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sys

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Everything posted by sys

  1. yes, it's this. the cases are also recent and mortality will go up, but the large majority of cases in their recent outbreak are migrant workers who are significantly younger than the population at large. it makes a big difference. i believe the age structure of those infected also explains most of the low mortality in iceland.
  2. china crushed the outbreak in hubei province without mass testing and with much less information about the biology of the virus than we have. the idea that we can't, in the united states, accomplish what what many countries around the world (china and most of western europe in squelching raging outbreaks; australia, nz, most of east asia and eastern europe in managing transmission rates to prevent small outbreaks from flaring into large outbreaks) is extremely disheartening. china stopped the virus cold, with a lockdown yes, but also with isolation of infected individuals. we could do the same, we're just choosing not to insist that our governments take the necessary steps to hunt down and eliminate the virus. look at what vietnam has done while sitting in china's backyard. look at taiwan. for one of the wealthiest countries of the world, out behavior is ridiculous. https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1254459647068532736
  3. weird that some want to misquote the president to paint his words as irresponsible. he was clearly just suggesting we fill the lungs with chlorine gas.
  4. So, that's the testing half of the numbers. What about the tracing part? Is there some way to quantify the tracing? I've been thinking about it, and have found nothing but anecdotes. One of the challenges is that effectively it's a system with feedback. Like, if you do good tracing, then the virus doesn't spread, which means that there are fewer "high risk" people to test, which means your per capita test rate can be low. This is an interesting discussion, because pretty well everyone accepts after the first explosion of cases, South Korea got the pandemic under control with test and track. So it would be interesting to have something quantitative that supports or contradicts the "track" part of the thesis. I guess one of the other things to keep in mind--which is obvious but tends to be ignored because people are too busy creating things like the 10 Commandments--is that multiple different strategies might work. Like, maybe "masks + handwashing + a culture that does these things when told to" is as effective at stopping the virus as "test + track + lock up people who were exposed". the raw testing numbers per capita are not particularly meaningful, imo. the ability to effectively test and trace is more related to the number of tests compared to the infected population. another important variable is the speed with which test results are available. slow tests are much less effective. this thread is useful in illustrating.
  5. per the data on worldometers, the majority of cases in the netherlands have been reported in the last three weeks. assuming that this is not an artifact of testing, it is likely that the number of deaths will climb a fair bit still. this would follow the pattern observed in the diamond princess and south korean data, where initial cfr's appeared low, but lagging deaths eventually forced them higher.
  6. costco usually has a pretty good price to quality ratio. selection varies dramatically by store, but i can usually find a bottle or two that are to my taste. trader joes does not curate for quality, they sell some good wines, but also lots of complete swill. if you find one you like though, the price will usually be pretty good.
  7. pretty sure no nukes + oil + speak english + milk tariffs + trudeau's little smirk = casus belli
  8. you poor canadians need some nukes. then we could be friends.
  9. i don't think people have explicitly mentioned it, but i think some of the divergence in what people think they need is based on some people estimating what they need to live until they die and some people estimating what they need to live until they die and leave an inheritance to their children.
  10. there was an article in the wsj a few days ago outlining how studies of retirement savings by americans had often significantly underestimated the retirement income of retirees. i don't believe this was the one of the main factors in that underestimate, but in my own case, i probably have enough to retire now even though i would appear to be woefully underfunded by any conventional estimate of my finances. because, although perhaps a macabre point of view, it is a fact that at some point my father will die and when he does, it is probable that i will inherit a portion of his estate.
  11. you are probably correct in your perception that their is greater public tolerance of coal generated electricity in the united states. however, natural gas generation is significantly cheaper and there is regulatory and public pressure to increase use of electricity from renewable sources. to my knowledge there aren't any new coal generated electrical plants being built and that is unlikely to change.
  12. darn. i opened an account with schwab for no other reason. they are actually fine, though. i have no complaints.
  13. energy generation in the united states is moving in the same direction.
  14. schwab offers a checking account that will refund international atm fees when paired with a brokerage account.
  15. to fix health care, that is to say, to make it affordable, there needs to be as many health care workers as there are attorneys in your description. i don't believe the problem is of the structure of payment as much as it is supply and demand.
  16. a couple of border collies.
  17. please don't slander my country, the majority of americans do not approve of trump's initial days in office. http://fortune.com/2017/01/29/donald-trump-approval-rating-gallup/
  18. it would allow trump to say that mexico is paying for it. which, i think, is all that he cares about.
  19. i take comfort in the fact that mexicans can now fly to canada and walk across the northern border, should it prove necessary.
  20. the good news - probably not an opening move in a carefully orchestrated plan to manipulate the flow and reception of information. the bad news - probably not an opening move in a carefully orchestrated plan to manipulate the flow and reception of information. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-first-days-inside-trumps-white-house-fury-tumult-and-a-reboot/2017/01/23/7ceef1b0-e191-11e6-ba11-63c4b4fb5a63_story.html?utm_term=.e2bc985113fa
  21. my mistake. i didn't look at the boa card's terms, just the first post in this thread.
  22. you wouldn't get 3.5% on costco purchases. costco codes as a discount club, not a grocer.
  23. my mother-in-law (in mexico) lives on about $200-$300 a month, i think. probably under $100 typically, but occasional health care and travel costs probably bump the average up to around $300.
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