Coronavirus

[sys]

Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case).

 

china crushed the outbreak in hubei province without mass testing and with much less information about the biology of the virus than we have.

 

the idea that we can't, in the united states, accomplish what what many countries around the world (china and most of western europe in squelching raging outbreaks; australia, nz, most of east asia and eastern europe in managing transmission rates to prevent small outbreaks from flaring into large outbreaks) is extremely disheartening.

 

china stopped the virus cold, with a lockdown yes, but also with isolation of infected individuals.  we could do the same, we're just choosing not to insist that our governments take the necessary steps to hunt down and eliminate the virus.  look at what vietnam has done while sitting in china's backyard.  look at taiwan.

 

for one of the wealthiest countries of the world, out behavior is ridiculous.

 

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1254459647068532736

[KCLarkin]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-us-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX

 

Incredible how transmissible this virus is. In one prison, 2028 out of a total of 2,300 tested positive for the virus and close to 95% of those who tested positive had no symptoms.

 

APRIL 2 WHO report:

 

"There are few  reports of  laboratory-confirmed  cases who  are truly  asymptomatic, and  to date, there has been  no documented asymptomatic transmission."

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf

 

Why is WHO so wrong on everything?

 

Can I suggest that the problem isn't WHO, but your inability to read or think for yourself? The WHO bulletin you posted says:

it is possible that people infected with COVID-19 could transmit the virus before significant symptoms develop.

There are few reports of..truly asymptompatic...this does not preclude the possibility it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.

 

They are summarizing the reports that were available on April 2nd. Most of the studies showing asymptomatics were published after April 2nd. The author likely didn't read the reuters article from April 24th because time machines are so expensive.

 

--

This is probably too subtle for you to comprehend, but few of the reports you are referring (including this prisons report) are even capable of determining whether someone is truly asymptomatic (as defined in that WHO bulletin). The researchers would need to monitor for 14 days to determine whether symptoms later develop. There are a couple studies that have done this, but most, if not all, published after April 2nd.

 

There are really three categories of "silent spreaders":

Presymptomatic - no symptoms at time of test, but will go on to develop symptoms.

Subclinical - symptoms are so mild or atypical, that patient or doctor doesn't notice them or consider them COVID symptoms (perhaps a slight change in pulse or breathing).

Truly asymptomatic

 

There isn't any clear answer on what the relative proportions are. Even some people who think they have no symptoms show significant lung damage on CT scans.

 

 

 

 

[Jurgis]

 

Staying away from sunk costs and how 'others' have been wrong before, then what's the implication for the US, in terms of go-forward policy?

 

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case).

 

So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month.

 

Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later.

 

I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June.

 

Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create  a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint.

 

I guess you are saying that we cannot reopen and keep the R0 below one. And that any significant reopening (e.g. one that includes schools) will spread the virus across (most of) entire population if we look at ~12-18 month period.

 

Unfortunately, this sounds a possible - and grim - scenario. Basically this will cause IFR deaths across 40-70% of population. Plus whatever non-fatal Covid aftereffects.

 

I don't think I can suggest a way out unless cure or vaccine or both are discovered faster than in 12-18 months. You are quite possibly right that lockdown with R0 < 1 won't work for 12-18 months. Perhaps social distancing, hand washing and masks after lockdown will be enough to prevent full spread of the virus. Perhaps in US the car culture will be another factor to limit the spread. But I think I agree with you that it won't be easy to avoid bad scenarios if there's no cure/vaccine soon.

[samwise]

 

Sweden:

 

 

 

I think at this point, the Swedes have done OK in my opinion. As long as their health care system isn’t crashing in Stockholm, where the population density is highest, their approach isn’t really a failure.

 

They try to get herd immunity at an acceptable cost (in terms of lives). So far, by their own judgement, that is still the case and who are we to judge otherwise?

 

 

Also, besides that , Sweden isn’t really normal either, they just have a soft shutdown instead off hard one. not too different from what we have in some states in the US.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200424/interview-isabella-lovin-coronavirus-the-biggest-myth-about-sweden-is-that-life-is-going-on-as-normal

 

Their government cannot legally do a lockdown it seems. So they have guidance only. And despite shops being open, it seems activity is down. GDP is definitely taking a hit as the bodies pile up in the corner. If anyone has an idea of their GDP hit versus Denmark, please do share.

