Coronavirus

[Jurgis]

Try a Costco or even better a Superwalmart next and see how it goes.

 

I don't shop at Costco or Walmart.

[Cigarbutt]

El Paso, Texas reaches hospitalization capacity.

Apologies for the critical addition but it is meant to be constructive.

What is happening in many places in the US with the recent upswing in viral activity is that hospital capacity may be tested (yes even in the land of Regeneron). With the seasonal factor and other facilitating factors and with the added new dimension that the virus is now spreading even more predominantly in rural areas, reaching hospitals with limited experience in dealing with the disease and its consequences, it's possible that some treatment teams may have to apply "crisis standards of care". i'm used to socialized care so this is nothing new on my side of the border. This is an aspect that can be dealt with reasonably when there are mismatches between supply and demand but can turn into death panel-type discussions very rapidly, especially if you're not used to deal with the delicate balance.

Anyways, some US hospitals may have to come up with improvised ways to deal with this: who gets care and who doesn't and some people will be sent home, their terminal home. It has already happened in NY, GA etc earlier during the pandemic. In my area, when the pandemic reached climax during the spring, plans were made (but not applied, barely) in order to form three-people committees (2 peer-recognized MDs and an administrator) in order to allocate vital resources in case of system overload. Realizing that the US has reached this stage in some areas (with all the wealth and excess capacity) is simply mind boggling.

If you have time and interest, this came out from Texas recently and it's quite interesting:

https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/covid-19/assets/modeling.pdf

-----

BTW, i try to stay away from political discussions but noticed earlier that you had commented about Mr. John Oliver and the legal tension with a certain coal baron. i stayed silent in that thread but would have appreciated the details in his application to be compensated for occupational black-lung disease. But he died.

https://www.mining.com/web/robert-murray-outspoken-coal-miner-who-battled-epa-dies-at-80/

[Spekulatius]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

 

Hording confirmed from my wife‘s sources in the Bay Area ( Asian people tend to be early). Long lines in grocery stores & Costco, some paper goods and Ramen noodles sold out etc.

 

We have seen this before....

 

So, it wasn’t just me. Animal instincts are much earlier on display in a Walmart than in Wegman‘s:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-ceo-consumers-are-stocking-up-again-as-coronavirus-rages-on-174308762.html

[Gregmal]

Riots in Italy over lockdowns....good for them. The political power grabs need to stop. You had 6 months to prepare "the system"...if you didnt do your job, you dont just get to rob citizens of their freedoms.

[Spekulatius]

Riots in Italy over lockdowns....good for them. The political power grabs need to stop. You had 6 months to prepare "the system"...if you didnt do your job, you dont just get to rob citizens of their freedoms.

 

Hmm. According to BBC, the citizen seeking freedom are:

But a mix of far-right and far-left agitators, organised crime groups and bored football hooligans have sensed an opening, looting shops and clashing with police.

 

I guess one just has to distinguish between peaceful protestors and rioters.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54701042

 

Maybe there is more too it. I think the lockdown 2.0 will be more targeted towards known transmission vectors and in hotspots and less broad.

[Gregmal]

No idea. It seems anyone protesting these days is an extremist. Ive never understood it, or flying a flag, or bumper stickers, or any of that stuff but thats just me.

 

I hope lessons were learned with the lockdowns and how destructive they are. Especially now that theres better understanding and significantly lower death rates. If China can build a massive hospital in 8 days you'd hope these idiots could figure shit out for a hospital setting in 6 months. Targeting hotspots makes sense to a degree. However even there, Florida for instance basically just shut indoor dining at bars and otherwise let the thing run its course....theyre fine. Despite record cases in aggregate it seems the pattern hasn't changed. You had your first states get walloped in March/April, then the next regions in June/July, and now a separate set of regions is taking it on the chin. Those that have re-opened, have seen the predicted bumps, but no massive reversions to previous levels, which one can hold their breathe, is a positive. Of course this can always change.

[DocSnowball]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

 

Hording confirmed from my wife‘s sources in the Bay Area ( Asian people tend to be early). Long lines in grocery stores & Costco, some paper goods and Ramen noodles sold out etc.

 

We have seen this before....

 

So, it wasn’t just me. Animal instincts are much earlier on display in a Walmart than in Wegman‘s:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-ceo-consumers-are-stocking-up-again-as-coronavirus-rages-on-174308762.html

 

Connecticut recorded 2047 cases on October 25th. The only other day more cases (2109) were recorded in our state during the pandemic was April 22nd. While those numbers were a gross underrepresentation back then, we are no doubt seeing a very significant and sustained uptick now.

