What Extreme Events may take place during the pandemic?

[LongHaul]

What Extreme Events may take place during the pandemic?

 

The main ones that I think are quite likely:

 

1.  Sovereign debt defaults - Italy, Greece, etc.  After the great depression there was a wave of sovereign defaults.  I would not loan Italy 1 Euro.  ~13% of the economy is tourism, it was 135% net debt to GDP prior to the crisis, weak economy, Euro as a currency and highly corrupt society.  So on the 10 year Italian bonds you make ~2%, but could lose >60% in a default.  No thanks.  With ~2.5 trillion of debt this could easily cause a huge financial panic around the world. 

 

2.  Higher inflation in many countries from governments pissing away money rather than letting free markets work.  Plus central banks easy money policies.

 

3.  Real estate crashes with banking crisis in many part of the world.

 

Thoughts?

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Biden gets elected potus

[Spekulatius]

Biden and Trump both get infected before the election and don’t make it.

[Gamecock-YT]

Jay Cutler and Kristin Cavallari announcing their divorce

[Jurgis]

Biden and Trump both get infected before the election and don’t make it.

 

And Melania elected President!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

What Extreme Events may take place during the pandemic?

 

The main ones that I think are quite likely:

 

1.  Sovereign debt defaults - Italy, Greece, etc.  After the great depression there was a wave of sovereign defaults.  I would not loan Italy 1 Euro.  ~13% of the economy is tourism, it was 135% net debt to GDP prior to the crisis, weak economy, Euro as a currency and highly corrupt society.  So on the 10 year Italian bonds you make ~2%, but could lose >60% in a default.  No thanks.  With ~2.5 trillion of debt this could easily cause a huge financial panic around the world. 

 

2.  Higher inflation in many countries from governments pissing away money rather than letting free markets work.  Plus central banks easy money policies.

 

3.  Real estate crashes with banking crisis in many part of the world.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Higher corporate taxes in response to corporate bailouts for the second time in 12-years.

[DTEJD1997]

I have been surprised that people, especially those in the Detroit area, have been acting relatively calm.

 

I think this calmness has been due to 3 things:

 

1). People are trying to come together and "do the right thing" in a time of emergency.

 

2). People got (are getting) $1,200 stimulus checks, and incredibly generous unemployment benefits.  Getting significant money has a calming effect.

 

3). Here in the Detroit area, we have had very unusual weather.  I can't remember it being this cold/snowy, this late in the year.  Yesterday (5/8/20), some people in the area reported seeing snow flakes falling.  No accumulation, but some snow in the air.  Bad weather has a way of keeping people indoors and out of mischief.

 

Eventually, the weather is going to get better and change.  Stimulus checks will have been spent.  People will be out of work....

 

I think there will be a real possibility of major civil unrest this summer if things do not get significantly better and the economy start to re-open.  We have already seen a glimmer of this in the few protests at the MI state capitol. 

 

We do not have strong/intelligent politicians here in MI.  People are starting to get VERY angry at some of the rules, and are starting to question what is going on.

 

If things don't get better in the next few weeks, there very well might be major civil unrest.

[samwise]

A new Cold War against China?

[LC]

A new Cold War against China?

 

I don't think so (or let's say, I hope not). China needs strong allies before furthering aggression. Weak oil prices hurt Russia which indirectly hurts China's political sway.

[LongHaul]

I also think that if China's massive real estate bubble blows up that it could result in the Communist party collapse and democracy for China.

 

[onyx1]

Continued devaluation and money printing.

[Spekulatius]

This weekend, I trimmed my wife’s hair around her neck and now I am grounded for the week.

[DooDiligence]

Biden and Trump both get infected before the election and don’t make it.

 

I'd rather see both of them sprout massive tumors out of their ass cracks.

[K2SO]

How about Iran? How long can the regime survive low oil prices and a virus outbreak?

 

[bci23]

Potential blowup in the crude market (again) with the June but more likely July contract due to USO. Could be a mess.

 

[rkbabang]

I think most people are not taking seriously the possibility of civil unrest.  In the US and elsewhere.  If the lockdowns are not lifted, businesses start closing, and (most scary) food grows scarce, it could get really scary, really fast.  People will go from neighborly to savages in very short order if the grocery shelves go bare.

 

[DTEJD1997]

I think most people are not taking seriously the possibility of civil unrest.  In the US and elsewhere.  If the lockdowns are not lifted, businesses start closing, and (most scary) food grows scarce, it could get really scary, really fast.  People will go from neighborly to savages in very short order if the grocery shelves go bare.

