Liberty Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/dr-anthony-fauci-says-data-from-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial-shows-quite-good-news.html
Liberty Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html the coronavirus is ... probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture. [...] the virus has brought a pattern of deaths unlike anything seen in recent years. Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus. The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture. These increases belie arguments that the virus is only killing people who would have died anyway from other causes. Instead, the virus has brought a pattern of deaths unlike anything seen in recent years. In New Jersey, deaths have been 172 percent of the normal number so far — more than 5,000 additional deaths, compared with an average count from the past five years. In Michigan, the partial death count is 121 percent of the count in a normal year, the equivalent of nearly 2,000 more deaths. These numbers are preliminary because death certificates take time to be processed and collected, and complete death tallies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention can take up to eight weeks to become final. The speed of that data reporting varies considerably by state.
UK Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/swedish-city-lund-dump-tonne-chicken-manure-park-deter-visitors-coronavirus-lockdown
LC Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Thanks Liberty. The NYT article linked CDC all cause mortality data by week per state which I wasn't previously able to find. Undercounting COVID is not a problem I am concerned with. We can infer COVID deaths incrementally looking back. Here is all-cause deaths in NYC: Week 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 1 1,062 1,170 1,351 1,190 1,149 1,279 610 2 1,108 1,106 1,331 1,192 1,126 1,180 1,165 3 1,129 1,158 1,171 1,142 1,113 1,254 1,065 4 1,180 1,157 1,277 1,207 1,110 1,207 1,025 5 1,169 1,116 1,171 1,143 1,077 1,226 1,127 6 1,170 1,225 1,218 1,159 1,148 1,195 1,088 7 1,122 1,104 1,197 1,115 1,064 1,218 1,058 8 1,081 1,073 1,084 1,064 1,152 1,191 1,008 9 1,101 1,087 1,122 1,056 1,173 1,158 979 10 1,111 1,102 1,139 1,066 1,151 1,052 1,027 11 1,116 1,091 1,070 1,109 1,118 1,099 1,031 12 1,383 1,036 1,033 1,071 1,086 1,053 1,082 13 2,675 1,097 1,008 986 1,042 1,071 1,070 14 5,570 1,038 1,065 990 1,030 1,104 1,110 15 6,506 1,054 1,093 1,053 1,100 1,024 1,142 16 4,085 955 1,058 1,038 1,060 994 1,077 I truncated weeks 17,18 as those numbers are still most likely being revised. The real question is whether week 16 is up-for-revision. Hopefully it is not, and we are truly seeing deaths starting to sharply decline. Week 15 in NYC sees 80-120 influenza, pneumonia, lower respiratory, and other respiratory deaths (combined). At the peak we are seeing 5,500 incremental weekly deaths for week 15 - indicating that at its peak, COVID is 55x deadlier than the flu.
Jurgis Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/swedish-city-lund-dump-tonne-chicken-manure-park-deter-visitors-coronavirus-lockdown Perhaps they should borrow some Canadian geese that do this to most parks for free. But go Lund!
Jurgis Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Week 15 in NYC sees 80-120 influenza, pneumonia, lower respiratory, and other respiratory deaths (combined). At the peak we are seeing 5,500 incremental weekly deaths for week 15 - indicating that at its peak, COVID is 55x deadlier than the flu. I think that's wrong conclusion to draw. Flu infections don't hit all at the same time as covid infections kinda did.
LC Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Week 15 in NYC sees 80-120 influenza, pneumonia, lower respiratory, and other respiratory deaths (combined). At the peak we are seeing 5,500 incremental weekly deaths for week 15 - indicating that at its peak, COVID is 55x deadlier than the flu. I think that's wrong conclusion to draw. Flu infections don't hit all at the same time as covid infections kinda did. Well, I was comparing the COVID timeframe, which is why I prefaced with "at its peak". Annually you can probably reduce that by a factor of 5-10. In NYC, weeks 12-15 COVID contributed aprox. 12,100 incremental deaths; compared to about 3,300 combined annual deaths from flu,pneumonia,chronic lower resp. diseases, and other respiratory diseases.
Liberty Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Week 15 in NYC sees 80-120 influenza, pneumonia, lower respiratory, and other respiratory deaths (combined). At the peak we are seeing 5,500 incremental weekly deaths for week 15 - indicating that at its peak, COVID is 55x deadlier than the flu. I think that's wrong conclusion to draw. Flu infections don't hit all at the same time as covid infections kinda did. But that's with a shutdown. Imagine what it'd be with business as usual. And it's not like they'd "all be at the same time", it'd go on for many more months at higher levels.
