Have We Hit The Top?

[Gregmal]

One of my best friends families was from England. Dad worked for Paribas. Mother a nurse. They came here after living in Chile for a bit. Took them 9 years, and over $150,000 to legally get citizenship. This doesn’t include the hours spent having to take US history exams and such. Imagine the rage if we asked folks to endure 1/10 of this? They whine about even having to get a valid ID. And it’s all allowed by certain parts of the establishment.

Edited February 6 by Gregmal

[gfp]

15 minutes ago, Sweet said:

What’s this got to do with the top though?

It's my fault.  I was foolish enough to point out that in-migration is a positive for the national economy when we were discussing inflation.  Didn't think it was up for debate.  Think again!

 

THESE IMMIGRANTS ARE DIFFERENT!  WE ONLY WANT THE GOOD ONES!

 

Back to fretting about a wage spiral I guess

[cubsfan]

It's a shame. There is a point where you'd like to keep the culture the US has, largely intact.

So I guess US citizens have no say in retaining the culture they built??

 

Currently, France has massive social problems because of unchecked immigration.

You can be sure the average French citizen regrets a lot about what happening.

 

But we're not supposed to care here??

 

 

[Santayana]

It's amazing we can all have such different experiences re: inflation.  At least where I am, there is absolutely no sign of it slowing down, whether talking about personal expenditures or things I purchase for my business. 

[gfp]

21 minutes ago, Santayana said:

It's amazing we can all have such different experiences re: inflation.  At least where I am, there is absolutely no sign of it slowing down, whether talking about personal expenditures or things I purchase for my business. 

 

Interesting.  So what specifically is up in price?  And is this recent price increases or just "it never went back to pre-covid" type stuff?  Because inflation in the United States in the last 6 months is at or below the target.  They don't want it to be zero.

[Gregmal]

Just now, gfp said:

Because inflation in the United States in the last 6 months is at or below the target.  They don't want it to be zero.

This is just more of the insanity. What in the world are these people making the policies smoking that they think such micro specifics are important like this. Not more than 2% but above 0? We for sure would have charlatans screaming about -0.5% a “deflation” in progress and we ve already heard “3% is massively, massively, 50% above target”….when the majority of it all is just inconsequential and irrelevant fluctuations that in isolation make cool story bits.

[changegonnacome]

5 hours ago, cubsfan said:

It's a shame. There is a point where you'd like to keep the culture the US has, largely intact.

So I guess US citizens have no say in retaining the culture they built??

 

Culture - I mean at its core the US culture is an immigrant culture - one ultimately ever evolving shaped by successive waves of immigration since its founding but underpinned by an idea - all men are created equal, individual liberty etc. etc.

 

The US 'culture', the US nation - the thing that makes it different from every other nation state or kingdom that's practically ever existed ever - is that its based not on tribalism ( which is a derivative of DNA/ethnicity) or based on some religious fanaticism - but rather its based on an idea......the idea of individual liberty, freedom & the pursuit of happiness 

 

What makes America dynamic.... is its very lack of reverence for the past...for old cultures, stale ideas...its unwillingness to "keep" a static US culture....America's ability to reinvent itself is its secret sauce I would posit....and that re-invention is no small part driven by the immigrant culture and the drive to reinvent oneself that immigrants have in abundance....to drive forward, to do things differently, boldy, take risks and ignore the old ways of doing things.

 

Tinkering with this uniquencess IMO is akin to Coke suggesting they should tweak the recipe.....immigration is the USA's secret recipe.

 

Edited February 6 by changegonnacome

[Sweet]

4 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Culture - I mean at its core the US culture is an immigrant culture - one ultimately ever evolving shaped by successive waves of immigration since its founding but underpinned by an idea - all men are created equal, individual liberty etc. etc.

