard power and the competing spheres of influence of two relatively equal great powers. Its an ideology that assumes rational actors and takes all analysis to its final conclusion  assuming as a given that the more powerful actor will prevail, often through simply threatening force, i.e the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now that a "great" power is involved in a dispute within their sphere of influence, realists get to be in the spotlight for a bit once again.

 

We're seeing though that either Ukraine said YOLO we will determine our own fate or that they reached a very different conclusion than Mearsheimer with regards to the extent of Russia's power. Perhaps they aren't strictly speaking rational actors and decided to gamble a bit that 2022's Russia has a limited ability to project power beyond their own border. Perhaps their experience fighting them for the last 8 years lead to this conclusion, I don't know. I simply think that the might makes right argument put forth by Mearsheimer and by extension the don't poke the bear argument completely ignores Ukraine's own ability to determine its fate. It also ignores the randomness associated with warfare, what ought to happen doesn't always happen. Wars are incredibly costly and even the most autocratic of regimes have limits to how much cost their populace is willing to tolerate. If Ukraine can continue what they've been doing for the last 3 weeks in making the war incredibly costly for Russia, they'll prevail.

 

There's speculation that post-war the $500B in frozen Russian foreign reserves will be utilized to rebuild Ukraine. And post-war, should it end on favorable terms for Ukraine, the door is wide open for Ukraine to join the west and completely break out of the Russian sphere of influence. A bit of a strategic gamble on Ukraine's part to not be more acquiescing to their regional hegemon but I don't think they share Mearsheimer's certainty that Russia's might will prevail.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

I guess it’s just perspective then. If I was in Ukraine, sitting around thinking and feeling isn’t going to do shit but make me mad and sad. Now what? Wait 10-15 years for a coin flip outcome and best case rebuild? No thanks. Lousy luck of the draw but the only real viable plan is move and start over. All these fake western helpers? Wanna really do something? Hold those funds. Allow these people fleeing in with open arms and then utilize those funds to give them a start. But that’s too practical. We rather virtue signal and send them the resources needed to die of a thousand paper cuts. 

[Pelagic]

The other alternative is wait 10-15 years and hope whoever replaces Putin isn't as committed to regional power, all the while making every decision with Russian foreign policy in mind. Still a coin flip.

 

100% agree though that those funds should be put to work now to assist refugees. And maybe incentivize defection among Russian soldiers with a bonus and path to citizenship in the EU.

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

i wish you would stop ‘paraphrasing’ what i have said previously because it is not accurate. Please debate what i say at the time i say it. Happy to do that. Because how do i debate what you say i said but that i did not say? 

 

My apologies at @Viking your correct on this. I'm both responding to you in my post but at the same time responding to a mixture of the message threads that are not yours. Conflating the two is imprecise and leaves ambiguity where I'm 'putting words in your mouth' so to speak. So totally agree on that & your right to call it out.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘Russia losing the war’ : yes, the war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia. They clearly mis-calculated. Are they losing the war? Probably not. But Ukraine’s response so far has been impressive and a surprise to me. Where do we go from here? No idea. Because i have no idea what Putin will do. And i have no idea how Ukraine will respond. 

 

Let's agree its too soon to call the war an unmitigated disaster for Russia, way too soon. For example do we know for certain the plan was to 'take Kiev' in three days? Nobody knows, so lets see. We also need to define what success would be for Russia in this, what are the strategic aims? Nobody knows for certain...but my opinion is that this was about NATO/EU encroachment and putting a stop to it. The question, which can only be answered after this war is over is the key one - in terms of whats left of Ukraine, is whats left more or less likely to be joining NATO/EU any time soon or not. If its more likely - Putin has lost. Less likely - Putin has won.

 

My point also, not directed at you but impreccily landing near you - was that simply like Putin's media tells his people Russia is performing great in the war......our media tells us what we want to hear......that the side we back is doing really well. I'm not saying this is not true but what I'm saying is we should be always mindful of media in any form that tells us things we might like to hear. Especially in conflicts with tribal overtones - East vs. West, Democrats vs. Republicans, Liberals vs. Conservatives. Remember were just monkeys with guns and money.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘putin to be overthrown’: not likely. But it makes sense to me the chances of this scenario have increased a little over the past month.

 

Agree the probability has risen........from impossible to basically impossible..........but also as per my line above........thinking about Putin err'ing and getting himself overthrown for 'messing' with the West pleases our tribal monkey brains such that we tell ourselves that. Its wishful thinking......which doesn't fully capture the reality that it remains highly highly unlikely an as I think Mearsheimar points out in some ways sanctions and ostracizing Russia stirs up feelings of nationalism and tribalism in Putin's own population....in some ways counter-acting whatever negatives might have led to his personal situation becoming more precarious.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

’the ideal Ukrainian soverignity & self-determintion’: their sovereignty amd right to self determination is based on the rule of international law. Laws are not ideals. 

