Short Taiwan?

[Spekulatius]

56 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^ Huh - Iran not expansionist?? Tell that to Lebanon and Iraq. Iran's playbook for years is to control their neighbors.

 

Russia obliterates Chechnya, then Crimea, now Ukraine - yeah - sure they're not expansionist...

 

 

I think it is important to note that  Iraq attacked Iran and not the other way around.  I don't think they are that expansionists either, but they do sponsor terrorism (Syria, Lebanon to exert influence ). The Iran sees themselves surrounded by enemies (US, Iraq, Israel, Saudis), even the Russians. They see having nuke as an insurance policy. I believe most of their actions are more defensive than offensive by intent.

 

Not that I think the hardline Mullahs are nice guys, but i think there are a lot of people underneath them that can be reasoned with.

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, boilermaker75 said:

You don't think there are a lot of ruthless people around Putin who he is causing much angst?

Of course I do - but there is I’m afraid an element of wishful thinking when people believe Putin to be in mortal jeopardy and I think they skew the probabilities in their own mind when thinking about it

[CorpRaider]

He's skewing those 35 foot tables away from his comrades all on his own homie.  

Edited March 4, 2022 by CorpRaider

[boilermaker75]

15 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

He's skewing those 35 foot tables away from his comrades all on his own homie.  

 

He is definitely paranoid about something,

[CorpRaider]

Probably that poison they were misting those guys in London with.

Edited March 4, 2022 by CorpRaider

[boilermaker75]

17 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

Probably that poison they were misting those guys in London with.

 

I wonder if he checks his food with a Geiger counter?

[CorpRaider]

haha, too slow.  Problem with him is he can't step down like Gorbachev or Yestsin.  He's going down hard.  Could be cool if Russia comes back from him, they have a lot of talent and natural resources.

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think it is important to note that  Iraq attacked Iran and not the other way around.  I don't think they are that expansionists either, but they do sponsor terrorism (Syria, Lebanon to exert influence ). The Iran sees themselves surrounded by enemies (US, Iraq, Israel, Saudis), even the Russians. They see having nuke as an insurance policy. I believe most of their actions are more defensive than offensive by intent.

When the Iranian Mullahs say over and over again "Iran is dedicated to the destruction of Israel" - I think they

mean it. Period. It's not a joke and not bluster. And, of course, all Israel wants is for Hezbollah & their proxies

to stop lobbying missiles into Israel. Doesn't seem too much to ask.

 

Iraq attacked Iran 40 years ago. Sadaam is long gone. Iranian mullahs are terrorists and trouble makers.

They hate the Arabs - and will do everything they can to expand the Persian empire. So far, they've done

a great job in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.  The Saudi's are terrified of these guys - hence - their new best

friend is Israel. There is not a country in the Middle East more expansionist minded than Iran.

 

 

No one wants to threaten Iran unless they decide to behave. The Israelis' want peace more than anyone.

 

I feel sorry for the Iranian people. I've met plenty of Persians - but the religious idiots running the country 

have been out of control for years.

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

haha, too slow.  Problem with him is he can't step down like Gorbachev or Yestsin.  He's going down hard.  Could be cool if Russia comes back from him, they have a lot of talent and natural resources.

I don't think it's a long shot that Putin can be taken out.

Hell, this whole ordeal is backfiring on the Russian gangsters

around him - and the mafia might take him out if they can get to him.

Edited March 4, 2022 by cubsfan

[boilermaker75]

7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

I don't think it's a long shot that Putin can be taken out.

Hell, this whole ordeal is backfiring on the Russian gangsters

around him - and the mafia might take him out if they can get to him.

 

I also don't think it is a long shot. It likely may be the way this ends. Those Russian gangsters are as ruthless as Putin. And if someone takes him out what would everyone else in the room do. Probably just move on.

[Castanza]

17 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

haha, too slow.  Problem with him is he can't step down like Gorbachev or Yestsin.  He's going down hard.  Could be cool if Russia comes back from him, they have a lot of talent and natural resources.

Problem is that their government has so much corruption. Would they even get a fair election? There are going to be a lot of people salivating for that power seat. 

[Spekulatius]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/ukraines-lessons-for-taiwan/

[Spekulatius]

This gets criticized right now, but was absolutely the right statement to make, imo:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/biden-says-us-willing-to-use-force-to-defend-taiwan.html

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This gets criticized right now, but was absolutely the right statement to make, imo:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/biden-says-us-willing-to-use-force-to-defend-taiwan.html

This is a bit odd. I am wondering if CIA have some sort of concrete intelligence about Xi’s plan and therefore Biden is aggressive warning

 

[Sweet]

I don’t think it requires any insight to China or their plans.

 

Simply that showing weakness invites aggression.

 

Whether the US would defend Taiwan or not is besides the point - it was the right thing to regardless.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

This is a bit odd. I am wondering if CIA have some sort of concrete intelligence about Xi’s plan and therefore Biden is aggressive warning

 

I don’t think there is specific evidence, it’s more a reaction to the events in Ukraine and meant to remove ambiguity about the US reaction if China gets too enterprising towards Taiwan.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Spekulatius

[tlm]

On 2/25/2022 at 11:15 PM, NewbieD said:

To me it seems likely that China will attack Taiwan in the next couple of years. 

What would be some ways to implement a trade on this? Unfortunately my broker has nothing on e.g. TSMC or any of their bigger stocks. 

Are there any US companies that would be badly hurt if this happens?

