Coronavirus

[Jurgis]

Also: Coronavirus roundtable update (just a funny tiktok video):

 

 

Tiktok video? Clearly sponsored by CCP.

[DocSnowball]

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

 

Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

 

I am pretty sure the infection rates will be going down near term, but predicting the infection rates really didn’t help much predicting the stock market at all.

I also think come fall and in particular post Thanksgiving, the Infection rates will start rising again most likely. However by then, the election Outcome is likely more important for the stock market.

 

No I don't think it will rise again in the fall to Thanksgiving.

Maybe COVID will not help predicting the stock market but this is the COVID thread so discussion of COVID going forward should be the top priority here.

 

@Muscleman - I have a healthy respect for you not having confirmation bias, and for others following Coronavirus on this thread (kudos to your stamina and patience). Trying to think about how this is unfolding in the 6-12 mo, or let's call it pre-vaccine timeframe. I do want to question your thesis.

 

My perception is that the virus numbers do go down after a peak. Is that from herd immunity? No hard proof of that. I think it is more likely due to people changing their behavior and doing more social distancing once cases, hospitalizations and deaths in their vicinity go up. Whether a county or country's numbers are low or high, the same pattern seems to be prevailing. Up, then down, then up a little when behavior eases, forcing behavior change again. When will herd immunity be reached is a question I do not have any confidence in answering - likely sooner in lower income countries where people are forced to go out (at a high health cost), and likely much later when the vaccine arrives in other countries.

 

The second order effects of that thinking are the economically I don't see activity going back to baseline, just petering at 70-80% of prior except for what can be done from home or online, until either vaccine is given or infection happens to a large % of people, perhaps 50-60%. So I'm preparing for a prolonged slowdown even if there is confidence that numbers will go down, because they will go down due to social distancing and reduced activity rather than everyone being immune and being able to do whatever they'd like to do. In a sense, pain and losses mounting slowly but surely on the economic front. I actually think on the health front we may end up doing ok with less flu deaths and a lot of people being cautious in the wintertime, but I've been wrong so much by now I've stopped trusting my own predictions!

 

 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

 

Holy sh*t.

An overnight camp in Georgia required all campers and staff to have a negative covid test < 12 days of camp start. Day 3 of camp, a counselor got chills and tested positive.  Camp quickly closed. 44% of those at the camp were got infected.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm?s_cid=mm6931e1_e&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM34023#T1_down

 

Look at the attack rates!

 

The kids were cohorting by cabin, but not reportedly wearing masks and were doing a lot of loud singing / chanting (as campers do).

Hopefully none of these kids will be too sick.

But the contagiousness of this disease is just breathtaking.

[RichardGibbons]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/how-jared-kushners-secret-testing-plan-went-poof-into-thin-air

 

How Jared Kushner’s Secret Testing Plan “Went Poof Into Thin Air”

 

The part that I find interesting with this is the comment that the virus was mostly hitting blue states, and that if the federal government didn't act (thereby allowing lots of people to die) they could blame it on the Democratic governors to gain a political advantage. And that's exactly how it shook out here on CoBaF.

 

Propaganda's been around for centuries, and pretty well everyone knows what it is. But even so, control of a propaganda network has transformed otherwise sensible people into amplifiers of fascist spin. It's remarkable.

[Gregmal]

Well, we had an inflection point with this thread around late February. Efforts were made at first to remain objective, but then once it became clear Sanjeev had no interest in keeping this non-political, it became fair game to shoot back at all the liberal propagandists. Off the rails it went, indeed. Lets not pretend its one sided though.

 

HCQ has become a battleground issue...no idea why. NY deaths were Trumps fault. Florida and Texas were out of hospital capacity "any day now", almost 2 months ago... along with their death rates supposedly going to match NY/NJ's "in two weeks", for months now. Most sensible people know most of the narratives on both sides are bullshit, but if thats the game thats going to be played out here, so be it.

