Coronavirus

[Liberty]

Larry Brilliant doesn’t hold back (he helped eradicate smallpox, so he knows what he’s saying):

 

[muscleman]

2016: 'We're going to win so much, you're going to be so sick and tired of winning'.

 

 

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

[Dalal.Holdings]

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

 

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths)

 

 

But anyway, having the same # hospitalized as back in early April and having even Republican states shut down large swaths of their economies and travel/leisure/entertainment/restaurants continue to be hit this far in late July is clearly #winning!

 

That'll be another multi-$Trillion, please from Congress + Fed. Thank guys! Remember, just a hoax, but we really need the money plz.

 

For the record--the number of Republican National Conventions cancelled due to influenza outbreaks in the past: zero.

 

[Liberty]

Pure sociopathic evil: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/media/sinclair-fauci-conspiracy-bolling/index.html

[Cigarbutt]

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

 

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths)

 

..

---The positives

-A significant component of the rise in cases is related to higher testing

-The positive tests now reveal a younger population reflecting community spread but resulting in relatively lower hospitalization and mortality (not in absolute numbers though)

-The death rates and projections (see Clutch's post above) involve especially older and less productive cohorts (the "economic" argument)

 

---The negatives

-The death rate, as standardly reported per population, in the US, are x6 for the last 28 days and x11 for the last 7 days when compared to G7 countries ex-US (that includes UK for the anti-globalist crowd)

-The expected death rate going into September reveals a yearly "run rate" of a multiple of yearly flu deaths

-Lately, testing rate has been going up in states that report low positivity rates but has gone down in states (eg AZ, FL, CA) that report high positivity rates which is a bizarre combination given the evolution over time and the federal nature of the organization

-There will be a short term price to pay to maintain a semblance of demand and this will be funded by debt

 

China announced that there will be a vaccine by year-end and "Mr. Liu, the Sinopharm chairman and an engineer by training, told CCTV that he had tested CNBG’s vaccine on himself in late March, before clinical trials even kicked off in China. He said that the first two phases of testing in China showed the company’s vaccines to be 100% effective and with no cases of serious side effects. “In the next step, everyone should be able to use it with peace of mind,” he said." Somehow peace is not what comes to mind when reading this.

 

The question that concerns me at this point is related to when schools reopen (soon) in order to reap the potential benefits related to that. By definition, there will be a price to pay (morbidity and mortality) but the cost will vary and will be unevenly distributed.

 

i think the US will come around when there will be a real crisis but it's painful to watch nonetheless.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

 

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths)

 

..

---The positives

-A significant component of the rise in cases is related to higher testing

-The positive tests now reveal a younger population reflecting community spread but resulting in relatively lower hospitalization and mortality (not in absolute numbers though)

-The death rates and projections (see Clutch's post above) involve especially older and less productive cohorts (the "economic" argument)

 

---The negatives

-The death rate, as standardly reported per population, in the US, are x6 for the last 28 days and x11 for the last 7 days when compared to G7 countries ex-US (that includes UK for the anti-globalist crowd)

-The expected death rate going into September reveals a yearly "run rate" of a multiple of yearly flu deaths

-Lately, testing rate has been going up in states that report low positivity rates but has gone down in states (eg AZ, FL, CA) that report high positivity rates which is a bizarre combination given the evolution over time and the federal nature of the organization

-There will be a short term price to pay to maintain a semblance of demand and this will be funded by debt

 

China announced that there will be a vaccine by year-end and "Mr. Liu, the Sinopharm chairman and an engineer by training, told CCTV that he had tested CNBG’s vaccine on himself in late March, before clinical trials even kicked off in China. He said that the first two phases of testing in China showed the company’s vaccines to be 100% effective and with no cases of serious side effects. “In the next step, everyone should be able to use it with peace of mind,” he said." Somehow peace is not what comes to mind when reading this.

 

The question that concerns me at this point is related to when schools reopen (soon) in order to reap the potential benefits related to that. By definition, there will be a price to pay (morbidity and mortality) but the cost will vary and will be unevenly distributed.

 

i think the US will come around when there will be a real crisis but it's painful to watch nonetheless.

 

The “positives”:

 

- We have a perfect “V shaped recovery” like no other country....in Covid hospitalizations. Mr. Market is not worried, so why should we? Just ignore all the Chapter 11 filings and pile into tech...

 

 

[patience_and_focus]

Nail in the coffin

 

Malaria Drug Chloroquine Does Not Inhibit COVID-19 Infection in Human Lung Cells

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2575-3

"These results indicate that chloroquine targets a pathway for viral activation that is not operative in lung cells and is unlikely to protect against SARS-CoV-2 spread in and between patients."

