Guest Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I think Kushner is incredibly incompetent so I might vote for him in hopes that he crashes the system. He might even do a better job at that than Trump. ;D I love how some people have been convinced that "crashing the system" will be good for them, or will somehow lead to what they want to see happen, rather than just the opposite (a society with an even bigger, more corrupt, more incompetent government and fewer freedoms is the most likely outcome of a big crash, not a small, efficient, honest government and more liberty). They're the people who con artists and charlatans just love. I think it would be bad short term but the Great Depression built people of character. The downside of those big events is war though. I wouldn't want that part. I would imagine the corrupt would lose their power since the system that gives them their power would be dead.
Liberty Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html Viral load seems to matter a lot for severity of symptoms. It's why places like Hong Kong quarantine infected people in hotels and away from family.
Liberty Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I think it would be bad short term but the Great Depression built people of character. The downside of those big events is war though. I wouldn't want that part. I would imagine the corrupt would lose their power since the system that gives them their power would be dead. The great depression lead to communists and fascists and dictators taking over a large part of the world, leading to hundreds of millions of deaths and untold suffering. But yeah, it built character ???
Guest Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I think it would be bad short term but the Great Depression built people of character. The downside of those big events is war though. I wouldn't want that part. I would imagine the corrupt would lose their power since the system that gives them their power would be dead. The great depression lead to communists and fascists and dictators taking over a large part of the world. But yeah, it built character ??? I do think you're right in a lot of regards. I was specifically thinking about America but I agree the net might be negative across the world. There could have been a fair amount of luck involved that we didn't end up that way.
Guest cherzeca Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 common sense in the age of covid has found its flag bearer: Shelley Luther https://www.zerohedge.com/health/thousands-donate-gofundme-jailed-salon-owner-who-stood-judge-viral-video
SHDL Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 Why no discussion about Japan? The daily cases show steady decrease after maximum at about 600 in middle of April to now about 180-200. For a crowded, cold country with subways and bullet trains (public transport), old age its pretty good without lockdown. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ This anomaly was apparently what got some people to look into the BCG theory that I posted about a while ago. It has some merit (IMO) and a clinical trial is underway in Australia and a few other places. I hope it proves correct as that would greatly improve the outlook. China always had BCG. UK had till 2005 France till 2007 Spain 1981 Since most people dying are very old, they must be BCG vaccinated in China, UK, France and Spain. I picked Japan though most south east asian countries have low Covid incidence since Japan is cold, with older population, has subways and crowded. If Japan had low incidence because of BCG, China should have had low incidence too and not need lockdown. UK, France and Spain would had low Covid too. http://www.bcgatlas.org/index.php From what I know the data on this isn’t as clear cut as I was hoping. Spain only had it from 1965 to 1981, so it is not clear what % of the elderly there really got it. China claims to have had it for a long time but there were apparently major lapses in vaccine administration especially during the Cultural Revolution. Etc. And to add further confusion, there are some signs that the exact version of the vaccine matters (the Soviet/Japan strain, which is commonly used in East Asia, works better than the Denmark strain, which is/was more commonly used in Western Europe, etc). In any case the clinical trials should help sort this out.
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I think Kushner is incredibly incompetent so I might vote for him in hopes that he crashes the system. He might even do a better job at that than Trump. ;D I love how some people have been convinced that "crashing the system" will be good for them, or will somehow lead to what they want to see happen, rather than just the opposite (a society with an even bigger, more corrupt, more incompetent government and fewer freedoms is the most likely outcome of a big crash, not a small, efficient, honest government and more liberty). They're the people who con artists and charlatans just love. These are the folks who quickly call others out on “being un-American” and people who “are lazy and don’t know how to work hard and it’s their fault they’re poor”, but now it’s “the system has failed me, let’s burn it all down”. These are the folks who would praise Trump defaulting on U.S. credit obligations.
DooDiligence Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 “...out from the door of the farmhouse came a long file of pigs, all walking on their hind legs...out came Napoleon himself, majestically upright, casting haughty glances from side to side, and with his dogs gambolling round him. He carried a whip in his trotter. There was a deadly silence. Amazed, terrified, huddling together, the animals watched the long line of pigs march slowly round the yard. It was as though the world had turned upside-down. Then there came a moment when the first shock had worn off and when, in spite of everything-in spite of their terror of the dogs, and of the habit, developed through long years, of never complaining, never criticising, no matter what happened-they might have uttered some word of protest. But just at that moment, as though at a signal, all the sheep burst out into a tremendous bleating of, "Four legs good, two legs better! Four legs good, two legs better! Four legs good, two legs better!" It went on for five minutes without stopping. And by the time the sheep had quieted down, the chance to utter any protest had passed, for the pigs had marched back into the farmhouse. Several of them would have protested if they could have found the right arguments.”
clutch Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 All right, this is really fucked up... https://globalnews.ca/news/6910721/coronavirus-researcher-shot-dead-pittsburgh/ "U.S. researcher ‘on verge of making very significant’ coronavirus findings shot dead: reports" Killed by another Chinese person...
