Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Pretty much--All except Italy continue to look exponential to me on mortality, but what do I know? Been posting "useless" exponential graphs since February. Turns out they were not that useless...

 

Sir my graph IS the mortality rate, on log-graph, it clearly shows a decreasing slope therefore no longer exponential.

 

This looks like declining slope to you? Optimistic. Italy much clearer as far as flattening.

 

Hey meiroy, I just revealed a bad trait of mine. I don't read carefully, I agree with you all EXCEPT italy are exponential...... let's just let this drop.

 

Oh it was me you were responding to. Agree, seems like miscommunication and as of yday, mortality in those except in Italy seemed exponential.

 

For completion's sake, let's also remember that it's not just a decline in slope, but a non-linear (curved) line on a logarithmic plot that would indicate non-exponential growth. So, the line could change slope, but if it remains linear on a log graph, it's still an exponential trend, but with a lower growth rate.

[John Hjorth]

For completion's sake, let's also remember that it's not just a decline in slope, but a non-linear (curved) line on a logarithmic plot that would indicate non exponential growth. So, the line could change slope, but if it remains linear on a log graph, it's still an exponential trend, but with a lower growth rate.

 

Exactly, Dalal.Holdings,

 

This is key to understanding. I think it applies to many European countries right now [, meaning we're "not there" yet.]

[Cigarbutt]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Exponential trend continues alarmingly in many countries: U.S., Spain, France, UK, German. Italy *might* be seeing a slope decline/flattening.

Some countries (i.e. UK) have close to 10% dead of confirmed cases which likely indicates lack of testing. This is in contrast to Germany where it's close to 1%. Discrepancy in age of those infected cannot explain such a gap alone.

Here in Iceland there have been tests made by random sampling of the population. Based on random sampling, around 0.3%  of the population tests positive. Obviously, this is not representative for other countries or populations. In Iceland most of the effort has gone to tracing infections and quarantining people who have been in contact with infected people. By now, over 50% of people who test positive are already in quarantine when tested.

https://www.covid.is/data

Yeah, Iceland seems to be doing well, but a small country with a concentrated population in a small area (like Singapore) would be much easier to manage w something like this.

The random sampling showing only 0.3% infected obliterates the "this disease has been widespread for a long time" thesis. Makes you realize how impossible achieving herd immunity will be (without having large magnitude of deaths/healthcare overload).

By now, over 50% of people who test positive are already in quarantine when tested.

That's excellent.

From Iceland link:

  Confirmed infections: 1417

  Total samples:  23640

    (1417/23640) * 100 = 5.99%. 

    How are you getting 0.3%?

Assuming your random sampling comment is correct, 6% of Iceland being infected with a swab test that does not even tell people who are already infected, nonsymptomatic and cleared of virus in a country we dont consider to have Covid outbreak is pretty high.

The Iceland data is really interesting for testing (understand the virus and compare testing strategies globally). There are two vectors for testing: one is targeted and looks similar to many countries, the other is "random" although the methodology does not reach the pure random definition. At first, for the 'random' part, people self-selected and more recently people can accept to be tested after a random call. In the 'random' group, the positive rate has recently been reported at 0.9% and it may be around 1.0% now but is unlikely to be too far from the 'true' number related to the prevalence in the population. There are limitations: sensitivity and specificity of the test, a negative test today does not mean a negative test tomorrow. Although they report a large number (about 50%) of asymptomatic people in the 'random' group, they may catch the disease before the onset of symptoms. However, this (and the age group profile they show) suggests that most people who get CV have mild or no symptoms, especially if young.

The 'random' sampling is done by a genomic sequence entity and the analysis is revealing potentially very potent analytical aspects:

-the virus mutates to a degree so that it becomes different from other CV virus elsewhere once it has reached a country or a region

-the genetic makeup (and possibly previous exposures to other or more benign forms of CV) of the individual appears to be a key independent variable vs risk of becoming really sick

-the virus mutates relatively slowly (good) but it's spreading quite effectively (bad) which makes it quite 'unique', in a way.

[Investor20]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Exponential trend continues alarmingly in many countries: U.S., Spain, France, UK, German. Italy *might* be seeing a slope decline/flattening.

Some countries (i.e. UK) have close to 10% dead of confirmed cases which likely indicates lack of testing. This is in contrast to Germany where it's close to 1%. Discrepancy in age of those infected cannot explain such a gap alone.