 

Yes but laws are made by men, & are imperfect & enforced by power & they can be ignored or twisted when suited & the truly great powers hold the veto.......as Russia does on the UN Security Council as a permanent member (the others are China, France,the United Kingdom, and the United States). Technically Russia can never be sanctioned under the internaitonal  'law' you referened which is really just the UN & whatever resolutions or sanctions it can pass to punish the 'guilty'.......see Russia has a veto......ergo it cannot be 'found guilty' under International by the only body that enforces this law because it sits on the jury with a veto. So you see how imperfect our "International law" law is.....and why I speak about the law of the jungle behind it? I think few people realize this - they think international law is like the law in their own country. You break it, your found guilty, your punished. Not so in international law.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘tribalism...in that everything 'we' do is good, what 'they' do is bad‘: no idea where you got this conclusion from. I did say that what the US/West/Canada did in Iraq was a complete catastrophe. But don’t let what i actually say get in the way of what you think i say on an issue. If i am hard on Russia that does not mean i think everything ‘we’ do is good. But i understand that is how many people think these days.

 

Yep you nailed - I had in mind other peoples threads earlier in the messages and should have been clearer on that

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘clip from a recent interview with John Mearsheimer’: basically what Mearsheimer is saying is Russia is free to do whatever it wants (US and China as well). Ukraine today. The Baltic countries tomorrow. The former Soviet East block states after that. Might is right. Rule of law does not matter. He think the Ukrainian people and all the other countries either in the former Soviet Union or part of the East block should quit NATO and sue for peace with Russia IMMEDIATELY. Because the alternative, war with Russia, is not in their interest. Sounds rational. But i don’t think other countries in Europe (aligned with the West) are looking to sue for peace with Russia. Quite the opposite in fact… (The Vietnamese clearly were idiots to take on the US… according to Mearsheimer’s ‘logic’.)

 

I think what he's saying is that in some YES the great powers can do what they want, to an extent, but just not in other great powers spheres of influence such that they create existential fears for each other. The international system or rule of law exists but it is enforced by the great powers fundamentally and when it doesn't suit them they ignore it - because they hold a strange dual role as both policeman and perpetrator.......as I just outlined given the FIVE permanent member of the UN Security Council with VETO power. Russia, China, France,the United Kingdom, and the United States - depending on whats happening can be simultaneously the perpetrator, the policeman, the judge and jury. THIS is international law & you can see how imperfect it is and why the law of the jungle sits underneath.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘Like it or not Russia is great power’: from i military perspective, i agree. It is no longer an economic power. And its economy looks looks like it will be contracting big time. 

 

Yes it is - a man or country who hold the very destruction of the planet & human civilization at his fingertips has a power never wielded before in human history. Russia might be 50 -100 years behind the West economically but on this point there is no ambiguity - it is an 800ilb gorilla.

 

3 hours ago, Viking said:

‘the law of the jungle which sits below everything.....or as Mearsheimer says in the clip below "might equals right"’: i agree whole heartedly with the might part: Russia invading Ukraine was a pure exercise in power. Not complicated. But that does not make it right. Also not complicated. And that is why we are in the current catastrophe. Russia mis-calculated.

 

I think what Mearsheimer means is that international law as we think of it is kind of fallacy and nebulous concept. Its made by great powers and enforced by consensus of great powers - as I've outlined above with its contradictory issues of veto power at UN  etc...........this makes it so that right or wrong such that transgressions between Great powers can be punished by somebody doesn't exist in reality or practice for the permanent members of the UN secruity council ...............for example we all think on this board & agree that what Putin did was mortally wrong and breaks international law on sovereignty as written down........SO if thats the case @Viking.......show me the charges & the guilty verdict handed down by the only arbiter of international law that exists today in the International law system - the UN? There isn't one because the Great Powers have made it so that they can never be truly "found guilty" by the enforcement body of that the law, the UN. So you can see - might equals right...........in the sense that the mighty (the FIVE) can never be found 'wrong' under international law as constructed today.

Edited March 13, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

^excellent points. 
 

I would actually be really interested in seeing what the Russian media is doing and how they are framing all this. If nothing else, we all know how the garbage gets rearranged here, but it would be fascinating to see the other side of things. Wars, more than most other events, while ongoing, are really, really easy to shape. There’s always photos or people who you can go to in order to shape whatever narrative it is you’re looking to shape.