[cubsfan]

 

I hope lessons were learned with the lockdowns and how destructive they are. Especially now that theres better understanding and significantly lower death rates.

 

Chicago's mayor and Illinois governor learned nothing. They are closing down Chicago bars/restaurants, remains to be seen what else.

I'm not sure it's going to work this time- the backlash is building over these know-it-alls....

[Dalal.Holdings]

“Certain areas that are heated up right now,” Trump said at a rally in Omaha, Nebraska. “They’ll go down. They’ll go down very quickly. They’ll be down within two weeks, they’re figuring.”

 

The president said again on Tuesday that the country is “turning that corner” and pledged the virus would go away with or without a vaccine. He accused the news media of covering the pandemic in order to damage him politically and said the day after Election Day, “you won’t be hearing that much” about it.

 

Coronavirus cases are soaring in states across the U.S. and hospitalizations are up at least 10% in the past week in 32 states, putting strain on the nation’s health care system.

 

Quadrupling down on the “pretend it will go away” strategy...and spiking in the very states he is/has held maskless rallies (and Trump/his staff/Pence’s staff have all had it in the past 6 weeks...).

 

Superspreader-in-chief!

 

Are we Great Again or what?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/trump-says-midwest-heated-up-with-coronavirus-cases

[clutch]

Anyone watched the World Series finale last night? Justin Turner was confirmed positive in the middle of the game and he was pulled out. Then, after the Dodgers won, he came out to celebrate with his teammates and family and friends. Hugging with everyone and even took his mask to take pictures.

 

I have no judgment on his actions, but his teammates' support of him shed some light on what many people think about this virus...

 

“That man, more than anybody, deserves to take a picture with that trophy, celebrate with us, have his family around and enjoy this moment. That got taken away from him, and that’s just not right. That doesn’t sit well with me," shortstop and World Series MVP Corey Seager told reporters.

 

"He's part of the team," outfielder Mookie Betts said. "Forget all that, he's part of the team. We're not excluding him from anything."

 

https://www.tsn.ca/report-justin-turner-adamant-on-joining-world-series-celebration-1.1544743

 

 

[Gregmal]

Yea that was pretty awesome to see the team rally around him. Great to see fans as well. We will see how many of them die. Folks need to stop living in fear and buying into the sensationalism. Seems every place in Europe is on their way towards some form or another of shutdowns...a darn shame. Thats the bureaucrat way. Which is possibly what we're looking at here if Biden gets in...granted it would likely be February by the time anything happens, but still. Its gotten absurd.

 

Similarly and on a personal level, my father and his sister have kind of butted heads recently over this. Their mother, 97 years old, lives with my Aunt in Reno. Twice a year she flies to Florida to stay with my father. My father and his sister are on opposite ends of the political spectrum. My Aunt is also married to a typical New England finance guy. So 97 year old Grandma wants to come see everyone, but her daughter and husband are vehemently objecting on the ground of how unsafe it is. Granda's take? I'm 97, my life expectancy is probably what? 1-3 years regardless. Ive lived through Hitler and WW2(in Austria), and a whole bunch else that came after. I'll be damned if I spend my remaining years hiding in a bedroom in my daughters house. She takes every precaution imaginable, but otherwise tries to live as normal as possible. Meanwhile theres people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s behaving like scared children after watching a horror movie....Sensibility is needed.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Well...here's the truth. It doesn't matter how rational you think you are on your take on the virus. People will react the way they want to react, there is no convincing them. People are conditioned to a deadlier virus that has become safer, yes. People in general are a lot more risk averse than those alive 100 years ago. And what are you going to be able to do about that? Will you be able to convince them to think differently? You can say they're irrational, but the goal here is to anticipate human behavior, not try to rationalize it. Can you explain some guy's loyalty to Coca Cola vs Pepsi? It's not rational but it has investing implications.

 

Lockdown or staying open, it doesn't matter: the economy takes a large hit as long as the virus is circulating. Large segments of the population choose to restrict their own activity--whether you believe they are behaving rationally or not. Even if a few who don't care resume their normal activities, the economy takes a hit on many fronts because of those who choose not to.

 

Sweden--which stayed open--had 8.6% GDP drop in Q2, its largest in 40 years.

 

The best thing that can happen for the economy is you control the virus early, minimize case load & spread and that will allow the economy to function. The shorter the duration of the epidemic, the shorter the duration (and magnitude) of resulting economic damage. Having maskless political rallies and politicizing things like mask wearing or hoping "it will go away soon" is very counterproductive to achieving these goals...

