Coronavirus

[Guest cherzeca]

"So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

March 6, 2020

[SnarkyPuppy]

What is the growth rate of the flu?

 

What is the growth rate of the coronavirus?

[Guest cherzeca]

" So your base case thesis is that Italy shut off it's entire economy because of "fake news", instead of the thesis that there is an actual problem?

 

What you said.  Pure lunacy."

 

my thought is that is Italy doesnt shut down its entire country every flu season, then it has no reason to shut down the entire country because of covid19.  but take one look at its banking sector and you will understand that the Italian economic sensibility is hard to understand

[SnarkyPuppy]

" So your base case thesis is that Italy shut off it's entire economy because of "fake news", instead of the thesis that there is an actual problem?

 

What you said.  Pure lunacy."

 

my thought is that is Italy doesnt shut down its entire country every flu season, then it has no reason to shut down the entire country because of covid19.  but take one look at its banking sector and you will understand that the Italian economic sensibility is hard to understand

 

What if you're wrong?

[mloub]

"So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

March 6, 2020

 

There are actually 4,284 reported deaths as of yesterday.. So in about 3 days the number of deaths went up by 42.8%, give or take. So if we just let this thing run it's course and focus on the flu, what do you project the number of deaths will be in 30 days? 60 days? (Coronaviruses handle the heat better than the flu, after all).

 

M.

 

[Viking]

My country (Canada) has just entered the next phase (confirmed community transfer). My Province (BC) yesterday announced its first death and the Health Minister was fighting back tears. Sounds like the Federal Government will be making some announcements tomorrow. What is going on in Italy was lead story on the news tonight; the more graphic examples people get the more quickly they will understand/accept social distancing measures (school closures, event cancellations etc).

 

At my sons hockey game on Saturday the virus was a topic of discussion in the various parent groups (dads and moms). The consensus was that the world was over-reacting (my wife passed on the chatter from the moms group). “Its just like the flu.” was said over and over... 

 

I would love to see some of the measures from South Korea implemented in BC (aggressive testing and communication); anything to slow this thing as much as possible.

[mcliu]

Anyone here still going to the FFH/BRK AGMs? Looks like I'll pass this year.

Hope WB/PW cancels AGM, they're in the high-risk age groups. :-\

[Guest cherzeca]

"So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

March 6, 2020

 

There are actually 4,284 reported deaths as of yesterday.. So in about 3 days the number of deaths went up by 42.8%, give or take. So if we just let this thing run it's course and focus on the flu, what do you project the number of deaths will be in 30 days? 60 days? (Coronaviruses handle the heat better than the flu, after all).

 

M.

 

who knows how fast it is spreading with mortal effect, though we know your 42.8% figure is wrong since you calculated with such false precision ignoring the more than qualifier.  dont use data in this argument since the data proves this is a covid-19 panic given the far greater incidence and mortality for flu. data is not your friend in this argument.  you are just supporting a panic thesis, and you seem to have a lot of company

[mloub]

"So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

March 6, 2020

 

 

There are actually 4,284 reported deaths as of yesterday.. So in about 3 days the number of deaths went up by 42.8%, give or take. So if we just let this thing run it's course and focus on the flu, what do you project the number of deaths will be in 30 days? 60 days? (Coronaviruses handle the heat better than the flu, after all).

 

M.

 

who knows how fast it is spreading with mortal effect, though we know your 42.8% figure is wrong since you calculated with such false precision ignoring the more than qualifier.  dont use data in this argument since the data proves this is a covid-19 panic given the far greater incidence and mortality for flu. data is not your friend in this argument.  you are just supporting a panic thesis, and you seem to have a lot of company

 

From the article you referenced:

 

"The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

 

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.

 

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%."

 

So, the death rate from the flu is 0.1% and for COVID-19 anywhere from 1.4%-2.3%. I know these sound like small numbers. But that is a 14-23x higher death rate than the flu. I'm not sure we should be running a natural experiment to see how long it would take covid-19 to overtake the seasonal flu in terms of absolute deaths, but reasonable people can disagree.

 

M.