 

I suspect (speculate) that not having a lockdown doesn't help too much with GDP. However it means that the government will not offer subsidies and support, and if people don't show up to shop, a small business still has to make payroll and rent. In neighboring Denmark , the government will pay 75% of your payroll.

 

I'm really interested in the economic impacts from Swedens approach.

[RichardGibbons]

For those who argue that more people could die because of "overflow" in hospitals: At least in Canada, its quite the opposite. Operating rooms are empty while cancer patients' surgeries are getting delayed:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/coronavirus/2020/4/24/1_4910699.html

 

Who knows how many of such patients would die because of delayed surgeries...

 

And no, CTV news ain't Fox.

 

I agree with this. In BC in particular, I think they are too slow in relaxing restrictions. It's quite clear now that the curve has flattened, and it's at the point where high-priority operations should start, and lower-risk non-essential services should open (with masks and distancing.)

 

There is no hope in BC of successfully emulating New Zealand's strategy of attempting zero cases, so the optimal strategy is to slowly reopen, and see what happens. (It would be interesting knowing what epidemiologists' arguments against a gradual reopening starting tomorrow would be.)

[Investor20]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-us-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX

 

Incredible how transmissible this virus is. In one prison, 2028 out of a total of 2,300 tested positive for the virus and close to 95% of those who tested positive had no symptoms.

 

APRIL 2 WHO report:

 

"There are few  reports of  laboratory-confirmed  cases who  are truly  asymptomatic, and  to date, there has been  no documented asymptomatic transmission."

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf

 

Why is WHO so wrong on everything?

 

Can I suggest that the problem isn't WHO, but your inability to read or think for yourself? The WHO bulletin you posted says:

it is possible that people infected with COVID-19 could transmit the virus before significant symptoms develop.

There are few reports of..truly asymptompatic...this does not preclude the possibility it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.

 

They are summarizing the reports that were available on April 2nd. Most of the studies showing asymptomatics were published after April 2nd. The author likely didn't read the reuters article from April 24th because time machines are so expensive.

--

This is probably too subtle for you to comprehend, but few of the reports you are referring (including this prisons report) are even capable of determining whether someone is truly asymptomatic (as defined in that WHO bulletin). The researchers would need to monitor for 14 days to determine whether symptoms later develop. There are a couple studies that have done this, but most, if not all, published after April 2nd.

 

There are really three categories of "silent spreaders":

Presymptomatic - no symptoms at time of test, but will go on to develop symptoms.

Subclinical - symptoms are so mild or atypical, that patient or doctor doesn't notice them or consider them COVID symptoms (perhaps a slight change in pulse or breathing).

Truly asymptomatic

 

There isn't any clear answer on what the relative proportions are. Even some people who think they have no symptoms show significant lung damage on CT scans.

 

That is absolutely wrong. I can give a lot of references to asymptomatic before April 2nd.  But here are four examples: 

 

April 2:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/politics/fact-check-georgia-gov-brian-kemp-coronavirus-no-symptoms-stay-at-home/index.html

Fact check: Georgia governor says we only just learned people without symptoms could spread coronavirus. Experts have been saying that for months

 

February 10:

https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202002100010

Asymptomatic transmission of Wuhan virus 'almost certain': expert

 

February 24

https://www.sciencealert.com/researchers-confirmed-patients-can-transmit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms

A Person Can Carry And Transmit COVID-19 Without Showing Symptoms, Scientists Confirm

 

January 27th

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/masks-out-as-japan-s-korea-report-new-cases

the fact that carriers of the virus may not show detectable symptoms has been a major cause of concern.

 

So why does WHO says on April 2nd

"There are few  reports of  laboratory-confirmed  cases who  are truly  asymptomatic, and  to date,

there has been  no documented asymptomatic transmission.""

[UK]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-man-who-convinced-the-swedish-not-to-go-into-lockdown-9qhcc608n

 

Meanwhile, the Swedish economy has been far less badly hit than that of other European countries and is expected to contract by only 4 per cent this year. “I’m not an economist, but the UK is far more affected with more out of work,” Tegnell says, although he insists that he would never want to sacrifice lives to protect GDP.

[Liberty]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not

 

Also, on testing progress:

 

[Spekulatius]

 

Staying away from sunk costs and how 'others' have been wrong before, then what's the implication for the US, in terms of go-forward policy?

 

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case).

 

So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month.

 

Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later.

 

I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June.

 

Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create  a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint.