Here in Iceland there have been tests made by random sampling of the population. Based on random sampling, around 0.3%  of the population tests positive. Obviously, this is not representative for other countries or populations. In Iceland most of the effort has gone to tracing infections and quarantining people who have been in contact with infected people. By now, over 50% of people who test positive are already in quarantine when tested.

https://www.covid.is/data

Yeah, Iceland seems to be doing well, but a small country with a concentrated population in a small area (like Singapore) would be much easier to manage w something like this.

The random sampling showing only 0.3% infected obliterates the "this disease has been widespread for a long time" thesis. Makes you realize how impossible achieving herd immunity will be (without having large magnitude of deaths/healthcare overload).

By now, over 50% of people who test positive are already in quarantine when tested.

That's excellent.

From Iceland link:

  Confirmed infections: 1417

  Total samples:  23640

    (1417/23640) * 100 = 5.99%. 

    How are you getting 0.3%?

Assuming your random sampling comment is correct, 6% of Iceland being infected with a swab test that does not even tell people who are already infected, nonsymptomatic and cleared of virus in a country we dont consider to have Covid outbreak is pretty high.

The Iceland data is really interesting for testing (understand the virus and compare testing strategies globally). There are two vectors for testing: one is targeted and looks similar to many countries, the other is "random" although the methodology does not reach the pure random definition. At first, for the 'random' part, people self-selected and more recently people can accept to be tested after a random call. In the 'random' group, the positive rate has recently been reported at 0.9% and it may be around 1.0% now but is unlikely to be too far from the 'true' number related to the prevalence in the population. There are limitations: sensitivity and specificity of the test, a negative test today does not mean a negative test tomorrow. Although they report a large number (about 50%) of asymptomatic people in the 'random' group, they may catch the disease before the onset of symptoms. However, this (and the age group profile they show) suggests that most people who get CV have mild or no symptoms, especially if young.

The 'random' sampling is done by a genomic sequence entity and the analysis is revealing potentially very potent analytical aspects:

-the virus mutates to a degree so that it becomes different from other CV virus elsewhere once it has reached a country or a region

-the genetic makeup (and possibly previous exposures to other or more benign forms of CV) of the individual appears to be a key independent variable vs risk of becoming really sick

-the virus mutates relatively slowly (good) but it's spreading quite effectively (bad) which makes it quite 'unique', in a way.

 

Thanks Cigarbutt.  Thats actually pretty helpful.  Can you please provide the reference for 1.0% of random sample is infected?

 

If its 1% infected and its true representative of Iceland population with Iceland population of 350K gives

3500 infected in Iceland.

 

The four deaths in Iceland gives (4/3500)*100 = 0.1% fatality rate

About same as flu.

[Gregmal]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-many-to-blame-for-coronavirus-crisis-so-dont-bother-goodwin/

 

Good opinion piece on the "blame game" everyone wants to play.

[minten]

For completion's sake, let's also remember that it's not just a decline in slope, but a non-linear (curved) line on a logarithmic plot that would indicate non-exponential growth. So, the line could change slope, but if it remains linear on a log graph, it's still an exponential trend, but with a lower growth rate.

 

Or, alternatively, instead of looking at "Total" (cases or deaths) charts, yoiu look at "Per day" (cases or deaths) charts, and see what those tell you about how things are really going in Europe.

[meiroy]

Iceland data:

https://www.covid.is/data

 

[cubsfan]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-many-to-blame-for-coronavirus-crisis-so-dont-bother-goodwin/

 

Good opinion piece on the "blame game" everyone wants to play.

 

Excellent article, particularly as it lays out timelines of politician's and media blunders so conveniently buried for self-interest...

 

 

What's the point? Author's summary:

 

Clearly, few people in public life will emerge unscathed from the blame game if we ask everyone the same questions: What did you know, when did you know it and what did you do about it?

 

On the other hand, mutual destruction is neither required nor desirable, and there is a better option. We can just skip the blame game for now and work together to help America get through this worst of times.

 

Think of that as the patriotic choice.

[Guest cherzeca]

report from pulmonologist/ER MD in Jax:  things are very quiet at hospital.  no elective surgeries, no visitors.  10 corona patients, 2 in ICU, all doing well.  hospital set up drive through testing center outside hospital.  of >300 tests (all MD referred showing flu-like symptoms), 5 test positive for corona.

 

you will not read this in the media.

[Cigarbutt]

Thats actually pretty helpful.  Can you please provide the reference for 1.0% of random sample is infected?