[Liberty]

The idea that it's possible to talk about the US' response to the pandemic without talking about the federal government is just bonkers.

 

Strange that all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical" (translation: Don't criticize Trump) are Trump apologists. Pretty sure that if Obama had bungled things this badly, they would be singing a different tune.

 

Fact is, responses to epidemics are inherently collective action problems, and governments will be at the center of any response, so talking about it means talking about the government.

 

Feel free not to click on the thread if you want to stay in your bubble where the feds have nothing to do with this disaster, though.

[Spekulatius]

 

Note: the post has been edited for spelling errors (there may be one or two left but i have to go; i accompany my father-in-law (who bears very real and significant risk factors) for a test at the hospital).

 

I wish you and your family the best. I hope your daughter and your dad and your family are OK. It’s very difficult to contain COVID-19 when someone in the family has it.

 

Also, thank your patience going through the study results. Brandolini‘s law is very real issue here.

[Gregmal]

The idea that it's possible to talk about the US' response to the pandemic without talking about the federal government is just bonkers.

 

Strange that all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical" (translation: Don't criticize Trump) are Trump apologists. Pretty sure that if Obama had bungled things this badly, they would be singing a different tune.

 

Fact is, responses to epidemics are inherently collective action problems, and governments will be at the center of any response, so talking about it means talking about the government.

 

Feel free not to click on the thread if you want to stay in your bubble where the feds have nothing to do with this disaster, though.

 

Except for that fact that, many people, including me, have acknowledged Trump's actions have been poor in many cases. What you're leaving out is your glaring neglect of any other facet or shared "blame", because it doesnt fit the agenda. Somehow, in an effort to highlight how much society has degraded in terms of its reliance on "credible sources", we've gone from "Wikipedia isn't a great source" to now Twitter being the primary go to for many....

 

I'm fine being political, Im fine being "apolitical". Same cant be said for everyone, most of them will likely disappear for good when the new site launches in September. You cant possibly claim to not have an agenda, when 90% of what gets posted has the same undertone to it. You also cant sit here and seriously make the case "government should have encouraged masks earlier, its the only vaccine we have", and then out of the other side of the mouth make the claim "I won't get a vaccine because of the government". Its also not incredibly hard to see that many people, in many states, won't listen to the government, whether federal, state, or local, regardless. This has held true in every state from Texas and Florida, to NY and NJ. You guys who want to harp on about the Federal government, continue to selectively highlight narrative fitting talking points, and ignore others. For instance, please explain to me, how the federal government is in anyway responsible for what happened at the Chainsmokers concert in the Hamptons? Or young people flocking to beaches and bars in Florida?

 

So no its not strange that "all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical"....that aint me. Pick your game and I'll play. Just please at least have the credibility to admit you are playing the game!

[cubsfan]

Well, we had an inflection point with this thread around late February. Efforts were made at first to remain objective, but then once it became clear Sanjeev had no interest in keeping this non-political, it became fair game to shoot back at all the liberal propagandists. Off the rails it went, indeed. Lets not pretend its one sided though.

 

HCQ has become a battleground issue...no idea why. NY deaths were Trumps fault. Florida and Texas were out of hospital capacity "any day now", almost 2 months ago... along with their death rates supposedly going to match NY/NJ's "in two weeks", for months now. Most sensible people know most of the narratives on both sides are bullshit, but if thats the game thats going to be played out here, so be it.

 

Boy is that ever the truth!

 

If you weren't in line with the board's orthodoxy - you never heard the end of it!

 

I remember having all the "experts" explain to me why CV wasn't happening in the southern/western states due to the heat.

One of many jokes.

[Liberty]

The idea that it's possible to talk about the US' response to the pandemic without talking about the federal government is just bonkers.

 

Strange that all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical" (translation: Don't criticize Trump) are Trump apologists. Pretty sure that if Obama had bungled things this badly, they would be singing a different tune.

 

Fact is, responses to epidemics are inherently collective action problems, and governments will be at the center of any response, so talking about it means talking about the government.

 

Feel free not to click on the thread if you want to stay in your bubble where the feds have nothing to do with this disaster, though.

 

Except for that fact that, many people, including me, have acknowledged Trump's actions have been poor in many cases. What you're leaving out is your glaring neglect of any other facet or shared "blame", because it doesnt fit the agenda. Somehow, in an effort to highlight how much society has degraded in terms of its reliance on "credible sources", we've gone from "Wikipedia isn't a great source" to now Twitter being the primary go to for many....

 

I'm fine being political, Im fine being "apolitical". Same cant be said for everyone, most of them will likely disappear for good when the new site launches in September. You cant possibly claim to not have an agenda, when 90% of what gets posted has the same undertone to it. You also cant sit here and seriously make the case "government should have encouraged masks earlier, its the only vaccine we have", and then out of the other side of the mouth make the claim "I won't get a vaccine because of the government". Its also not incredibly hard to see that many people, in many states, won't listen to the government, whether federal, state, or local, regardless. This has held true in every state from Texas and Florida, to NY and NJ. You guys who want to harp on about the Federal government, continue to selectively highlight narrative fitting talking points, and ignore others. For instance, please explain to me, how the federal government is in anyway responsible for what happened at the Chainsmokers concert in the Hamptons? Or young people flocking to beaches and bars in Florida?

 

So no its not strange that "all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical"....that aint me. Pick your game and I'll play. Just please at least have the credibility to admit you are playing the game!

 

"acknowledging that some actions have been poor" is giving him massive cover, because it's downplaying the obvious and documented level of corruption and incompetence by a lot. The guy spent months in the crucial early months saying it was a democratic hoax, making stuff up and not listening to scientists, and even now he's planting oppo stories in the press about Fauci.. He never learns anything because he's incapable. Every single plan he's talked about, he gave up when his attention span ran out and there's effectively no federal response to the pandemic, which is probably why it's way worse than the EU or Asia or pretty much anywhere. People are suffering and dying and losing jobs that didn't need to because this clown thought being president sounded like a good way to be a bigger celebrity and have more attention, and that pisses me off.

 

Maybe the reason why I always point out bad things he does is because he keeps doing really stupid and bad things. If he stopped, I'd be glad to stop. I'm not partisan, I'm just pro competence and integrity, and there's a real bear market in those in Washington lately. I'd be happy with any republican or democrat doing the right things, I'd love to have Romney right now, he'd do fine, as would Obama or even Bush.

[Gregmal]

Well, let me ask you then, you had the chance to vote for Romney in 2012, and actually had he won, Trump would never have gotten into office. Did you? I doubt it. If you did, then at least you are consistent. If you didnt, the "I wouldn't mind Romney" stuff is just half measure fluff to veil partisanship. As fake as all the "he was a great person" stuff you see when a person who lived an otherwise unsavory life passes away tragically. Nobody can say, "yea he was a scumbag"(even if it's true), the same way most cant say "I will always vote down ballot"(even if its true).

 

Otherwise, yea, Trump does a lot of boneheaded stuff and caters to headlines and "his base" more than act Presidential. But this isn't news and as I ve consistently said, I think if you guys really believe a lot of what you write, you are sadly mistaken because by and large, Trump, as well as pretty much every politician Ive ever come across, gets a whole lot more credit(both good and bad) than they really deserve. They are largely hollow, leech like figureheads. I dont think Trump is a leech, he has enough money. He's just an attention whore and an egomaniac. But most politicians arent rich and only become so by being a leech.

[Gregmal]

Exhibit A

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus

 

So after tons of planning, consultations with health officials and experts, 113 pages of protocol, the players are simply not listening. Trumps fault? Governors fault? Manfred's fault? Individual responsibility and accountability is just not everyone's cup of tea it seems. While everyone seems to have a big time opinion on Trump, why nothing for the individual? After all, I'd wager some pretty big pesos that I have a better chance of meaningfully determining whether I get sick than any politician. As do you. So....if its "impossible" not to blame the federal government, is it not doubly impossible not to blame individuals given they have greater control over THEIR situation? Greater control over whether or not they wear a mask or get a vaccine... Or would this simply be wading too far into impactful conversation fodder?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Exhibit A

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus

 

So after tons of planning, consultations with health officials and experts, 113 pages of protocol, the players are simply not listening. Trumps fault? Governors fault? Manfred's fault? Individual responsibility and accountability is just not everyone's cup of tea it seems. While everyone seems to have a big time opinion on Trump, why nothing for the individual? After all, I'd wager some pretty big pesos that I have a better chance of meaningfully determining whether I get sick than any politician. As do you. So....if its "impossible" not to blame the federal government, is it not doubly impossible not to blame individuals given they have greater control over THEIR situation? Greater control over whether or not they wear a mask or get a vaccine... Or would this simply be wading too far into impactful conversation fodder?

 

The individuals are definitely fucking this up. Trump has just been encouraging them from a position of authority and a wide reaching audience.

 

Also, Trump being president is in a position to make decisions that positively or negatively impact tens of millions (if not hundreds). Any decision made by an individual is likely limited to directly impacting a handful of people. So individuals are making poor decisions that impact tens of people and Trump has been making terrible decision that impact tens of million of people.

 

[Gregmal]

Exhibit A

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus

 

So after tons of planning, consultations with health officials and experts, 113 pages of protocol, the players are simply not listening. Trumps fault? Governors fault? Manfred's fault? Individual responsibility and accountability is just not everyone's cup of tea it seems. While everyone seems to have a big time opinion on Trump, why nothing for the individual? After all, I'd wager some pretty big pesos that I have a better chance of meaningfully determining whether I get sick than any politician. As do you. So....if its "impossible" not to blame the federal government, is it not doubly impossible not to blame individuals given they have greater control over THEIR situation? Greater control over whether or not they wear a mask or get a vaccine... Or would this simply be wading too far into impactful conversation fodder?

 

The individuals are definitely fucking this up. Trump has just been encouraging them from a position of authority and a wide reaching audience.

 

Also, Trump being president is in a position to make decisions that positively or negatively impact tens of millions (if not hundreds). Any decision made by an individual is likely limited to directly impacting a handful of people. So individuals are making poor decisions that impact tens of people and Trump has been making terrible decision that impact tens of million of people.

 

A baseball player(or any athlete) breaks protocol to go to a strip club(already happened). Then gets the virus. Forget even the whole "exponential growth" thing that many have continuously brought up. This immediately effects way more than "tens of people". Multiple players and personnel get it. It gets so bad, the season has to be cancelled. How many lives and dollars does this "one person" effect? What about the fringe prospect who's 28 and is at a make or break point in their career only to have the season get canceled? How about normal people, someone with symptoms who still goes to a supermarket? Teenager going to a beach party and then coming home to the family? There are indeed big ripple effects. There is a lot that is in ones control, and a lot that isn't. What is easier for YOU to control?

 

Again, I totally agree about a lot of Trumps actions, or lack there of. But you also now are seeing the result of the people who have spent years crying wolf. They used up all their credibility complaining about Russia, the election, Ukraine, Ivanka's tweets, etc...

[Spekulatius]

Exhibit A

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus

 

So after tons of planning, consultations with health officials and experts, 113 pages of protocol, the players are simply not listening. Trumps fault? Governors fault? Manfred's fault? Individual responsibility and accountability is just not everyone's cup of tea it seems. While everyone seems to have a big time opinion on Trump, why nothing for the individual? After all, I'd wager some pretty big pesos that I have a better chance of meaningfully determining whether I get sick than any politician. As do you. So....if its "impossible" not to blame the federal government, is it not doubly impossible not to blame individuals given they have greater control over THEIR situation? Greater control over whether or not they wear a mask or get a vaccine... Or would this simply be wading too far into impactful conversation fodder?

 

The individuals are definitely fucking this up. Trump has just been encouraging them from a position of authority and a wide reaching audience.

 

Also, Trump being president is in a position to make decisions that positively or negatively impact tens of millions (if not hundreds). Any decision made by an individual is likely limited to directly impacting a handful of people. So individuals are making poor decisions that impact tens of people and Trump has been making terrible decision that impact tens of million of people.

 

A baseball player(or any athlete) breaks protocol to go to a strip club(already happened). Then gets the virus. Forget even the whole "exponential growth" thing that many have continuously brought up. This immediately effects way more than "tens of people". Multiple players and personnel get it. It gets so bad, the season has to be cancelled. How many lives and dollars does this "one person" effect? What about the fringe prospect who's 28 and is at a make or break point in their career only to have the season get canceled? How about normal people, someone with symptoms who still goes to a supermarket? Teenager going to a beach party and then coming home to the family? There are indeed big ripple effects. There is a lot that is in ones control, and a lot that isn't. What is easier for YOU to control?

 

Again, I totally agree about a lot of Trumps actions, or lack there of. But you also now are seeing the result of the people who have spent years crying wolf. They used up all their credibility complaining about Russia, the election, Ukraine, Ivanka's tweets, etc...

 

I don’t think anyone blames Trump for the above directly. There is clearly an individual who failed to be responsible here at fault.

 

But then you can ask the question? Why are strip clubs even open at this point with infection rates that high?

 

Can you even keep a sports league open when infection are high? Base rate matter. People are going to do some dump stuff, if you allow them too, but that probably works out Ok with very few exceptionalities if infection rates rates low. In most states in the US, you are pretty sure to get the virus, if you some risky stuff, like holding a party with a Lot of friends at your house or going to bike classes at the gym, or having drinks in a bar.

[Gregmal]

You can play the games if you do it intelligently. I am surprised MLB didnt use the bubble. I have no doubt the NBA and NHL will finish the season. Baseball is questionable, but the one you are very likely to see get cancelled is the NFL. Not only no bubble, but the amount of contact should make it nearly impossible. Let alone the fact that I cant really think of another league with more players who display regularly that they have poor judgment and no self control.

[Cigarbutt]

...

On RCTs, Remdesivir, vaccines and controversies surrounding money channels when bringing a drug to market.

...

Also, in a subsequent post I gave a link to a medium.com article with several studies claiming Vitamin D improves severity and mortality. Its not just one study that you commented on that studied Vitamin D deficiency for Covid. There are even more actually not covered in medium.com article.  I will try to summarize in coming days.

You bring many good points. Remdesivir has been approved for severe cases and through an expedited pathway that will require more evaluations. This is work in progress. It's clear that this pocket of the market needs reforms (improved incentives) but just like the growing sentiment against capitalism, my opinion is to reform and not go in any direction (build on the shoulder of giants-type of thing). When looking at some areas of research, sometimes, one feels like there's a few cockroaches coming from specific areas and the way to deal with that can be costly and toxic. Sometimes, the most efficient thing to do is to move on.

Personal note that may interest some: Somehow, i ended up in specific virtual groups and that results in the reception of virtual invitations to answer surveys. It pays really well. In the last months, i participated in surveys where comments needed to be made about how a drug (coming to market) should be called, spelled or even how it sounded like when pronounced. For Remdesevir, they came up with the following brand name: Veklury. i'm not sure what to think of the whole process.

Note: the post has been edited for spelling errors (there may be one or two left but i have to go; i accompany my father-in-law (who bears very real and significant risk factors) for a test at the hospital).

I wish you and your family the best. I hope your daughter and your dad and your family are OK. It’s very difficult to contain COVID-19 when someone in the family has it.

Also, thank your patience going through the study results. Brandolini‘s law is very real issue here.

Today was a fairly routine test (in a major teaching hospital). For a Friday, the whole place (apart from the emergency room and some other specific areas) looked as if it was 3AM in the middle of the week. It felt weird and may represent some kind of new normal. This week was busy Covid-wise. My oldest daughter's test came back negative but one worker where my second daughter works for the summer (outdoor activity center, which was already heavily impacted by the virus and related) announced that she was COVID+ which means that the entire staff (including my daughter) was laid off, the outdoor center will be closed for a while (during high season) and formal procedures have been applied for tests, quarantines etc. i guess "we" will get better at it but the potential ripple effects during the transition are real.

BTW, going through a study is pretty much like going through an investment opportunity. Participating in a board like this one is similar to a peer-review process. Who knows? Maybe one day we will bet on the same horse.

 

[Liberty]

https://www.thelocal.se/20200730/sweden-announces-new-guidelines-public-transport-work-home

 

Also: New science on aerosol infection vector

 

[samwise]

 

There are many competing theories but age may be a determining factor. This is still relatively ill defined as there are many risk factors but some work shows that age (exponential rise in relative risk with age) is the primary determining factor in most cases. See page 8, figure 3.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2521-4_reference.pdf

 

 

Thanks for linking this study. A 17 million sample with full medical history! Pretty good.

 

I do hope that some of the results are statistical flukes though. So for example, smokers have lower risk than people who never smoked! But the worst off are people who smoked and quit. They have about the same risk as people who had cancer diagnosed 1-5 years ago!

 

You know they always mention the reliability of confidence intervals (19 times out of 20). I hope this is the 1 times out of 20 you will get a fluke. It’s not unexpected in a study that covers >20 risk variables.

[samwise]

Why are strip clubs even open at this point with infection rates that high?

 

So strip clubs are open and schools are closed?

 

Interesting priorities, if true.

[Castanza]

Why are strip clubs even open at this point with infection rates that high?

 

So strip clubs are open and schools are closed?

 

Interesting priorities, if true.

 

Everyone in a strip club is probably already running a low grade fever anyways

[Liberty]

https://slate.com/technology/2020/07/coronavirus-airborne-what-that-means.html

[Liberty]

The *entire* European Union — population 446 million — is still averaging fewer cases per day than Florida alone.

 

The *entire* European Union — population 446 million — has a 7-day average daily COVID death toll of *59.*

 

For the most recent 7 days, USA has about 12X the EUs new cases and 24X the EUs death toll on a per capita basis.

 

It's literally a different order of magnitude.

 

[Cigarbutt]

"It's literally a different order of magnitude."

It looks like it's possible to release a preliminary form of 'report card" for the first semester.

When reviewing a report card, one has to consider attenuating circumstances: natural endowment "I don't have an exceptional talent like my sister", circumstantial evidence "I was sick or was involved in school extra-curricular activities", pointing finger argument "My teachers are dumb", irresponsible comments "The marks paint me in an unfavorable light and are wrong", the irrelevance sensation "School sucks and I'll make it on my own anyways, a deterministic posture "There's nothing I can do about it" or as a priority value system "I work more hours to benefit my bank account, portfolio etc so I have little time to study".

 

Looking at Arizona as a slightly biased example at this point, CV-related mortality looks like it will make it to the number three cause of deaths for the year (note: the flu deaths are reported this year at a slightly higher rate than normal and it is possible that some of those deaths may end up reclassified as CV-deaths when all is said and done). CV-related deaths will also be a significant multiple of flu deaths. Everything is relative and people can become habituated to mediocrity so a way to reframe this in a positive light is to realize that overdose deaths will lose one of the top deadly positions because of the new killer.

https://azbigmedia.com/business/covid-19-cases-in-arizona-surpass-95000-in-july-55-of-total/

 

In the end, a report card is what it is and it can be considered as a potential opportunity to improve if you care.

[John Hjorth]

Everyone in a strip club is probably already running a low grade fever anyways

 

Castanza,

 

You are a naughty boy! [ ; - D ][Actually, you remind me a bit about myself ...]