Jurgis Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Week 15 in NYC sees 80-120 influenza, pneumonia, lower respiratory, and other respiratory deaths (combined). At the peak we are seeing 5,500 incremental weekly deaths for week 15 - indicating that at its peak, COVID is 55x deadlier than the flu. I think that's wrong conclusion to draw. Flu infections don't hit all at the same time as covid infections kinda did. Well, I was comparing the COVID timeframe, which is why I prefaced with "at its peak". Annually you can probably reduce that by a factor of 5-10. In NYC, weeks 12-15 COVID contributed aprox. 12,100 incremental deaths; compared to about 3,300 combined annual deaths from flu,pneumonia,chronic lower resp. diseases, and other respiratory diseases. Fair enough.
minten Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Sweden It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding.
Liberty Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Sweden It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc.
Liberty Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trump-misquotes-fauci-on-coronavirus-threat/
gary17 Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/29/us-responses-1918-flu-pandemic-offer-stark-lessons-coronavirus-now?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail
patience_and_focus Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Remdesivir preliminary data from two of the many clinical trials going on - https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/gilead-says-critical-study-of-covid-19-drug-shows-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/ Some highlights - Study conducted by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (head to head with placebo) - "The preliminary data showed that the time to recovery was 11 days on remdesivir compared to 15 days for placebo, a 31% decrease. The mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8%, compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; that mortality difference was not statistically significant." Study conducted by China (head to head with placebo). Very similar findings to the above study - "In the China study, also published Wednesday in the Lancet, investigators found that remdesivir did not significantly improve the time to clinical improvement, mortality, or time to clearance of virus in patients with serious COVID-19 compared with placebo. There was a 23% improvement in time to clinical improvement for remdesivir compared to placebo, but the difference was not statistically significant. " And the stock market went up!
Spekulatius Posted April 29, 2020 Posted April 29, 2020 Sweden It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc. I think the main argument from the Swedes is that they can keep doing what they have been doing for long time, unlike those nations that are doing a lockdown. The opening of the US in some states where they still don’t really have falling infection rates strikes me as risky, but I guess we will have to see. I think the interesting part will be how we manage to open the schools for the next school year (I assume the current school years is going to be all remote, at least where I live) The state I live in (MA) still has persistently high infection and death rates (in fact. today may have been a record for latter ) which means that our very leaky shutdown probably persists for a while. https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-29-2020/download
alpha Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Tonight on PBS news hour they interviewed an immunology doctor. He clearly said there is currently no way to test if someone is really immune from reinfection and stated there is no evidence to support reducing current social distancing steps etc... Video Clip: https://youtu.be/Zu8YKymgbYg?t=771
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Remdesivir preliminary data from two of the many clinical trials going on - https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/gilead-says-critical-study-of-covid-19-drug-shows-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/ Some highlights - Study conducted by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (head to head with placebo) - "The preliminary data showed that the time to recovery was 11 days on remdesivir compared to 15 days for placebo, a 31% decrease. The mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8%, compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; that mortality difference was not statistically significant." Study conducted by China (head to head with placebo). Very similar findings to the above study - "In the China study, also published Wednesday in the Lancet, investigators found that remdesivir did not significantly improve the time to clinical improvement, mortality, or time to clearance of virus in patients with serious COVID-19 compared with placebo. There was a 23% improvement in time to clinical improvement for remdesivir compared to placebo, but the difference was not statistically significant. " And the stock market went up! The China study did not show statistical significance and it was in patients with severe disease. The NIAD ACTT study (Not necessarily in as "severe" patients, but hospitalized ones who have imaging findings or need supplemental O2 or a few other criteria) did not show statistical significance in mortality, but did show reduction in time to recovery that was statistically significant. Unfortunately does not seem to be a game changer based on the NIAD press release (study hasn't been published yet), but so far Remdesivir is the only drug that has been shown to do something in a RCT in Covid (unlike Hydroxychloroquine/Azithro), so it's something I guess. So the ACTT shows that it works in patients, but not necessarily severe ones (per inclusion criteria at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705). This may indicate that Remdesivir works if administered earlier, before the disease becomes severe. The problem with this is that Gilead has indicated that it takes a lot of resources and time to manufacture doses of this medication (I believe their estimates are to have enough for hundreds of thousands of rounds of treatment this year) and if we are not restricting Remdesivir to only severe patients but giving it to everyone hospitalized, we may not have enough of the drug because that is a fairly large number of patients...
clutch Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 "More people will die of economic fall out then will die of coronavirus: CEO World Food Program"
clutch Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Sweden It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc. Regarding Sweden -- here is an answer from their former state epidemiologist. "I think we should wait a year when comparing the deaths in different countries."
