Leaving New York City

[Gregmal]

I mean sans the 20-30 year old crowd, and maybe the immature Peter Pan 30+ craft beer Brooklyn crowd, and then the 1% ers who own multiple homes or can at least afford to, how is Vegas, South FL, parts of Texas, Reno, Raleigh, Charlotte, Virginia, heck even Massachusetts suburbs not more attractive?
 

I don’t know any parents who like restaurants so much that they willingly choose to place dining out as a higher priory than their kids educations. Or athletics? Like oh hey Johnny, why don’t you run down to Washington Square Park and make friends with a gangbanger and a hypodermic needle lol. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

End of the day, office drives NYC. When office starts recovering, then we can look at it.

[LC]

Hey I really don't know. And I was a 20 something that bounced rather than pay 1M for a half-shitbox, so I get your point.

 

That said - NYC can reinvent itself very quickly. The city's pace is very quick. 

 

You're right that the homelessness and the bullshit policies and politics are a problem. But those are temporary problems, not structural. WFH yeah is a structural problem. But I think that can just as easily bring folks back to a revitalized NYC as quickly as it drove them away. 

 

I own Clipper and Aimco, in about equal weights.

[Gregmal]

My biggest concerns there are pro crime, pro tax the wealthy(their lifeblood), and just generally continuing to be horrifically anti business. All those things are getting worse, not better. 

[dwy000]

21 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

For who though? My understanding is that the migration and demographic shift is not occurring in the 20-30 or 30-40 never grow uppers, but everywhere else. Who either wants to, or properly can afford to raise a family there? Sending your kid to even “decent school in NYC requires private education and that’s $50k a year. Who’s retiring there?
 

The strength is obviously the young folks. But WFH challenges that. And outside of that? There’s not much other than trophy homes for the top 1% and then shitboxes for 25 year olds looking to fuck. 

But that's what it has been for 50 years and likely will continue to be.  Young people move in trying to make it big, then 20 years later they move out and a new crew moves in.  It's the same in London.

 

I lived there for 12 years until I got married and had a kid and then moved to something more appropriate.  All the things I care about now from schools to taxes to having a large master bedroom was completely irrelevant in NYC.  At the time those were "old people" problems. We wanted to work our asses off, make a ton of money, get laid and have fun. That's NYC.

[dwy000]

29 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I mean sans the 20-30 year old crowd, and maybe the immature Peter Pan 30+ craft beer Brooklyn crowd, and then the 1% ers who own multiple homes or can at least afford to, how is Vegas, South FL, parts of Texas, Reno, Raleigh, Charlotte, Virginia, heck even Massachusetts suburbs not more attractive?
 

I don’t know any parents who like restaurants so much that they willingly choose to place dining out as a higher priory than their kids educations. Or athletics? Like oh hey Johnny, why don’t you run down to Washington Square Park and make friends with a gangbanger and a hypodermic needle lol. 

Crime wise it is WAY better than almost any point in the past 50 years. Of course there's drugs and homeless etc but you're gonna get that in a city with 18mn people.  There isn't a city without it.  But NYC is also the center of the world for finance, art, theater, advertising, sports etc.  That's the attraction.  All the great things about Florida, Charlotte, Reno etc are what you look for AFTER you leave NYC.  Or where you go for a week to relax.  Nobody goes to NYC to relax or get the early bird special at TGIFriday. That's the appeal when you're young. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by dwy000

[Gregmal]

I get that aspect. I loved it too. Missed my first job interview out of college cuz we got toasted at Webster Hall, missed the train, stumbled probably 3 dozen drinks in around the city for a few hours and had pizza for breakfast at 6 am before getting to Hoboken. 
 

But what drives wealthy young 20-30 year olds? Office jobs. 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

Crime wise it is WAY better than almost any point in the past 50 years. Of course there's drugs and homeless etc but you're gonna get that in a city with 18mn people.  There isn't a city without it.  But NYC is also the center of the world for finance, art, theater, advertising, sports etc.  That's the attraction.  All the great things about Florida, Charlotte, Reno etc are what you look for AFTER you leave NYC.  Or where you go for a week to relax.  Nobody goes to NYC to relax or get the early bird special at TGIFriday. That's the appeal when you're young. 

You cannot be serious.   Crime is way worse than it was for a 15 year period between 1999 and 2014.   You may come up with statistics, but when police downgrade crime, prosecutors don't indict, and criminals do not go to jail, what's the point of reporting a crime?   