 

What if workers start calling out sick at slaughter houses, processing plants, distributors, trucking companies, and most important of all perhaps, FOOD RETAILERS.  There is no way I would be working at a grocery store stocking shelves, unloading trucks, working cash registers for $10, $12, $14 an hour.

 

To an extent, that happened in the Detroit Post Office.  We are not getting daily mail delivery in my city.  The Post Office tries to do it, but some delivery routes can't be made every day.  The distribution/sorting hubs sometimes had 90% worker outages.  For a while, all outbound packages were being routed to Indianapolis for sorting/shipment.  Many of my packages took 2-3 weeks to be delivered.  1st class letters were taking 1+ week to go across the city.  There were simply not enough workers coming in.  The Post Office was very close to collapse.

 

In the past few days, things seem to have gotten better with the mail.  I've also heard that more workers are coming back.  Things are still difficult, but not like what they were.

 

A lot of businesses won't function if workers don't show up.  If there is a 2nd wave, that could be a real problem.

[Spekulatius]

I think most people are not taking seriously the possibility of civil unrest.  In the US and elsewhere.  If the lockdowns are not lifted, businesses start closing, and (most scary) food grows scarce, it could get really scary, really fast.  People will go from neighborly to savages in very short order if the grocery shelves go bare.

 

What if workers start calling out sick at slaughter houses, processing plants, distributors, trucking companies, and most important of all perhaps, FOOD RETAILERS.  There is no way I would be working at a grocery store stocking shelves, unloading trucks, working cash registers for $10, $12, $14 an hour.

 

To an extent, that happened in the Detroit Post Office.  We are not getting daily mail delivery in my city.  The Post Office tries to do it, but some delivery routes can't be made every day.  The distribution/sorting hubs sometimes had 90% worker outages.  For a while, all outbound packages were being routed to Indianapolis for sorting/shipment.  Many of my packages took 2-3 weeks to be delivered.  1st class letters were taking 1+ week to go across the city.  There were simply not enough workers coming in.  The Post Office was very close to collapse.

 

In the past few days, things seem to have gotten better with the mail.  I've also heard that more workers are coming back.  Things are still difficult, but not like what they were.

 

A lot of businesses won't function if workers don't show up.  If there is a 2nd wave, that could be a real problem.

 

They need to pay more and/or get rid of the $1200 UI weekly subsidy quickly. Worst implementation of good idea ever. They should have just bumped the UI benefit to a higher percentage of salary.

 

With the current incentive structure , a large part of the American population won’t get back to work - a middle school student can do the math on that one.

[Thrifty3000]

How about tens of millions of people working remotely for the first time ever? Many are communicating over unsecured networks or using vulnerable systems like Zoom, etc. I suspect the odds of a serious cyber attack couldn’t be much higher.

[meiroy]

 

 

1. Rise of fascism.

2. My bladder being trained to empty every 10 minutes because I drink all the time and the bathroom is literally a step away.

3. Absolutely nothing. Nothin changes, nothing improves and so we get a repeat in a few years. Possibly the worst outcome.

 

 

[LongHaul]

This weekend, I trimmed my wife’s hair around her neck and now I am grounded for the week.

 

Haha.  My brother and I used to cut each other hair when we were kids.  He is younger.  I would go second and

usually push the electric razor into his head cutting a small line of hair out and then I would say "oops".  Poor kid looked like he had a bunch of lines in his head.

[LongHaul]

How about Iran? How long can the regime survive low oil prices and a virus outbreak?

 

Good point.  A number of regimes - will likely change. 

[meiroy]

https://www.youprobablyneedahaircut.com/

 

Iran has a regime where there's a very rich elite that pillages the country's oil reserves, then uses some of the money for Islamist expansionism both directly and via proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc.  The current crisis is unlikely to cause a regime change, at most, they will put on hold investments in their proxies and perhaps reduce their footprint in Syria. North Korea is also not going to change unless the top guy dies and then there could be someone even worse.  Might accelerate the EU's breakup, though.

 

 

[rkbabang]

How about tens of millions of people working remotely for the first time ever? Many are communicating over unsecured networks or using vulnerable systems like Zoom, etc. I suspect the odds of a serious cyber attack couldn’t be much higher.

 

You would think that large corporations, especially tech companies will have secure VPNs and other security measures in place.  But yeah, all it takes is one idiot employee to be logging on from a Starbucks public wifi.

 

Twitter will let some employees work from home 'forever'

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/tech/twitter-work-from-home-forever/