Peregrine Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Sweden It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc. Regarding Sweden -- here is an answer from their former state epidemiologist. "I think we should wait a year when comparing the deaths in different countries." The same epidemiologist said in another interview that compared to their neighbors Sweden has a lot more old people living in nursing homes, which have been locked down but nonetheless seem to be petri dishes for the virus to spread. And I think well more than half of COVID-related deaths in Sweden so far have come from nursing homes.
Spekulatius Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Remdesivir preliminary data from two of the many clinical trials going on - https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/gilead-says-critical-study-of-covid-19-drug-shows-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/ Some highlights - Study conducted by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (head to head with placebo) - "The preliminary data showed that the time to recovery was 11 days on remdesivir compared to 15 days for placebo, a 31% decrease. The mortality rate for the remdesivir group was 8%, compared to 11.6% for the placebo group; that mortality difference was not statistically significant." Study conducted by China (head to head with placebo). Very similar findings to the above study - "In the China study, also published Wednesday in the Lancet, investigators found that remdesivir did not significantly improve the time to clinical improvement, mortality, or time to clearance of virus in patients with serious COVID-19 compared with placebo. There was a 23% improvement in time to clinical improvement for remdesivir compared to placebo, but the difference was not statistically significant. " And the stock market went up! The China study did not show statistical significance and it was in patients with severe disease. The NIAD ACTT study (Not necessarily in as "severe" patients, but hospitalized ones who have imaging findings or need supplemental O2 or a few other criteria) did not show statistical significance in mortality, but did show reduction in time to recovery that was statistically significant. Unfortunately does not seem to be a game changer based on the NIAD press release (study hasn't been published yet), but so far Remdesivir is the only drug that has been shown to do something in a RCT in Covid (unlike Hydroxychloroquine/Azithro), so it's something I guess. So the ACTT shows that it works in patients, but not necessarily severe ones (per inclusion criteria at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280705). This may indicate that Remdesivir works if administered earlier, before the disease becomes severe. The problem with this is that Gilead has indicated that it takes a lot of resources and time to manufacture doses of this medication (I believe their estimates are to have enough for hundreds of thousands of rounds of treatment this year) and if we are not restricting Remdesivir to only severe patients but giving it to everyone hospitalized, we may not have enough of the drug because that is a fairly large number of patients... The problem that I see with Remdesivir application early on is that it is administered intravenously in 10 dosages. So it is only something that can be done in a hospital setting (or equivalent ) and not very conducive to early intervention.
John Hjorth Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 The same epidemiologist said in another interview that compared to their neighbors Sweden has a lot more old people living in nursing homes, which have been locked down but nonetheless seem to be petri dishes for the virus to spread. And I think well more than half of COVID-related deaths in Sweden so far have come from nursing homes. [Omitting the embedded posts by Liberty, minten & clutch, but respectfully not ignoring them, - just to avoid dense quoting.] frank, It's actually true - and very striking : Public Health Agency of Sweden (Folkhälsomyndigheten) - Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Sweden (Antal fall av covid-19 i Sverige). Translation help : Tidsserie: Sjukdomsfall per dag -> Time series : Confirmed cases per day, Sjukdomsfall per åldersgrupp -> Confirmed cases per age group, & Avlitna per åldersgrupp -> Deaths per age group [in the context here : COVID-19 related].
clutch Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 ^^^ Long term care / nursing home deaths seem to be a significant problem in almost every country where there is significant community transmission. And it seems to be irrespective of whether the country imposed a severe lockdown or not. It's just the perfect combination of density + old age, the condition at which this virus is most lethal. In hindsight, not having foreseen this problem could be the most serious mistake made by the governments / health officials around the world.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 I’m actually worrying more about long term damage to the economy from overreaction. Closing outdoor spaces (beaches and parks) makes very little sense for something that spreads via respiratory droplets. Keep those outdoor venues open and force 6 ft distancing...these journo photos that shame beach goers is not helping and is ridiculous. Lockdowns have served a useful purpose. We did not run out of vents and icu beds in hard hit regions and people throughout the country have changed their behavior. It’s time to reopen because I do not think the benefit for further lockdowns outweigh the costs... Trump on Sweden: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1255825648448348161?s=21 Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision! Guess he supported the lockdowns all along.
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