[dwy000]

42 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You cannot be serious.   Crime is way worse than it was for a 15 year period between 1999 and 2014.   You may come up with statistics, but when police downgrade crime, prosecutors don't indict, and criminals do not go to jail, what's the point of reporting a crime?   

I'm not sure how you compare if you don't use statistics.

 

Certainly homicides dont go underreported (you would hope).  From the latest comparable stats (2021), NYC's homicide rate of 5.8 murders per 100,000 residents is way, way less than other large cities: Chicago (30), Houston (20), Miami (10.7), Oklahoma City (12), LA (10).  Property crimes were 757 vs Miami at 3,716.

These could all be worse now than 2021 of course.

 

I think NYC feels worse because of how dense it is.  Other cities have violent pockets and you can pretty much live in that city without ever feeling unsafe but in NY it's so dense it's harder to avoid even though its safter.  

 

 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

I'm not sure how you compare if you don't use statistics.

 

Certainly homicides dont go underreported (you would hope).  From the latest comparable stats (2021), NYC's homicide rate of 5.8 murders per 100,000 residents is way, way less than other large cities: Chicago (30), Houston (20), Miami (10.7), Oklahoma City (12), LA (10).  Property crimes were 757 vs Miami at 3,716.

These could all be worse now than 2021 of course.

 

I think NYC feels worse because of how dense it is.  Other cities have violent pockets and you can pretty much live in that city without ever feeling unsafe but in NY it's so dense it's harder to avoid even though its safter.  

 

 

You said that NYC today is essentially the safest that it has been in the past 50 fifty years.  I disagreed with you, so what does crime in Chicago have to do with this?  Compare crime in NYC today versus 2013, or 2010.

[Gregmal]

I mean you cant really operate fluidly as a business when hot dogs and ice cream displays need locks on them. Corporations still value having an NYC office, but not to the same degree they once did, especially in terms of size and grandeur. 

 

I mean its been startling, even with something is fundamentally iconic and part of what makes NYC great as MSG....just how much nonsense these politicians are putting the company through for ZERO reason! Harassment for facial identity security software. Refusing an operating permit. Refusing to pay them for land they own. Demanding the company itself pay for public things. If thats how you treat your top talent so to speak, imagine being an aspiring entrepreneur? Like why would you start a business there knowing you're getting robbed on taxes. Gonna have to go through a horrendous business permitting and approval process due to the system. Safety isnt even something they care about anymore. At the end of the day the politicians and authority figures seem to have the exact same attitude as the NY Rulz Bruh! folks...like they matter of factly state "NY is awesome" like its a mic drop and expect everyone to just agree, and bow, and jump through hoops because "NY is so great"...and more and more, from corporations, to small businesses, to just normal(non homeless) people...we are seeing them just say "nah" because the mix in other places is way more favorable when all else is factored in. 

 

When I invest, I like long and hard to disrupt tailwinds. Here you have the opposite. It probably changes again one day, thats how cycles work, and I'll be there to jump in when it does, but I gotta put food on the table and the investment case here is poor. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by Gregmal

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I mean you cant really operate fluidly as a business when hot dogs and ice cream displays need locks on them. Corporations still value having an NYC office, but not to the same degree they once did, especially in terms of size and grandeur. 

 

I mean its been startling, even with something is fundamentally iconic and part of what makes NYC great as MSG....just how much nonsense these politicians are putting the company through for ZERO reason! Harassment for facial identity security software. Refusing an operating permit. Refusing to pay them for land they own. Demanding the company itself pay for public things. If thats how you treat your top talent so to speak, imagine being an aspiring entrepreneur? Like why would you start a business there knowing you're getting robbed on taxes. Gonna have to go through a horrendous business permitting and approval process due to the system. Safety isnt even something they care about anymore. At the end of the day the politicians and authority figures seem to have the exact same attitude as the NY Rulz Bruh! folks...like they matter of factly state "NY is awesome" like its a mic drop and expect everyone to just agree, and bow, and jump through hoops because "NY is so great"...and more and more, from corporations, to small businesses, to just normal(non homeless) people...we are seeing them just say "nah" because the mix in other places is way more favorable when all else is factored in. 

 

When I invest, I like long and hard to disrupt tailwinds. Here you have the opposite. It probably changes again one day, thats how cycles work, and I'll be there to jump in when it does, but I gotta put food on the table and the investment case here is poor. 