 

The US 'culture', the US nation - the thing that makes it different from every other nation state or kingdom that's practically ever existed ever - is that its based not on tribalism ( which is a derivative of DNA/ethnicity) or based on some religious fanaticism - but rather its based on an idea......the idea of individual liberty, freedom & the pursuit of happiness 

 

What makes America dynamic.... is its very lack of reverence for the past...for old cultures, stale ideas...its unwillingness to "keep" a static US culture....America's ability to reinvent itself is its secret sauce I would posit....and that re-invention is no small part driven by the immigrant culture and the drive to reinvent oneself that immigrants have in abundance....to drive forward, to do things differently, boldy, take risks and ignore the old ways of doing things.

 

Tinkering with this uniquencess IMO is akin to Coke suggesting they should tweak the recipe.....immigration is the USA's secret recipe.

 

Immigration to the US was a lot more restrictive than you seem to realise.  Originally nearly all migrants came from the British isles.  Then it was ‘white person’ for a time.  There were at times quotas, such as those placed on Germans.  And even outright bans of certain ethnic groups - Asians were prohibited.

[mattee2264]

American Dream was that you could come to America, work hard, and have a better life. And the country was vast and underpopulated and industrializing so lots of opportunities. 

 

Now the only industry making any money is technology and they are laying off staff left right and centre and trying to replace with their own AI technologies. 

 

And most of the new jobs being created are in government as they've embraced deficit spending and are very motivated to keep unemployment low to get Biden re-elected. And most jobs these days are part-time. 

 

You can understand the motivation to create a welfare state with a huge population of people dependent on government benefits who will vote for governments who keep the benefits flowing to them. But hardly good for the long run future of America. 

 

 

 

[gfp]

1 hour ago, mattee2264 said:

American Dream was that you could come to America, work hard, and have a better life. And the country was vast and underpopulated and industrializing so lots of opportunities. 

 

Now the only industry making any money is technology and they are laying off staff left right and centre and trying to replace with their own AI technologies. 

 

And most of the new jobs being created are in government as they've embraced deficit spending and are very motivated to keep unemployment low to get Biden re-elected. And most jobs these days are part-time. 

 

You can understand the motivation to create a welfare state with a huge population of people dependent on government benefits who will vote for governments who keep the benefits flowing to them. But hardly good for the long run future of America. 

 

 

 

 

Apologies in advance for continuing this thread another day.  I do think the "American Dream" is still alive and well for the $20-$30 per hour cash construction worker, painter, etc...  There is plenty of full time work available at those wages as a minimum and they often work on Saturday and Sunday as well (not as often on Sundays, there are still church services, quinceaneras and futbol games after all).  $25 an hour full time for 6 days a week is $1200 per week for what many mistakenly term "unskilled."  (This is a nit pick of mine because I'm tired of carpenters being described as unskilled labor by useless idiots - "okay philosophy professor, build me a staircase").  If the husband earns $1200/week and the wife cleans houses & paints on the side it is change-your-life and your family back home's life type of money.

Edited February 6 by gfp

[cubsfan]

Immigration is a wonderful thing - when it's meritocratic, legal and controlled - not out of control.

No one hates immigrants or their contributions. Currently, the notion of US citizenship is being destroyed - whereby its citizens have no say in who comes here. The cultural melting pot worked because immigrants assimilated into American ideals, obeyed it's laws and earned their citizenship. That no longer exists. As far as the American Dream - when your cities, schools, hospitals, parks are overrun, overburdened and crime filled - the country has turned it's back on her Citizens.

Edited February 6 by cubsfan

[gfp]

26 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

when your cities, schools, hospitals, parks are overrun, overburdened and crime filled - the country has turned it's back on her Citizens.

 

It must be very different in American cities other than the one I live in.  I don't see parks full of immigrants or immigrants committing crimes at rates even close to the rates of poor native-born Americans.  I see homeless people that are almost 100% native born Americans, a mix of older military vetrans and mentally ill and young people that made bad choices or had awful luck or both.  The folks living on the park bench and in tent cities where I am are not recent immigrants, they are native born Americans.  The immigrants are at work making $200 per day, remitting $100 of it back to family and showing up at 7am the next morning to do it again.