Apple would be severely hurt by this. Personally I would never short. But should an invasion occur then Apple would suffer greatly. Apple accounts for around 25% of TSMCs revenue. They are very reliant on TSMC. After moving away from Samsung many years ago (now also moved away from Intel for computers) and now that TSMC has the lead, Apple would have to go to Intel or Samsung and in doing so would take a step backwards in performance. Not to mention the lead time to get production going. Also from memory Samsung leading edge nodes don’t have the best yields. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by tlm

[Spekulatius]

54 minutes ago, tlm said:

Apple would be severely hurt by this. Personally I would never short. But should an invasion occur then Apple would suffer greatly. Apple accounts for around 25% of TSMCs revenue. They are very reliant on TSMC. After moving away from Samsung many years ago (now also moved away from Intel for computers) and now that TSMC has the lead, Apple would have to go to Intel or Samsung and in doing so would take a step backwards in performance. Not to mention the lead time to get production going. Also from memory Samsung leading edge nodes don’t have the best yields. 

Apple, NVDA, AMD come to mind. NVDA and AMD might be close to zeros actually - where would they get their chips made? Apple would be more than 50% off, but might somehow manage it.

[rkbabang]

27 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Apple, NVDA, AMD come to mind. NVDA and AMD might be close to zeros actually - where would they get their chips made? Apple would be more than 50% off, but might somehow manage it.

 

Not just those companies, but the entire semiconductor industry would be completely devastated, losing Taiwan is just unthinkable.  If you bring down the semiconductor industry almost all of the modern economy comes down with it.  I don't think it is much of an exaggeration to say that this is the Achilles heel of our entire modern way of life.

[boilermaker75]

13 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Not just those companies, but the entire semiconductor industry would be completely devastated, losing Taiwan is just unthinkable.  If you bring down the semiconductor industry almost all of the modern economy comes down with it.  I don't think it is much of an exaggeration to say that this is the Achilles heel of our entire modern way of life.

 

I never understood how we let it get this way. When I worked at INTC in the mid-seventies there had to be a couple of dozen chip manufacturers. It didn't get the name silicon valley for nothing. INTC, Fairchild, Siliconix, AMI, AMD, MOSTEK, MOS Technology, Intersil, National Semiconductor, Interdesign, IMI, MMI, Signetics, Zilog, etc.

[rkbabang]

24 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

I never understood how we let it get this way. When I worked at INTC in the mid-seventies there had to be a couple of dozen chip manufacturers. It didn't get the name silicon valley for nothing. INTC, Fairchild, Siliconix, AMI, AMD, MOSTEK, MOS Technology, Intersil, National Semiconductor, Interdesign, IMI, MMI, Signetics, Zilog, etc.

 

 

I know.  I work in the industry myself and we talk about this from time to time. How could this happen? Our whole industry depends in a large part on manufacturing in one small island nation that is in this precarious situation between it and China.  It just isn't good.  The problem is that TSMC is just such a great company.   We keep trying to diversify, but it is hard to do when TSMC's competitors just aren't as good in so many ways: cost, quality, dependability, capacity, technology, etc.....

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by rkbabang

[Ulti]

14 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

Our whole industry depends in a large part on manufacturing in one small island nation that is in this precarious situation between it and China.  It just isn't good.

Sounds like Russian energy and Europe

[tlm]

7 hours ago, Ulti said:

Sounds like Russian energy and Europe

It’s actually much worse. Oil is all the same not matter where it comes from. Chips are not. TSMC is so big nations can’t even compete. The US passed the chips act with $50 B in incentives and TSMC spent $40B in CapEx in 2022 for expansion. 

[tlm]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Apple, NVDA, AMD come to mind. NVDA and AMD might be close to zeros actually - where would they get their chips made? Apple would be more than 50% off, but might somehow manage it.

They would be forced to use Samsung or Intel. But I’m doing so the tech would go backwards for some years before it court up with where it is now. It was very interesting that Apple moved away from Intel in favour of the M1 chip made by TSMC. They have put all their eggs in one basket. I would say they don’t feel like an invasion is extremely likely.
 

On a side note question is the claim on Taiwan reasonable. Personally, I think it is but in saying that I don’t believe it should be done with force either. Post WW2 Taiwan was placed in the control on China as Japan held it from 1895. This was backed by the US and UK. In 1949 ROC fled to Taiwan to evade the RPC after it won the civil war. Putting aside my preference to democracy it doesn’t make a judgement different based on preference. 
 

The One China policy states that both the ROC and PRC both agree Taiwan is part of China but neither party agrees to which party rules. 
 

Clearly the US and allies don’t want to loose Taiwan to China now it is so important (Chips and strategic location) to the allies. But does that make it ok for us to impose our will. I don’t believe it does. 

[tlm]

7 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

I know.  I work in the industry myself and we talk about this from time to time. How could this happen? Our whole industry depends in a large part on manufacturing in one small island nation that is in this precarious situation between it and China.  It just isn't good.  The problem is that TSMC is just such a great company.   We keep trying to diversify, but it is hard to do when TSMC's competitors just aren't as good in so many ways: cost, quality, dependability, capacity, technology, etc.....

 

I was reading something from TSMC where they stated that their margins are 50% more outside the US. That’s a massive amount that clearly shows the US is not going to be competitive. If TSMC is not around then it probably doesn’t matter. But eventual these economic tailwinds will be utilised by another to once again overtake the US I believe.