Investor20 Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Trump knows better than everyone about everything: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/coronavirus-trump-says-faucis-warnings-about-reopening-are-not-acceptable.html Top coronavirus health expert Dr. Anthony Fauci’s recent warning about the potentially dire consequences of reopening states and schools too soon was “not an acceptable answer,” President Donald Trump said Wednesday. First of all its not a doctors call. Dr. Fauci himself said he only advises on health matters, not on economy. But economy has lot of health effects. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/ Coronavirus pandemic may lead to 75,000 "deaths of despair" from suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, study says And main logic presented for Children not going to school is they pass the infection back home. Except that: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/icelandic-study-we-have-not-found-a-single-instance-of-a-child-infecting-parents/ Children under 10 are less likely to get infected than adults and if they get infected, they are less likely to get seriously ill. What is interesting is that even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.
Investor20 Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 New York City area antibody test results show that crucial frontline workers, such as first responders and health care employees, have lower rates of exposure to the coronavirus than the general population, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-05-13-coronavirus-news-n1205916/ncrd1206251#liveBlogHeader Last week NYC study showed overwhelming hospitalizations for Covid are from people staying home. Also Cuomo said: https://news.yahoo.com/cuomo-frontline-workers-tested-antibodies-162530547.html During a press conference, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo shared antibody testing results for essential workers and says the reason frontline workers' infection rate is lower is due to them consistently wearing masks. Thats why IMO, it worked in Japan. They had people go out wearing masks without lockdown. Which is better IMO than lockdown without masks which western world did.
clutch Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Good news for Canada. "First coronavirus antibody tests will roll out as quickly as possible, Tam says" https://globalnews.ca/news/6938888/antibody-test-coronavirus-canada/
Viking Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Get ready for alot more actions like this. Commercial landlords are in a very tough spot... Starbucks asks landlords for a year’s worth of rent concessions - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/coronavirus-update-us/#link-IRDOQGL7NBFNFOTF2E5VL4U3XE In a letter to corporate landlords, Starbucks said it “will require” rent breaks for at least a year in the wake of its stores’ closures from the coronavirus pandemic. The Seattle-based coffee giant is asking for adjustments to lease terms and base rent for 12 months effective June 1, the company’s chief operating officer, Roz Brewer, wrote in a form letter, which was obtained by the Greater Baton Rouge Business Report and several news outlets. “Starbucks will require concessions to support modified operations and structure, so we can withstand this uncertainty together,” Brewer wrote. The letter is dated May 5, a day after Starbucks announced that 85 percent of its 8,000 company-owned U.S. stores would reopen by the end of that week. The company temporarily shuttered half of its stores in late March. “None of us know the full extent of the challenges ahead, but it’s clear the value of commercial real estate has changed,” Brewer wrote. “We understand what we ask of you may not be easy, and our commitment is to be fair in our discussions.” “We look toward the future with realistic optimism and expect, as you have in the past, your support in the enduring success of the Starbucks brand,” she added. Given the scale of the company, the ask will have ripple effects, especially as landlords negotiate with other tenants and may have bankers to pay.
Spekulatius Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Get ready for alot more actions like this. Commercial landlords are in a very tough spot... Starbucks asks landlords for a year’s worth of rent concessions - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/coronavirus-update-us/#link-IRDOQGL7NBFNFOTF2E5VL4U3XE In a letter to corporate landlords, Starbucks said it “will require” rent breaks for at least a year in the wake of its stores’ closures from the coronavirus pandemic. The Seattle-based coffee giant is asking for adjustments to lease terms and base rent for 12 months effective June 1, the company’s chief operating officer, Roz Brewer, wrote in a form letter, which was obtained by the Greater Baton Rouge Business Report and several news outlets. “Starbucks will require concessions to support modified operations and structure, so we can withstand this uncertainty together,” Brewer wrote. The letter is dated May 5, a day after Starbucks announced that 85 percent of its 8,000 company-owned U.S. stores would reopen by the end of that week. The company temporarily shuttered half of its stores in late March. “None of us know the full extent of the challenges ahead, but it’s clear the value of commercial real estate has changed,” Brewer wrote. “We understand what we ask of you may not be easy, and our commitment is to be fair in our discussions.” “We look toward the future with realistic optimism and expect, as you have in the past, your support in the enduring success of the Starbucks brand,” she added. Given the scale of the company, the ask will have ripple effects, especially as landlords negotiate with other tenants and may have bankers to pay. Every commercial property lessee is going to ask for rent reduction /participation in cost due to COVID-@9 impairments. Have some office space where you can’t fit all the people in the elevator at the same time, or can’t occupy your office space with the same density - well you are going to ask for a rent reduction. Same for pretty much any B&M store which are getting whacked by online retailing anyways. That’s going to have quite a bit of impact for the real estate asset and CMBS loan valuations. Ouch!