Viking Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 We are starting to get economic data on what is going on. Looks like 2020 is going to be ugly in Europe. And falling inflation... ‘Recession of historic proportions’: EU predicts 7.5-per-cent contraction in 2020 - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/european-business/article-recession-of-historic-proportions-eu-predicts-75-per-cent/ The European Union predicted Wednesday “a recession of historic proportions this year” due to the impact of the coronavirus as it released its first official estimates of the damage the pandemic is inflicting on the bloc’s economy. The 27-nation EU economy is predicted to contract by 7.5 per cent this year, before growing by about 6 per cent in 2021. The group of 19 nations using the euro as their currency will see a record decline of 7.75 per cent this year, and grow by 6.25 per cent in 2021, the European Commission said in its Spring economic forecast. “It is now quite clear that the EU has entered the deepest economic recession in its history,” EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni told reporters in Brussels. As the virus hit, “economic activity in the EU dropped by around one third practically overnight,” he said. ... The pandemic has hurt consumer spending, industrial output, investment, trade, capital flows and supply chains. It has also hit jobs. The unemployment rate across the 27-nation EU is forecast to rise from 6.7 per cent in 2019 to 9 per cent in 2020 but then fall to around 8 per cent in 2021, the commission said. Beyond that, Gentiloni said, “we will have a massive drop in hours worked.” Inflation is also set to be significantly weaker as consumer prices fall amid a sharp weakening of demand and drop in oil prices. Investment too is likely to contract, with firms expected to postpone or cancel their investment plans amid the uncertainty. Exporters will not be spared, with continued disruption to movements of people, goods and services likely. Thank you, Viking. What are your thoughts on the contraction of NA economies, especially US and Canada. Arcube, i think Canada faces some pretty significant head winds: 1.) oil price decline 2.) virus 3.) housing bubble The big risk for Canada is if the coming severe recession morphs into a housing crash. Imagine the US in 2008 with its housing crisis and then on top of that add the current oil price crash and virus causing worst recession since Great Depression. I call it the three headed horseman. Not to say we get a housing crash (Canada manages mortgages very differently than the US)... but the probability is rising. This is one of the reasons i am being exceptionally careful with my investment portfolio (mostly cash and mostly in US$). Capital preservation is my focus :-) All the forecasts i see for the US are calling for it to experience its worst recession since the Great Depression. With each passing month we will get more economic news and will better understand exactly what is going on under the hood. The big challenge in the near term is the virus is a global event and we are experiencing a global severe recession. When the Recession hit in 2008/09 China ramped up spending and as a result many countries only experienced a mild recession (Canada, Australia and much of EM). Today global leadership/institutions may be at their weakest point since WW2. This just increases the odds of policy mistakes (protectionism, wars etc). The US consumer is in decent shape and the US fixed their banking system. Bottom line, we know the near term is going to be ugly. What happens after that will depend on the path of the virus which is unknowable. I completely understand why Buffett is doing what he is doing (raising cash and waiting to see what the virus does). Graham defines investing as “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.” He said everything else is speculation.
