Berkshire 2020 Q1 Results

[randomep]

Buffett's fingernails looks like he is going for the Howard Hughes look either that or Edward Scissorhands.

 

I don't get it? Are you literally talking about the length of buffett's fingernails?

 

[Spekulatius]

April 1-30

 

Repurchases: 0

Equity purchases: 426MM

Equity sales: 6500MM (airlines)

 

:-X

 

I expected that he is selling out of airlines. He clearly decided that they are a different  deal now then when he bought them. I think that a fair statement. I suspect it doesn’t just apply to airlines though.

[LC]

Yes, looks like about 2B of additional equity sales assuming he sold out of the airlines. WFC? OXY? GS?

[Gregmal]

Yes, looks like about 2B of additional equity sales assuming he sold out of the airlines. WFC? OXY? GS?

 

GM fits the gap too.

[AzCactus]

Question surrounding buying stock or buying back stock.  Sounds like he's defending the cash position as part of "fortress" balance sheet.  So he's willing to buy something for 30, 40, 50 billion but common stocks aren't attractive maybe I'm missing something.

 

Not the most satisfying answer---sounds like this means he thinks the Coronavirus is gonna be here a while and be bad.

[buffetteer1984]

Yeah I don't get this as well especially if he wants that "fortress" balance sheet.  It basically sounds like he wants to just get a whole business and get the cash flows, not necessarily equities that just go up in value with low/no dividends.  Maybe still holding out for those preferred deals with high rates with warrants

 

Question surrounding buying stock or buying back stock.  Sounds like he's defending the cash position as part of "fortress" balance sheet.  So he's willing to buy something for 30, 40, 50 billion but common stocks aren't attractive.

 

Not the most satisfying answer---sounds like this means he thinks the Coronavirus is gonna be here a while and be bad.

[Parsad]

Question surrounding buying stock or buying back stock.  Sounds like he's defending the cash position as part of "fortress" balance sheet.  So he's willing to buy something for 30, 40, 50 billion but common stocks aren't attractive maybe I'm missing something.

 

Not the most satisfying answer---sounds like this means he thinks the Coronavirus is gonna be here a while and be bad.

 

It's not that.  A wholly owned business is consolidated into the balance sheet and financials, and carried at cost, so it would have little impact on statutory surplus in a market downturn.  But if he put $50B into equities, and the price fluctuated dramatically as it did in the 1st Quarter, it has an impact on how much business they can write due to mark to market accounting. 

 

The cash is there and not being invested because they would not be able to take advantage of a hard market if LA got hit with an earthquake or you see a massive hurricane in the Gulf Coast.  Cheers!

[LC]

I found his comment on "not wanting to talk about specific scenarios - as it may increase the probability of them occurring"

 

Very bearish tune from a person whose opinion can shift entire markets...

[Xerxes]

...

“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.”

I believe most folks, including myself, fall in the second bucket.

You realize (do you?) that your statement, as phrased, could be a source of mental anguish.

 

Perhaps helpful to use the Brooklyn Investor's lens (no this is not a post about market timing, or is it?):

http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2017/11/is-buffett-bearish.html

Using similar methodology and incorporating the latest released data, the coverage stands at 117-8%.

Maybe helpful to remember that 1997 and 1998 were special years, as GenRe was acquired and BRK picked up 19B of bonds as part of 15B of float (unaudited, from handwritten notes). So 1999 may be a better year for comparison (pro-forma if you like), especially keeping in mind some of the comments made then.

i think Mr. Buffett was made aware of this coverage data and apparently said that it happened to be a fortuitous correlation.Perhaps fortuitous but interesting nonetheless..

When he purchased GenRe, he had mentioned that he was "creating Fort Knox here". Perhaps 2020 is a time when we are collectively running out of Fort Knoxes.

 

For me 2020, it is all about Purells and BRK :)

Cheers

[meiroy]

 

It makes me happy to see Buffett is looking good and he sounds good.

 

[Gamecock-YT]

That precision castpart answer was pretty gloomy. Talking about nobody needing new airplanes and how that impacts the employees of the airlines, Boeing, GE, and Precision. 

[Williams406]

Paraphrasing Buffett: "We know of one insurer that will have a lot of claims relative to their size related to business interruption coverage."

[Xerxes]

That precision castpart answer was pretty gloomy. Talking about nobody needing new airplanes and how that impacts the employees of the airlines, Boeing, GE, and Precision.

 

Wide bodies will be greatly impacted.

Narrow bodies will be also impacted but will recover first.

 

But yeah gloomy.

[meiroy]

 

There was a positive comment about the defense side of aeronautics, which is still going on. Probably considered essential.

 

[rogermunibond]

Paraphrasing Buffett: "We know of one insurer that will have a lot of claims relative to their size related to business interruption coverage."

 

Hiscox?

[AzCactus]

So he's talking about buybacks.  Kinda throwing up in my mouth.  He was buying back ~20% higher and now putting the brakes on.  Wonder if he'll get a question pressing more about that.

[Spekulatius]

 

There was a positive comment about the defense side of aeronautics, which is still going on. Probably considered essential.

 

Every defense business or even supplier to defense business is essential.

[wescobrk]

So he's talking about buybacks.  Kinda throwing up in my mouth.  He was buying back ~20% higher and now putting the brakes on.  Wonder if he'll get a question pressing more about that.

 

The only rational explanation is the uncertainty that he referenced due to the covid 19. But, at other times, he talks about the you can't stop America and Berkshire will come out stronger, so he seems a bit contradictory at times, but my guess is that now that he knows about Covid 19, his margin of safety now is wider for Berkshire and any other marketable security.

[wescobrk]

Bingo, he just said it, the discount isn't wide enough now at these prices as they were 3 and 6 months ago.

[buffetteer1984]

My takeaway in terms of value 1. buffett believes the s&p index is likely a better investment than berkshire moving forward

2. Berkshire at 185 is now equally as valuable as at 220 a few months back therefore impairment of actual long term value of 15% more or less so far from corona. 

3. at 160 or 30% lower from its peak he MIGHT have bought back shares but it wasn't there long enough to make any moves.

[clutch]

I feel like he is overly worried about this virus, possibly due to his old age.

[vinod1]

Regarding buybacks he also mentioned the option value of the cash is now higher (if I heard it right).

 

Vinod

[jasonchin]

I feel like he is overly worried about this virus, possibly due to his old age.

 

I do feel part of this is due to Bill Gates. Bill's CNBC interview was also on a more pessimistic/cautious side of it.

[LC]

My takeaway in terms of value 1. buffett believes the s&p index is likely a better investment than berkshire moving forward

 

I think he pretty much said as much, either this meeting or in the interview he did prior.

 

I feel like he is overly worried about this virus, possibly due to his old age.

 

I also agree here, he did seem exceedingly worried. But he made it clear that he knows just as much about this virus as we all do - so perhaps he is more worried about the economic fallout vs. the virus itself?

 

But that view doesn't make total sense either in the context of buffetteer's point #2: "2. Berkshire at 185 is now equally as valuable as at 220 a few months back therefore impairment of actual long term value of 15% more or less so far from corona.

"

 

 

[Peregrine]

He compares Berkshire's stock with all the other opportunities out there, so not surprised that he hasn't bought back stock meaningfully.

 

As for the virus, it seems to me that he's a lot more apprehensive about people's reaction to the virus than the virus itself.