 

Armed robberies, auto theft, shootings, homicides - all committed by native born poor people in my city.

 

It's like parallel realities.  I see immigrants afraid they will be robbed by poor violent locals and you guys are acting like these are cartel members coming across with their children by the thousands.  Cartel members can come into the united states whenever they want.  Closing the border will not restrict the movement of cartel members.  Crossing borders is literally their specialty.

[cubsfan]

^^^ 100,000 Americans a year, mostly young, die from Fentynal poisoning. Most of these illegal immigrants are victims of rape and child traffickers (cartels). So let's keep enriching the cartels - shall we?  Keep the open border, all your Fentanyl comes from China via Mexican Cartel labs, and keep the child traffickers coming. That's a great solution.

 

And I said - the biggest victims of the uncontrolled immigration are the poor and middle class (blacks & hispanics). You made my point.

 

And of course, you make the case for the huge demand for social services needed in this country: crime control, mental illness, homelessness, veteran's services, better schools, etc.

 

But let's divert all that potential funding for illegal immigrants.

 

You don't live in Chicago, LA, SF, Central Valley of California, NY, etc, etc. The mayors and Al Sharpton, etc - couldn't be more clear about the problem.

 

And what you complete dismiss: Trump closed the border in about 60 days. It was simple and worked brilliantly. All the naysayers said it couldn't be done, walls don't work, etc - all that was nonsense and proved wrong.

[thowed]

15 hours ago, Sweet said:

Should we just let anyone in?  I doubt the board would say yes.  So there should be rules and a process to migration - so figure out what a large majority agree on and work from there.

 

What is certainly not ok is to just allow millions of people to ignore all those rules, break the law by entering illegally, and skip in front of those who have the decency to go down the proper legal avenues.

 

What’s this got to do with the top though?  Unless some are predicting the end of America?

 

This is the sensible post I would have like to have written, instead of just being facetious.

[mattee2264]

It probably does have something to do with the top. 

 

A major factor in the resilience of the US economy is unprecedented deficit spending. That can continue to be justified if there is a large influx of immigrants who wind up on benefits. Perhaps at some point tax rates will go up but for now the USA does not have to balance the books because the USD is the global reserve currency.

 

 

[Santayana]

16 hours ago, gfp said:

Interesting.  So what specifically is up in price?  And is this recent price increases or just "it never went back to pre-covid" type stuff?  Because inflation in the United States in the last 6 months is at or below the target.  They don't want it to be zero.

Food, household goods, car insurance, utilities, entertainment, business supplies, shipping costs, rents, property taxes...and much more are all continuing to get more expensive.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, mattee2264 said:

It probably does have something to do with the top. 

 

A major factor in the resilience of the US economy is unprecedented deficit spending. That can continue to be justified if there is a large influx of immigrants who wind up on benefits. Perhaps at some point tax rates will go up but for now the USA does not have to balance the books because the USD is the global reserve currency.

 

 

Deficit spending probably can’t continue if rates remains high either, new debt will be a much more expensive.  They need to get it below GDP growth and keep it there for a while.

 

 

Edited February 6 by Sweet

[LC]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ 100,000 Americans a year, mostly young, die from Fentynal poisoning. Most of these illegal immigrants are victims of rape and child traffickers (cartels). So let's keep enriching the cartels - shall we?  Keep the open border, all your Fentanyl comes from China via Mexican Cartel labs, and keep the child traffickers coming. That's a great solution.

 

 

So, what is the solution?

War on drugs? Build a wall? Efforts to constrain the supply side are 0-for-2.

 

It may be time to look at trying to reduce demand for the product.

What drives people to drug use, what can we do to limit that? 

 

I'd argue the stuff I see posted around: "Late stage capitalism" "The American Dream is Dead" The massive wealth gap, homelessness everywhere...