 

[Viking]

Calculated Risk blog has put the US on recession watch. This guy is very good. He called the housing crash back in 2007-08 almost perfectly. He is also very balanced with his analysis and does not pull punches.

 

Going On Recession Watch

- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/going-on-recession-watch.html

 

I'm not forecasting a recession, just moving to Recession Watch for the first time since 2006.  Note: In early 2007, I moved from Recession Watch to forecasting a recession that started in December 2007.

 

As I noted in Predicting the Next Recession, the usual leading indicators are not useful if there is "a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability reasons".

 

The reason I'm moving to Recession Watch now is a combination of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the response to the pandemic of the current administration.

 

Leadership is key in a crisis.  Information should be clear, transparent, and accurate.  Action should be proactive.

[undervalued]

I am not optimistic the way Trump has responded to Coronavirus. We're still not testing enough, much much less and accurate than South Korea do. W/o those tests, how can you be sure that you coworker, family do not have it? It will create distrust. I am guessing we'll be worse next month than today.

[ERICOPOLY]

I am not optimistic the way Trump has responded to Coronavirus. We're still not testing enough, much much less and accurate than South Korea do. W/o those tests, how can you be sure that you coworker, family do not have it? It will create distrust. I am guessing we'll be worse next month than today.

 

Oh come on, you're just saying that because you don't want Trump to be reelected.  This is just another Impeachment hoax.

 

What, you mean that didn't make you optimistic?  What's wrong with you?

[james22]

How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan

 

[meiroy]

 

Not sure if it was mentioned on this thread but when hospitals get overrun due to this and doctors start to get sick themselves, it impacts anyone that would rely on normal health care service. Cancer patients might not be able to get treatments, ICU might be closed, diabetics, kids, eye injuries etc.

 

[CorpRaider]

I propose that South Korea be moved to the developed economies/countries in all indexes based partially on the handling of this virus. 

[SnarkyPuppy]

"So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 100,000 illnesses and more than 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

March 6, 2020

 

There are actually 4,284 reported deaths as of yesterday.. So in about 3 days the number of deaths went up by 42.8%, give or take. So if we just let this thing run it's course and focus on the flu, what do you project the number of deaths will be in 30 days? 60 days? (Coronaviruses handle the heat better than the flu, after all).

 

M.

 

who knows how fast it is spreading with mortal effect, though we know your 42.8% figure is wrong since you calculated with such false precision ignoring the more than qualifier.  dont use data in this argument since the data proves this is a covid-19 panic given the far greater incidence and mortality for flu. data is not your friend in this argument.  you are just supporting a panic thesis, and you seem to have a lot of company

 

"And if the band you're in starts playing different tunes..."

[Guest Schwab711]

On 3/6/20 WHO did a short Q&A on COVID-19

 

Seasonal influenza has a death rate well below 0.1%. they round up to show it's not 0. Think back to rules on sign figs when reading about science.

 

The death rate for Corona is quite a bit higher

 

Containment has only been realized following large scale, prolonged shutdowns of economic activity. Pointing to China or South Korea and saying "fake news" ignores the tremendous societal behavior changes required to get to that point. They will happen in the US because it works or we will suffer. Either way, other countries will still lock down and there will be economic slowdowns with or without containment measures.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

 

I always read/hear about "skate to the puck". This is an easy one to see tomorrow's reality will not look like today.

[boilermaker75]

I got an email last night that as of March 23 I have to move my class on-line for the rest of the semester. That means this is our last week of live classes as next week is Spring break.

 

I had emailed our university administration and suggested just canceling Spring break and continue to hold classes. That would have prevented students from scattering all over the world and coming back with the virus. Plus if we had continued the semester next week we would have gotten closer to completing the full semester before any disruption had occurred.

[Guest Schwab711]

 

The point of this chart is to provide a simple visual representation of why containment matters if we are all resigned to exposure over the next 1+ year anyway. If everyone gets sick all at once the death rate will be elevated. If you can moderate the number sick at any given time, outcomes will be better.