 

Otherwise--there are plenty of "rational" reasons for even less risky people to avoid the virus even if they may not die--spread to at risk relatives (many younger folks live with older folks and cannot isolate), egregious medical bills (do you know how much a night in the hospital or ICU costs in America?), litigious population (why a business owner may not want to reopen), etc

 

Controlling the spread is the key. The Asian countries and NZ got it and now they get packed stadiums and economic activity. Sweden, USA and the rest don't. Europe had a nice summer I guess and there's a chance they control this again more swiftly than the U.S., but we'll have to see.

[Peregrine]

About Sweden....

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

It's almost like cases, ICU admissions, and deaths don't occur at the same time...

 

Not wasting further time on whether or not Covid is deadly or "like the Flu". It's the end of October 2020 and a waste of time to debate this. I will say that CFR has likely declined since Feb-Mar due to multiple factors.

 

Regardless of whether you believe covid is real or not, the economic damage in a region will occur as cases rise because a lot of people do take it seriously from a psychological perspective. You can disagree with them and complain about it all you want, but you can't change the fact that economic activity will take a hit when the virus is out of control because these folks will reduce economic activity--with or without lockdowns. It happened in Sweden and it'll happen elsewhere.

 

That's why to help the economy, the best thing you can do is to try and mimic the East Asian Countries/NZ and stop the spread. The worst thing you can do is encourage its spread and duration...

[Peregrine]

Of course it's real, just not nearly as bad as many make it out to be and certainly not worth the collateral damage of the extreme measures taken so far in an attempt to counteract it.

[Peregrine]

Oh, and more on Sweden's economy:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/swedish-gdp-set-to-trounce-euro-zone-u-s-and-even-top-nordics?sref=79DyzZ1p

[Cigarbutt]

Of course it's real, just not nearly as bad as many make it out to be and certainly not worth the collateral damage of the extreme measures taken so far in an attempt to counteract it.

Have you considered the possibility that the difference between a)spontaneous individual actions, b)how people react to recommendations and c)how people react to rules may not be different in the extreme?

Also, do you think that 'measures' (whatever the origin) improved, had not effect or worsened virus-related health outcomes (let's forget about the costs for this part of the argument)?

Also, how do you explain the divergent evolution between the US and Sweden after the first phase (percent positive rates, excess mortality)? Do you actually think that 'extreme measures' are explaining the wide and persistent difference?

BTW, i agree that costs have been (and will be) significant. But i wonder if you can help clarify the benefits, if any.

[samwise]

Agree with CB on multiple effects apart from just mandates. E.g. Ontario had a spike in cases and the premier today claimed improvement. How? A combined effect I think.

 

Government action: closing bars, indoor dining and gyms.

 

People action: the school board was offering choice between virtual and in person attendance. 10% of people switched to virtual in one of our kid’s. schools. There were probably other changes in behaviour whose net effect was reduced social mingling.

[Investor20]

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-increasing-bipartisan-majority-americans-support-mask-wearing/

"92 percent of 2,200 Americans polled say they wear a face mask when leaving their home, with 74 percent saying they “always” do. That “always” percentage is up nearly a quarter since July, according to the poll, which has a 2 percent margin of error."

October 5th article

 

Already 92% are wearing masks in US.  Cases are going up. Does it tell us masks work?

 

 

 

[Viking]

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-increasing-bipartisan-majority-americans-support-mask-wearing/

"92 percent of 2,200 Americans polled say they wear a face mask when leaving their home, with 74 percent saying they “always” do. That “always” percentage is up nearly a quarter since July, according to the poll, which has a 2 percent margin of error."

October 5th article

 

Already 92% are wearing masks in US.  Cases are going up. Does it tell us masks work?

 

Sorry, not sure if you are serious or not with your question?

 

Masks are one of the most effective tools to slow the spread of the virus. There are other tools as well.

 

There are also lots of behaviours that accelerate the spread of the virus. The White House Supreme Court Party that became a super spreader event is one example. Now my guess is every participant in that White House event would say they ‘wear a mask every time they leave the house’.

 

If people do stupid things then the virus will spread. The more stupid the faster the spread. Not rocket science. But the REAL problem the US has right now is Trump has, in his usual style, thrown gasoline all over the efforts and communication from virus experts and health care professionals. There is no unified approach. The US is learning that having an arsonist in charge can be lethal.

 

PS: mistakes will be made along the way. They need to be owned, with the learnings becoming part of future actions. But that is not possible under Trump because he refuses to admit he has made any errors; if fact, he ‘double downs’ on errors compounding them further.