 

I guess you are saying that we cannot reopen and keep the R0 below one. And that any significant reopening (e.g. one that includes schools) will spread the virus across (most of) entire population if we look at ~12-18 month period.

 

Unfortunately, this sounds a possible - and grim - scenario. Basically this will cause IFR deaths across 40-70% of population. Plus whatever non-fatal Covid aftereffects.

 

I don't think I can suggest a way out unless cure or vaccine or both are discovered faster than in 12-18 months. You are quite possibly right that lockdown with R0 < 1 won't work for 12-18 months. Perhaps social distancing, hand washing and masks after lockdown will be enough to prevent full spread of the virus. Perhaps in US the car culture will be another factor to limit the spread. But I think I agree with you that it won't be easy to avoid bad scenarios if there's no cure/vaccine soon.

 

Yes, that’s my thesis. I don’t think we have the capacity to test and track. It is important to keep in mind that R0 is an average number, but I think the outbreaks are going to be local with R0>>1, if a company or school opens up and probably will be detected only once we have 50 cases or so, given current testing constraints.

 

What we really would need to do is having the capacity to test asymptotic people preemptively , which right now is not the case. Currently, we do not even screen high risk personal (health care workers ) preemptively.

 

Perhaps, the preemptive measures we have taken (Masks, Hand washing, separation ) are preventing high R0 generally, but I doubt it. I do think that the states and countries that are opening up will provide some interesting data in a couple of weeks (4-8 weeks).

[Dalal.Holdings]

A lesson in not celebrating too soon:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/singapore-reports-931-more-virus-cases-total-exceeds-13-600

 

Singapore -- which has one of Asia’s smallest populations -- is emerging with the region’s highest number of coronavirus cases after the world’s two most populous countries.

 

The island-nation reported 931 new cases on Sunday, with the total number of infections exceeding 13,000, overtaking Japan. Only China and India have more cases in Asia.

 

Interestingly, they have heat and humidity in abundance. They also have density though (migrant dorms, public transit, etc).

 

Only 12 deaths which means 1) they are testing like crazy and/or 2) the deaths will grow as these relatively new cases run their course (likely a combination of the two).

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254747293414305792?s=20

 

Blame the Democrats for any “lateness” in your Enhanced Unemployment Insurance. I wanted the money to be paid directly, they insisted it be paid by states for distribution. I told them this would happen, especially with many states which have old computers.

 

Delays checks so he can put his name on them...then attempts to shift blame onto other party.

 

Brilliant--will 100% work on his muppet followers. Donald "I have total authority" yet "I accept no responsibility" Trump.

 

A great leader and an even better puppeteer!

[KCLarkin]

That is absolutely wrong. I can give a lot of references to asymptomatic before April 2nd.  But here are four examples:

 

Did you actually read any of these "reports"? (WHO means published research studies not popular press clippings. Posting multiple articles that discuss the same case doesn't bolster your argument.)

 

Referencing a Chinese case (edit: this is actually the same case as the german case below):

Interviews with the Chinese patient at the center of the case revealed she may have actually had mild, nonspecific symptoms.

 

Referencing a German case:

But the researchers had not spoken with the woman, who had in fact experienced mild symptoms at the time of transmission.

 

Referencing a Taiwan case:

What was curious, Ho said, is that the woman did not start showing symptoms until Jan. 25, while the husband started showing symptoms just a day later, on Jan. 26

 

So most of the cases mentioned were actually mildly symptomatic or presymptomatic, not "truly asymptomatic".

 

In that bulletin, WHO clearly stated that presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission was possible.

 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/mccourt-trumps-coronavirus-leadership-awful-for-us-and-the-world.html

 

 

[Read the Footnotes]

Another simulator from MGH, Harvard, and Georgia Tech

 

https://www.covid19sim.org/

[Dalal.Holdings]

A lesson in not celebrating too soon:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/singapore-reports-931-more-virus-cases-total-exceeds-13-600

 

Singapore -- which has one of Asia’s smallest populations -- is emerging with the region’s highest number of coronavirus cases after the world’s two most populous countries.

 

The island-nation reported 931 new cases on Sunday, with the total number of infections exceeding 13,000, overtaking Japan. Only China and India have more cases in Asia.

 

Interestingly, they have heat and humidity in abundance. They also have density though (migrant dorms, public transit, etc).

 

Only 12 deaths which means 1) they are testing like crazy and/or 2) the deaths will grow as these relatively new cases run their course (likely a combination of the two).