Viking Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Get ready for alot more actions like this. Commercial landlords are in a very tough spot... Starbucks asks landlords for a year’s worth of rent concessions - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/coronavirus-update-us/#link-IRDOQGL7NBFNFOTF2E5VL4U3XE In a letter to corporate landlords, Starbucks said it “will require” rent breaks for at least a year in the wake of its stores’ closures from the coronavirus pandemic. The Seattle-based coffee giant is asking for adjustments to lease terms and base rent for 12 months effective June 1, the company’s chief operating officer, Roz Brewer, wrote in a form letter, which was obtained by the Greater Baton Rouge Business Report and several news outlets. “Starbucks will require concessions to support modified operations and structure, so we can withstand this uncertainty together,” Brewer wrote. The letter is dated May 5, a day after Starbucks announced that 85 percent of its 8,000 company-owned U.S. stores would reopen by the end of that week. The company temporarily shuttered half of its stores in late March. “None of us know the full extent of the challenges ahead, but it’s clear the value of commercial real estate has changed,” Brewer wrote. “We understand what we ask of you may not be easy, and our commitment is to be fair in our discussions.” “We look toward the future with realistic optimism and expect, as you have in the past, your support in the enduring success of the Starbucks brand,” she added. Given the scale of the company, the ask will have ripple effects, especially as landlords negotiate with other tenants and may have bankers to pay. Every commercial property lessee is going to ask for rent reduction /participation in cost due to COVID-@9 impairments. Have some office space where you can’t fit all the people in the elevator at the same time, or can’t occupy your office space with the same density - well you are going to ask for a rent reduction. Same for pretty much any B&M store which are getting whacked by online retailing anyways. That’s going to have quite a bit of impact for the real estate asset and CMBS loan valuations. Ouch! The virus is causing value destruction all the way down the chain: - retail establishment or restaurant is impaired - lower employment - commercial real estate is impaired (depends on scale) - suppliers to retail / restaurant are impaired; bad debts? - advertising budget cut etc - everyone earns less so they pay less in taxes Its like a recession that is hitting the globe at pretty much the exact same time. No wonder most people have no idea where this crazy train is taking the global economy :-)
Spekulatius Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Leadership: UK vs New Zealand: BJ’s contribution to herd immunity wasn’t particular impressing, emergency room visit and all. I also don’t know what came into his mind we he told his nation on Sunday that’s whoever can should go back to work on Monday basically. That’s kind of a short notice. What is sort of ironic is that the UK had tougher restrictions for citizens during the shutdown than most of the rest or Europe (Germany, France, Scandinavia, France) and yet their results are on par with Italy and Spain’s despite having more time to prepare. Germany and Denmark have already eased their restrictions before the UK could.
Cigarbutt Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Two-part post 1-a study which will satisfy the beliefs of both tribes https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html It's from Spain and many features point to solid work. Some will conclude that 90% of cases have not been detected by tests, implying a wider spread while others will conclude that 5% is still far from 60% (if 60% is the 'right' number for herd immunity). Countries with relatively (still) steady state of new cases: US, UK, Sweden, Philippines, my area... Countries with rising cases: Brazil, Nigeria, Egypt, India, Russia, Mexico, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa... So, one should at least consider the possibility that the rough patch may not be transient and there may be a few Vs in the "recovery". 2-an interesting parallel which shows how clusters can feed in the community and vice-versa https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/analysis-how-montreals-chslds-mirrored-the-diamond-princess-outbreak/ar-BB144o2Z?ocid=spartanntp My area has reported a very high number of deaths, adjusted for population, and most (more than 80%) deaths happened in people living in chronic care institutions. The author submits that chronic care centers acted as many Diamond Princess cruise ships floating right in the middle of urban centers. Retrospective analysis shows that acute policy mistakes were made on top of consequences of decisions made years ago by the host. The urban community neighborhoods most affected are populated by people working in chronic care homes..
clutch Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 "Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic could herald a rise in superbugs" https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/fighting-the-covid-19-pandemic-could-herald-a-rise-in-superbugs-1.4938905
Viking Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Covid is quickly becoming THE political issue in the US. Scott Gotleib has said we are only in the second inning of this game. Hard to see how the continued politicization of this is going to help the US moving forward. The battle against the virus is moving to a new even more difficult stage. G.O.P. Defiance of Pennsylvania’s Lockdown Has 2020 Implications - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/us/politics/pennsylvania-tom-wolf-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage Republicans, sensing a gut-level anger in exurban and rural areas after nearly two months of restrictions, see an issue with the potential to drive turnout by voters in a state where Mr. Trump, as elsewhere in the industrial and Midwest region, needs a surge of support to repeat his narrow victory of 2016. In Wisconsin, also a swing state, the State Supreme Court sided with Republicans on Wednesday and threw out the stay-at-home order of Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat. In Texas, armed men have shown up to support businesses defying government orders to stay closed, an extreme sign of the politicizing of social distancing rules. At the same time, polls show that Mr. Wolf, like other governors moving cautiously and heeding scientific benchmarks to reopen, is enjoying record support, including among many Republicans.
Gregmal Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 So I do recall at one point there was a ton of talk about how "reckless" states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas were with their responses and in some gases, lack of lockdowns. How they were going to be major disasters. And so today, out of curiosity I swung back to the numbers and none of those states are currently showing numbers that fit any of the forecasted descriptions. Why do we think this is?
LC Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Greg - not sure, my personal uneducated guess is relation to international travel. One outlier that baffles me is Louisiana. Here you can check the weekly excess deaths per state, check out LA https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard I know there is a large Asian community in LA particularly for the fishing industry but that could just be spurious reasoning.
Spekulatius Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 So I do recall at one point there was a ton of talk about how "reckless" states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas were with their responses and in some gases, lack of lockdowns. How they were going to be major disasters. And so today, out of curiosity I swung back to the numbers and none of those states are currently showing numbers that fit any of the forecasted descriptions. Why do we think this is? I think you need to look into more detail. I know for fact that Texas didn’t have a statewide shelter in place , but it did have shelter in place in the larger cities like Austin, DFW and is think Houston (not entirely sure on they latter), so essentially they had the same thing where it counts (cities). Being spread out with relatively low population density and without public transport also helped. I think this is at least a large part of the explanation , but there could be other factors (weather etc) as well.
Gregmal Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Yea I am not sure what to make of it. I am now reading about people flocking to bars in droves in Wisconsin, and restaurants in Arizona packed with lines of people waiting hours for a table and keep waiting for the dire warnings to turn into unfortunate realities...but so far, that doesnt seem to be happening. And as it continues to not play out the way many forecasted, it seems the behavior is quickly reverting back to normal. Which of course is great and all if this indeed was blown out of proportion, however if this happens to be premature, it would end up looking unnecessarily reckless. I am against the lockdowns and stay at home orders but also think common sense precautions should be taken when going about one's life. I'd certainly go to a bar or restaurant during off peak hours. At the same time I dont think I'd pack in during happy hour or $1 beer night. Some of the clips, especially in Arizona, are downright insane. People 6 inches away from each other, no face masks, waiting to get into a bar where its elbow to elbow crammed. I guess we will see soon enough.
Spekulatius Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Yea I am not sure what to make of it. I am now reading about people flocking to bars in droves in Wisconsin, and restaurants in Arizona packed with lines of people waiting hours for a table and keep waiting for the dire warnings to turn into unfortunate realities...but so far, that doesnt seem to be happening. And as it continues to not play out the way many forecasted, it seems the behavior is quickly reverting back to normal. Which of course is great and all if this indeed was blown out of proportion, however if this happens to be premature, it would end up looking unnecessarily reckless. I am against the lockdowns and stay at home orders but also think common sense precautions should be taken when going about one's life. I'd certainly go to a bar or restaurant during off peak hours. At the same time I dont think I'd pack in during happy hour or $1 beer night. Some of the clips, especially in Arizona, are downright insane. People 6 inches away from each other, no face masks, waiting to get into a bar where its elbow to elbow crammed. I guess we will see soon enough. Beware the narrative. Just because you see a picture of a full bar doesn’t meant that it’s a typical situation or they all bars are full. I suspect some people just go out and others don’t yet. Any pickup in case numbers from lack of social distancing will take about 4-8 weeks to really show. At least in some regions (Georgia) they have reduce the occupancy to a level that will reduce the risk of spread hopefully. We will see how it goes. I don’t think anyone can predict the result exactly.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask.
Guest Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though.
Cigarbutt Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 So I do recall at one point there was a ton of talk about how "reckless" states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Texas were with their responses and in some gases, lack of lockdowns. How they were going to be major disasters. And so today, out of curiosity I swung back to the numbers and none of those states are currently showing numbers that fit any of the forecasted descriptions. Why do we think this is? This is a multi-variable question but one thing to consider is how regular people react to a situation. Many headlines (and some of the posts here) suggest that the US population can be divided in two but it seems that people at large have reacted in a much more homogeneous way irrespective for whom they voted or the political affiliation of their governor. You will 'see' the guy in Florida screaming "let's party!" but you won't necessarily hear from the waitress, the teacher or the caretaker but they will tend to respond to the virus appropriately and responsibly without ingesting disinfectant. However it's true that a uniform and consistent message can make a difference at the margin (with appropriate policy etc) and what happens at the margin can be significant with a potentially exponential problem. See the Google Community Mobility reports (the results are crude and imperfect but useful i think) and compare states. https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though. We should draft them to do so. Then they can be draft dodgers.
Investor20 Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though. We should draft them to do so. Then they can be draft dodgers. This is a straw man argument. Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood. I have heard minimum complaints about masks. The UN, Stanford professors argument against lockdown is that the costs are more than gains. More people can die than they save. The Harvard Dr. Lipstitch argument (though he specifically did not say he is against lockdown) is whatever one does 40-70% have to get infected. Example of UN argument against lockdown: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7 U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020 You are exchanging lives of on average 80 year old for 8 year old kids - that's UN argument against lockdown.
Liberty Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/ The USA has 5% of the world's population, but ~30% of Covid-19 infections and deaths. Also: Right-wingers are shooting their reopening plans in the foot by making masking a culture war issue. Universal masking/face shielding is one of the cheapest, least invasive things we could do to reduce transmission. Right-wingers: Won't shelter in place to protect life, because the economy. Won't wear a mask to protect the economy. We've had masking by gubernatorial decree here in New York for weeks, and it's no big deal. It's annoying for about a week and then it just becomes part of getting dressed.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though. We should draft them to do so. Then they can be draft dodgers. This is a straw man argument. Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood. I have heard minimum complaints about masks. No, it's not a straw man argument. It is a joke. The straw man here is bringing up lockdown. Whether people oppose masks or lockdown more is a separate topic. The two are linked anyhow; wear a mask and thereby slowing the spread will likely get us closer to convincing others to agree to lift lockdown. Where I live, the lockdown is unpopular and a minority of people are wearing a mask at the grocery store. I live in Trump land where most do not wear masks, and labeling them 'draft dodgers' would help them realize that they are not answering their country when it calls. I mean, the economy is bleeding money and individual vanity/comfort is still winning the day. Masks is more like requiring the hippies to wear a shirt and shoes into the restaurant (the draft dodgers joke).
Liberty Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Focusing on the important things: https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-trump-pushes-cdc-to-dial-down-covid-death-counts
Guest Posted May 15, 2020 Posted May 15, 2020 Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Liberty to drive a car, but not when drinking or speeding and endangering the Life of another. Liberty to enter a public space, but not during a period of pandemic without wearing a mask and maintaining the recommended social distance from others. Why is this so hard to accept? I keep seeing tons of people in places such as the grocery store without a mask. I wear a mask whenever I go out. I don't think people should be required to do so though. We should draft them to do so. Then they can be draft dodgers. This is a straw man argument. Most people argument against the lockdown is about their livelihood. I have heard minimum complaints about masks. No, it's not a straw man argument. It is a joke. The straw man here is bringing up lockdown. Whether people oppose masks or lockdown more is a separate topic. The two are linked anyhow; wear a mask and thereby slowing the spread will likely get us closer to convincing others to agree to lift lockdown. Where I live, the lockdown is unpopular and a minority of people are wearing a mask at the grocery store. I live in Trump land where most do not wear masks, and labeling them 'draft dodgers' would help them realize that they are not answering their country when it calls. I mean, the economy is bleeding money and individual vanity/comfort is still winning the day. Masks is more like requiring the hippies to wear a shirt and shoes into the restaurant (the draft dodgers joke). I live in Ohio and whenever I go out (the state could go either way in the election), the vast majority of people have masks. You live in California (hardcore liberal) and they don't have masks? :o
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