orthopa Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html Viral load seems to matter a lot for severity of symptoms. It's why places like Hong Kong quarantine infected people in hotels and away from family. We may very well find looking at the time line in NYC that staying at home and significantly increasing time in the household was the gas on the fire that put things out of control in NYC. Most peoples' guard is down at home, no mask, no washing hands, close contact. Not to mention huddling millions in a small square footage. Staying at home and not leaving the house in retrospect maybe found to be the worst thing to have done. What do NYC, Italy, Spain, and people of color have in common? Lots of multigenerational families. Bringing thousands/millions of asymptomatic or sick people in the house likely infected those most at risk in the household. If found to be the case hopefully its not employed as a measure this fall/winter https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-home-isolation.html
orthopa Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Good thread by Andy Slavitt: COVID Update May 6: Like many countries we picked a strategy to beat COVID-19. We just decided not to stick to it “It’s a long and difficult road & after we climbed halfway we decided it was too hard and decided to roll back down the Hill.” 2/ #StayHome was a first step to flatten the curve. We reduced the infection rate likely from a number between 2 and 3 to closer to 1. Given exponential math & limited supplies & resources, this likely saved 10s if not 100s of thousands of lives But we only flattened the curve, we didn’t crush it. (And the virus is still there.) And we only flattened on average. In most places, the virus is still growing That thinking boils down to: it’s too hard. We’ve got to open up the economy because it’s too hard to get enough testing & contact tracing to make people feel safe.6/ There are is a major fallacy here. There is no plan by Chris Christie or otherwise to bring the economy back without addressing our public health crisis. The reason is he can’t. Without a credible plan to address the public health crisis, tell me how consumers start buying cars, small businesses sign leases & employers start hiring? They don’t say. They just complain about the “other” position.10/ This may build into a big food fight to preoccupy & entertain us with something besides dealing with the actual virus There is, however, a plan to slowly steadily bring the economy back, but by solving the public health crisis. It was put forward by...the Trump White House all of 3 weeks ago. It had gates & stages & hinged conditions on the ground. But none of them have been met Rather than wait, Trump grew impatient. He wants life to go back to the way it was before the pandemic. He wants the economy growing. I don’t know how to explain it to him but let me try.13/ This is not easy. But it’s not impossible either. Other countries are managing keep people safe & open their economies. (If you think this is because of country size or testing see the 2 tweets that follow) Let’s take a look. *Hong Kong— oh, but they’re an island. Yes. So is Manhattan. Contagion on a dense island can be a disaster. *New Zealand— oh, but they’re remote. Well they had a color coded warning system like we announced. But they stuck with it.18 *Korea— oh but they’re too authoritarian. Actually no. Everything was opt-in/optional. *Germany— yeah, but she’s a scientist. And where did they get all those tests. *Greece— we could never show that discipline! *Czech Republic— but they have to wear these arcane masks!19/ Point is— this can be done. Not perfectly. Not without loss of life. Not with a perfect economy but with testing & tracing & masks, it’s a strategy if you can stick to it. 20/ We had a strategy. Trump gave it a few weeks & then decided “liberate!” Basically, he’s a quitter.22/ One thing is clear. Our government has a higher tolerance for unnecessary deaths than other countries. School shootings, shootings in church, at concerts, in night clubs. People in nursing homes. Meat plants. Prisons. 25/ As @davidfrum told me, it’s impossible to get an A in managing a pandemic. There are no silver bullets. But it’s really not hard to get a B. Listen to experts. Create a plan. Show empathy. Stick with it. It’s the best you can be expected to do. 26/ In all honesty I still surprised that some people still feel like there ever really was a chance to control the virus and stomp in out in the US. The sheer size of the US, alternating areas of density, early silent spread of the virus, etc made it virtually impossible. Testing and tracing on a scale effective in the US is not possible. The size of the US and its population makes many of the things other countries have done impossible. NY is a perfect current experiment of trying to control the virus and MANY people would argue Cuomo has responded the best. The measure put in the place to stop the virus has turned into the reason it continues on as it spreads in the house, and the governor is befuddled. US is 28 times as big as Germany https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/united-states/germany US is 99 times as big as S. Korea https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/united-states/south-korea US is 37 times as big as N Zealand and has 100x the population. https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/united-states/new-zealand Having multiples of land mass and population vs some of the other more successful countries make it orders of magnitude more difficult. If we had to rope off and test the state of Ohio (roughly the size of S. Korea), limit travel, trace etc we would probably have an outcome that was more successful then what we have had. Airports in the US 2180 Airports in New Zealand 62 Airports in S. Korea 28 Airports in Germany 107 Airports are not everything but the CDC just told us the virus spread out of the US across the country exponentially out of NYC. Having 2152 more places the virus could land, in a land mass 100 times as large, and with a population of 270 million more people vs S. Korea is it really a surprise we had a harder time controlling the spread? I think the US will be best compared to China (cant believe their numbers), Russia, India, etc in the end. Comparing other countries that are as small as some of our states with a fraction of the population may not make a lot of sense even though our response was far from perfect.
clutch Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?