 

 

[muscleman]

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

 

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths)

 

 

But anyway, having the same # hospitalized as back in early April and having even Republican states shut down large swaths of their economies and travel/leisure/entertainment/restaurants continue to be hit this far in late July is clearly #winning!

 

That'll be another multi-$Trillion, please from Congress + Fed. Thank guys! Remember, just a hoax, but we really need the money plz.

 

For the record--the number of Republican National Conventions cancelled due to influenza outbreaks in the past: zero.

 

Can you get us a chart of daily death/daily new cases? ;)

[Dalal.Holdings]

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

 

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths)

 

 

But anyway, having the same # hospitalized as back in early April and having even Republican states shut down large swaths of their economies and travel/leisure/entertainment/restaurants continue to be hit this far in late July is clearly #winning!

 

That'll be another multi-$Trillion, please from Congress + Fed. Thank guys! Remember, just a hoax, but we really need the money plz.

 

For the record--the number of Republican National Conventions cancelled due to influenza outbreaks in the past: zero.

 

Can you get us a chart of daily death/daily new cases? ;)

 

Why? So you can argue what’s happening in the U.S. is no big deal? Is it wise to divide a lagging indicator by a leading indicator? Is that ratio going to give you an important insight?

 

If you want to play that game, maybe look more at total deaths/total cases by state...Arizona is currently about 2% deaths out of total cases (and where do you expect deaths to go as a lagging indicator?)

 

But again, the U.S. economy is not exactly thriving and even R politicians are buckling and RNC cancelled...tells you all you need to know about the “covid is no big deal” and “just like the Flu” crowd...even those who want to pretend it’s not a big deal are unable to do so...

 

You can only try to hide from reality for so long...

[John Hjorth]

Can you get us a chart of daily death/daily new cases?

 

Why? ...

 

... You can only try to hide from reality for so long...

 

Honestly, to me a pretty mind boggling thought exchange here on CoBF. [i want data!, m0re & m00re data! - It doesn't in that context matter what I've already got!]

 

It's all about reading the script [already written! - so far!] on the Wall! [to move on, to "take it from here", to adopt, adapt & improve!]

[Gregmal]

Can you get us a chart of daily death/daily new cases?

 

Why? ...

 

... You can only try to hide from reality for so long...

 

Honestly, to me a pretty mind boggling thought exchange here on CoBF. [i want data!, m0re & m00re data! - It doesn't in that context matter what I've already got!]

 

It's all about reading the script [already written! - so far!] on the Wall! [to move on, to "take it from here", to adopt, adapt & improve!]

 

I think when you remove narratives, which are quite popular, there is indeed writing on the wall. Look at the timeline of Fauci's statements on vaccine. Look at the data coming out from companies/countries running that race. I think we almost certainly have a vaccine, and its most likely widely available late '20/early '21. From day 1, governments all over, especially here, have been wildly unwilling to shoot straight about whats really happening with regard to the "behind the scenes" stuff. At this point I would think the plan is to temper expectation, and then surprise to the upside, just in time for the election. This same pattern has played out over and over with this administration, 100% willing to manipulate data to their benefit. Most recently with all the China trade nonsense.  I think the states kind of have a clue too, with some taking different approaches than others. Some...let things stay as is, who cares, vaccine will arrive soon....and others, like NY/NJ, etc...buy time/delay.

 

The other side, if you dont think this its accurate is pretty darn grim indeed. Things as simple as phase 2/3 stuff, restaurants with the outdoor seating.... how do you do that in January at 20 degree temps? You'd literally have to shut everything for 6 months....or completely open it all back up. Very binary IMO.

[Spekulatius]

I don’t think the vaccine is binary at all. For one thing, it is likely not 100% effective and might only reduce the probability of infection by 50%. This might enough to get us to herd immunity (or close) by suppressing the ro when almost everyone takes it, but it won’t protect he individual who takes it reliably.

 

Also, vaccines work less well on older people because their immune system is weaker and doesn’t respond as well. The main benefit for older people might be from the compounding effect that kicks in when everyone takes not when you personally takes it. It’s similar to a mask in a way.

 

Now with the way things play out, I am not sure everyone would take the vaccine.There were already board members here who stated they won’t. Now you have anti vacciner and those that give a damn because there don’t consider themselves personally at risk (younger folks presumable) and this who don’t have access to health care and I can see that it will be difficult to get the population here vaccinated efficiently and thorough.

 

Again, leadership will be essential once we have a vaccine to get this done and maybe give some incentives for people to vaccinate. It will be interesting but my guess is it won’t be binary.

[rb]

Leadership is absolutely essential! Unfortunately it's also in short supply.