I agree, they do seem to shoot themselves in the foot and are their own worst enemy a lot.  Many of the laws and regulations and things they try are stupid (I thought Bloomberg's "fat tax" on sodas was the ultimate big government stupidity attempt).  Huge cities do dumb things largely because they can.  And it will come full circle at some point as it always has - Guiliani's crackdown on crime after the Dinkin years for example.  Bloomberg tacking red tape.  Etc.  It's funny because when I lived there some of the older residents lamented the clean up and Disney-fying of Times Square because they thought NY was losing its grittiness and hard edge.  

 

But as a place to start a business it will always be a top draw because it is where the money and the talent accumulate.  Even in WFH, the jobs, the networking, the bars and restaurants get centralized for efficiency.   25 or 30 yr old IT engineers who want to and can make an absolute fortune don't want to do it Des Moines, Iowa, they want to be where the action is.  

 

At some point the pendulum will swing back and they'll loosen up the dumb rules and reduce the tax burden but it will take a while. 

[changegonnacome]

NYC, IMO, is a bet on continued & growing concentrated global affluence........or put another way......it's a bet on continued wealth/wage inequality driven by technology innovation......which is a great bet IMO given ChatGPT etc. and the trend in the future for companies being able to produce more & more 'stuff'/value while being staffed with fewer but higher skilled labor.......in an increasingly technologically advanced economy requiring less labor....more and more $$$ accrues to fewer and fewer people over time which equals what we have now - an emerging 'super' W2+++ elite collecting  x10 the median salary........if your truly wealthy or a high earner......in say the top 0.5% nationally.......there are not many better places to live anywhere on planet earth to deploy that $$$ in unique and novel ways where you just know you're living your "best life".......& certainly if your a very wealthy person who's a culture vulture/foodie/likes to travel.......NYC has Tier 1 live music, art, theatre, restaurants, global/domestic connectivity (JFK/EWR/LGA).........as a bundled package of 'amenities' all conveniently located within a 20 minute UberLux car ride from your Manhattan luxury condo.......it's kind of unparalleled across quality, convenience & selection.........& if your in the top 0.5% of earners you can insulate yourself against the worst of NYC for sure.

 

You've got other global playgrounds for the well heeled- Dubai, Singapore, Miami, London, Rome - but you know you take the say five or six criteria I just laid out.....and I think you'll find it hard to find a place that measures up to NYC across all those criteria simultaneously.....certain places hit 3 or 4 out of 5....but are found wanting in other areas. Very very wealthy people suffer from FOMO, they are type A...they want to live in a place with ZERO comprises on anything.

 

I sometimes think of cities by business functions too:

 

Front Office - NYC/SF

Middle Office - Charlotte

Back Office - Jacksonville

 

AI, ML, ChatGPT automation & technology more broadly is likely going to to rip through the back and middle office first in the coming decades. Leaving a kind of narrow 'super' elite running SPY & QQQ companies. 

 

NYC wins if that happens.

 

Put more succinctly - if Bernard Arnould at LVMH could acquire a city........NYC would top of his list.

Edited July 1, 2023 by changegonnacome

[brobro777]

32 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

NYC, IMO, is a bet on continued & growing concentrated global affluence........or put another way......it's a bet on continued wealth/wage inequality driven by technology innovation......which is a great bet IMO given ChatGPT etc. and the trend in the future for companies being able to produce more & more 'stuff'/value while being staffed with fewer but higher skilled labor.......in an increasingly technologically advanced economy requiring less labor....more and more $$$ accrues to fewer and fewer people over time which equals what we have now - an emerging 'super' W2+++ elite collecting  x10 the median salary........if your truly wealthy or a high earner......in say the top 0.5% nationally.......there are not many better places to live anywhere on planet earth to deploy that $$$ in unique and novel ways where you just know you're living your "best life".......& certainly if your a very wealthy person who's a culture vulture/foodie/likes to travel.......NYC has Tier 1 live music, art, theatre, restaurants, global/domestic connectivity (JFK/EWR/LGA).........as a bundled package of 'amenities' all conveniently located within a 20 minute UberLux car ride from your Manhattan luxury condo.......it's kind of unparalleled across quality, convenience & selection.........& if your in the top 0.5% of earners you can insulate yourself against the worst of NYC for sure.

 

You've got other global playgrounds for the well heeled- Dubai, Singapore, Miami, London, Rome - but you know you take the say five or six criteria I just laid out.....and I think you'll find it hard to find a place that measures up to NYC across all those criteria simultaneously.....certain places hit 3 or 4 out of 5....but are found wanting in other areas. Very very wealthy people suffer from FOMO, they are type A...they want to live in a place with ZERO comprises on anything.