Cigarbutt Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html Viral load seems to matter a lot for severity of symptoms. It's why places like Hong Kong quarantine infected people in hotels and away from family. We may very well find looking at the time line in NYC that staying at home and significantly increasing time in the household was the gas on the fire that put things out of control in NYC. Most peoples' guard is down at home, no mask, no washing hands, close contact. Not to mention huddling millions in a small square footage. Staying at home and not leaving the house in retrospect maybe found to be the worst thing to have done. What do NYC, Italy, Spain, and people of color have in common? Lots of multigenerational families. Bringing thousands/millions of asymptomatic or sick people in the house likely infected those most at risk in the household. If found to be the case hopefully its not employed as a measure this fall/winter https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-home-isolation.html The point you describe is interesting. There are spreaders and outbreaks tend to occur in clusters, especially among the vulnerables. In my area, the number of very sick and those who died (people living in chronic care homes) is relatively quite high. The solution to improve (in this specific case) is to augment the number of caregivers and improve disease spread protocols (and other aspects as well). But what do you do for multi-generational families? These arrangements are partly tradition but also economic in nature. Could most vulnerable people 'afford' to be separated? Concerning your last post above, for the country that sent the man to the moon, what do you think of relative performance, when correcting for historical path-dependent differences. Of course, if you're not really trying... My area is just north of New York State (foreign Canada) and there is evidence that the virus originated in China but it had various levels of stopovers before it was exported. i wonder if better collaboration would have made a difference?
Castanza Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that.
Spekulatius Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that. Shouldn’t be an issue any more. For regular surgeries etc, hospitals are open for business. I think some truly elective stuff (mild hernia etc.) may still be pushed out depending on the area. The bigger issue is that some patient fear going to hospitals or doctors now out of concern contracting COVID-19.
beerbaron Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 A startup I am investing in is looking for expert virologist for consultation on how their product may be made to be used for Covid. Please private message me if you have the qualifications and are interested. (Might be small chance, but decided to ask.) What do you mean? Everybody is a virologist these days, look at this thread hundreds of engineers, asset managers and hobby investor debate models. Lol BeerBaron
Cigarbutt Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that. This is being looked at by many (need models and statistics though :) ). {i live in a socialized medicine world and there are costs to waiting just as there are costs for excessive care}. It appears clear that delaying major cardiac surgeries has resulted in people dying while waiting. Also, anecdotally and progressively from more solid evidence, because of imposed shortages and people actively avoiding care, patients tend to come late for various conditions (heart attack, stroke) and obviously this limits the options that could reverse, at least partially, the consequences. The answer will become clearer when excess mortality data will be collected and analyzed. There will be excess mortality from COVID-19 and from the above but it also appears that there will be much less mortality from accidents. i read Spekulatius mentioning that hospitals are open for business but this is far from being the case in my province (especially urban centers). There are many places where a large part of the workforce is either CV+, in quarantine or simply decide to avoid work.
clutch Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that. Shouldn’t be an issue any more. For regular surgeries etc, hospitals are open for business. I think some truly elective stuff (mild hernia) may still be pushed out depending on the area. The bigger issue is that some patient fear going to hospitals or doctors now out of concern contracting COVID-19. This is not true in Ontario, Canada -- they still haven't opened up hospitals for elective or even cancer surgeries, although our hospital beds are empty. There was a report that 35 people died due to delayed cardiac surgeries: https://globalnews.ca/news/6879082/coronavirus-delayed-surgeries-ontario-deaths/ At that point in time, the number of covid-19 deaths was around 950. So, I'd say 35 compared to 950 is a significant proportion. And this only counts people with cardiac conditions, not ones with cancer who may die sooner due to delayed surgeries.
beaufort Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based.
winjitsu Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. To add on, Asian countries (with the exception of Japan) are a lot younger than Western countries as well.
Spekulatius Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.
Liberty Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? Median age of population being higher is a big factor.
Liberty Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html Viral load seems to matter a lot for severity of symptoms. It's why places like Hong Kong quarantine infected people in hotels and away from family. We may very well find looking at the time line in NYC that staying at home and significantly increasing time in the household was the gas on the fire that put things out of control in NYC. Most peoples' guard is down at home, no mask, no washing hands, close contact. Not to mention huddling millions in a small square footage. Staying at home and not leaving the house in retrospect maybe found to be the worst thing to have done. What do NYC, Italy, Spain, and people of color have in common? Lots of multigenerational families. Bringing thousands/millions of asymptomatic or sick people in the house likely infected those most at risk in the household. If found to be the case hopefully its not employed as a measure this fall/winter https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-home-isolation.html It's worse vs quarantining in a hotel. But saying that things would've been better without a lockdown IMO doesn't make sense because of the other factor of much much higher R0 if everybody keeps going to public transit, offices, restaurants, events, etc.
clutch Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems. I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers. My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus. Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter. In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"?