 

One other interesting thing to think about—is the disease less severe in hot/humid climates?

 

It is well known that some of the innate immune defenses of the lung such as mucociliary clearance work better in warmer, humid environments.

 

Lungs may actually be better protected if you catch this in warm & humid climates...the optimist in me wants to believe it, but we’ll have to see how mortality in Singapore evolves...

 

However we should note that Singapore, like S Korea (and unlike neighbor Malaysia) is aggressively testing and contact tracing since early days—this reduces mortality too.

[Cigarbutt]

Random thoughts:

 

-The Singapore experience is telling in the sense that it gives an indication of the potential costs involved for the various exit strategies, wherever one stands in the containment-mitigation spectrum (measures, time frame etc). CV is highly contagious, spreads (mostly) quietly and silently and has the potential to find the weakest links. With a starting population having low immunity..

 

-Testing healthcare providers and workers is a double-edged sword. Confidence requires testing but testing can reveal (based on on-the-ground experience in hospitals and chronic care homes as well as various hot spot reports) an extent of spread that requires massive quarantine. This can result in many people simply not showing up for work, in decimated supply chains of care and sometimes simply desertion of personnel during peak times (in my jurisdiction, for some chronic care homes, it has been necessary to call for and hire people not ready or trained to do the job and the army was even summoned in a few cases). This is certainly an area where non-linear changes can occur at certain levels.

 

-Somebody below discusses the delicate issue of "years lost". Compared to the 1918 flu episode, the age profile is markedly different. In the US, for COVID-19, 3.2% of deaths occur in the 15-44 age bracket, 19.2% in 45-64 and 77.6% in the 65+ category (versus 16.0% of the population). The 1918 episode affected all age groups proportionally and the COVID-19 raises a delicate redistribution question. In a related way (clearly true in my jurisdiction but also corroborated elsewhere), because of confinement? and economic pressures?, domestic violence is on the rise while youth protection signaling is down at a time when it should be rising and this is likely due to a critical missing link when schools are closed.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/richkarlgaard/2020/04/25/living-days-stolen--a-smarter-way-to-measure-covid-19-deaths/#7a1ed9d76184

 

[Guest cherzeca]

this Manhattan project-like group looks promising...no epidemiologists.  only real scientists:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-group-of-scientists-and-billionaires-pushing-trump-on-a-covid-19-plan-11587998993?mod=hp_lead_pos5

[Investor20]

That is absolutely wrong. I can give a lot of references to asymptomatic before April 2nd.  But here are four examples:

 

Did you actually read any of these "reports"? (WHO means published research studies not popular press clippings. Posting multiple articles that discuss the same case doesn't bolster your argument.)

 

Referencing a Chinese case (edit: this is actually the same case as the german case below):

Interviews with the Chinese patient at the center of the case revealed she may have actually had mild, nonspecific symptoms.

 

Referencing a German case:

But the researchers had not spoken with the woman, who had in fact experienced mild symptoms at the time of transmission.

 

Referencing a Taiwan case:

What was curious, Ho said, is that the woman did not start showing symptoms until Jan. 25, while the husband started showing symptoms just a day later, on Jan. 26

 

So most of the cases mentioned were actually mildly symptomatic or presymptomatic, not "truly asymptomatic".

 

In that bulletin, WHO clearly stated that presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission was possible.

No, I did not read each study.  But I read several news articles.

 

February 13, 2020

https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-can-be-spread-by-people-who-dont-show-symptoms-cdc-warns/

 

Coronavirus can be spread through people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of the illness, the director of the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention said Thursday.

 

 

[KCLarkin]

February 13, 2020

https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-can-be-spread-by-people-who-dont-show-symptoms-cdc-warns/

 

Coronavirus can be spread through people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of the illness, the director of the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention said Thursday.

 

Wow! Who knew? No, I mean literally WHO knew. Here is video from a WHO briefing on February 4th discussing asymptomatic transmission:

 

Can I suggest you save your efforts to scapegoat WHO for your Facebook friends? You do realize that WHO has the budget of one large U.S. hospital? It is a small group of underfunded bureaucrats not a wealthy gang of super-villians?

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/26/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-briefings-analyzed.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

 

The New York Times analyzed every word President Trump has spoken at his White House briefings and other presidential remarks on the coronavirus — more than 260,000 words — from March 9 through mid-April.