 

PS2: Europe has also messed up. The pressure to open the economy up/let families live normal lives is real. So rational politicians/people push the limits. How do you know when you have gone too far? Case counts spike. Then you go the other way. Just what was anticipated back in March in the Hammer and the Dance article.

[Investor20]

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-increasing-bipartisan-majority-americans-support-mask-wearing/

"92 percent of 2,200 Americans polled say they wear a face mask when leaving their home, with 74 percent saying they “always” do. That “always” percentage is up nearly a quarter since July, according to the poll, which has a 2 percent margin of error."

October 5th article

 

Already 92% are wearing masks in US.  Cases are going up. Does it tell us masks work?

 

Sorry, not sure if you are serious or not with your question?

 

Masks are one of the most effective tools to slow the spread of the virus. There are other tools as well.

 

There are also lots of behaviours that accelerate the spread of the virus. The White House Supreme Court Party that became a super spreader event is one example. Now my guess is every participant in that White House event would say they ‘wear a mask every time they leave the house’.

 

If people do stupid things then the virus will spread. The more stupid the faster the spread. Not rocket science. But the REAL problem the US has right now is Trump has, in his usual style, thrown gasoline all over the efforts and communication from virus experts and health care professionals. There is no unified approach. The US is learning that having an arsonist in charge can be lethal.

 

PS: mistakes will be made along the way. They need to be owned, with the learnings becoming part of future actions. But that is not possible under Trump because he refuses to admit he has made any errors; if fact, he ‘double downs’ on errors compounding them further.

 

PS2: Europe has also messed up. The pressure to open the economy up/let families live normal lives is real. So rational politicians/people push the limits. How do you know when you have gone too far? Case counts spike. Then you go the other way. Just what was anticipated back in March in the Hammer and the Dance article.

 

How do you know masks work in real life?  What data you have?

 

I posted this earlier "People in Italy, Spain, France and the UK wear face masks in public more than the other countries. (YouGov)"

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/face-masks-europe-face-coverings-uk-laws-144339504.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8_cT1tb3N0K21hc2srdXNlZCt5b3Vnb3YrZXVyb3BlJnQ9ZmZzYiZhdGI9djE1OC0xJmlhPXdlYg&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA967tI-RUSlkFB8G-qWhz6eCQgl3EL7_D2v6dK3wIG7tu0MigQixlPIV3vrfmaR6lLjdUPVuvtyqxCtJRmsq5CcVTzMOVxXPnPfLc5t1WIijM3g99bGf1nZZFiFlQrAY-y3OFCCnGbyxMk3a6NSLpj1xrTYmBcvQN0b26FLd2IV

 

We know these four countries (Italy, Spain, France and UK) now are in lockdown with spike in cases.

 

How do you know beyond your pronouncements without presenting any data to back yourself that masks in real life work to reduce the virus spread?

 

You say if only people wear masks.  According to National Georgraphic 92% are already wearing masks in US. Are you saying instead of 92%, if 98% wear masks, it would make dramatic difference?  Is there any data for such a statement?

[Cardboard]

"But the REAL problem the US has right now is Trump has, in his usual style, thrown gasoline all over the efforts and communication from virus experts and health care professionals. There is no unified approach. The US is learning that having an arsonist in charge can be lethal."

 

I look at Quebec with 1,000 new cases a day for a place of 7 millions, with masks being enforced with fines in place, no gathering permitted, restaurants, gyms closed in majority of Province, a government that has plexiglass between 3 top government officials at every press conference, highly left leaning.

 

Meanwhile, Vermont next door to Quebec reports 29 cases a day. But, yeah Trump must be the issue....

 

Cardboard

[Liberty]

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

[Spekulatius]

In Europe at least and I suspect in the US many new cases are do ing from family and friends get-togethers. Also note that in Europe restaurants and bars (the differences tend to be more marginal in Europe) have been open.

 

In neither occasions, people wear masks. We have Thanksgiving coming up, which likely will cause another spike in cases.

 

[vinod1]

Mistaking Absence of Evidence for Evidence of Absence

 

“There is no evidence that masks work”, I kept hearing repeated to me by the usual idiots calling themselves “evidence based” scientists. The point is that there is no evidence that locking the door tonight will prevent me from being burglarized. But everything that may block transmission could help. Unlike school, real life is not about certainties. When in doubt, use what protection you can. Some invoked the flawed rationalization that masks induce false confidence: in fact there is a strong argument that masks makes one more alert to the risks and more conservative in behavior.

 

https://medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade-7de897b517b7

 

Taleb article, The Masks Masquerade