 

[merkhet]

Is it just me or is the polarization on this thread odd to other people too? It seems like a lot of people are either in the (1) it's just the flu and a nothingburger or (2) omfg this is going to overwhelm everything camps. (I'm throwing out the dude on the other thread who said this is an "extinction level event" because... I mean, come on.)

 

Where are my "this is concerning, and we are watching developments with caution" folks?

[DooDiligence]

Is it just me or is the polarization on this thread odd to other people too? It seems like a lot of people are either in the (1) it's just the flu and a nothingburger or (2) omfg this is going to overwhelm everything camps. (I'm throwing out the dude on the other thread who said this is an "extinction level event" because... I mean, come on.)

 

Where are my "this is concerning, and we are watching developments with caution" folks?

 

Moderate = Unicorn

 

I'm having my horn painted today.

[Kaegi2011]

we dont close down schools and ban public events during flu season.  we dont lock down new Rochelle, quarantine and impose social distancing during flu season.  there is more cause to do this during normal flu season than because of this novel virus.

 

Italy didn't turn their entire economy off overnight because they are having a bad flu season.  Commitment and consistency bias.

 

that is my point.  Italy while still hit by covid19 is hurt worse by flu every year, and they dont shut their entire country down.  pure lunacy.  while wuhan is a special case, since the outbreak coincided with a new year celebration with much travel and social engagement, I am not sure even wuhan had more fatalities than a normal flu season. haven't seen Chinese data on normal flu fatalities in wuhan (60MM people)

 

I'm not sure I understand the line of reasoning here.  You're saying that as a species we have acclimated to the flu deaths and therefore anything resembling it should cause no further alarm?  Putting aside the obvious question of whether they are similar with respect to R0 and CFR, and assume for a moment that they are equivalent to the "normal" flu, are you suggesting that the responses to the flu season is appropriate prior to COVID19?  I would have said that we do NOT do enough every year - the percentage of people who get vaccines (at least in the US) is atrociously low despite the fact that it's free to anyone with a health insurance.  I will say the same thing about texting while driving, poor diets, etc.  Stupidity knows no limits, but sometimes it's only obvious to a population after something traumatic happens (e.g., dangers of opioids have been known for a long time, yet it still found its way back until it became national headlines). 

 

Secondarily, as a few have mentioned above, do you think R0 and CFRs are equivalent to the flue?  If they are significantly higher (from 2x on R0 to exponentially higher on CFR), isn't that cause for concern?  And even if you don't think those numbers could be well established at the moment, which I can understand some level of skepticism, do you think the levels of people who are at hospitals in Wuhan and Italy resemble a "normal" flu season? 

[matts]

Poland just closed all schools, museums, and cinemas.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8099501/Poland-closes-schools-museums-cinemas-amid-coronavirus.html

 

with only 25 confirmed cases this seems like a very proactive approach that the US and Canada are not implementing and I think they will pay a price.

 

(I'm on the "this is a significant event but we will get through it" camp)

 

[Read the Footnotes]

 

Containment has only been realized following large scale, prolonged shutdowns of economic activity. Pointing to China or South Korea and saying "fake news" ignores the tremendous societal behavior changes required to get to that point. They will happen in the US because it works or we will suffer. Either way, other countries will still lock down and there will be economic slowdowns with or without containment measures.

 

Schwab's comments are very important to note.

 

To point to China and say that the situation is improving and that improvement proves this was all overblown is very misleading. China has incurred a huge cost to get to this point and things are NOT back to normal.

 

If you look at the Chinese Government videos that are intended to be reassuring propoganda, even in those videos it is far less than reassuring. EVERYONE is still wearing a blue face mask and practicing social distancing by standing or sitting at least two meters apart, and the streets are empty, all the businesses are closed no street traffic. See! Everything is back to normal!

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-president-xi-jinping-arrives-in-wuhan-chinese-state-broadcaster-11583811578

 

 

Clearly nothing to see there.  ;) Three months later and everything is back to normal.

 

EDIT:

 

Improvement doesn't have much meaning within out putting it in the context of the costs incurred to achieve that improvement.