 

You basically need an unimpeachable process behind it. Donald Trump needs to stop talking about it.  Seriously would any reasonable person buy anything from Donald Trump at this point? Much less something that you inject in your body?

 

The only person you should hear about vaccines from is someone who is so unbelievably boring that he or she must be telling the truth. If they do the same thing with vaccines as they did with masks the US is proper fucked. And there's nothing that the Fed is gonna be able to do about that.

[Gregmal]

With respect to economic activity, and return to normal...I think it will be very binary. Once you have a vaccine(s), tourism will get the green light, airlines will see pickup, offices will start filling back up, movie theaters open, people will run back to bars/clubs at full capacity(not that they haven't tried to already).

 

But yes, there will definitely be gaps and probably a good number of people who refuse...but the important components, from an investment perspective, get green lighted. The government will step away. As Ive brought up a number of times, the market fears the government shutdowns, not really the virus. There's a reason you see even shitty old retail/restaurant assets getting flipped at 5-7 cap rates in Florida and Texas, whereas the same one in NYC have no market.

[rb]

Markets have a long history of changing their minds on a dime and not apologize for it. What the markets don't fear today can very well become what they fear tomorrow. They are very fickle.

[muscleman]

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

 

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths)

 

 

But anyway, having the same # hospitalized as back in early April and having even Republican states shut down large swaths of their economies and travel/leisure/entertainment/restaurants continue to be hit this far in late July is clearly #winning!

 

That'll be another multi-$Trillion, please from Congress + Fed. Thank guys! Remember, just a hoax, but we really need the money plz.

 

For the record--the number of Republican National Conventions cancelled due to influenza outbreaks in the past: zero.

 

Can you get us a chart of daily death/daily new cases? ;)

 

Why? So you can argue what’s happening in the U.S. is no big deal? Is it wise to divide a lagging indicator by a leading indicator? Is that ratio going to give you an important insight?

 

If you want to play that game, maybe look more at total deaths/total cases by state...Arizona is currently about 2% deaths out of total cases (and where do you expect deaths to go as a lagging indicator?)

 

But again, the U.S. economy is not exactly thriving and even R politicians are buckling and RNC cancelled...tells you all you need to know about the “covid is no big deal” and “just like the Flu” crowd...even those who want to pretend it’s not a big deal are unable to do so...

 

You can only try to hide from reality for so long...

 

Sure everyone knows the death lags the new cases by two weeks. So how about just dividing the death number over new cases two weeks ago to make the death rate chart?

I never said this is just another Flu, if you look at my prior posts in this thread when the virus first broke out in Wuhan. I was the one who provided hands on information about what was happening back then in this forum. But what's going on right now is quite different.

And why do people even get surprised about the recent 2nd wave of new cases? With all the protesters on the street back in May and June, shoulder by shoulder, without masks, that's what we get now. But the virus has had 1-2 spots mutated and it is far less deadly right now than back in January in Wuhan.

[Liberty]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

 

 

[rb]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

[Dalal.Holdings]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

 

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman

 

Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either...

[Gregmal]

Well, its hardly a secret that the virus is less deadly. FL for instance has been having an outbreak for what? 2 months now? Texas the same. If we want to talk about being intellectually dishonest...shouldnt we get a follow up from the folks who confidently sneered about "waiting 2 weeks" back in June? I mean, its not like you need to give Trump credit for the death rate being much lower, so I dont see why its so hard even acknowledging it.

[Dalal.Holdings]

As I said, looking forward to the next round of $Trillions and more Chapter 11 filings for the “no big deal” virus where even R governors had to shut large sections of their economies. Death rate “much lower” at 1-2% of cases (with more to come and now avg 1000/day) yet for some reason these R politicians can’t cover it up despite their best efforts...RNC cancelled...so sad...

 

Of course, deaths are all that matter too. Ignore the “V shape” in hospitalizations exclusive to the United States. Being hospitalized with respiratory distress is no big deal after all...

 

Will be the same story for climate change...deny, deny, deny the disaster...

 

I don’t respond to the perpetually ignorant, I let them continue to suffer from their affliction. The only goal is to protect everyone else from the consequences of their ignorance.

[rb]

Well, its hardly a secret that the virus is less deadly. FL for instance has been having an outbreak for what? 2 months now? Texas the same. If we want to talk about being intellectually dishonest...shouldnt we get a follow up from the folks who confidently sneered about "waiting 2 weeks" back in June? I mean, its not like you need to give Trump credit for the death rate being much lower, so I dont see why its so hard even acknowledging it.