Gregmal Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems. I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers. My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus. Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter. In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"? Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily. But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement.
Casey Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? I can imagine a few factors playing a role: - Can't have the virus if you don't test for it - Similarly, if you don't figure out numbers accurately w/in healthcare system - some populations are earlier/later in the curve, more isolated or more connected internationally - Responses vary a lot by country. Wouldn't be surprised if some are in fact better than USA. - First world problems like diabetes, obesity, heart disease are a risk factor?
Buckeye Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems. I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers. My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus. Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter. In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"? Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily. But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement. Just so that it is clear, Disney Shanghai did sell out, but limited their capacity to only 30% of previous limits.
Gregmal Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Yea it is limited capacity but I'm more concerned, as a demand indicator, with "Sell out". This to me indicates they clearly have room to increase capacity and the people will be there. I'd be concerned if you're at 30% capacity and having trouble selling that. Such as the case with some airlines.
Guest cherzeca Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? I can imagine a few factors playing a role: - Can't have the virus if you don't test for it - Similarly, if you don't figure out numbers accurately w/in healthcare system - some populations are earlier/later in the curve, more isolated or more connected internationally - Responses vary a lot by country. Wouldn't be surprised if some are in fact better than USA. - First world problems like diabetes, obesity, heart disease are a risk factor? officious bureaucrats, like cuomo insisting that all nursing homes in NYS must admit people with positive covid tests.
beaufort Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. I am in the camp that the denominator on this virus is huge, and I have accepted Dr. Ioannidis' analysis and conclusions regarding spread. If his analysis is correct, non rich country numbers will resemble rich country numbers soon enough if poorer countries track the virus as has been pointed out here. The difference is our population will die at a higher rate because of our health problems. For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.
patience_and_focus Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems. I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers. My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus. Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter. In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"? Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily. But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement. Huh? Maybe I am missing something but the denominator for per capita death rate is simply total population of a country (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/). So China and India will show a small number for a very long time unless this is allowed to spread unhinged. I know there is general distrust of death numbers (numerator) attributable to covid but even if/when they start reporting "correct" ballpark numbers in the numerator, the denominator is what will skew and influence interpretation. This is really a very bad metric to compare countries on some kind of effectiveness or other theories on why deaths are higher because of the effect of denominator that has no direct relevance to deaths. It is simply an accident of population growth trajectory.
Jurgis Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu. Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::)
Castanza Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that. This is being looked at by many (need models and statistics though :) ). {i live in a socialized medicine world and there are costs to waiting just as there are costs for excessive care}. It appears clear that delaying major cardiac surgeries has resulted in people dying while waiting. Also, anecdotally and progressively from more solid evidence, because of imposed shortages and people actively avoiding care, patients tend to come late for various conditions (heart attack, stroke) and obviously this limits the options that could reverse, at least partially, the consequences. The answer will become clearer when excess mortality data will be collected and analyzed. There will be excess mortality from COVID-19 and from the above but it also appears that there will be much less mortality from accidents. i read Spekulatius mentioning that hospitals are open for business but this is far from being the case in my province (especially urban centers). There are many places where a large part of the workforce is either CV+, in quarantine or simply decide to avoid work. Definitely. There are still a lot of hospitals and outpatient centers near us which are not allowed to perform many elective surgeries. In fact, my Mom had to have a series of back surgeries for a herniated disc. She had one surgery in early March and he second follow up one has been postponed (tbd). Now she isn't in immense pain or on any drugs at the moment, but it's still frustrating because he lingering issues still bothers her. Not to mention where my parents live there is not a single Covid-19 patient. I'm no surgeon, but I imagine the timing of a series of surgeries plays some type of role in effectiveness, outcome, and path forward. I imagine there are individuals in much worse situations. The hospital my wife used to work at in Ohio has cut employee pay and laid off a lot of staff simply because they are getting crushed revenue wise for not being able to perform elective surgeries. Not sure how widespread this is, but I have read reports of this happening in other states as well. Unintended consequences...truly a shame...
clutch Posted May 8, 2020 Posted May 8, 2020 Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries? We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc. In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age. In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life. Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. My view is it's largely diet based. All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by. While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems. I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers. My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus. Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter. In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"? Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily. But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement. Huh? Maybe I am missing something but the denominator for per capita death rate is simply total population of a country (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/). So China and India will show a small number for a very long time unless this is allowed to spread unhinged. I know there is general distrust of death numbers (numerator) attributable to covid but even if/when they start reporting "correct" ballpark numbers in the numerator, the denominator is what will skew and influence interpretation. This is really a very bad metric to compare countries on some kind of effectiveness or other theories on why deaths are higher because of the effect of denominator that has no direct relevance to deaths. It is simply an accident of population growth trajectory. Here it is without the denominator. I see a similar pattern, still.
Recommended Posts