[writser]

Is it just me or is the polarization on this thread odd to other people too? It seems like people are either in the (1) it's just the flu and a nothingburger or (2) omfg this is going to overwhelm everything. (I'm throwing out the dude on the other thread who said this is an "extinction level event" because... I mean, come on.)

 

Where are my "this is concerning, and we are watching developments with caution" folks?

 

If you have nothing extreme to add to the discussion you probably won't bother posting. I think that's the same reason the politics section is super polarized.

 

I hardly have anything sensible to say about the virus either, but in my opinion it will be very interesting to see what will happen with the number of cases in Italy the next few weeks, now that the country and its citizens seem to be aware of how serious this thing is and have taken drastic measures (and are considering even more). If the number of cases there will continue to grow at the historic pace I guess that that implies very bad things for the rest of the free developed world in the near future. If they can get it somewhat under control, not even necessarily Singapore-style 'if you leave your house you lose your residence permit'-style or China 'we weld your door shut'-style under control, but making the public aware of the risks, slowing the spreading rate and getting the situation in their hospitals to manageable levels I would be a lot more optimistic.

 

I live in a country where the prime minister banned shaking hands in a press conference and then shook hands immediately afterwards with the head of the local CDC .. ( https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-handshake-dutch-prime-minister-mark-rutte-netherlands-a9390341.html ) . That doesn't exactly inspire confidence either :) . On the other hand a lot of people are already working from home, cancelling events and meetings, hotels are underbooked, etc. We'll see if that is enough. It is my opinion that a lot of countries (and their citizens), including mine, seem too lackadaisical with their approach. But then again I'm a bit of a hypochondriac and no medical expert. And it is reassuring to see that when the shit really hits the fan adequate measures can quickly be taken, "even" in Italy. It remains to be seen if that gets things under control, but what happened in China and South Korea seems to suggest that it helps. A lot.

 

The US response seems extremely lackadaisical to me too but I thought this was an interesting opposing take by Tyler Cowen (link):

The U.S. does not have China’s extreme ability to cancel so many public events or enforce so many travel quarantines (or weld shut the doors in some apartment complexes). Yet it has another force on its side: the extreme and varied creativity of American entrepreneurs, including political and regulatory entrepreneurs at various levels of government.

 

To be clear, Americans cannot count on any of these responses to be automatic. And it is still essential for the president and other leaders to send the right signals. Nonetheless, it is too early to write off the U.S. response as pathetic; being a laggard is an old and dangerous American tradition. It is past time, however, to flip the switch and get moving.

 

On a personal/emotional level I hate this shit, I'm scared mostly for friends and family and if I listened to my gut the house would be stacked with beans and rice and I would start assaulting everybody who's coughing in public. We bought some extra groceries but I guess that's mostly an outlet for my fear that my significant other magnanimously tolerates. In terms of investing I try to stay a bit more rational. I think this has the potential to be very bad but I have a diversified portfolio, lots of cash and cash boxes / short term situations. I think my portfolio is relatively robust and prepared and even if I lose 50% I can handle it. I really don't think it will get to that. But I'm not too tempted to 'buy the dip' either and go all-in at valuations we've seen a few months ago. That's not my style. I guess for me it's just business as usual, looking for interesting special situations / balance sheet plays. Maybe I'm a bit more careful right now. Though when people start coining terms like 'extinction level events' I'm tempted to think that some people are overreacting .. Look at the situation in Italy. It is a fucking disaster, has the potential to get much worse but whatever happens life will go on, good companies will survive and the stock market does not go to zero.

 

So far for my nuanced view (or is it?). I'm not interested in discussing the following but I really don't understand the 'it's just the flu, nothing we can do, a lot of old people will die, business as usual' crowd. The situation in Italy / China / South Korea quite clearly suggest it's a little bit worse than that and that delaying / containing the spread is possible and could save quite a bit of lives if hospitals cannot handle the caseload otherwise .. Not to mention the possibility of a vaccine, cure, seasonal influences or the fact that even if you 'only' prevent a million people from getting sick in a big country you already save a shitload of man-years. Right now I'd rather have the South Korea / China response than the US response, however 'futile' or 'uneconomic' their measures are.