Being totally intellectually honest it's not at all clear that the virus is less deadly. The death rates have certainly been lower but there are a lot of factors that play into this:

 

1. There's a lot more experience in dealing with the virus/disease by things that were learned in dealing with it. These advances certainly decrease the lethality.

2. The distribution of infection over the population has changed. More younger people infected with better outcomes. This changes the statistics in crude terms but doesn't really speak to the lethality of the virus.

3. Geographic distribution of the virus. Case loads may be higher now but they're more spread out geographically whereas in March/April they have been concentrated in the North East. This goes to the stress on the medical systems. You go past the capacity of the medical systems and the mortality rate shoots up. This was the main thing in Italy, France, UK vs Germany, Austria. In Germany and Austria the health systems held up. For now because the outbreak is more spread out the health systems held up. But in TX/FL/AZ they're at or close to the limit. Infections keep pushing higher and you can reasonably expect mortality to increase.

 

That's basically the good news.

 

The bad news is that the we've learned that the virus doesn't kill, it also maimes. While it's a respiratory virus it aslo goes after the nervous system, renal system, cardio vascular system. Polio is mainly a gut virus that also goes after the brain. But when you hear about polio it's not people complaining about farts. So the problem is a lot bigger than how many people make it into the death statistic in a certain week as there will be a heavy toll to be paid even by the survivors.

 

Incidentally there's lots of people that are noticing these things and while you have a lot of people that are behaving irresponsibly you also have lots of people that do because they don't want to die or be maimed. It really doesn't matter to them that the mortality rate is a bit lower right now. They just don't want to be a statistic. So those people take a big chunk of the economy. To have an economy you really need to have an economy. You're not gonna be able to get around that icky fact with "Muh.. the Fed".

[Dalal.Holdings]

Well, its hardly a secret that the virus is less deadly. FL for instance has been having an outbreak for what? 2 months now? Texas the same. If we want to talk about being intellectually dishonest...shouldnt we get a follow up from the folks who confidently sneered about "waiting 2 weeks" back in June? I mean, its not like you need to give Trump credit for the death rate being much lower, so I dont see why its so hard even acknowledging it.

Being totally intellectually honest it's not at all clear that the virus is less deadly. The death rates have certainly been lower but there are a lot of factors that play into this:

 

1. There's a lot more experience in dealing with the virus/disease by things that were learned in dealing with it. These advances certainly decrease the lethality.

2. The distribution of infection over the population has changed. More younger people infected with better outcomes. This changes the statistics in crude terms but doesn't really speak to the lethality of the virus.

3. Geographic distribution of the virus. Case loads may be higher now but they're more spread out geographically whereas in March/April they have been concentrated in the North East. This goes to the stress on the medical systems. You go past the capacity of the medical systems and the mortality rate shoots up. This was the main thing in Italy, France, UK vs Germany, Austria. In Germany and Austria the health systems held up. For now because the outbreak is more spread out the health systems held up. But in TX/FL/AZ they're at or close to the limit. Infections keep pushing higher and you can reasonably expect mortality to increase.

 

That's basically the good news.

 

The bad news is that the we've learned that the virus doesn't kill, it also maimes. While it's a respiratory virus it aslo goes after the nervous system, renal system, cardio vascular system. Polio is mainly a gut virus that also goes after the brain. But when you hear about polio it's not people complaining about farts. So the problem is a lot bigger than how many people make it into the death statistic in a certain week as there will be a heavy toll to be paid even by the survivors.

 

Incidentally there's lots of people that are noticing these things and while you have a lot of people that are behaving irresponsibly you also have lots of people that do because they don't want to die or be maimed. It really doesn't matter to them that the mortality rate is a bit lower right now. They just don't want to be a statistic. So those people take a big chunk of the economy. To have an economy you really need to have an economy. You're not gonna be able to get around that icky fact with "Muh.. the Fed".

 

1-2% of cases dead so far in FL, in AZ more like 2%...so deadlier than the Flu by at least an order of magnitude if not more. Hospitalizations near all time records and set to surpass peak set months ago.

 

No sports. RNC cancelled. Air travel/tourism devastated. But let’s just “isolate seniors” and all will be well...

 

Devastating to the U.S. economy which has required gov’t intervention on the order of 15-20% of GDP (larger than ‘08-09) and more to come...huge number of bankruptcy filings, massive unemployment, but a few “investors” on CoBF have been telling me it’s all over hyped. S&P near record (don’t look at the banks or non-tech stocks tho) so all must be well...

[Spekulatius]

It’s not jut government deciding what to do, but also individuals and organizations. Flight trends are doen ~60% (These are search stats, but probably give a good idea). You can fly but most people don’t want to.

https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

[muscleman]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

 

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman

 

Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either...

 

Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting.