Coronavirus

[Viking]

Covid is quickly becoming THE political issue in the US. Scott Gotleib has said we are only in the second inning of this game. Hard to see how the continued politicization of this is going to help the US moving forward. The battle against the virus is moving to a new even more difficult stage.

 

G.O.P. Defiance of Pennsylvania’s Lockdown Has 2020 Implications

- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/us/politics/pennsylvania-tom-wolf-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

 

Republicans, sensing a gut-level anger in exurban and rural areas after nearly two months of restrictions, see an issue with the potential to drive turnout by voters in a state where Mr. Trump, as elsewhere in the industrial and Midwest region, needs a surge of support to repeat his narrow victory of 2016. In Wisconsin, also a swing state, the State Supreme Court sided with Republicans on Wednesday and threw out the stay-at-home order of Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat. In Texas, armed men have shown up to support businesses defying government orders to stay closed, an extreme sign of the politicizing of social distancing rules.

 

At the same time, polls show that Mr. Wolf, like other governors moving cautiously and heeding scientific benchmarks to reopen, is enjoying record support, including among many Republicans.

 

[Gregmal]

So I do recall at one point there was a ton of talk about how "reckless" states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas were with their responses and in some gases, lack of lockdowns. How they were going to be major disasters. And so today, out of curiosity I swung back to the numbers and none of those states are currently showing numbers that fit any of the forecasted descriptions. Why do we think this is?

[LC]

Greg - not sure, my personal uneducated guess is relation to international travel.

 

One outlier that baffles me is Louisiana.

 

Here you can check the weekly excess deaths per state, check out LA

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

 

I know there is a large Asian community in LA particularly for the fishing industry but that could just be spurious reasoning.

[Spekulatius]

So I do recall at one point there was a ton of talk about how "reckless" states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas were with their responses and in some gases, lack of lockdowns. How they were going to be major disasters. And so today, out of curiosity I swung back to the numbers and none of those states are currently showing numbers that fit any of the forecasted descriptions. Why do we think this is?

 

I think you need to look into more detail. I know for fact that Texas didn’t have a statewide shelter in place , but it did have shelter in place in the larger cities like Austin, DFW and is think Houston (not entirely sure on they latter), so essentially they had the same thing where it counts (cities).

 

Being spread out with relatively low population density and without public transport also helped. I think this is at least a large part of the explanation , but there could be other factors (weather etc) as well.

[Gregmal]

Yea I am not sure what to make of it. I am now reading about people flocking to bars in droves in Wisconsin, and restaurants in Arizona packed with lines of people waiting hours for a table and keep waiting for the dire warnings to turn into unfortunate realities...but so far, that doesnt seem to be happening. And as it continues to not play out the way many forecasted, it seems the behavior is quickly reverting back to normal. Which of course is great and all if this indeed was blown out of proportion, however if this happens to be premature, it would end up looking unnecessarily reckless.

 

I am against the lockdowns and stay at home orders but also think common sense precautions should be taken when going about one's life. I'd certainly go to a bar or restaurant during off peak hours. At the same time I dont think I'd pack in during happy hour or $1 beer night. Some of the clips, especially in Arizona, are downright insane. People 6 inches away from each other, no face masks, waiting to get into a bar where its elbow to elbow crammed. I guess we will see soon enough.

[Spekulatius]

Yea I am not sure what to make of it. I am now reading about people flocking to bars in droves in Wisconsin, and restaurants in Arizona packed with lines of people waiting hours for a table and keep waiting for the dire warnings to turn into unfortunate realities...but so far, that doesnt seem to be happening. And as it continues to not play out the way many forecasted, it seems the behavior is quickly reverting back to normal. Which of course is great and all if this indeed was blown out of proportion, however if this happens to be premature, it would end up looking unnecessarily reckless.

 

I am against the lockdowns and stay at home orders but also think common sense precautions should be taken when going about one's life. I'd certainly go to a bar or restaurant during off peak hours. At the same time I dont think I'd pack in during happy hour or $1 beer night. Some of the clips, especially in Arizona, are downright insane. People 6 inches away from each other, no face masks, waiting to get into a bar where its elbow to elbow crammed. I guess we will see soon enough.

 

Beware the narrative. Just because you see a picture of a full bar doesn’t meant that it’s a typical situation or they all bars are full. I suspect some people just go out and others don’t yet.

Any pickup in case numbers from lack of social distancing will take about 4-8 weeks to really show. At least in some regions (Georgia) they have reduce the occupancy to a level that will reduce the risk of spread hopefully. We will see how it goes. I don’t think anyone can predict the result exactly.

[ERICOPOLY]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

 

[Guest]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though.

[Cigarbutt]

So I do recall at one point there was a ton of talk about how "reckless" states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas were with their responses and in some gases, lack of lockdowns. How they were going to be major disasters. And so today, out of curiosity I swung back to the numbers and none of those states are currently showing numbers that fit any of the forecasted descriptions. Why do we think this is?

This is a multi-variable question but one thing to consider is how regular people react to a situation. Many headlines (and some of the posts here) suggest that the US population can be divided in two but it seems that people at large have reacted in a much more homogeneous way irrespective for whom they voted or the political affiliation of their governor. You will 'see' the guy in Florida screaming "let's party!" but you won't necessarily hear from the waitress, the teacher or the caretaker but they will tend to respond to the virus appropriately and responsibly without ingesting disinfectant. However it's true that a uniform and consistent message can make a difference at the margin (with appropriate policy etc) and what happens at the margin can be significant with a potentially exponential problem. See the Google Community Mobility reports (the results are crude and imperfect but useful i think) and compare states.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

[ERICOPOLY]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though.

 

We should draft them to do so.  Then they can be draft dodgers.

[Investor20]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though.

 

We should draft them to do so.  Then they can be draft dodgers.

 

This is a straw man argument.  Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood.  I have heard minimum complaints about masks.

 

The UN, Stanford professors argument against lockdown is that the costs are more than gains.  More people can die than they save.

The Harvard Dr. Lipstitch argument (though he specifically did not say he is against lockdown) is whatever one does 40-70% have to get infected.

 

Example of UN argument against lockdown:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7

U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020

 

You are exchanging lives of on average 80 year old for 8 year old kids - that's UN argument against lockdown.

[Liberty]

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

 

The USA has 5% of the world's population, but ~30% of Covid-19 infections and deaths.

 

 

Also:

 

Right-wingers are shooting their reopening plans in the foot by making masking a culture war issue. Universal masking/face shielding is one of the cheapest, least invasive things we could do to reduce transmission.

 

Right-wingers: Won't shelter in place to protect life, because the economy. Won't wear a mask to protect the economy.

 

We've had masking by gubernatorial decree here in New York for weeks, and it's no big deal. It's annoying for about a week and then it just becomes part of getting dressed.

[ERICOPOLY]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though.

 

We should draft them to do so.  Then they can be draft dodgers.

 

This is a straw man argument.  Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood.  I have heard minimum complaints about masks.

 

No, it's not a straw man argument.  It is a joke.

 

The straw man here is bringing up lockdown.  Whether people oppose masks or lockdown more is a separate topic.  The two are linked anyhow;  wear a mask and thereby slowing the spread will likely get us closer to convincing others to agree to lift lockdown.

 

Where I live, the lockdown is unpopular and a minority of people are wearing a mask at the grocery store.  I live in Trump land where most do not wear masks, and labeling them 'draft dodgers' would help them realize that they are not answering their country when it calls.  I mean, the economy is bleeding money and individual vanity/comfort is still winning the day.

 

Masks is more like requiring the hippies to wear a shirt and shoes into the restaurant (the draft dodgers joke).

 

[Liberty]

Focusing on the important things:

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts

[Guest]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though.

 

We should draft them to do so.  Then they can be draft dodgers.

 

This is a straw man argument.  Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood.  I have heard minimum complaints about masks.

 

No, it's not a straw man argument.  It is a joke.

 

The straw man here is bringing up lockdown.  Whether people oppose masks or lockdown more is a separate topic.  The two are linked anyhow;  wear a mask and thereby slowing the spread will likely get us closer to convincing others to agree to lift lockdown.

 

Where I live, the lockdown is unpopular and a minority of people are wearing a mask at the grocery store.  I live in Trump land where most do not wear masks, and labeling them 'draft dodgers' would help them realize that they are not answering their country when it calls.  I mean, the economy is bleeding money and individual vanity/comfort is still winning the day.

 

Masks is more like requiring the hippies to wear a shirt and shoes into the restaurant (the draft dodgers joke).

 

I live in Ohio and whenever I go out (the state could go either way in the election), the vast majority of people have masks. You live in California (hardcore liberal) and they don't have masks? :o

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/amid-the-coronavirus-crisis-a-regimen-for-reentry

Interesting take on the parallel to be made between containment of nosocomial spread and the exit scenarios.

Dr. Gawande describes the four-pillared combination therapy (hygiene measures, screening, distancing and masks) and adds the toughest one to achieve: culture change.

This still leaves open-ended the uncomfortable situation where we are building this plane while it's flying and with still no visible landing site.

Animal spirits will eventually prevail.

[ERICOPOLY]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though.

 

We should draft them to do so.  Then they can be draft dodgers.

 

This is a straw man argument.  Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood.  I have heard minimum complaints about masks.

 

No, it's not a straw man argument.  It is a joke.

 

The straw man here is bringing up lockdown.  Whether people oppose masks or lockdown more is a separate topic.  The two are linked anyhow;  wear a mask and thereby slowing the spread will likely get us closer to convincing others to agree to lift lockdown.

 

Where I live, the lockdown is unpopular and a minority of people are wearing a mask at the grocery store.  I live in Trump land where most do not wear masks, and labeling them 'draft dodgers' would help them realize that they are not answering their country when it calls.  I mean, the economy is bleeding money and individual vanity/comfort is still winning the day.

 

Masks is more like requiring the hippies to wear a shirt and shoes into the restaurant (the draft dodgers joke).

 

I live in Ohio and whenever I go out (the state could go either way in the election), the vast majority of people have masks. You live in California (hardcore liberal) and they don't have masks? :o

 

Most people are not wearing masks in Placer County where I live. 

 

Hardcore liberal?  The density of urban areas explains that perception, but look at this:

https://www.ppic.org/content/images/PoliticalGeogFigure-4_web.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LC]

Focusing on the important things:

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts

 

The definition of lying to some of the people all of the time. So trashy.

 

Well, they can't fake the all-count deaths, at least (yet).

Of which we have ~65,000 excess deaths, broken down by weeks ending:

 

3/28: +4,300

4/4: +12,900

4/11: +20,000

4/18: +17,500

4/25: +10,900

 

[Liberty]

Focusing on the important things:

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts

 

The definition of lying to some of the people all of the time. So trashy.

 

Well, they can't fake the all-count deaths, at least (yet).

Of which we have ~65,000 excess deaths, broken down by weeks ending:

 

3/28: +4,300

4/4: +12,900

4/11: +20,000

4/18: +17,500

4/25: +10,900

 

Trump has always only cared about how things look.

 

That's why he gave gossip to journalists for decades with the only condition that they refer to him as "billionaire Donald Trump" even if he wasn't a billionaire, played a successful businessman on TV even though his businesses were terribly run. He wanted Ukraine to announce an investigation into Biden, didn't care too much about the result, talks like a tough guy even though he's always run away from danger and has the thinnest snowflake skin around (remember when he sent photos of his hands to that journalist for years after he mentioned he had small hands?). Wanted photos ops with medical ships and at some Apple factory in Texas, didn't care that the ship wouldn't be used or the factory already existed and he wasn't really opening it, etc.

 

This is more of the same. He figures if he can change the number, that'll be good enough and much easier than changing the actual health crisis, which he doesn't have the intelligence, competence, discipline, follow-through, empathy, team, etc, to affect much in a positive way.

[ERICOPOLY]

Focusing on the important things:

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts

 

The definition of lying to some of the people all of the time. So trashy.

 

Well, they can't fake the all-count deaths, at least (yet).

Of which we have ~65,000 excess deaths, broken down by weeks ending:

 

3/28: +4,300

4/4: +12,900

4/11: +20,000

4/18: +17,500

4/25: +10,900

 

Trump has always only cared about how things look.

 

That's why he gave gossip to journalists for decades with the only condition that they refer to him as "billionaire Donald Trump" even if he wasn't a billionaire, played a successful businessman on TV even though his businesses were terribly run. He wanted Ukraine to announce an investigation into Biden, didn't care too much about the result, talks like a tough guy even though he's always run away from danger and has the thinnest snowflake skin around (remember when he sent photos of his hands to that journalist for years after he mentioned he had small hands?). Wanted photos ops with medical ships and at some Apple factory in Texas, didn't care that the ship wouldn't be used or the factory already existed and he wasn't really opening it, etc.

 

This is more of the same. He figures if he can change the number, that'll be good enough and much easier than changing the actual health crisis, which he doesn't have the intelligence, competence, discipline, follow-through, empathy, team, etc, to affect much in a positive way.

 

I think one of his best was his "Liberate Michigan!" tweet on April 17th, when his own "stay at home" guideline wasn't set to expire until April 30th.  On April 1st his Surgeon General told the media that he advised America to think of it as a Federal "order" to stay at home.

 

In other words, he blames the economy on the governor when he did nothing but encourage the entire nation to stay at home.

[Liberty]

There it is:

 

 

TRUMP: "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases."

 

Lying about testing more than elsewhere too..

[clutch]

why do you think many people don't trust "experts" on TV? Because the media does things like this...

 

"Greta Thunberg added to CNN’s expert coronavirus panel, Twitter erupts"

 

https://nypost.com/2020/05/13/greta-thunberg-added-to-cnn-expert-covid-19-panel-twitter-erupts/

 

[LongHaul]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

You are entitled to your freedom.

You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others.

[Gregmal]

Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

 

Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another.

Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others.

 

Why is this so hard to accept?  I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.

 

You are entitled to your freedom.

You are not entitled to infringe on the freedom of others.

 

Driving a car is a privilege, not a right. A shop owner should be allowed to stay open. The individual will decide whether or not to enter. This isn't difficult.

[LongHaul]

An exceptional article on Covid 19

 

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them