Guest Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I think Kushner is incredibly incompetent so I might vote for him in hopes that he crashes the system. He might even do a better job at that than Trump. ;D I love how some people have been convinced that "crashing the system" will be good for them, or will somehow lead to what they want to see happen, rather than just the opposite (a society with an even bigger, more corrupt, more incompetent government and fewer freedoms is the most likely outcome of a big crash, not a small, efficient, honest government and more liberty). They're the people who con artists and charlatans just love. These are the folks who quickly call others out on “being un-American” and people who “are lazy and don’t know how to work hard and it’s their fault they’re poor”, but now it’s “the system has failed me, let’s burn it all down”. These are the folks who would praise Trump defaulting on U.S. credit obligations. Oh, the system has treated me just fine (actually more than fine). I just call it like it is. ;)
arcube Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 We are starting to get economic data on what is going on. Looks like 2020 is going to be ugly in Europe. And falling inflation... ‘Recession of historic proportions’: EU predicts 7.5-per-cent contraction in 2020 - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/european-business/article-recession-of-historic-proportions-eu-predicts-75-per-cent/ The European Union predicted Wednesday “a recession of historic proportions this year” due to the impact of the coronavirus as it released its first official estimates of the damage the pandemic is inflicting on the bloc’s economy. The 27-nation EU economy is predicted to contract by 7.5 per cent this year, before growing by about 6 per cent in 2021. The group of 19 nations using the euro as their currency will see a record decline of 7.75 per cent this year, and grow by 6.25 per cent in 2021, the European Commission said in its Spring economic forecast. “It is now quite clear that the EU has entered the deepest economic recession in its history,” EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni told reporters in Brussels. As the virus hit, “economic activity in the EU dropped by around one third practically overnight,” he said. ... The pandemic has hurt consumer spending, industrial output, investment, trade, capital flows and supply chains. It has also hit jobs. The unemployment rate across the 27-nation EU is forecast to rise from 6.7 per cent in 2019 to 9 per cent in 2020 but then fall to around 8 per cent in 2021, the commission said. Beyond that, Gentiloni said, “we will have a massive drop in hours worked.” Inflation is also set to be significantly weaker as consumer prices fall amid a sharp weakening of demand and drop in oil prices. Investment too is likely to contract, with firms expected to postpone or cancel their investment plans amid the uncertainty. Exporters will not be spared, with continued disruption to movements of people, goods and services likely. Thank you, Viking. What are your thoughts on the contraction of NA economies, especially US and Canada. Arcube, i think Canada faces some pretty significant head winds: 1.) oil price decline 2.) virus 3.) housing bubble The big risk for Canada is if the coming severe recession morphs into a housing crash. Imagine the US in 2008 with its housing crisis and then on top of that add the current oil price crash and virus causing worst recession since Great Depression. I call it the three headed horseman. Not to say we get a housing crash (Canada manages mortgages very differently than the US)... but the probability is rising. This is one of the reasons i am being exceptionally careful with my investment portfolio (mostly cash and mostly in US$). Capital preservation is my focus :-) All the forecasts i see for the US are calling for it to experience its worst recession since the Great Depression. With each passing month we will get more economic news and will better understand exactly what is going on under the hood. The big challenge in the near term is the virus is a global event and we are experiencing a global severe recession. When the Recession hit in 2008/09 China ramped up spending and as a result many countries only experienced a mild recession (Canada, Australia and much of EM). Today global leadership/institutions may be at their weakest point since WW2. This just increases the odds of policy mistakes (protectionism, wars etc). The US consumer is in decent shape and the US fixed their banking system. Bottom line, we know the near term is going to be ugly. What happens after that will depend on the path of the virus which is unknowable. I completely understand why Buffett is doing what he is doing (raising cash and waiting to see what the virus does). Graham defines investing as “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.” He said everything else is speculation. Thank you, Viking. My concern is that Ottawa is really not going to save the resources sector in WCSB the way a resource economy should for the long term. So much talent is leaving the industry. Idea of capital preservation is absolutely the right way to go about it. Thanks again for sharing your valuable thoughts.
cobafdek Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 Bots, as well as anti-Trumpers deep in TDS, can't recognize negotiation tactics and diplomacy. Chinese propaganda bots have infected CoBF. Examples: If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. What is a China propaganda bot? Is this one? “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” If you have to ask, you've failed the Turing test. What ever happened to 'infidels'? What's up with the newfangled name calling? Such clever propaganda -- all criticisms are just lies from the infidels. You are falling for it head over heels. Yes, anyone who disagrees with them is a 'bot', 'traitor', 'not a patriot', etc. Yet they're the ones who want to deny states suffering from crisis aid and they're the ones who put a sociopath in office that will "destroy the system". They came over from the politics section section because they can't stand by while their dear leader is criticized for his terrible management of the pandemic! Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders... Taleb on the above victims of TDS: ". . . victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. 'Intelligent' people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump"
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 Bots, as well as anti-Trumpers deep in TDS, can't recognize negotiation tactics and diplomacy. Chinese propaganda bots have infected CoBF. Examples: If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. What is a China propaganda bot? Is this one? “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” If you have to ask, you've failed the Turing test. What ever happened to 'infidels'? What's up with the newfangled name calling? Such clever propaganda -- all criticisms are just lies from the infidels. You are falling for it head over heels. Yes, anyone who disagrees with them is a 'bot', 'traitor', 'not a patriot', etc. Yet they're the ones who want to deny states suffering from crisis aid and they're the ones who put a sociopath in office that will "destroy the system". They came over from the politics section section because they can't stand by while their dear leader is criticized for his terrible management of the pandemic! Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders... Taleb on the above victims of TDS: ". . . victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. 'Intelligent' people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump" I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 Bots, as well as anti-Trumpers deep in TDS, can't recognize negotiation tactics and diplomacy. Chinese propaganda bots have infected CoBF. Examples: If you have any facts to share on COVID19 or the response to the crisis, go for it. Otherwise, you're the Trump propaganda bot. What is a China propaganda bot? Is this one? “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!” If you have to ask, you've failed the Turing test. What ever happened to 'infidels'? What's up with the newfangled name calling? Such clever propaganda -- all criticisms are just lies from the infidels. You are falling for it head over heels. Yes, anyone who disagrees with them is a 'bot', 'traitor', 'not a patriot', etc. Yet they're the ones who want to deny states suffering from crisis aid and they're the ones who put a sociopath in office that will "destroy the system". They came over from the politics section section because they can't stand by while their dear leader is criticized for his terrible management of the pandemic! Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders... Taleb on the above victims of TDS: ". . . victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. 'Intelligent' people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump" I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth. When I first saw 'TDS' in usage, I honestly believed it was referring to the blind followers of a man who tells them to turn off the news because you get the truth directly from him on Twitter.