 

I sometimes think of cities by business functions too:

 

Front Office - NYC/SF

Middle Office - Charlotte

Back Office - Jacksonville

 

AI, ML, ChatGPT automation & technology more broadly is likely going to to rip through the back and middle office first in the coming decades. Leaving a kind of narrow 'super' elite running SPY & QQQ companies. 

 

NYC wins if that happens.

 

Put more succinctly - if Bernard Arnould at LVMH could acquire a city........NYC would top of his list.

 

 

Yea there is something about NYC that always felt special. I moved from NYC to Los Angeles in 2013 and I miss things like the cheap Chinese place I used to go to on 116th St. And crime has gotten worse than the Bloomberg years but things are nowhere as bad as they were in the 1980s. 

 

I don't miss NYC Income tax though haha 

[Gregmal]

26 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

NYC, IMO, is a bet on continued & growing concentrated global affluence........or put another way......it's a bet on continued wealth/wage inequality driven by technology innovation......which is a great bet IMO given ChatGPT etc. and the trend in the future for companies being able to produce more & more 'stuff'/value while being staffed with fewer but higher skilled labor.......in an increasingly technologically advanced economy requiring less labor....more and more $$$ accrues to fewer and fewer people over time which equals what we have now - an emerging 'super' W2+++ elite collecting  x10 the median salary........if your truly wealthy or a high earner......in say the top 0.5% nationally.......there are not many better places to live anywhere on planet earth to deploy that $$$ in unique and novel ways where you just know you're living your "best life".......& certainly if your a very wealthy person who's a culture vulture/foodie/likes to travel.......NYC has Tier 1 live music, art, theatre, restaurants, global/domestic connectivity (JFK/EWR/LGA).........as a bundled package of 'amenities' all conveniently located within a 20 minute UberLux car ride from your Manhattan luxury condo.......it's kind of unparalleled across quality, convenience & selection.........& if your in the top 0.5% of earners you can insulate yourself against the worst of NYC for sure.

 

You've got other global playgrounds for the well heeled- Dubai, Singapore, Miami, London, Rome - but you know you take the say five or six criteria I just laid out.....and I think you'll find it hard to find a place that measures up to NYC across all those criteria simultaneously.....certain places hit 3 or 4 out of 5....but are found wanting in other areas. Very very wealthy people suffer from FOMO, they are type A...they want to live in a place with ZERO comprises on anything.

 

I sometimes think of cities by business functions too:

 

Front Office - NYC/SF

Middle Office - Charlotte

Back Office - Jacksonville

 

AI, ML, ChatGPT automation & technology more broadly is likely going to to rip through the back and middle office first in the coming decades. Leaving a kind of narrow 'super' elite running SPY & QQQ companies. 

 

NYC wins if that happens.

 

Put more succinctly - if Bernard Arnould at LVMH could acquire a city........NYC would top of his list.

Partly yes, and partly no, IMO. You want to be clearly and cleanly long the 1% which is one area in what I own I look to thematically express. Not “anything NYC” which is a huge losing proposition due to basically an all the above list of perils ranging from government overreach to greedbags who screw minority shareholders, to criminals on the streets, even down to the Brookfields who engineer vehicles designed to leave risks with others.
 

As you and I agree, along with pretty much 110% of my “NY Rulz bruh” friends, MSG is pretty much the apex of NYC high end entertainment and hospitality for the 1% and mega corporations. Biggest sponsor at the Garden…JPM Chase lol. Playoff tickets? 4-5 figures a game. Harry Styles or Taylor Swift tickets? 2 months salary for the average American lol. Further, the Penn Station development, which is crucial to revitalizing and improving the city…all roads go through MSG. Dolan has to get paid for that to work. And besides, Dolan is your classic NY mogul….what’s not to like about rolling wit Dolan? But outside of MSG, the investment options are pretty shitty and the real world options are all tucked into risk filled land mines because of general deterioration of the city. I mean you wanna buy a property and ABNB it knowing you’ll get sued if you discriminate against a felon or a pedo? Or likely rent to some heathen who has no respect for your property who you then charge damages to but their bank account is empty? Fuck all that.

[RedLion]

16 hours ago, Gregmal said:

My biggest concerns there are pro crime, pro tax the wealthy(their lifeblood), and just generally continuing to be horrifically anti business. All those things are getting worse, not better. 

Sounds like my sunny home state. 