 

The chances of upward mobility for a teenager/20-year-old grow smaller and smaller. This leads to hopelessness, depression, and drug use. This is what we should focus on. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ I can't argue with anything you say. But an open border is certainly not a solution to the drug trade. Why in the world would you just give up and make it easier for Mexican cartels?

 

100,000 deaths a year is a catastrophe. Shit we only lost 7000 in decades of war in Iraq/Afghanistan.

[Longnose]

57 minutes ago, LC said:

 

So, what is the solution?

 

 

 

JK, JK, i don't actually wanna be like Singapore.  But after visiting there may be some middle ground. 

[rohitc99]

19 hours ago, Gregmal said:

One of my best friends families was from England. Dad worked for Paribas. Mother a nurse. They came here after living in Chile for a bit. Took them 9 years, and over $150,000 to legally get citizenship. This doesn’t include the hours spent having to take US history exams and such. Imagine the rage if we asked folks to endure 1/10 of this? They whine about even having to get a valid ID. And it’s all allowed by certain parts of the establishment.

+1 same here. and after spending 10s of thousands i cannot even get my 80 year old mother to visit me. The immigration system had me recertify my birth certificates and a bunch of documents. WTF !! will an 80+ year work illegally when she can barely walk? and i have given signed under oath that i will bear all her medical and other costs and still they keep dragging on

Edited February 6 by rohitc99

[Dinar]

9 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Apologies in advance for continuing this thread another day.  I do think the "American Dream" is still alive and well for the $20-$30 per hour cash construction worker, painter, etc...  There is plenty of full time work available at those wages as a minimum and they often work on Saturday and Sunday as well (not as often on Sundays, there are still church services, quinceaneras and futbol games after all).  $25 an hour full time for 6 days a week is $1200 per week for what many mistakenly term "unskilled."  (This is a nit pick of mine because I'm tired of carpenters being described as unskilled labor by useless idiots - "okay philosophy professor, build me a staircase").  If the husband earns $1200/week and the wife cleans houses & paints on the side it is change-your-life and your family back home's life type of money.

So how many millions of cleaning ladies and construction workers can the country absorb?  A million a year?  Two, three?  

[mattee2264]

People get confused between the price level and inflation.

 

Prices have gone up at least 20-30% since before COVID. Probably more in certain categories. If all the inflation was just the result of supply chain disruptions then prices should have gone back down. 

 

But while companies were quick to pass on cost increases to consumers they haven't lowered prices once input costs started to come back down. Helped in part because the economy has been strong and unemployment low thanks to fiscal largesse. 

 

So I can understand why a lot of people are still complaining about inflation even as inflation rates have come back down into the low single digits. 

 

Obviously if you own stocks your wealth has doubled since the pandemic which makes paying 20-30% more for groceries, entertainment, restaurant meals, holidays etc a small price to pay.

 

But for the common man they've been stuck with much higher rents, much higher prices of basic necessities like groceries, and their credit card interest has gone through the roof and they are understandably miserable.

 

 

[Dinar]

5 hours ago, LC said:

 

So, what is the solution?

War on drugs? Build a wall? Efforts to constrain the supply side are 0-for-2.

 

It may be time to look at trying to reduce demand for the product.

What drives people to drug use, what can we do to limit that? 

 

I'd argue the stuff I see posted around: "Late stage capitalism" "The American Dream is Dead" The massive wealth gap, homelessness everywhere...

 

The chances of upward mobility for a teenager/20-year-old grow smaller and smaller. This leads to hopelessness, depression, and drug use. This is what we should focus on. 

I agree.  I would suggest vocational schools for many, so that they can learn trades and make hundreds of thousands a year, and very strict immigration restrictions.  

[Gregmal]

You folks need to visit Florida for a primer on both successful immigrant integration, as well as the productivity benefits of “the good kind” of immigrants. Go to Miami and talk to the Guatemalan, Cuban, Venezuelan immigrants. Then ask them what they think of the folks coming over the border from Mexico.