If its 1% infected and its true representative of Iceland population with Iceland population of 350K gives

3500 infected in Iceland.

The four deaths in Iceland gives (4/3500)*100 = 0.1% fatality rate

About same as flu.

https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/icelands-coronavirus-testing-global-pandemic-response/

The article is dated April 2nd.

[Sportgamma]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Exponential trend continues alarmingly in many countries: U.S., Spain, France, UK, German. Italy *might* be seeing a slope decline/flattening.

Some countries (i.e. UK) have close to 10% dead of confirmed cases which likely indicates lack of testing. This is in contrast to Germany where it's close to 1%. Discrepancy in age of those infected cannot explain such a gap alone.

Here in Iceland there have been tests made by random sampling of the population. Based on random sampling, around 0.3%  of the population tests positive. Obviously, this is not representative for other countries or populations. In Iceland most of the effort has gone to tracing infections and quarantining people who have been in contact with infected people. By now, over 50% of people who test positive are already in quarantine when tested.

https://www.covid.is/data

Yeah, Iceland seems to be doing well, but a small country with a concentrated population in a small area (like Singapore) would be much easier to manage w something like this.

The random sampling showing only 0.3% infected obliterates the "this disease has been widespread for a long time" thesis. Makes you realize how impossible achieving herd immunity will be (without having large magnitude of deaths/healthcare overload).

By now, over 50% of people who test positive are already in quarantine when tested.

That's excellent.

From Iceland link:

  Confirmed infections: 1417

  Total samples:  23640

    (1417/23640) * 100 = 5.99%. 

    How are you getting 0.3%?

Assuming your random sampling comment is correct, 6% of Iceland being infected with a swab test that does not even tell people who are already infected, nonsymptomatic and cleared of virus in a country we dont consider to have Covid outbreak is pretty high.

The Iceland data is really interesting for testing (understand the virus and compare testing strategies globally). There are two vectors for testing: one is targeted and looks similar to many countries, the other is "random" although the methodology does not reach the pure random definition. At first, for the 'random' part, people self-selected and more recently people can accept to be tested after a random call. In the 'random' group, the positive rate has recently been reported at 0.9% and it may be around 1.0% now but is unlikely to be too far from the 'true' number related to the prevalence in the population. There are limitations: sensitivity and specificity of the test, a negative test today does not mean a negative test tomorrow. Although they report a large number (about 50%) of asymptomatic people in the 'random' group, they may catch the disease before the onset of symptoms. However, this (and the age group profile they show) suggests that most people who get CV have mild or no symptoms, especially if young.

The 'random' sampling is done by a genomic sequence entity and the analysis is revealing potentially very potent analytical aspects:

-the virus mutates to a degree so that it becomes different from other CV virus elsewhere once it has reached a country or a region

-the genetic makeup (and possibly previous exposures to other or more benign forms of CV) of the individual appears to be a key independent variable vs risk of becoming really sick

-the virus mutates relatively slowly (good) but it's spreading quite effectively (bad) which makes it quite 'unique', in a way.

 

There are actually three vectors for testing if you look at the self-selected group and the random sampling as two separate ones. If you take the self-selected testing out of the Decode data, the infection rate of the random group is around 0.3%, although the latest published numbers are only from a sample of 950.

 

https://www.visir.is/g/2020139435d/slembi-ur-tak-is-lenskrar-erfda-greiningar-synir-0-3-prosent-smit-uti-i-sam-fe-laginu

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

There are actually three vectors for testing if you look at the self-selected group and the random sampling as two separate ones. If you take the self-selected testing out of the Decode data, the infection rate of the random group is around 0.3%, although the latest published numbers are only from a sample of 950.

 

https://www.visir.is/g/2020139435d/slembi-ur-tak-is-lenskrar-erfda-greiningar-synir-0-3-prosent-smit-uti-i-sam-fe-laginu

 

Strong work! Helps a lot w estimating prevalence. However we must also account for the fact that recovered patients will also test negative (unless antibody testing done), but I assign low probability that recovered cases would shoot that 0.3% up drastically, certainly not up to 30% or greater (remember, herd immunity takes 60% or more).

[John Hjorth]

Has anybody been reading about people going into China, and the tests and interim conclusions/findings about that?

[ERICOPOLY]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-many-to-blame-for-coronavirus-crisis-so-dont-bother-goodwin/

 

Good opinion piece on the "blame game" everyone wants to play.