[Castanza]

On 6/30/2023 at 10:53 PM, LC said:

Hey I really don't know. And I was a 20 something that bounced rather than pay 1M for a half-shitbox, so I get your point.

 

That said - NYC can reinvent itself very quickly. The city's pace is very quick. 

 

You're right that the homelessness and the bullshit policies and politics are a problem. But those are temporary problems, not structural. WFH yeah is a structural problem. But I think that can just as easily bring folks back to a revitalized NYC as quickly as it drove them away. 

 

I own Clipper and Aimco, in about equal weights.

Anyone think tech has changed the social dynamics of cities? I mean wasn’t part of the draw always the energy of people being around and interacting? People going out to clubs or bars and actually talking or trying to pick up chicks? 
 

Just seems like with the advent of the cell phone/social media this dynamic has changed a lot (probably permanently). Specifically for the younger generations this is noticeable.  They value online interaction over in person. 
 

Throw in other dynamics like wfh, crime, increased drug addictions etc and I can’t help but think cities as “social centers” has taken some kind of permanent impairment. If those things are no longer forefront then what’s the point of living there? Just spitballing too, could be completely off on this. Cities certainly could adapt I guess?

[Gregmal]

Uber too imo. Taxis largely used to be city features due to density and network. Now most non rural places in America you click two bottoms in your phone and have a low cost ride outside in a matter of minutes. The social element expansion brought about by the internet is a huge deal. When you think of what started the whole trend during the Industrial Revolution, it was social proximity and opportunity. Considering it takes 30-45 minutes to get to many parts of the city from other parts of the city, which is the same if not longer than the time it takes from much of the suburbs, it’s baffling so many of them just don’t know any better.

[rkbabang]

Doordash as well.  It used to be that the only place that would deliver food to you in most towns was a pizza place or two.  Now you have access to every restaurant in your area including nearby cities.  I live outside of Manchester NH, yet can have doordash bring me food from most Manchester restaurants without me needing to drive into the city myself to get it.

[dwy000]

14 hours ago, Castanza said:

Anyone think tech has changed the social dynamics of cities? I mean wasn’t part of the draw always the energy of people being around and interacting? People going out to clubs or bars and actually talking or trying to pick up chicks? 
 

Just seems like with the advent of the cell phone/social media this dynamic has changed a lot (probably permanently). Specifically for the younger generations this is noticeable.  They value online interaction over in person. 
 

Throw in other dynamics like wfh, crime, increased drug addictions etc and I can’t help but think cities as “social centers” has taken some kind of permanent impairment. If those things are no longer forefront then what’s the point of living there? Just spitballing too, could be completely off on this. Cities certainly could adapt I guess?

I don't know, that could be a factor but it could also be that with most work now done from home or isolated in front of a screen, the after work social part is more important.  There aren't too many large cities in the US that are shrinking and rent seems to continue going up everywhere.  

 

The dynamic of living in the city and enjoying the social aspects while you are young and single, then moving to the burbs or more rural when you settle down and have kids, seems to be continuing. What will be interesting is to see how the rapid decline in the birth rate will impact that.  

[Castanza]

45 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

I don't know, that could be a factor but it could also be that with most work now done from home or isolated in front of a screen, the after work social part is more important.  There aren't too many large cities in the US that are shrinking and rent seems to continue going up everywhere.  

 

The dynamic of living in the city and enjoying the social aspects while you are young and single, then moving to the burbs or more rural when you settle down and have kids, seems to be continuing. What will be interesting is to see how the rapid decline in the birth rate will impact that.  

Sherry Turkle has been doing some interesting work in this area. Haven’t had a chance to read any of her books yet but might have to. I think she’s done some recent work on office space and the younger generations. 

[Ulti]

A very good podcast with a nyc based

real estate company that manages office as well as converts office to MF… goes into detail on all things office and NYC
 

[Parsad]

Even 50 Cent is worried about LA after no-bail policy comes into effect!  Cheers!

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/50-cent-says-los-angeles-193321781.html

[Gregmal]

I’ve always thought it a little funny just how much some of these guys like 50 value being safe. Personal security teams going 2 dozen deep lol. They sing about violence and some about anti police stuff and then you see it’s all just an act for the suckers.
 

I don’t know what crazy world safety isn’t seen as desirable in a community. Yet here we are. Some senior citizen randomly murdered in Queens today while walking to Mosque….but I heart NY!

[fareastwarriors]

Manhattan Luxury Real-Estate Market Heats Up - Rising stock market, fading recession fears fuel sales to wealthy New Yorkers