cobafdek Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth. You never asked me about the Wuhan lab theory. For the record, I don't believe it. The plain meaning of Taleb's tweet is clear: when he says "IYIs on Trump," he's talking about you.
samwise Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I think it would be bad short term but the Great Depression built people of character. The downside of those big events is war though. I wouldn't want that part. I would imagine the corrupt would lose their power since the system that gives them their power would be dead. The great depression lead to communists and fascists and dictators taking over a large part of the world. But yeah, it built character ??? I do think you're right in a lot of regards. I was specifically thinking about America but I agree the net might be negative across the world. There could have been a fair amount of luck involved that we didn't end up that way. There was a recent study linking Spanish Flu deaths with voting for Hitler in Germany. Strong correlation which the researchers couldn't explain using alternative factors the researchers looked at. I wouldn't have expected it, but it sort of backs Liberty's point.
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth. You never asked me about the Wuhan lab theory. For the record, I don't believe it. The plain meaning of Taleb's tweet is clear: when he says "IYIs on Trump," he's talking about you. Nah, he's talking about people who underestimated him, but I'm not going to pretend to speak for him. I'll let you (try to) do that. Again, also conveniently leaving out Taleb's criticism of Trump's Wuhan conspiracy. Edit: Darn, broke my rule about not responding to nonsense dwellers.
Viking Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 My concern is that Ottawa is really not going to save the resources sector in WCSB the way a resource economy should for the long term. So much talent is leaving the industry. Idea of capital preservation is absolutely the right way to go about it. Ottawa seems to want the oil/resource sector to shrink. i am just not sure where the growth is going to come from (to replace all we are losing). Especially when you look at all the $ the oil industry has been sending to Ottawa for decades (via equalization payments) which has gone to the less well off regions. Given how equalization payments are calculated there is a multiyear lag (I think) so the money will be drying up right when federal deficits are exploding. There is an obvious answer to who is going to pay for everything in the coming years: consumers and businesses via much, much higher taxes. One big difference with Canada and US is Canada has historically high consumer debt and not terrible federal debt; US is the opposite. So I see a scenario where Canada spends at the Federal level a massive amount in the coming years because they can. It will help in the short term and likely bite in the medium term.
RichardGibbons Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 When I first saw 'TDS' in usage, I honestly believed it was referring to the blind followers of a man who tells them to turn off the news because you get the truth directly from him on Twitter. LOL, yeah, me too. I still think it's a pretty accurate description.
cobafdek Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Edit: Darn, broke my rule about not responding to nonsense dwellers. Finally, we agree. You should stop posting here. Or at least you need to be more careful what you post. Orthopa earlier outed you as a fake MD. Now you're outed as a fake Taleb reader. Nah, he's talking about people who underestimated him, but I'm not going to pretend to speak for him. Taleb: "Everything after the 'but' contradicts what came before." Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders... Taleb says the sunk cost fallacy isn't really a fallacy:
LC Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 No, Taleb is being cheeky in an attempt to appear smart on twitter. If you don't assume what is called a Markov process, then you are left in a much worse (and less sensible) place.
LC Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html We are a well functioning democracy. We are a well functioning democracy. :-X :-X :-X
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html We are a well functioning democracy. We are a well functioning democracy. :-X :-X :-X Questionable contracts have gone to “companies with political connections to the administration,” the complaint said, including a drug company tied to a friend of Jared Kushner’s, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. It said Dr. Bright was retaliated against by his superiors, who pushed him out because of “his efforts to prioritize science and safety over political expediency.” Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time. Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding.
cobafdek Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Another IYI not keeping up! No, Taleb is being cheeky in an attempt to appear smart on twitter. If you don't assume what is called a Markov process, then you are left in a much worse (and less sensible) place. Written like a true bot! Only bots live in Markov processes. The rest of us are in the real world. The real world is non-ergodic. In a non-ergodic world, the so-called "fallacies" and "biases" of behavioral economics are not necessarily irrational.
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