 

Don't forget "all the problems" that Trump inherited from Obama.  In other words, the blame game is a well-worn tool in Trump's chest.  This article tries hard but falls well short of exonerating Trump.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

For completion's sake, let's also remember that it's not just a decline in slope, but a non-linear (curved) line on a logarithmic plot that would indicate non exponential growth. So, the line could change slope, but if it remains linear on a log graph, it's still an exponential trend, but with a lower growth rate.

 

Exactly, Dalal.Holdings,

 

This is key to understanding. I think it applies to many European countries right now [, meaning we're "not there" yet.]

 

Yeah John--I wonder: shelter in place/lockdowns may not eliminate exponential growth, but merely reduce the rate of compounding for a while as there are people who do not/cannot comply with lock downs and thereby spread it among themselves (so it's still exponential, but reduced rate of growth). So the slope may be reduced on a log graph, but the trend still linear...

 

However, Italy does seem to be (finally) flattening which is an encouraging sign.

[cwericb]

Couple of questions that have been nagging at me so I will just throw them out there.

 

How do we know when this thing is over?

 

One person can spread the virus to dozens of others, correct? And each one of those can spread it to numerous others so it spreads on an exponancial basis.

 

So a long as even a few people in the world has the virus, how do we return to normal life with a normal economy?

 

So aside from finding effective treatments and a vaccine, how can anyone say it will not continue to spread unless we know that no one has it?

[gfp]

re: how do we know when its over -

 

Ubiquitous antibody tests - cheap online through amazon and the like, and then a widely distributed and adopted vaccine.  Fully back to normal may never happen.  Some behaviors will change permanently.  But back to normal-ish could be scalable vaccine availability and adoption

[minten]

One person can spread the virus to dozens of others, correct? And each one of those can spread it to numerous others so it spreads on an exponancial basis.

 

Without any containment measures whatsoever the WHO estimates one person with this virus affects 2.5 others.  So, while one particular person might spread it to dozens of others, on average they don't (unlike measles for example).

[Dalal.Holdings]

It all comes down to curve flattening and healthcare overload prevention.

 

Furthermore, leave time for potential positive black swans (summer reducing spread/severity, effective treatment, vaccine development) to emerge.

[cubsfan]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-many-to-blame-for-coronavirus-crisis-so-dont-bother-goodwin/

 

Good opinion piece on the "blame game" everyone wants to play.

 

Don't forget "all the problems" that Trump inherited from Obama.  In other words, the blame game is a well-worn tool in Trump's chest.  This article tries hard but falls well short of exonerating Trump.

 

Don't worry about the legacy issues he inherited from Obama - he's destroyed most of them already, thank goodness. He can handle it.

 

The identity politics and political correctness monsters are still out there (thank you Barrack for dividing the country, instead of uniting us- your lasting legacy)

 

When this is finished: the fake news will be forever tarnished, China will get fixed, Iran will be in their rightful place for the good of the world, and

Trump will rebuild America by delivering back jobs forever.

 

Oh, yea, only if Trump is re-elected - since NO Democrats OR Republican has the guts to do the right thing for the American people.

[Guest]

Indeed, Obama is the Divider in Chief. His division and derision for the middle class brought us Trump.

[cubsfan]

Indeed, Obama is the Divider in Chief. His division and derision for the middle class brought us Trump.

 

THAT IS EXACTLY RIGHT.

 

Many people still do not understand populism - you can be a billionaire and still be a populist.

 

And in that regard, I have to hand it to Bernie Sanders - he's a genuine populist, not an community organizer turned elitist like Obama.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Indeed, Obama is the Divider in Chief. His division and derision for the middle class brought us Trump.

 

Well, we have finally come full circle, folks. Trump an inadequate President? OBAMA'S FAULT!

[cwericb]

And back to the Coronavirus...

 

“Without any containment measures whatsoever the WHO estimates one person with this virus affects 2.5 others.”

 

So let’s round it off to 3 people. If each of those 3 spread it to 3 more and they spread it to 3 more (already we are up to 81 people) and each of them spread it to 3 more. I mean, in a matter of a week that one single person could have essentially infected thousands.

 

So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon.

[Guest]

It's Obama's fault that Trump became President. People are angry, on drugs and/or have no/low paying jobs.

 

People are called xenophobic if they are proud of their country. They are called bigots if they believe in God. They are called racists if they support police officers.