 

Here are 6 things we learned.

 

First, President Trump's words — enough to fill a 700-page book — reveal a display of presidential hubris and self-pity unlike anything historians say they have seen before

 

Second, by far the most recurring utterances from President Trump are self-congratulations — roughly 600 of them, often based on exaggerations and falsehoods, according to our analysis

 

Third, in President Trump's self-congratulatory comments — we found at least 130 examples — he's always the hero, even as the way he describes his role changes over time. He has been writing his own history of the coronavirus — one that's favorable to him.

 

Fourth, President Trump blamed others for inadequacies in the state and federal coronavirus response more than 110 times.

 

His targets shifted over time — from the Obama administration to China to the WHO — as he's struggled to focus attention elsewhere.

 

Fifth, President Trump's attempts to display empathy or appeal to national unity — about 160 instances — amount to only a quarter of the number of times he complimented himself or a top member of his team

 

And sixth: President Trump has mentioned the growing number of Americans affected by the coronavirus — nearly 50,000 dead as of April 26, hundreds of thousands of others sick — only fleetingly.

[Viking]

We will start to learn more about the impact of the virus on companies and industries. Pretty sobering stuff. Impacts existing shareholders, bond holders, creditors. Also instructive to read their outlook of what the next 24 months will look like.

 

Norwegian Proposes Debt Restructuring That Will Wipe Out Owners

- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/norwegian-proposes-debt-restructuring-that-will-wipe-out-owners

 

...Norwegian is asking the holders of three bonds to convert about $350 million into equity, while aircraft lessors would swap at least $500 million of the 33.3 billion kroner ($3.1 billion) they are owed. The proposal would leave existing owners of the stock with 5.2% of the company -- and that’s before a 400 million-krone equity issue that would dilute them further.

 

...As part of the new business plan, the carrier plans to only operate 7 airplanes in the Scandinavian region until April 2021 to minimize its cash burn, and then gradually resume long-haul and European flights. Norwegian only expects normal operations in 2022. Even then, it expects to operate fewer aircraft and focus on profitable routes.

 

...Norwegian plans an “optimizing of fleet size, including disposal of aircraft no longer needed,” and only plans to operate 110 to 120 jets onces it returns to normal operations, compared with 168 aircraft before the pandemic, it said in the presentation.

[Liberty]

 

Perspective (and zoom lenses).

[Liberty]

 

Asia is scanning people in to and out of every building, and treating their airports like infectious disease laboratories. Meanwhile we are reopening states like “have a go at it, but please be careful, if you feel like it, throw a mask on”. Trends in ~10 days will be insightful

[Spekulatius]

Another simulator from MGH, Harvard, and Georgia Tech

 

https://www.covid19sim.org/

 

Pretty interesting simulator. If this is correct and we lift restriction too early, than we have to pay the piper roughly 2 month later.

 

Personally, I see ourself going down the path of herd immunity and I guess they simulation shows this too. I don’t see a way that we avoid going having the virus go though most of the population, with the current level or testing and tracing in place, with the obvious consequence for IFR rate and duration of the epidemic. I guess we will find out.

 

We know we lifted the shutdowns too were too early, if we get runaway outbreaks in late summer/fall. Perhaps we can manage the outbreaks and keep R0 close to one in which case will still have the virus going though most of the population, but without runaway outbreaks.

 

It will be interesting to see how the different states do in this situation ,as they deploy different strategies with different durations as far as restriction are concerned.

[samwise]

Perhaps we can manage the outbreaks and keep R0 close to one in which case will still have the virus going though most of the population, but without runaway outbreaks.

 

It will be Iger weint to see how the different states do in this situation ,as they deploy different strategies with different durations as far as restriction are concerned.

 

This is NY's strategy. Cuomo was mentioning aiming for R_t in [0.8,1.2]. One hand on the valve of social contact, and eyes on the 3 dials of new cases, hospitalizations, and something else I forgot (ICU?). It'll be interesting to see how finely that valve can be turned.

 

Agree with clutch that the end-state here is similar deaths (area under curve), unless a cure or vaccine is found soon as Dalal hopes.

 

Sweden seems to be managing about ok, with daily cases between 500-750 per day since march end. Although it looks like the peak is rising above 750 now. Thats the risk with trying to control R_t around 1. A bit above 1 and cases will compound again.

 

edit: Sweden data https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ daily new cases chart